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BITCOIN - Not a Triangle! Still a Double Three!!!This correction might not be over. We have already completed pattern 3-3-5 Flat Correction, Primary Structure - Double Zig-Zag in Intermediate (W). Then we completed what looks to be a large ABC pattern or Wave X and is developing, Intermediate (Y) - Expectations and Minor degree ABC sequence. A "Double Three" will complete one corrective wave pattern, or there is also something called a Triple three which has a corrective pattern, X Wave, corrective pattern, X Wave, and then ends on the third corrective pattern. Will probably wait and just add more longs to my position at the bottom of the Zig Zag if that plays out. Yes, very possibly around $8,500 ( BTC1! ) CME OPENING GAP *** At any rate, like always, this is not advice, just one person's opinion of the current chart situation. I am not Bearish long term. I am a Bull. A new Bull run will start with a very aggressive and impulsive 5 wave move up. We have not seen that yet. I just have not been able to line it up with a valid impulsive pattern yet. The first target is around $9,100 (As there is much support in that area and where many shorts may start to cover and many bulls begin scaling in long). Other point (retangle green) marks the CME futures GAP and target full fibo 1.236%, or target complete 1.618% to retracement I am not Bearish long term. I am a Bull of Bulls. Elliott Wave Double Three Combination elliottwave-forecast.com Bearish | SELL Levels Entry @ 11100.00 SL @ 12299.00 TP @ 9300 / 9100.00 / /8500 / 7500.00 Bullish | BUY Levels Entry @9100 / 8500 / 7500.00 (or Market Price) with SL @ 5800.00 TP @ 10500.00 / 9500.00 / 7500.00 / 10000.00 / 14000.00 / 16500.00 / 18000.00 / 21000.00 / 25000.00 / 30000.00 / 35000.00 Safety Measures: Moving SL to beak-even when in the green.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by ferGOD
5
Breaking down Bitcoin's correction & my tradesRight now is undoubtedly a time when Bitcoin enthusiasts & investors are glued to what the price is doing. I see all kinds of analysis, predictions (different from analysis), fund managers tweeting horrible looking technical analysis with a MACD and a few unconfirmed trend lines, drive by media reports from their “experts” and so on. To be honest, we are at a point as of this writing that has neither invalidated nor confirmed any kind of directional bias. As I’ve mentioned on twitter, I am not in any trades currently, and for a reason. The question for me then becomes, what scenarios am I looking at? where are my trades going to take place looking forward? what validates what? To do that, I first need to get a handle on what has happened, & what validates a trade for me. Corrective So far the only confirmation of any kind of correction being over is the 3-3-5 structure that ended at 9049. The yellow box is currently unknown. That corrective structure corrected the final leg (5th) of our rally by hitting a common Fibonacci retrace area (first image below). Looking at the overall rally (second image), we haven’t even come close to correcting any of the common retrace points. At minimum I want to see the .382 fib level hit. More commonly would be the .618, that being said the market doesn’t HAVE to do anything. Taking this overall picture, I now look at what has happened in our unknown area in the yellow box above. Coming out of the final 5 leg drive and painting a swing low we see a bullish OBV divergence (first image below). Taking it down to a lower time frame to study the rally up, we see the same div but no real significant spike in cumulative volume (second image). This tells me the rally was correcting oversold conditions & not a true impulsive structure that identifies the bottom of our correction. Taking this information I now want to look at the possibilities of what this is. Seeing a potential 5 impulse structure upwards with weak volume leaves a couple scenarios. At the end of this I will get into my trades and how I play each scenario. Scenarios Scenario 1: This structure is not impulsive looking at this time frame & actually a 3 drive with some long wickage throwing off the visuals of the structure. Really the structure is better viewed on the hourly and every fib level hit perfectly for a 5 impulse structure, but I omitted that for an overall scenario analysis. Looking at the fib retrace point to identify this possibility, I see it hit the .5 fib mark but fell short of a common .618 correction. If this scenario is true, then we should see a break of the low at any time leading to a violent drop to the 1.23 level at 8402 which is the maximum of a 3-3-5. However, this scenario now doesn’t make sense, remember we made 2 sets of ABC corrective moves to begin the correction, corrective patterns that start with a 3-3 end with a 5 unless it is a triangle. If the drop from 13222 to 9049 was wave 1, and this rally from the low was a corrective 2, then this is wave 3 and its minimum end point in a falling 3 is the 1.23 fib extension of 1. That would take us to minimum 6989 invalidating the maximum of 8402 in the 3-3-5. Again, markets don’t have to do anything, but technical analysis helps with deductive reasoning. Scenario 2: Since the above scenario doesn’t make much sense, we look at what the targets would be if the 5 impulse structure coming out of the low was an A drive. This correction currently is a B, and our targets are derived from the AB for the C. If this scenario is true, then we can confirm the larger corrective pattern at the end of C. I’ll get into what that is at the end of this scenario. The A wave commonly hits the .5 fib level of the prior trend, as I noted above, it did. Corrective wave B (our current structure) should be attempting to find a bottom. It has been hovering around the .764 & .854 fib level, these are common points. However in a flat ABC this can be up to 100%. There I have my invalidation point which also confirms funky scenario 1 by breaking the low. Taking this into account, we would make a five impulse structure up to either the .618 (minimum), the 1, and lastly the 1.23 fib level. Invalidation would be at the 1.618 in pink which confirms the bottom of the prior structure (we will get into that in scenario 3). Since the deep retrace level of this B (if we count the wick) then this looks more likely to hit the minimum .618 or 1 fib level. Scenario 2 is actually a big scenario since we are actually confirming a larger corrective pattern called a double combination. We confirmed the larger ABC talked about in the beginning, this corrective ABC we are forming would be the X of a WXY and the first correction is labeled as W. To confirm it as an X in a double corrective combination we need to see a swing high printed on the Daily of at least the .5 fib or any of the yellow fib lines below. Now I begin to see some collusion in this analysis, it so happens that the 1 fib of the C is actually at the .5 minimum of the W move. If this is the case, then at that confirmed swing high of the ABC, we take the fib extension and target 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave W to find our bottom. To speculate on where the bottom would be in this scenario, I have placed the end of X (speculation until a confirmed swing high) at that .5 of the yellow fib. We now can see some potential targets for the bottom that can be refined as the correction happens to a more exact point. Scenario 3: This scenario is bullish overall and that confirmed 3-3-5 ABC mentioned at the beginning was the bottom. Likelihood of this doesn’t seem high as we have issues with volume and overall structure but let’s look from an analysis point of view and identify the confirmation. Going back to the pink line I mentioned in the third paragraph of the last scenario, the pink 1.618 in the image below identifies this rally as a 3rd impulse considering we made a sub 5 in the potential A coming out of the bottom. It’s pretty simple to identify when it happens: If the daily continues upward without making a confirmed swing high to reach that target, then we have a confirmed bottom and the corrective A that I discussed in scenario two becomes a impulse 1. Conclusion & Trade Strategy So yes I get it, using Elliot Wave theory leaves open a lot of possibilities. I applied this as a means to make sense of the market, I still use Ichimoku, the ALPHA indicators and volume analysis when basing my trades, this correction requires additional detail which is what I have done. Also, the fib extensions in scenario 2 & 3 could adjust slightly if we break 9111, this is assuming that is the bottom in scenario 2 & 3 since there is not much wiggle room till invalidation from that low. On to my strategy… If scenario 1 confirms by breaking the low, then I open a market short on the break with a stop at 11120. At this point I feel something is wrong with the overall market & not operating normally. I am ok with a market order as a hedge there; Take profit and management will be done after. However, after doing this analysis I find this unlikely because of the invalidation that is detailed in that scenario. Either way, perhaps I have made a mistake somewhere along the line, if it takes place I’ll be prepared. If scenario 2 (I find this most likely) takes place, as a day trader I will long the first pull back of the rally, I use a number of technical confirmations to identify such and I will update this idea with those as they play. Scenario 2 has a 5 impulse structure in play like the first move from 9049 to 11120. So my long will be placed at the end of the corrective wave 2, with a stop at the current swing low (impulse 1). Take profit will be left open but as the .618 fib level is crossed I will manage the trade by placing a trailing stop with a tentative quantity of double the average true range indicators reading. At this point, when we get a swing high on the daily confirming the X wave of the larger double corrective pattern I will open a short to ride the rest of this correction to the take profit points I will update once that confirms. If scenario 3 takes place then I will be good and in a nice long, I don’t find this scenario likely yet. As possibility, this is why I am not placing a take profit in scenario 2 and rather using a trailing stop. Either way I am protected if I set my trailing stop right in scenario 2. Thats all for now, I will update this as it plays. I trade off of confirmation and currently we have none. The above details the possible scenarios and hopefully gives you insight into the way I do analysis and trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nick_Core
46
BITCOIN Might Be Ready For TAKE OFF! Watch Now!Dear Friends! Let's just right into it. I have tried to identify the complex 4th wave correction pattern. It looks like we have a WXY (Double Three), which consist of first a Flat Structure with B as a Triangle Correction (ABCDE) and then ABC followed by a another Triangle Correction ABCDE. If this is the case we should very soon continue to go up and start our 5th Wave. It's always hard to determine these waves, but one thing is for sure and that is, that the bulls are in control. Here I have used Classical Charting, which show us the same picture. The Right Shoulder on the Head And Shoulder formation is big, why we usually will not see a huge drop or retracement. Also this simple chart tells us that the Bulls are in control. - We have escaped the down trendline - Bullish Momentum - look at the MACD Histogram - RSI looks good (not overbought) - Bullish Volume is again above MA20 - Increasing Global Market Cap and Volume, which tells us that the Market Sentiment is bullish I hope you liked it! Please leave a LIKE, my friends. D4 <3
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by D4rkEnergY
25
EUR/CAD finally reaching key Correction levelOk, so this chart looks like quite the mess but hear me out. EUR/CAD had been following a clean WXY correction and it looks like it's about to reach the (A) Correction on the Y wave. So there are 4 good reasons why the price is going to reach my (A) correction. 1. If you take a look at the red trend line, price has crossed over and it is going to use that red trend line as support and bounce off of it. 2. That blue price zone is a solid support level shown by previous price rejections. 3. Using the Fibs Extension tool from (W) to (X) gives you the .618 retracement. It is common for the (A) Correction on the (Y) Wave to retrace to that zone. 4. Taking those 3 reason, they all converge to the same price and time point giving you an excellent entry to go long. The only resistance that could make this all go to shit is the white trend line which it looks like the price is already being rejected off of. You can see this all play out if price break below that white trend line. Make sure to Follow me on YouTube and Instagram for more Forex analysis and overall knowledge. www.youtube.com www.instagram.com
by CrisBarr96
EUR/CAD (W,X,Y) Elliott Corrective PatternI was able to spot a few key rules for why this might play out the way it shows. Starting from the high on March 2018 we can begin to line up our WXY pattern. Within that WXY Corrective waves, you can find the ABC correctives. I'll leave you to interpret how you see those but I left them out to make the chart look cleaner. - If you look at Fibonacci drawn from the High in March 2018 (0) to the Low in August 2018 (W) you can see that (X) has retraced to the .618. (You will have to place this fibs on your own as well. I have left it out to keep the chart clean.) - Using the Fibs Extension from (0) to (W) to (X) you can hope that price will hit the . 618 retracement and that will complete the (A) wave for the (Y) correction. - The (Y) wave would be finished up at the purple resistance line. This is a resistance that has been tested for 2 decades. I've also used the distance measured from the first (0) to (W) wave to measure the (Y) wave. PS: I'm still very new to this so I know my terminology or TA might be wonky but I hope I get some constructive criticism as in confirming my analysis or showing me a way in which I'm wrong.
Short
by CrisBarr96
1
USDCAD Finishing up the X wave Looking for a big ShortUSD/CAD is about to reach the end of the X wave and it is common for it to retrace to .618 of the W Wave. I'm looking to short at 1.343 and I'm expecting price to reach the major trend line to finish up the Y wave. This is also going to have an effect on Eur/Cad. While USD/CAD has been moving up the X wave, EUR/Cad has been consolidation. Once Usd/Cad finishes going to X, Eur/Cac can finish up it's B wave. I will link the EUR/CAD idea.
Short
by CrisBarr96
BTC:USD WXY Correction 2013-15 & 2017-19 ComparisonSummary: 2013-2015 and 2017-2019 bear markets show a similar WXY count supported by a Schiff Pitchfork lower warning line hit and Fib Retracements confluences. WXY Count & FIB Retracement: Measured from the A wave of the W count, both the W wave and Y wave extend 1.272 in 2013-15 Bear Market. Similarly, measured from the A wave, both the W wave and Y wave extend 1.618 in 2017-19 Bear Market. FIB Confluence: In the ABC correction for the Y wave count in 2013-15 Bear Market, wave B extends .50 Fib and bottoms at the .786 extension creating a confluence at the 1.618 retracement. Similarly, in the ABC correction for the Y wave count in 2017-19 Bear Market, wave B extends .50 Fib and bottoms at a 1 to 1 extension creating a confluence at the 1.618 retracement. Schiff Pitchfork: The 1.272 retracement creates a confluence with the Schiff Pitchfork lower warning line (two standard deviations away from the mean). Similarly, the 1.618 retracement creates a confluence with the Schiff Pitchfork lower warning line (two standard deviations away from the mean). Forecast: Sideways movement to test the median line. More sideways movement to break through the median line, test it and finally break through the upper warning line, test it, find support and confirm a Bull Market Run. Invalidation: A rejection by the Median Line in the Schiff Pitchfork or any of the standard deviation lines or price is unable to cross and find support above 6,400 and/or cannot find support at the 200 Week Moving average as it retests it and breaks 2018 December Lows will trigger an WXYXZ correction pattern.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by tvlester