Less is more...If you don't know me, I have been a trader a very long time. Nearly 25 years to be exact.
Over the years, I have spent a lot of time studying a wide array of techniques, tools, patterns and market sentiment. Lucky enough, the markets have also been very kind to me.
I've been fortunate enough to have two trading books published by large traditional publishing companies. So it's safe to say, I live and breathe trading.
I am going to do a series of posts here covering a couple of key educational topics - starting with Elliott Wave theory.
When it comes to Elliott Wave theory, there seems to be a love hate relationship for many people. Some get it, some see it as not relevant. To be honest, both are correct.
Now before you jump on the high horse "it doesn't work for crypto" - let me start by saying, this is not a lesson on how to use Elliott Theory. I covered that in these posts below;
And step two;
In terms of using Elliott, it's not as simple as trying to figure out each and every move. (this is often why, it does not work.) Instead the benefit of Elliott, is to accept it as a bias tool that aids in understanding the current market sentiment.
We often see posts online about things like the Wall Street cheat sheet. I also covered this in another post here on @TradingView
Where the theory has any real value, is simply to obtain a bias. The market is always searching for liquidity. In order to obtain liquidity, the market needs to attract players for the game.
Now, you have probably entered a trade and felt almost immediately that the market has pushed against you, it's out to get you and the brokers are playing 1 vs 1 against you.
This is where sentiment really comes in.
As a retail trader you have likely been exposed to tools such as RSI, MACD or even dabbled with Elliott and Wyckoff. But the reason the market does, what the market does, is not to get you as an individual, instead it's there to collect liquidity from a crowd.
Elliott wave theory isn't a technical tool, it's a sentiment tool.
So instead of trying to guess every internal and nested swing, you can make an awful lot of money by simply giving a directional bias.
I wrote an article in 2021 here -
About the emotions, I used the Simpsons to get the point across. The general idea is to understand where liquidity is likely to be and use that to make informed trading decisions.
If you have any specific questions, even topics you would like covered, leave a comment below. I'll add to this in another post as part of this series.
Stay safe and wish you all the best.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Wyckoff
GEHC 1H Swing Long Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade
- short impulse
- unvolumed T1 level
+ biggest volume 2Sp+
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
Take profit:
- 60% 1 to 2 R/R
- 40% daily T1
Daily context
"- short impulse
- unvolumed T1 level
+ biggest volume 2Sp+
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry"
Monthly context
"+ long impulse
+ T2 level
+ 1/2 correction
+ support level
+ volumed manipulation"
GEHC @NASDAQ.NMS
Sell Limit 83.59, GTC
Sell Stop 79.59 LMT 80.69, GTC
GEHC @NASDAQ.NMS
Sell Limit 82.85, GTC
GEHC @NASDAQ.NMS
Sell Stop 79.59 LMT 80.69, GTC
#BTC #Bitcoin #Update #Setup 14 #Eddy#BTC #Bitcoin #Update #Setup 14 #Eddy
I had to give an update because many people still don't understand that this is a selling area and not a buying area.
According to the chart of gold, dollar and Dominance Tether, and from Vaykov's point of view, supply and demand, and even ICT, this area and the entry point of 70,000 is suitable for a short position.
Related Analysis & Setups of Bitcoin : (( BTC/USD )) : Check Link :
#XAU #XAUUSD #GOLD #Update #Short #ShortSetup #Eddy#XAU #XAUUSD #GOLD #Update #Short #ShortSetup #Eddy
According to the specific structure of the distribution, it is in the final phase and soon gold will fall to the specified level. (( This analysis is based on supply and demand style as well as Wyckoff and Dow theory. ))
Related Analysis of Gold : (( XAU/USD )) : Check Link :
My Analysis of Dollar : (( XAU/USD )) : Check Link :
MCD 1H Swing / Investment Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade
+ long impulse
+ expanding T2
+ volumed 2Sp-
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
Take profit:
1/3 1 to 2 R/R
1/3 daily T1 level
1/3 monthly 1/2
Daily trend
"+ long impulse
+ expanding T2
+ volumed 2Sp-
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry"
Monthly trens
"+ long impulse
+ volumed T2 level
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction
+ biggest volume Sp
+ weak test"
MCD @NYSE
Sell Limit 261.99, GTC
Sell Stop 250.94 LMT 253.18, GTC
Sell Limit 257.63, GTC
OCO 2A: Sell Shares of MCD Limit at $271.49 (Good 'til Canceled)
OCO 2B: Sell Shares of MCD Stop at $250.94 Limit at $251.94 (Good 'til Canceled)
SBER 1D Investment Long Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade
- short impulse
+ biggest volume transitional extremum / T1
+ support level
+ biggest volume 2S-
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Monthly context
" Trend trade
+ long impulse
+ SOS level
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction"
Wyckoff ReAccumulation Schematic AnalysisPrevious chart got messed up on TV, so reposting with more detailed information..
This daily BTCUSDT chart illustrates a classic Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic, showcasing various phases and key levels critical to understanding the potential market movements.
Phases and Key Levels:
Preliminary Supply (PSY): This is the initial point where substantial selling begins, but the downtrend is still intact. Marked near 67,579 USDT.
Buying Climax (BC): This indicates the point where aggressive buying meets resistance, leading to the initial sell-off. Positioned at approximately 73,777 USDT.
Automatic Rally (AR): Following the selling climax, an automatic rally occurs due to the cessation of aggressive selling and some buying interest.
Secondary Test (ST): The price retests the BC level, confirming the resistance and further defining the trading range.
Phase B - Up-Thrust (UT): This phase is characterized by false breakouts above the resistance level, aimed at trapping buyers before the price reverses.
Creek : A metaphorical line representing minor resistance levels that the price needs to jump across to indicate strength.
Spring : This phase is where the price dips below the support level to shake out weak hands before reversing upwards. The spring is tested to confirm the bottom.
Test : After the spring, the price tests the support level to ensure that the bottom is established.
Last Point of Support (LPS): Following the test, the price action shows higher lows, indicating strong support and the beginning of the markup phase.
Jump Across The Creek: A significant movement where the price crosses above the minor resistance levels (creek), signaling the start of a new uptrend.
Sign of Strength (SOS): Demonstrates strong upward momentum with increased demand, validating the bullish trend.
Current Status:
BTCUSDT is showing a strong bullish movement after completing the spring and test phases. The price has recently jumped across the creek and is currently at the Last Point of Support (LPS). The expectation is for a Sign of Strength (SOS) as BTC continues its upward trajectory towards the upper resistance levels around 73,777 USDT.
Measured Move Strategy:
Using a measured move strategy on a higher time frame, we identify breakout targets based on the height of the accumulation range projected upwards.
Potential Breakout Targets:
Short-term target at 71,997.02 USDT (100% Fibonacci level).
Medium-term target at 90,000 USDT, considering the height of the accumulation range added to the breakout level.
Higher time frame target at 180,000 USDT, aligning with the measured move strategy and long-term bullish projections.
Summary:
This chart provides a comprehensive view of the Wyckoff Accumulation pattern, highlighting key phases and potential bullish outcomes for BTCUSDT. Traders should watch for sustained strength above the LPS and look for SOS confirmation to validate further upside. The higher time frame breakout targets using a measured move strategy suggest significant bullish potential, with a long-term target of 180,000 USDT.
TATN 1H Swing Long Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade
+ long impulse
+ expanding volumed T2 level
+ support level
+ volumed 2Sp+
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Day trend
"+ long impulse
+ T2 level
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction?"
Month trend
"+ long balance
+ expanding T2 level
+ support level"
VZ 5M Long Daytrade Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade
- short impulse
+ volumed T1 level
+ support level
+ biggest volume weak attempt manipulation
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Hour Trend
"+ open gap with retest
+ long impulse
+ SOS test level
+ 1/2 correction
+ support level
+ volume zone"
Daily CounterTrend
"- short impulse
- biggest volume TE / T1"
Monthly Trend
"+ long balance
+ historical 1/2 correction
with exhaustion volume in the end
+ initiative take over
+ ICE level
+ volumed? 2Sp
+ weak test"
VZ @NYSE
Sell Limit 40.22, GTC
Sell Stop 39.89 LMT 40.01, GTC
SYGROUP CONTINUE MARKUPA classic Accumulation pattern of Rising-bottom #2 as mentioned by the late Dr Hank Pruden
As Demand going in by the evidence of Vol (Black arrow)
Price going up
THis is basically an increasing effort with increasing result , always an indiciation of positve demand influx (2nd Wyckoff Law)
In view of that, i am humbly initiated a position as attached
Pure Wyckoff , Anything can happen
**there is still a lot of potential upsde ( 3rd Wyckoff Law, Yellow Arrow)
SLB 5M DayTrade Long Aggressive CounterTrend tradeAggressive CounterTrend trade
- short impulse
- unvolumed T1 level
+ volumed Sp?
+ support level
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Hourly context
"- short impulse
+ volumed T1 level
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction"
Daily context
"+ long impulse
+ above JOC SOS level?
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction"
Monthly context
"+ long balance
+ expanding ICE level
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction
+ volumed Sp"
SLB @NYSE
Sell Limit 48.70, GTC
Sell Stop 47.68 LMT 48.03, GTC
JNJ Swing Long Conservative Trend Trade 14Conservative Trend Trade 14
+ long impulse
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction
+ T2 level
+ biggest volume 2Sp
+ test
Calculated affordable stop loss
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Daily chart context
+ long impulse
+ 1/2 correction
Monthly chart context
- short impulse
+ biggest volume Sp
+ test
+ 1/2 correction
FAST 1H Swing Long Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade
- short impulse
- expanding ICE
+ volume 2Sp
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Daily context
"+ long impulse
+ SOS test level
+ right volume distribution"
Monthly context
"+ long impulse
+ SOS level
+ 1/2 correction?
+ right volume distribution"
Sell Stop 67.15 LMT 67.84, GTC
Sell Limit 69.19, GTC
DXY make a poor highCAPITALCOM:DXY make a poor high, and have potential to break it. i still don't see any aggressive movement on forex right now. but the break or fail to break will be something interesting to be traded.. let's see. noted we have COMEX:GC1! already broke high of 2 days balance.. that will be something to add with ..
FESX & FDAX go down as ES Gapped down Yesterday i watched CME_MINI:ES1! at 5,608/06 area so many buyers over there, but fail to follow through. ES Gapped down on Asian Session. COMEX:GC1! broke high of 2 days balance, and CAPITALCOM:DXY is melting down. Seems Gold is the hedge for the fear right now.
I am short on EUREX:FESX1! and long COMEX:GC1! for now.
WILL CRESCENDO CONT ITS MARK UP?This is a continuation from previous analysis of Crescendo (Refer Link Below)
As price Tightening Approaching the Creek, Supply seems to shrink.
All these occurs in the background of High /Huge Vol of Supply
PRobably this is An Absorption which is on going
(Hallmark of Absroption)
I am a bit concern with the Bar & its Vol on (Black Arrow) :
1/ 12 jun 24
2/ 28 Jun 24
- So far, demand still not showing interest overcoming these area
In view of that, i let the market to prove me wrong
Position initiated as attached
Pure Wycoff, Anything can happen
ITMAX CONT MARK UPThis is an Atypical Re-Accumulation pattern
1/ Price lingering around Buec Area
2/ Vol :
-Demand going In
-Supply Evaporating
3/ Bascially fulfilling all Wyckoff Buying Criteria
Thus, with the assumption that the price going to Break-Out Buec Area ,
Position initiated as attached
Pure Wyckoff, Absolute
**This is a Classic Wyckoff Plotting, Especialy with Creek , which was introduced whom considered as a legend among true wyckoffian, Bob Evan
***Probably the price will reach @ 3.17 before ChoCh (Change Of Character) taking place
SMRT GOING TO MARK UPThis is a pov from Pure Wyckoffian perspective
Few points why i am interested with this stock to trade :
1/ The line yellow marks the transition of from non trending to Trending environment
in which wyckoffian term as Change Of Character (ChoCh)
2/ The zone of contraction , in which David Weiss talks in - depth about it (Introduce by Toby Crabel)
-As pointed by Red Arrow
-This is the point where i iniated my Entry
3/ Yellow Line which indicates the Creek (Introduced and popularized by Bob Evans)
-breaking out of Creek, a typical of JAC (Jump Across The Creek)
in view of that, i attached my position
** Entry @ 2 points :
1/ rm 1.02
2/ rm1.08
Risk always be respected
Pure Wyckoff, Anything can happen
ABLEGLOB CONT ITS MARK UPThis is roughly idea in terms of Pure Wyckoffian View
at the moment, the area in which i circle (blue color), probably undergoing Re-Accmulation
-as evidence by volume : some of the huge supply has been overcome by incoming demand
-there is still room for the price to go up : 3rd Wyckoff law (Yellow Color projection line)
in view of that, i iniated my position today , as attached
Risk always respected
Pure Wyckoff
BTC Update, first time short? Watch to see why..This is an update to my earlier piece from earlier this month, where I was saying I had detected a bearish outlook.
PLEASE don't just sell it, look at the reasoning, and remember to wait for the Change of Character (CHOCH). It's not here yet.
Wisdom: Always wait for confirmation. be happy to miss trades that do not offer confirmation. yes, you can just sell levels, but it's better to be more discerning.