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Wyckoff

BTC Massive SetupConsolidation for months between 91k and 106k - Classic Wyckoff setup as an accumulation/distribution - Price targets of: 121.878 (122k is the popular target) to the upside with 75,827 on the down - Saylor today put out news to be raising another $2 billion to buy BTC. Either he is going to be able to hold the floor or get washed out - Trade can be taken with confirmation of breakout on either side pretty easily as momentum will be so strong that being on the wrong side will most likely be an immediate stop out
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CrashoutCapital
XAUUSD H1: What is happening to GOLD?Technical analysis: The price line is still showing a continued uptrend, important levels are broken and ready for a new ETH GOLD peak! 2 important price zones in the current uptrend are 2934, 2942. Gold investors all see that gold has a strong upward trend, reaching 2940 USD/oz from October 2023 to present, surpassing the resistance of 2000 USD, showing a strong upward trend. However, if we consider the movements, gold has increased 4 times per week and there is a high possibility that there will be an adjustment in this sensitive area. If we consider the cycle, gold in the monthly frame is still in the same upward phase as the quarterly frame, but currently we see that gold has increased for 27 months, corresponding to enough time for a monthly increase phase. Fundamental Analysis Gold prices were flat in the first session of the week as investors awaited further details on US President Donald Trump's tariff plans, which could escalate global trade tensions. Senior Trump administration officials will begin peace talks with Russia and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia in the coming days, which is news that many investors are interested in. Gold has been seen as a safe haven asset during the recent period when geopolitical tensions have escalated.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by xauusd_rr
1
Why I Believe Brent Crude Oil is Headed to $125 by 2026www.tradingview.com 1. Supply Constraints: Geopolitics & Trade Wars One of the biggest drivers of higher oil prices is geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts. We're already seeing major disruptions that could tighten supply further: Middle East Tensions – The ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea, Iran, and Israel continue to create uncertainty. Attacks on shipping routes and production facilities raise the cost of transporting oil and increase the risk of supply disruptions. Russia-Ukraine War – With Russian oil facing sanctions and restrictions, global supply chains have had to adjust, making energy markets more fragile. OPEC+ Output Cuts – OPEC has repeatedly restricted production to keep prices elevated, and there’s no indication they’ll reverse course anytime soon. U.S.-China Trade War & Tariffs – With Trump leading in the 2024 election polls, there’s a growing possibility that tariffs on China will return. If this happens, energy trade flows could be further disrupted, and retaliatory tariffs could add to price pressures. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Depletion – The U.S. used a huge portion of its SPR to lower oil prices in 2022-2023, but refilling those reserves will create additional demand, pushing prices even higher. With these factors at play, supply is becoming more constrained, making it easier for prices to rise with even small increases in demand. 2. Demand Boom: AI, Bitcoin Mining, and Agriculture While supply is tightening, demand for energy is skyrocketing in unexpected ways. AI Data Centers & Industrial Demand AI computing is extremely energy-intensive, and as companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to expand cloud computing infrastructure, demand for electricity is surging. Many data centers still rely on fossil fuels for backup power and cooling systems, meaning oil and gas usage will continue to increase. Bitcoin (BTC) Mining Bitcoin mining requires massive amounts of electricity, and as BTC prices rise, mining activity expands in energy-dependent regions. With the 2024 BTC halving, miners will have to run at full efficiency, which translates to higher global energy consumption. Agriculture & Food Production The world’s growing population and extreme weather events (like El Niño) are driving higher food production needs. Fertilizer production, transportation, and machinery all require oil, meaning agricultural commodities are directly contributing to higher energy demand. Together, these factors suggest that demand for oil is only going to increase, making it harder for supply to keep up. 3. Oil Price vs. Stock Market: The $100 Warning Zone Historically, when oil prices get too high, the stock market struggles. Some key examples: 2008 Recession: Oil peaked at $147 per barrel, right before the financial crisis. 2018 Market Drop: When oil hit $80+, stocks sold off sharply. 2022 Inflation Shock: Oil reached $120+, leading to Fed rate hikes and market turmoil. Why $100+ Oil is a Warning Sign for Stocks Higher oil prices = higher inflation. This forces central banks like the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, making borrowing more expensive. Energy costs impact corporate profits. Companies across multiple sectors will see shrinking profit margins as transportation and production costs rise. Consumer spending takes a hit. Gasoline prices cut into disposable income, which weakens overall economic growth. If Brent crude pushes above $100, expect increased market volatility and a potential selloff in equities. 4. Brent Crude Technicals: Price Targets for 2026 Current Setup Price Holding Key Support (~$70-$74) – Brent is respecting major trendlines, signaling strong demand in this area. Breakout Zone Around $80-$82 – If price moves above this level, it could trigger a rally to $100+. Fibonacci Levels Align with $125 Target: 0.618 Fib retracement at $106 → First major resistance. 0.786 Fib extension at $119 → Likely next target. 1.272 Fib extension near $125 → Final upside target for 2026. This technical setup aligns with macro fundamentals and historical oil cycles, making a move to $125 increasingly probable. 5. Investment & Trading Strategy Long-Term Bullish Strategy Accumulation Zone: $70-$74 (solid support). Upside Targets: $106, $119, $125. Stop Loss Consideration: Below $68 (invalidates thesis). Hedging Against Market Risk SPX Put Options / VIX Calls – If oil rises toward $100+, consider hedging against an equity downturn. Energy Stocks (XLE, Exxon, Chevron) – These stocks tend to outperform during oil bull markets. Gold & Commodities – Hard assets often rally when energy prices increase. Conclusion: The Path to $125 Brent Oil Geopolitical instability + supply cuts = higher prices. AI, Bitcoin, and food production = rising demand. If oil approaches $100, watch for an equities pullback. While no forecast is perfect, all signs point to oil prices rising into 2026. If this trend plays out, investors should be prepared for higher inflation, tighter Fed policy, and increased market volatility. Would love to hear your thoughts—do you think oil will hit $125, or are we headed lower? 🚀📊
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by JavierXBT
WILL GCB MARKING UP?This is An Atypical Type Of Re-Accumulation Trading Range - ReAccmulation Schematic #2 (Rising Bottom) Blue box : A change of character (Choch) of the stock from Non trending -> Trending environment I bought this stock on 6 & 8 of Jan 2025 however the position ended up cut loss Poor timing Since then, the price action from 21-28/1/25 brought my attention **Red Line (Spring Board Schematic #2) 1st position intiated : 31/1/25 @ 4.26 2nd position added : 5/2/25 @ 4.33 Purewyckoff Sl as attached
MYX:GCBLong
by drsyariz
NVS 1H Swing Long Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade + long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support level - biggest volume 2Sp- Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R within 1H range take profit Daily Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + JOC level + support level - above 1/2 of entire 1D wave at the support level of 1M" Monthly Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + support level + JOC level - unvolumed manipulation" Yearly Trend "+ long impulse - resistance level + less than a month left and it looks to break + long volume distribution" NVS @NYSE Bought NVS Market, Day Filled 8:27 AM 104.89325 Profit Taker Sell NVS Limit 105.87, GTC Submitted 8:27 AM
NYSE:NVS
by MishaSuvorov
ES may not close high this fridayCME_MINI:ESH2025 is likely will not close above Thursday high today (Friday). If it is so, then we may see the test of Thursday and Wednesday Cash session Low, which are poor low, On Monday. but that shall be only a temporary correction. ES fail to stay above Yesterday high and ON high today, but it doesn't show aggressive liquidation today. so, need more caution for shorting ES on Monday. CME_MINI:NQH2025 also doesn't show any strength on Friday session one. for now, ha
CME_MINI:ESH2025Short
by ruby_kinetix
The Wyckoff Accumulation Method. And how it can make you money.Richard Demille Wyckoff (1873–1934) was a trailblazer in the early 20th century, known for his innovative technical methods in stock market analysis. He ranks among the five great figures of technical analysis, alongside Dow, Gann, Elliott, and Merrill. At just 15 years old, he began his career as a stock runner for a brokerage in New York. By his twenties, he had already risen to the position of head of his firm. Wyckoff was a passionate learner of the markets, deeply engaged in tape reading and trading. He closely monitored the market manoeuvres and strategies of the iconic stock traders of his era, such as JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore. Through his keen observations and discussions with these prominent figures, Wyckoff distilled the most effective practices of Livermore and others into a set of laws, principles, and techniques that shaped his trading methodology, money management strategies, and mental discipline. Mr. Wyckoff noticed that many retail investors were consistently being taken advantage of. In response, he committed himself to educating the public on “the true rules of the game” as dictated by major players, often referred to as “smart money.” In the 1930s, he established a school that eventually evolved into the Stock Market Institute. The primary focus of the school was a course that combined Wyckoff's insights on recognising the accumulation and distribution strategies of large operators with techniques for aligning one’s investments with these influential entities. His enduring principles remain just as relevant today as they were when he first shared them. “…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2) Wyckoff advised retail traders to try to play the market game as the Composite Man played it. He claimed that it doesn't matter if market moves “are real or artificial; that is, the result of actual buying and selling by the public and bona fide investors or artificial buying and selling by larger operators.” Wyckoff, drawing from his extensive observations of the market activities of major players, imparted several key insights: The Composite Man meticulously strategises, implements, and wraps up his market campaigns. He entices the public to invest in a stock where he has built a significant position by engaging in numerous transactions, effectively promoting his stock and creating the illusion of a “broad market.” To truly grasp the dynamics at play, one must analyse individual stock charts to discern the behaviour of the stock and the intentions of the large operators who influence it. With dedicated study and practice, individuals can develop the skill to decode the underlying motives reflected in a chart's movements. Wyckoff and his colleagues believed that by understanding the market behaviour of the Composite Man, traders could spot numerous trading and investment opportunities early enough to capitalise on them. One goal of the Wyckoff method is to enhance market timing when entering a position by predicting an upcoming movement that offers a favourable reward-to-risk ratio. Trading ranges (TRs) represent areas where the previous trend, whether upward or downward, has paused, creating a relative balance between supply and demand. During these TRs, institutions and large professional players gear up for their next bullish or bearish strategies by either accumulating or distributing shares. In both accumulation and distribution phases within TRs, the Composite Man is actively engaged in buying and selling. The key difference lies in the fact that during accumulation, the volume of shares bought exceeds those sold, whereas in distribution, the opposite occurs. The degree of accumulation or distribution ultimately influences the nature of the subsequent movement out of the TR. Springs and shakeouts typically happen towards the end of a trading range (TR), providing key players in the stock market an opportunity to thoroughly assess the available supply before initiating a markup phase. A "spring" occurs when the price dips below the lowest point of the TR, only to rebound and close back within the range. This maneuver can create confusion among the public regarding the future direction of the stock, allowing major investors to acquire more shares at lower prices. A terminal shakeout, which takes place at the conclusion of an accumulation TR, is essentially an amplified version of a spring. Additionally, shakeouts can happen even after a price increase has begun, characterized by a swift drop designed to prompt retail traders and long-position investors to sell their shares to larger market players. To sum up, while there is much more to explore on this topic, Richard D. Wyckoff's groundbreaking contributions in the early 1900s highlighted that stock price movements are largely influenced by institutional players and significant market operators who often sway prices to their advantage. Although many professional traders incorporate Wyckoff's techniques, his comprehensive approach remains underutilised among retail investors, despite his aim to educate the public on the "true rules of the game." His methods for stock selection and investment have proven resilient over time, thanks to their detailed, systematic, and logical framework for pinpointing high-probability, lucrative trades. This disciplined strategy empowers investors to make rational trading choices, free from emotional bias. By applying Wyckoff's principles, investors can align themselves with the strategies of influential "smart money" players, avoiding the pitfalls of being on the wrong side of market movements. Mastering Wyckoff analysis demands significant practice, but the rewards are undoubtedly worthwhile.
PULSEX:HEXWPLS_F1F4EE.USDLong
by BallaJi
Bitcoin and Wyckoff Accumulation D1BINANCE:BTCUSDT Lets check classic Wyckoff Accumulation phase since drop In June. This is D1 Timeframe and if Historically October is green month with 15-60% moves up. We have an all chances break resistance and hit even 28-30K. Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch! ✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes. * Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓ * For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BITMEX:XBTLong
by Crypto4light
5
Bitcoin LTF Signals Wyckoff Phase D Potential Near Term WeaknessSeems volatility is the name of the game as power changes hands in Washington, D.C., and Memecoins are set to swallow up market liquidity (for better or worse). Personally, I’ve never really cared for Memecoins, and tend to focus on POW governance tokens for long term value. Seems the “interesting times” of that Chinese Proverb are upon us. On the LTF (1D) Point and Figure, the formation is currently printing a distribution pattern, completing Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution pattern. Phase C in a distributive phase generally reveals itself through a (or some) strong Upward Thrust (UT) and/or a (or some) Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD). The formation has already printed a Shakeout Distribution Spring to the $89,200 handle in Phase B, and subsequently printed the first Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) to the $105,800 handle signaling the beginning of Phase C distribution had started. The formation printed a subsequent UTAD to the $109,200 handle - all typical activity we would expect to see in Phase C of a distribution cycle. The following Test of that UTAD at the $106,400 handle, printed a lower high and signaled both (i) the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) for Phase C of this distribution cycle, and (ii) the end of Phase C of this distribution cycle. Phase D Wyckoff Distribution is generally signaled when the formation prints a Major Sign Of Weakness (MSOW) which “Breaks the Ice” of the lower level of support within the Trade Range. This sets up an excellent Risk/Reward opportunity for a potential short swing trade position. The current formation suggests that a move to the $90,600 handle is in play in the near term as Phase C of this distribution cycle completes and moves into Phase D. There is a potential longer near-term play for $85,600 as the formation moves into the final phase (Phase E) of this distribution cycle. Provided the LPSY formed on the Return to Ice move tops out at the $92,800 handle the Horizontal Price Count should be accurate. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOFAgent1
SMLT 1D Aggressive Investment CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade - short impulse + biggest volume T1 + support level + biggest volume 2Sp+ + weak test + first bullish bar closed entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit CounterTrend 1M "+ short impulse + biggest volume TE / T1 level + support level + biggest manipulation?" Trend 12M "+ SOS test level - far below 1/2 correction + support level + biggest volume manipulation?" They say company is going to bankruptcy, but why would it concern technical analysis?!
RUS:SMLTLong
by MishaSuvorov
1
WARNING: BTC USDT MOVE! US SELLS THEIR BTC (silk road BTC)💰 Current Bitcoin Price: Bitcoin is trading at approximately $93,456.76, with a 7-day decline of 3.54%. 📊 Macroeconomic Factors: Strong US economic data and inflation concerns have negatively impacted Bitcoin as the Federal Reserve moderates interest rate cuts. 💵 Global Liquidity: Bitcoin’s price is pressured by contractions in the M2 money supply, though historical trends show potential for recovery with increased liquidity. 😟 Market Sentiment: The Greed & Fear Index has shifted from extreme fear to cautious optimism, reflecting mixed investor confidence. 🪙 Investor Behavior: Exchange withdrawals are reducing supply, while profit-taking activities have influenced recent price corrections. 📉 Historical Patterns: January slumps are common for Bitcoin following US presidential elections, aligning with historical trends. 🚀 Future Outlook: Institutional interest and potential increases in global liquidity could drive Bitcoin’s price recovery and stability in early 2025. STUDY TIME! PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes, as heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests. AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC. Test—Large operators always test the market for supply throughout a TR (e.g., STs and springs) and at key points during a price advance. If considerable supply emerges on a test, the market is often not ready to be marked up. A spring is often followed by one or more tests; a successful test (indicating that further price increases will follow) typically makes a higher low on lesser volume. SOS—sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. Often a SOS takes place after a spring, validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action. LPS—last point of support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume. On some charts, there may be more than one LPS, despite the ostensibly singular precision of this term. BU—”back-up”. This term is short hand for a colorful metaphor coined by Robert Evans, one of the leading teachers of the Wyckoff method from the 1930s to the 1960s. Evans analogized the SOS to a “jump across the creek” of price resistance, and the “back up to the creek” represented both short-term profit-taking and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level. Note: Springs or shakeouts usually occur late within a TR and allow the stock’s dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign unfolds. A “spring” takes price below the low of the TR and then reverses to close within the TR; this action allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to acquire additional shares at bargain prices. A terminal shakeout at the end of an accumulation TR is like a spring on steroids. Shakeouts may also occur once a price advance has started, with rapid downward movement intended to induce retail traders and investors in long positions to sell their shares to large operators. However, springs and terminal shakeouts are not required elements: Accumulation Schematic 1 depicts a spring, while Accumulation Schematic 2 shows a TR without a spring.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by osodatsismoso