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Wyckoff

Bitcoin - Technical AnalysisDear Analysts and Traders, Looking at the Bitcoin price chart, I notice a variety of structures described by Technical Analysis. My attention is particularly drawn to elements related to the Elliott and Wyckoff methodologies. The market appears chaotic yet orderly at the same time. I must mention that I am not someone with formal education in this field. I am self-taught, placing a strong emphasis on using Technical Analysis as the main component of my decision-making process. This stems from my belief that although the chart is difficult to read, it largely allows for the interpretation of the hidden intentions of "smart money." I want to stress that the following words reflect only my personal point of view, which may not be correct, and that this publication is by no means investment or educational advice as understood by any law regulating such matters. I simply intend to ramble about topics I don’t fully understand. Background Bitcoin's price is in a long-term upward trend. Over the past year, there has been a strong upward trend within a broad sideways structure. Today, the price is near the upper boundary of this multi-year structure, and at the same time, at the lower limit of a smaller structure. Technical Analysis In my considerations, I will use elements of the Elliott, Wyckoff, and VSA methodologies. I begin by applying the key elements of these methodologies to the price chart from recent months. Starting with Elliott's five-wave approach, I outline the trend that has brought the price to these levels, marking it as (12345). Next, I highlight the three-wave corrective patterns with a white (ABC), creating a complex correction structure. I add events consistent with the Wyckoff method to the chart. Due to the complex nature of the studied structure, I decide to mark processes of varying scales. I do this with verbal descriptions in red and green, supplemented by horizontal lines indicating support and resistance. The structure described in red is the dominant one. I analyze the volume dynamics, marking them with dashed lines and a red loop. Additionally, I pay attention to candlesticks, especially in the context of VSA and their specific meaning in key areas, such as extremes or events related to the methodologies used. Interpretation and Thoughts Without a doubt, Bitcoin’s price structure is both intriguing and complex. Looking at the most basic elements of the chart, I see strength, and at the peaks, I don't notice setups like Trap UpMove or Upthrust with volumes significantly deviating from the average. Instead, there are numerous Shakeout events, often followed by local volume peaks in its declining trend. This is different from the setup at the point I marked as Phase C. According to Wyckoff’s method, this is where the largest volume since the halt of the uptrend has appeared. The Green Upthrust is particularly interesting. As part of a smaller structure, which I believe to be accumulative, it indicates No Demand. Of course, this is a sign of weakness, but what matters to me is the background, where significant potential distribution is evident, with signs of weakness seen through multiple breaches of the lower part of the trading range. I could treat this situation as Phase C, but of a distribution phase. However, I believe there is no overwhelming supply here, and in the actions of the Composite Man, I would expect an attempt to lead the crowd to the highest possible regions, trap them, and guide them to the inevitable. Here, the rhetoric is different—the market appears weak, but the area around Preliminary Supply has been strongly defended by the bulls. From an Elliott perspective, I see a complex correction, and I believe it is a triple three, consisting of a flat correction, a three, and a zigzag. The end of this series of corrections, in my opinion, begins Phase C of the highest-order accumulation in this area of the chart. Supporting the thesis of an accumulation process is the volume, which follows a characteristic pattern: huge volumes at the halt, followed by a steady decline in Phase B, particularly during the descent from the peak of the Red Upthrust. The test of Phase C is abrupt, and the price once again forms a smaller structure. Here, I expect a test to appear, especially on a higher timeframe, confirming No Supply. For now, despite the chart’s grim appearance, I see more of a transfer of assets from the crowd rather than an attempt to push the price significantly lower. The Bitcoin price chart presents a beautiful structure from a Technical Analysis perspective. I believe there is much more to be uncovered. I think my reflections on these price movements provide a basis to claim that an accumulation process is underway. Soon, confirmation of the lack of selling pressure will likely emerge—if I am interpreting the market correctly. The smaller Green Structure is a kind of retest that could evolve into a Turning Point. Soon, the market will reveal whether my assumptions are correct and make clearer that which allows for easy analysis... after the fact! Thank you all for taking the time to read my thoughts. I wish you successful analyses and winning positions! CatTheTrader
Long
by CatTheTrader
BTC/USD: Ready to Break the Channel and Soar to 100K Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a well-defined descending channel for the past few weeks, showing signs of consolidation. However, several key indicators suggest that BTC is preparing for a breakout, potentially leading to a significant rally that could push the price toward the highly anticipated $100,000 level. Bitcoin is on the verge of a significant breakout. All signs point to the beginning of a new bullish cycle, with a realistic path toward $100,000. Traders should watch closely for a decisive move above the channel, as this could mark the start of the next major leg up in BTC's journey. Risk Management: As always, set appropriate stop losses and manage risk carefully. Volatility is inherent in crypto markets, and while the outlook is bullish, it’s essential to stay disciplined. DISCLAIMER: This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading
Long
by cyhym
Bitcoin’s Rounded Top [Wyckoff Distribution]: 5 Phases to KnowHello, Trading Community! Today, we dive into the fascinating world of the Wyckoff Distribution model as it applies to Bitcoin's current market structure. Please remember that this article is purely for educational purposes and is not intended as trading advice. While we explore potential scenarios, including the possibility of Bitcoin heading down to $30,000 or even $25,000, these claims are speculative and should be considered hypothetical. The Wyckoff Distribution Model: A Roadmap for Market Tops The Wyckoff Distribution model offers a comprehensive framework for understanding how major market players distribute their holdings before a significant downturn. It is divided into several phases: Phase A: The market begins to show preliminary signs of selling pressure after an extended uptrend. This is the first hint that the balance of power is shifting from buyers to sellers. Phase B: The market enters a consolidation phase, moving sideways as large investors gradually distribute their positions. Phase C: A deceptive breakout, known as the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD), occurs here, often trapping unsuspecting retail traders. Phase D: The onset of a decline, marked by clear Signs of Weakness (SOW), indicates that the distribution phase is nearing its end. Phase E: The final phase, where the market confirms the distribution and continues to fall, marking the completion of the process. Breaking Down Bitcoin's Key Price Points Let's take a closer look at the crucial price points that have defined Bitcoin's current structure within the Wyckoff Distribution model: Buying Climax (BC) - $73,660 This is the pinnacle of buying activity, where demand reaches its peak before supply starts to dominate. For Bitcoin, this level marked the highest point in the current cycle before a significant sell-off began. Automatic Reaction (AR) - $60,795 Following the Buying Climax, the market experienced an Automatic Reaction—a sharp drop as sellers stepped in. This level is critical as it signifies the start of the distribution process. Upthrust (UT) - $71,180 The Upthrust represents a rally that tests the resistance near the Buying Climax. However, it fails to sustain those levels, hinting that the market's upward momentum is weakening. Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) - $71,680 The UTAD often serves as a bull trap, where the price makes a final push above the resistance only to quickly reverse. This move confirms that distribution is taking place. Sign of Weakness (SOW) - $54,344 After the UTAD, the market drops significantly, signaling a clear Sign of Weakness. This level demonstrates that sellers are gaining control, pushing the price to new lows. Last Point of Supply 1 (LPSY 1) - $70,040 The first Last Point of Supply (LPSY 1) is a weaker rally that fails to reach previous highs. This is a key indicator that the market's bullish momentum is fading, and distribution is nearing completion. Last Point of Supply 2 (LPSY 2) - $65,105 Currently, Bitcoin is in Phase E, at the LPSY 2 point. This level is crucial as it typically marks the final confirmation of distribution before a sustained downtrend. Navigating Phase E: The Final Act of Distribution As Bitcoin navigates through Phase E, the LPSY 2 level becomes a focal point. This phase is characterized by further price declines as the market confirms the distribution. Here’s what to watch for: Lower Highs and Lower Lows: Expect the price to continue forming lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish trend. Volume Patterns: During this phase, volume analysis becomes critical. Look for decreasing volume on upswings and increasing volume on downswings, which confirms the presence of distribution. Final Thoughts The Wyckoff Distribution model provides a structured way to understand how markets transition from bullish to bearish trends. With Bitcoin currently exhibiting a Rounded Top structure and sitting at LPSY 2 in Phase E, the evidence suggests that we may be on the cusp of further declines. By staying vigilant and analyzing key price levels and volume patterns, traders can better position themselves to navigate this challenging market environment. In this complex market phase, understanding the underlying forces at play can be the difference between protecting your capital and being caught off guard by the next big move. Stay tuned for more!
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by ArShevelev
4
CCK MARKING UPClassic wyckoff Re-Accumulation of Schematic #1 With spring in the house What attracted me the most, is that, there was an absoprtion past 2 days as evidence by the volume (Black Arrow) With breakout today accompanied with huge vol, this is a sBar (Siginificant Bar) as mentioned by Prof Roman in his teaching. I called it Timing Bar Thus, i went with a heavyweight position on this one Risk is always respected in view of that, i humbly initiated position as attached
CLong
by drsyariz