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Wyckoff

USDJPY accumulation in a trading rangeWe may have seen a low volume spring on the USDJPY today too. If you had the capital and the tolerance for holding risk over the weekend, this may be the trade for you. However, if this is an accumulation phase, this is the start of a new bull leg higher. So buying pullbacks will be the way to get in on the action next week. Patience is a virtue and initializing a trade this late on a Friday is never a way to have a peaceful weekend. Better to come in next week and identify a rising trend.
Long
by Macrobriefing
BTC New Bull Market 99% Confidence99% Confidence It is now official that BTC has started its new bull market cycle after a confirmed weekly candle close above 25.5k. Major Wyckoff accumulation phase is over, now is the time to mark up the price. Elliot Wave analysis also confirmed that the whole move in the last quarter is a new cycle wave 1. And price has already made weekly candle close above 50/200 EMA and 200 SMA, a very convincing move. BTC can still go up somewhere to 30-37k and then stop, next it will make a corrective move of cycle wave 2 for 6-8 months and land above major Wyckoff accumulation trading range, so it will be somewhere at 25-27k or maybe higher. The low of wave 2 will be the third best time to buy. So wave 3 is around Q4 2023-Q1 2024. I still amazed by how BTC can still going up and stay in its traditional cycle despite all the odds that conventionally only gold survived. And even now BTC strongly inverse correlated with SPX, a decouple phenomenon, maybe only temporary.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by derahmanov
Analysis of Wyckoff Accumulation Models and Prediction of BTCI have been closely following two models of accumulation: Wyckoff Events and Phases, specifically Accumulation #1 and Accumulation #2. Accumulation #1: Wyckoff Events and Phases is a model that describes the different stages that a market goes through during an accumulation phase. These stages include the Spring, the Test, the Upthrust, and the Markup. In this model, the Spring is the point at which the market reaches its lowest point, and a potential reversal is on the horizon. The Test is where the market tests the Spring's lows and forms a higher low, indicating that a new uptrend is forming. The Upthrust is where the market rises above the previous high but ultimately fails to sustain this level. Finally, the Markup is where the market rallies and moves higher in a sustained uptrend. Accumulation #2: Wyckoff Events and Phases is another model that describes the market's behavior during an accumulation phase. This model follows a similar progression to Accumulation #1 but with some key differences. The first difference is that it includes a preliminary support level, which is a level below the Spring where buyers start accumulating the asset. The second difference is that it includes a Last Point of Support, which is the final level of support that holds the market up before the Markup begins. Currently, I am closely monitoring the market's behavior as it approaches the liquidation zones. Based on my analysis, I am sticking to my plan of events and expect the market to withdraw and drop the target to the area of $15500 - $14000. I will continue to closely watch Bitcoin's price action and adjust my strategy accordingly. DXY: Bitcoin: Bitcoin: SP500 - 2023 SP500 - 2008 SP500: In the next few years, it is expected that cryptocurrency regulations and taxes will become more prevalent, which may lead many people to leave centralized exchanges due to account blocks and the inability to prove the source of their funds. Uniswap and DyDx are predicted to be the leading trading platforms in the near future. However, Ethereum may also face tighter regulations, resulting in wallet blocks for USDT, USDC, Ethereum, and other tokens. If such a scenario occurs, anonymous coins such as Monero, Litecoin (mimble wimble), and Bitcoin with the Taproot system could become a new trend. We will need to observe how the situation unfolds. In addition, high inflation worldwide may cause Bitcoin to reach a price of $250,000 in the next couple of years.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn285026
12
BTC Wyckoff AccumulationNotice: Since January 16th I have charted out this possible Wyckoff accumulation schematic. I have only updated the supply and demand boxes to justify the moves that have happened, but the pathway hasn't been touched. With this most recent push up to 26k I thought now was the time to publish this idea. BTC is at a point where my idea is either invalidated or it will continue to playout until it is invalidated. A weekly close above the weekly swing high will change my expectations for this chart, but could still have a similar pathway. If we get a close above, then we will have an actual market structure shift on the weekly since the bear market started. At that point I would be looking for a double bottom and the lows to be revisited, or possibly a sweep of the lows were we never get a close below. If we don't get a close above then this idea is still in play and I will be looking for the "Sell in May" to start to bring the market down, apathy to kick in and people to stop caring for a little while. Summer Lull will continue to bring the market lower, with a rally here or there but ultimately the downtrend to stay intact. Coming into Aug/September, a bottom to be formed and wash out all the bulls that were calling for the bottom to already be in. Nov/Dec we can get our Q4 rally heading into the new year where we could see an actual change in market sentiment, just in time for the FED to start QE and heading into the halving where we will see the start of a new bull market. This chart takes wyckoff and pairs it with seasonality and the current market conditions that makes sense to me. Everyone seems to not want to take the current macro economic conditions going on into consideration. This idea I believe does.
by snh6227
Uncovering Wyckoff Accumulation Secret PatternWyckoff Accumulation & Distribution is a trading strategy that was developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 1900s. It is based on the premise that markets move in cycles and that traders may recognize and use these cycles. In accumulation phase Wyckoff strategy involves identifying a Trading Range where buyers are accumulating shares of a stock before it moves higher. This allows traders to enter into positions at lower prices and benefit from the eventual price increase. Wyckoff Accumulation is an effective way for traders and investors to gain on market movements and make profits from their trades. The Wyckoff Trading Ranges feature a chart pattern called Descending Wedge. This pattern involves two trendlines, one falling and one rising, which converge to form a wedge shape. This pattern indicates that the price of an asset is likely to break out in the direction of the falling trendline. In my understanding, "Continuous Weakness" means a shift away from selling towards buying. Sellers fail to hold the pressure, so buyers take the lead leading in D,E: MARKUP phases. Kind regards Artem Shevelev Please check out my older Education Ideas Consider put like and follow my page for more updates)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ArShevelev
3
DJI | Wyckoff DistributionYou might not recognize this chart. To get some background on it, refer to the linked idea down below. You will find it in my profile. As it turns out,it looks like we are in a classic Wyckoff Distribution. It is remarkable that this is hidden beneath our noses. The timing and the accuracy of the future phases may not be completely correct, the path is illustrative of the phases, it isn't drawn using wave theory. I will gladly accept any helpful/corrective comments regarding this. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
4
How Wyckoff & Elliot Wave Theory applied togetherMaybe this near "full-stack" technical analysis using Wyckoff and Elliot Theory along with relevant indicators such as Moving Average and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) will puzzled some of the traders who used to have a simpler analysis on the market. But to those who curious this is something that is really interesting to know. The chart above is showing us how the two theories can be complementary to each other. Lets analyze the chart above of BTC/USD in 4h timeframe from left to right comprehensively based on the Wyckoff phases of the 2nd accumulation model. Phase A: During the early November of 2022, BTC was under heavy sell-off after Binance dumping hard on FTX where the price crossunder 200 EMA and 100 SMA. The waterfall crash of BTC was printing a 5-wave of zigzag wave. We can see that the lowest point of wave 3 shows the highest selling volume in a single 4h HA candle and also act as Preliminary Support (PS) where then I put the 1st support line there. The sell-off continue to form the last zigzag wave where we can see multiple high selling volume bars and made a very deep negative cumulative volume delta in which it represents as Selling Climax (SC) in Wyckoff. A massive buying then occurred which immediately push the price back up to the wave 4 of zigzag wave area, which in Wyckoff we can name it as Automatic Rally (AR). By using these to extreme high of AR and low of SC we can draw a rectangle to have a better view on the consolidation area. After the dramatic push and pull of price, the market volume gradually decreasing followed by price having a contracting highs and lows, forming a classic contracting triangle, where we can see some of the lows are respecting the 2nd support line. Phase B: The end of contracting triangle followed by another zigzag wave of smaller degree, where it breaks the 2nd support line and creating the second lowest low which we can name it as Secondary Test (ST) that the selling volume is much smaller hence also creating a shallower negative CVD. Price then go up back to the 2nd support line and able to reach back to 100 SMA although still not able to candle close it on the first attempt but eventually able to close it on the second attempt. Price then going on a small rally creating an ascending channel of 5-wave leading diagonal and able to close above the 1st support line, the 200 EMA and even able to make a higher high. But the volume is still not enough to make a change of character breakout. Phase C: The mini rally is identified as the 1st wave of primary impulsive wave, so the reactionary move where the price breaking down the ascending channel, the 1st support line, 200 EMA and 100 SMA and going back down to the 2nd support line can be identified as wave 2. Most of phase C volume going under the Volume Mean Level, it is the lowest volume of all of the phases. Combination of multiple minor corrective waves creating a WXY wave and we can see the 2nd support line is holding the price quite well where it represents as Last Point of Support (LPS). Phase D: The volume and price gradually moving up and able to close above 100 SMA and 200 EMA, then going higher to 1st support line with higher volume to a point of Show of Strength (SOS) where a change of character breakout is formed and also breaking out from the box or the whole Trending Range. Phase D is the perfect time to make an entry. The identifying of the first two waves of an impulsive move also creating a high confidence that we are entering the wave 3 or we can also call it as the money wave. Phase E: Just enjoy the rally This whole chart actually representing a very textbook Wyckoff Theory of the 2nd Accumulation Model and we can also see in this chart the transition between corrective wave and motive wave of Elliot Wave Theory. In Phase A and the early Phase B, the corrective wave is on its end, where the rest of the Phase B to E we can see how the scaffoldings of early structure of an impulsive move is constructed. making a consolidating of accumulation before going a strong trending move. Wyckoff explains this transition of corrective wave to a motive wave in a beautiful way and surely we can also use it on the transition of motive wave to a corrective wave using the distribution model. This is just one variation where we can use Elliot and Wyckoff hand in hand in order to have a much better technical analysis on the market and maybe this combined analysis that I made on the above chart could be the best scenario to apply for both theories. Hopefully this helps to educate for anyone of you who read this post, thank you
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by derahmanov