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Wyckoff

LONG WAY TO PARADISEWell, I wish that I could tell you it was easy, Just take the paved road right to paradise But the truth is my friend, the pain and suffering never ends Make amends with medicine, amnesia, and lies The grains sift coarsely through the hour glass And they pound like boulders on the brain All those things you did for fun, Never hurting anyone, Careless shadows in the sun, just empty and lame And it's no, it's no use thinking that you're wrong The past is old and gone It's best to move along and find your Avalon...
CRYPTO:EGLDUSD
by CryptoPummel
1
BTCUSDT Analysis_IS THE BITCOIN ETF EXCITEMENT OVER?Hello traders! As of the October 31 analysis, Bitcoin is still in the distribution zone and is in phase B of the distribution phase according to Wyckoff. The event that the FED kept interest rates unchanged did not create any significant boost but created an important price action for Bitcoin during this period. Excitement over Bitcoin ETF news is over. “Buy rumors, sell news” has happened. Let's come to some technical analysis comments according to Wyckoff on the BTCUSDT pair on November 2: Timeframe H1 (BTCUSDT pair chart on Binance): Figure 1: Bitcoin price has moved into phase C of the distribution phase (source: Tradingview) Events that took place during the distribution phase: - As analyzed on October 31, the price has gone through the events in phase A and is in phase B of the distribution period. - The creation of UTAD (Upthrust after distribution) marked the official formation of phase C. This event was caused by the big guys wanting to check if the demand was still large. And the truth is that all the demand was absorbed, the price shot up to touch 36,000 and then quickly returned to the trading range confirmed for this event. - The possible upcoming scenario is to wait for the price to form LPSY (Last point of supply) events. There the supply zone is weak: prices increase weakly with low volume. LPSY positions are suitable for opening additional short positions. - If the price breaks below the lower boundary of the trading range, the final SOW event will occur. Safe trading! @DVD
Short
by saitama5ever
2
BTCUSDT Analysis_Buy the rumor, Sell the truthHello traders, here is the DVD! Last week saw a strong increase in price of not only Bitcoin but also the crypto market in general. The bullish story stems from market-wide excitement about Bitcoin ETFs soon receiving approval from the SEC. There are many big players in the financial industry who have applied for approval to the SEC such as: Blackrock, Grayscale,... So if at least one BTC ETF is approved, large institutional cash flow will pour in hundreds of billions, even venting trillions of dollars into the crypto market. With such extreme mania, Bitcoin and the entire market have increased in price regardless, and many people have thought that the cryptocurrency winter is over and spring has returned. However, let's sit down and review whether the above is correct: - The FED and major central banks have not yet started the monetary easing cycle. This is the key point, because the era of cheap money has not yet come. Until there is a firm "dove" monetary policy from the FED, Bitcoin and crypto or any other risky assets cannot have a miraculous increase. - Up until now, all the news from the press that made the news last week was still just rumors about the approval of Bitcoin ETF funds. All current buying is based on rumors. Once the truth is exposed like Bitcoin ETF will not be approved or the approval process takes a long time, then the act of selling the truth will take place. Let's come to some technical analysis comments according to Wyckoff on the BTCUSDT pair on October 31: Events that took place during the distribution phase: - At 5:00 a.m. on October 23, a candle had strong buying pressure (price increased rapidly and volume spiked) and pulled down but still closed over 50% of the candle, creating PSY (Preliminary Supply). - Next, at 9:00 a.m. on October 24, the buyers continued to frantically buy more in a hurry. It was also the time when news broke that Bitcoin ETFs were about to be approved. This is when the big guys gradually take profits from the amount of goods they have previously stored. We have point BC (Buying Climax) as shown on the graph. - Because the supply from the big guy is very large, after point BC, naturally we have a rebound in price, which means the big guy can close out a quantity of goods in this segment. That creates AR (automatic reaction). - The price returned to the supply and demand zone BC to retest this zone, 2 withdrawal candles along with a decrease in volume compared to the previous points PSY, BC and AR confirmed: supply is greater than demand. to is gradually dominating and closing their sales volume. Because if there is still a lot of demand, the price increase combined with large volume must be enough to break through resistance BC. At the end of the first ST generation, phase A of the accumulation phase has formed. Trading range is made up of AR support and BC resistance. - Entering phase B, the big guy showed off his abundant supply with a strong downward candle that retested AR support, the large volume here showed this, creating a SOW (Sign of weakness). ). - Continuing in the following hours, the price moves inside the trading range so that the big guys gradually distribute all the goods. Events that may occur in the near future and guide trading: - Phase B has been taking place. However, the UT (Upthrust) event has not yet occurred: the price broke through the BC resistance and quickly closed back to the trading range with large volume. - The most feasible plan right now is to wait for the UT event to take place and sell short. The main entry point is the closing price of the candle confirming the completion of the UT, the stop loss point is above the top of the UT, the take profit point is AR support. Let's wait and see if Bitcoin's upcoming actions reflect the true idiom: "Buy the rumor, sell the truth". Safe trading! DVD
Short
by saitama5ever
BTC Breaks Out from 200 Days Range Bitcoin has been on quite a journey, spending over 200 days locked in a range-bound pattern. But, as the saying goes, "good things come to those who wait." Bitcoin has finally made a breakout move to the upside, and it's got its sights set on an ambitious target of $40,000. However, it's essential to recognize that it will likely need some time for reaccumulation before testing the range once more and forging ahead. 📈🎯 Breaking Free from the Range: Look closer how this reaccumulation looks at 1H time-frame : We are always moving from one liquidity to another For what felt like an eternity, Bitcoin has been trading within a range, caught between certain price levels. But now, it has broken free, like a phoenix rising from the ashes, and its upward journey has begun. 🌅🚀 The Reaccumulation Phase: After such a substantial breakout, it's only natural that Bitcoin would want to take a breath and reaccumulate its strength. This period of consolidation is essential to fortify the newfound levels and gather momentum for the next phase. ⏳🔍 Retesting the Range: Before aiming for the ambitious $40,000 target, Bitcoin is likely to revisit the range it spent so long in. This retest will serve as a confirmation of the new support levels and ensure the foundation is solid for further upward movement. 🔄💪 Trading Strategy: Observation: Keep a close eye on Bitcoin's price action and how it interacts with the former range boundaries. Patience: Be prepared for a period of reaccumulation and consolidation. It's during these times that savvy traders position themselves for the next leg up. Risk Management: Maintain sound risk management practices, especially when dealing with a market as dynamic as Bitcoin. Conclusion: Bitcoin's breakout from its long-standing range is an exciting development. However, it's crucial to remain patient and adaptable. The cryptocurrency market can be both exhilarating and unpredictable, so it's essential to be ready for a range retest and subsequent movements. As Bitcoin sets its sights on $40,000, make sure you stay informed, exercise caution, and be prepared for the journey ahead. ❗️Get my 3 crypto trading indicators for FREE! Link below🔑
by AlexWhale
Wyckoff in final phase please readThe chart reveals that as Wyckoff's principles have begun to manifest, most of the signs have become evident. We anticipate the possibility of further accumulation, possibly another spring due to recent developments regarding the war. However, the overall picture is quite clear: there is a notable price surge on the horizon. If you decide to trade on this, exercise caution, and I will be certain to provide updates. For those considering a purchase, this appears to be an opportune moment to do so.
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by JORDAN-WALLSTREET
1
EURCAD - Wyckoff Spring and Up we goI have split it the chart into two sections with a vertical line. The left section, the bearish move and the right section, the bullish move. To be able to read the chart you need to focus on three things : 1. price location (as far as structure) 2. Volume Wave size and 3. Speed Index Let start from the left: Coming down with down volume waves greater then the up volume waves and price move agrees by moving down. Notice the Speed Index on the down waves which they are on average side without any extremes except one , that 35.7 close to support which means that buyers might be coming in. Mid of chart We hit and break support, and do a false break Right side The immediate reaction after the fake break is a huge up volume wave. Ok buyers are in control (therefore I will not consider the short signals produced by the indicator but only the long). What's confirming that there is heavy buying apart from up waves and the price moving up are the down volume waves. Why is that? Check out the Speed Index numbers marked with the arrows. High Speed Index numbers and price keeps break up = byuing on the down moves Now let's look at current position and forecast. Currently we have touched the 50Fib and entering 50-61.8 Fib area. So there is a possibility to find sellers. Going Long is a bit of a risky but I think price could move easily to 61.8. Good luck
Long
by tdtrdview
UsdJpy Possible ShortThis is a mixture of Wyckoff and ICT ,so bare with me. We are at the end of the phase cycle. We would technically be in PHASE E, which would be where the market trades outside the TR ( trading range) . Now the market is consolidating as a retest to the top of the TR. It will either hold it or retrace back to 50% of the TR which would also be at an Discounted Area (green zones). We currently in premium aka the red boxes. Liquidity BSL is also resting above from last Thurs and this Wed. Would love to see price grab that while going to EXTREME premium, before shooting down to push PRICE HIGHER... just waiting to see. I got more Lower timeframe ICT based markups if yall mess with this one.
Short
by ConsciousFXtheDayTrader
TWT Short Setup : Rising Wedge + AMD🚫The world of crypto can be full of surprises, and today, we're looking at the TWT token. It recently took a steep plunge from a colossal rising wedge pattern. However, before considering a short position, it's crucial to remember that trading is not just about patterns but also about market manipulation. 📊 The Rising Wedge Pattern: Rising wedges are typically bearish patterns, signaling a potential price decline. But in the realm of cryptocurrencies, it's essential to exercise caution, as market manipulation can play a significant role. 🚫📉 The Manipulation Factor: Detailed photo how AMD by wyckoff looks like : While technical patterns can offer valuable insights, it's essential to recognize that market manipulation can disrupt the traditional signals patterns provide. Traders should remain vigilant and not solely rely on patterns. 🃏 Trading Strategy: If you're considering a short position on TWT: Patience is Key: Wait for a retest of the wedge's border as resistance. This can provide a more favorable entry point. Risk Management: Use risk management tools like stop-loss orders to protect your investments. Stay Informed: Keep a close watch on TWT's performance and any market news that could impact your trading decisions. Conclusion: Trading in the crypto world is a blend of art and science, where patterns can offer insights, but market dynamics can be unpredictable. Recognize the influence of market manipulation and trade wisely. It's crucial to approach trading with caution, stay informed, and adapt your strategy to the ever-evolving market conditions. Remember that while patterns can guide your trading decisions, they're not infallible, and market manipulation can add an extra layer of complexity. ❗️Get my 3 crypto trading indicators for FREE! Link below🔑
by AlexWhale
OIL WILL GO TO THE MOON FIRST !THE INTELLIGENCE SERVICE GAME It is IMPOSSIBLE that the intelligence services (CIA, NSA, MOSSAD, SVR, MSS, ISI, RAW, MI6...) that have invested billions and billions in monitoring "every click," every "audio" message left on an encrypted messaging platform (i.e. Pegasus), COULD NOT have been aware that HAMAS was arming itself in preparation for an operation and suddenly became ineffective! So if all the services were aware of the "scam," how did the opposing party anticipate managing this potential stumbling block? SET MOOD AND ESTABLISH THE SCENE BEFORE THE ARMS RACE BEGINS THEN COMODITIES WILL FOLLOW The internal security of a state depends on the quality of services provided by its protecting intelligence agencies The failure of Western services in prediction, but above all, the conviction that the Russians were 30 years behind, becomes glaringly evident. Otherwise a part of them knew it (CIA, MI6) and chose to misinform EVERYONE to sow chaos with the aim of boosting markets and generating demand. I always claimed this difference between USA and Russia in the fact that one are Poker players, and the others are chess players. In poker, it's not just about knowing how to lie, but also about knowing how to raise the stakes or play probabilities to determine the strongest hand on the table. The lack of information about one's potential can only be estimated through a provocation close to the borders; this is the opportunity the Americans seized in 2014 to overthrow the Ukrainian gvt. and repeat what they tried in 1936 by arming Poland (the former concept of the sanitary cordon). How can they switch from a theater of war into another ? Easy ! It is a question of manipulating public opinion as they already did in 9/11 to SAVE AMERICA from the crisis. Generally, we learn from our mistakes to avoid repeating them. And it's during an armed conflict that we delve into history to understand its origins. One must believe that only in fashion does a cyclical phenomenon exist. Without wanting to resort to sarcasm, artificially creating a conflict by using HAMAS to justify a local intervention is truly treating people like fools. The image war is primarily the one that targets public opinion at the expense of the invisible mechanisms that are set in motion, in order to make the 'pill' go down more smoothly. DEDOLLARIZATION TAKES A BACKSEAT, OIL FIRST ! Do not ignore that the USMCA (formerly NAFTA) still remains the largest consumer market ahead of the EEA. What is vulnerable or fragile for one state is an opportunity for another. The composition of teams is now known to all. The G7 against the BRICs, gradually marking the end of a G20, some countries seize an opportunity in investing in newly available areas (Africa is an example). As we observe a blatant loss of the former Western colonies, on which the latter built its wealth, it is entirely normal to see a conservative mechanism at play, detaching/tearing away the European zone at all costs to preserve the development of its own economic activity, much like a dog would defend its stake. From an objective standpoint, the Soviet Union and Europe share a similar economic framework : > A zone bringing together a group of states > Free movement of goods and individuals within it > The development of common projects using different parts of the zone > But above all, a common currency So, It took time to establish a common currency, therefore dedollarization won't happen right away And where some of them failed to stand out in creating alternatives to the dollar as they all got eliminated (HUSSEIN, KADHAFI, CHAVEZ), the probability that the BRICS succeed in this global "decentralization" becomes more and more evident. This is one of the reasons that is increasingly appealing to countries wishing to join this organisation. There is a certain logic if one looks at the geographic perspective of the 6 new members who have joined the BRICS, that it is imperative to secure the area to supply the new markets (Middle East / Africa), and consequently gain full control of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden (part of the BRI). Israel is merely an opportunity for the West to slow down the development of this project ! Therefore, to return to this "small" war of secret service cartels, MOSSAD (and indirectly the CIA) could not have been unaware that Hamas was arming itself progressively, but above all, qualitatively. One might even assume that it was evident to anticipate, following the abandonment of 50 billion dollars worth of military equipment in Afghanistan, just like the initiation of the Marshall Plan for Ukraine in the supply of heavier weaponry, a scenario concocted from scratch to set up this new theater of war! Something tells me that the cancelled cereal deal by the Russians has something to do with it... What are you ready to do at any cost ? www.macrotrends.net No matter the price you put into it, it will be nothing compared to the resources of governments ! In conclusion, not only have you been manipulated in a 'scam' with war images you could never have imagined seeing in 1973, but you will all watch how the price of a barrel will skyrocket and get ready to pay your "full of tank" 5 times more expensive. Russia's deputy PM NOVAK on NSE:OIL prices by year end : "Market sets the prices itself" Why? Quite simply because the geographical area of the conflict is composed of OPEC, and therefore the likelihood of a refinery receiving a 'stray missile' is very significant. As a result, the "Peace Makers" have decided to replenish their coffers to continue funding the production of ammunition... FOR THE PLAYERS : The last week close, before the busy weekend from the Gaza Strip left a gap between 84.90$ and 85.95$. There are barely 0.24$ left to close this one. The experience of 1973 raised the thermometer by over 35$ (from 28$ to 65$) initially, ultimately ending above 146$ over the decade following the conflict. 147.5$ was the 2008's ATH (we know the reason...) 138.4$ was the Russia's SMO over Ukraine, which shows the first attempt to Break the Creek Pull back above 92.63$ will trigger my Swing LONG STOP BUY > 92.63$ | STOP LOSS 79$ TARGET 1 > 147.50$ TARGET 2 > 215.32$ Just take a look of 1973-1983 chart to understand ! I don't make the rules!
TVC:UKOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn6367453
📈 Ethereum's Wyckoff Accumulation 📈Understanding Wyckoff Patterns: A Brief Overview Richard D. Wyckoff's trading methodologies have stood the test of time. These patterns are characterized by phases of accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. Ethereum's 4H Chart: A Wyckoff Tale On Ethereum's 4H chart, we see signs of accumulation, where smart money starts buying. The next phase could be marked by manipulation, with price swings often seen as tests. Following this, distribution may occur as the price rises to a certain level. The Anticipated Outcome: A Bullish Move Wyckoff patterns often conclude with a bullish move. Traders are eyeing this setup for a potential uptrend in Ethereum's price. Trading Strategy: Navigating the Wyckoff Path Traders may consider entering or adding to positions during accumulation. Caution is advised during the manipulation phase, as price swings can be volatile. Distribution may be a signal for some traders to take profits. Conclusion: Wyckoff Wisdom on Ethereum's Journey Understanding chart patterns like Wyckoff can provide valuable insights into market dynamics. Ethereum's 4H chart currently reflects this classic pattern. While it suggests potential upward movement, traders should always exercise caution and use risk management strategies. Crypto markets are known for their volatility, so stay informed, adapt to changing conditions, and trade wisely. As we watch Ethereum's Wyckoff-style journey unfold, remember that trading is both an art and a science, and every move should be calculated. 📊🚀🌐 ❗See related ideas below❗ Don't forget to like, share, and leave your thoughts in the comments! 💚🚀💚
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
1
XAUUSD: Accumulation Ahead of NFP Data!Gold price is in a slightly bearish phase, staying below $1,820 due to the impact of the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond, which is above 4.7%. This situation makes it difficult for XAU/USD to undertake a significant recovery. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a bearish trend for XAU/USD, with indicators showing an abundance of sell signals in heavily oversold territory, without signs of downward exhaustion. The momentum indicator is accelerating downward, reaching around 94, while the relative strength index (RSI) is at 18. Meanwhile, moving averages confirm the bearish strength, well above the current level, highlighting the sellers' dominance. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, the risk of further declines is evident. A simple 20-day moving average acts as dynamic resistance around $1,824.10. This indicates that XAU/USD is under the control of sellers, as confirmed by technical indicators that turned downward after a temporary correction in negative levels, reflecting the lack of interest from buyers despite the extremely oversold condition of the US dollar. Regarding support and resistance levels, it is expected that gold may find support at $1,804.70, $1,792.10, and $1,779.85, while it may encounter resistance at $1,824.10, $1,833.35, and $1,845.20. The spot price of gold is touching new multi-month lows, reaching $1,813 per troy ounce. Despite the extremely oversold conditions of the US dollar, the precious metal fails to attract buyers. The market is concerned about persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labor market, which could lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to further monetary restrictions, with the consequent risk of an economic recession. Hawkish comments from Fed officials this week and mixed signals from the employment sector keep these concerns alive, awaiting the Nonfarm Payrolls report for September. It is expected that 178,000 new jobs will be added in the month, while the unemployment rate is expected to contract from 3.8% to 3.7%. Before the event, US Treasury yields have slightly stabilized after reaching historical peaks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is currently at 4.72%, slightly down from a 16-year high of 4.88%, while the 2-year note offers 5.02% after soaring to 5.20% in mid-September. Lower yields prevent the US dollar from rallying in the short term. Furthermore, at the 1916 level, it seems that the price is accumulating for an imminent rise or fall. At the moment, my view is still long, with the price in the buy zone. It will be crucial to assess tomorrow's NFP data, which will definitely shake a price that has been too stagnant for days. Let me know what you think. Happy trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Wyckoff Nasdaq - explainedI have posted the picture to a full Wyckoff schematic on the top right of the chart! Notice that we are currently at what could be considered the sign of weakness in phase B and could rally to the high of the range on this trend break! You can see the support of the entire consolidation can be formed off of the point we are at. Phase A outlines the support and resistance and it formed accurately as you can see! the remaining points in the schematic are definitely to be considered, however this market environment has been known to form phase A very clearly and other points and phases sometimes can seem exaggerated or falter in the following phases so I will be watching for common similarities with recent wyckoff playouts on the short term as well! Notice the arrows pointing to the blue and white line, I am very interested in returning to it on the short term, readjusting the position size at that time may be of interest! A break of the red yellow can invite a retest, this could be part of the relationship with the blue and white line! Although the current point in the schematic suggests a move to the upside, the entire pattern itself is known to reverse momentum and break the existing trend on phase E, In this case it is a daily chart and can mean a very long term process so it can take some time to progress through to phase E! I will consider the phases as they form and I encourage you to track this with me!
SKILLING:US100
by LegatusTrading
SILVER – 30$ COULD BE JUST AN APPETIZERObviously the re-accumulation is done. NASDAQ:XAG has found its Climax around 14$, played in Phase B for 6 years with an attempt to 21$ thus creating an UpThrust, till “COVID”, where price collapsed to 11$, found “some” buyers that sent price to the opposite direction. As you can see JAC is obvious ; BU seems to be done as well, bullish divergence confirmed. This “b shape” is clearly identified, with a SOS scenario definitely confirmed, 30$ seems to be just an appetizer. If we zoom out on a bigger TF, it looks like MM rushed out PA for 6 years before it re-integrated the Fork, kissed the Mid Range (what we called JAC), sitting on the “Preliminary supply” (what we call the UpThrust). What next ? Little flashback. 2022 was a year of sharp contrasts between silver’s fundamentals and institutional investor attitudes towards the metal; while the silver market saw what may well have been the largest deficit on record, professional investors were indifferent or bearish for much of the year. This year was not lost for Bears. blacksquare.finance The downward pressure on silver prices from this further boosted physical demand. This was perhaps most pronounced in India, where on top of already exceptionally strong demand, low prices encouraged the entire supply chain to replenish its stocks. This followed two pandemic-hit years of inventory draw-downs. There were other, price agnostic, drivers of demand growth last year. Most notable among these was the strength of industrial fabrication, in large part linked to the robust solar industry, but also reflecting a postpandemic recovery in a number of other markets. Indeed, were it not for China’s zero-COVID policies, global silver demand would have likely been even greater than the all-time high of 1,242.4Moz (38,643t) it realized in 2022. A lack of supply gains was another factor contributing to last year’s deficit. Limited organic growth, project delays and disruptions resulted in a marginal decline in mine production while recycling barely rose. All this culminated in a 237.7Moz (7,393t) deficit, most likely also an all-time record. (There is some uncertainty, as differences in definitions, coverage and methodology between Metals Focus and past data providers to the Silver Institute complicate comparing balances over the past few decades.) Importantly, the combined 2021 and 2022 deficits more than offset the cumulative surpluses of the previous 11 years. blacksquare.finance India WSS published last year a Changing Landscape of Indian Investment. India was currently the world’s third largest silver physical investment market after the US and Germany. The bar market in particular has been extremely successful, with around 500Moz (16,000t) bought cumulatively over the last 10 years. This partly reflects a lack of other silver investment vehicles, such as ETPs and digital products, both of which are available in the Indian gold market. For instance, digital gold was introduced in 2016, while mutual funds first launched gold ETPs in 2007. That said, the silver investment market is slowly changing, with digital silver and silver ETPs both launched last year. Looking at these themes in more detail, the growing popularity of e-commerce apps has meant that the likes of Amazon and Flipkart have been selling silver bars online, which can be physically delivered. However, holding physical silver comes with space constraints and security issues. To address these points, digital silver was launched by DIGIGOLD and Kredx; more will no doubt follow should their popularity grow. These allow silver to be bought online, and then have it stored in a vault. Once purchased, the silver can be sold directly for cash, or redeemed in physical form. In addition, the ability to invest as little as one rupee, the ease of transacting, transparency, and the ability to buy/sell at any time make it an attractive product. That apart, in 2021 the Securities and Exchange Board of India, the securities and commodities market regulator, allowed the launch of silver ETPs. Although several mutual funds issued silver ETPs, three are active, Aditya Birla Sun Life, Nippon India and ICICI Prudential, with a combined AUM of Rs 6.3bn ($82m) as of February 2022. Silver ETP fund-of-funds (a fund that invests in its own ETP) were also launched by Nippon India and Aditya Birla Sun Life. Other asset management companies have also filed scheme information documents (SIDs) to launch ETPs. Even though these products are relatively new, as retail investors become more comfortable with them and as financial literacy improves, we expect such products to become more popular. Although there will be some market share loss for bar demand (religious motives drive coin purchases), ultimately, we expect total Indian silver investment to grow. Russia-Ukraine Among the key drivers of the silver price in 2022 was the jump in geopolitical concerns following the start of the Russia-Ukraine SMO. This in turn exacerbated inflationary pressures as commodity prices soared, particularly in the energy complex. Likewise Cryptoassets, precious metals investment continued to benefit from nominal rates still being low and real rates negative at the beginning of the year. This, combined with worries about stagflation or even a recession, kept price expectations positive and in turn encouraged retail investors to buy hard assets including physical silver. The steep decline in LBMA silver stocks, along with the phenomenal jump in Indian silver imports, also gained much attention last year, contributing to the positive retail sentiment. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine issue in early 2022 initially benefited both gold and silver; the gold/silver ratio was stable in a 75-80 range for much of Q1. Precious metals came under pressure, however, from late April as aggressive rate hikes by the Fed pushed the US dollar and Treasury yields higher. This raised the cost of holding precious metals for institutional investors and, with silver’s higher beta, the ratio widened to over 85. Expectations of sharply higher interest rates in the US were also joined by growing recessionary concerns and this fueled more underperformance by silver, as the metal suffered both as a precious and an industrial commodity. These pressures saw the gold/silver ratio touching 95 by September. A pullback to back below 80 then emerged towards the end of the year amid expectations that the Fed would slow its pace of rate hikes. Silver underperformed early on in 2023 despite tailwinds from China’s re-opening and the benefit provided to industrial metals as expectations that the Fed would adopt a more dovish stance encouraged investors to buy into gold. Amid all this, institutional and retail investment sentiment diverged at times during 2022. Geopolitical uncertainties, concerns about growth and inflation, all supported retail interest throughout the year. This was especially true when professional activity weighed on silver, as retail investors, particularly in North America and Europe, took advantage of ensuing low prices to purchase silver coins and bars, pushing combined sales in these two regions to the highest total in Metals Focus’ series. Indian physical investment saw a stunning recovery after two-years of below par demand, as lower prices and investment holdings starting the year at a low level led to renewed buying. blacksquare.finance Mexico – The Catalyst. Mexico just reported its steepest decline in annual production of silver in 4 years, which is notably worse than during the Covid lockdowns. Not forget that Mexico is by far the largest producer of the metal in the world today. The supply of silver remains remarkably constrained, and if this is indeed the beginning of another gold cycle, the metal could be worth multiples of its current price. Otavio (Tavi) Costa (CRESCAT CAPITAL) confirmed that Gold is about to reach record prices on a monthly basis. If historical correlations matter, it is hard to believe silver won’t follow the same path. That alone would imply a 110% return from its current levels. Relative to M2 money supply, silver remains one of the cheapest tangible assets in markets today. If the current inflationary issues prove to be structural, we are likely entering a secular bull market for precious metals. Key Level If we consider this a failed structure, it is no less that PA is out of the Fork (MarkDown). What we have consider as a BackUp few charts above, could be called a Spring, with a pull back on the MidRange (as luck would have it on 0.618 Fibo18 retracement!) – LPS. And once again, it JAC, plus 3 taps on 0.618. With the reduce of the volume, could be a Sign of the insistence to break it definitely. Mid Range might be the 1st Target, 50$ the second. 26.9$ (VAH19 might be the Key) If it happen, the journey still remains long. This is not crypto, this is a commodity. Even if PA has re-integrated the range, it currently trading below the POC20 (23.89$). 26.9$ (VAH) should be broken. This will confirm a definitive exit and here the “Creek” (BU) could be the LPS before take off to 30$. If it fail with a clear re-integration, it should drop below 20$ to confirm any Bear scenario.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn6367453
Understanding Bitcoin Price MovementUnderstanding Bitcoin Price Movement through Wyckoff's Theory Richard Wyckoff, a legendary figure in the world of trading, left us with invaluable insights into price action and market behavior. His principles, outlined in "Charting the Stock Market," lay the foundation for understanding how markets move. Let's delve into two pivotal rules from Wyckoff's playbook: Rule 1: The Market's Unique Behavior Wyckoff's first rule reminds us that the market is a dynamic entity. It never repeats the same price action exactly as in the past. Each moment in the market is distinct, shaped by a multitude of factors. Recognizing this uniqueness is essential. Rule 2: Comparative Analysis The second rule dovetails with the first. It emphasizes that the true analytical value lies in comparing current price action with historical behavior. By drawing parallels and contrasts, we can extract meaningful insights into market trends. These two rules serve as the cornerstone for comprehending the Wyckoff Market Cycle theory, which remains influential in modern trading practices. Wyckoff Market Cycle Theory Wyckoff introduced a groundbreaking theory based on price action, defining four distinct stages within a price cycle: 1. Accumulation Phase In this initial stage, institutional demand rises, and bulls begin to assert control. However, price action remains relatively flat, resembling a range-bound structure. Identifying higher lows within this range signals the Accumulation phase, hinting at an impending bullish move. 2. Markup Phase The second stage, Markup, sees bulls gaining enough momentum to breach the upper boundary of the range. This breakthrough signifies the emergence of a bullish trend. 3. Distribution Phase Distribution is the third stage, characterized by bears attempting to regain control. Much like the Accumulation phase, price action remains flat, but with a different twist. The sustained failure to establish higher bottoms hints at a looming selloff, depicted by lower tops. 4. Markdown Phase The final stage, Markdown, marks the onset of a downtrend following the Distribution phase. It signifies that bears have gained the upper hand, driving prices lower. Confirmation of the Markdown occurs when price action breaks below the lower boundary of the horizontal distribution channel on the chart. The beauty of Wyckoff's theory is its cyclical nature. After the Markdown phase, the entire process restarts with Accumulation, offering traders a framework to navigate the complexities of Bitcoin price movement. Understanding these principles allows us to discern patterns in Bitcoin's price action and make more informed trading decisions. By embracing the wisdom of Richard Wyckoff, we can navigate the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency trading. 🫶 Thanks for Your attention, sincerely yours, Kateryna. Wishing You successful trades and unforgettable adventures in the world of cryptocurrencies and the financial market!
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by RocketBomb
7