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Wyckoff

Market Anticipation: Geopolitical Tensions Signal Volatility ATitle: “ES Futures: Tensions Ahead of the Trump-Zelensky Confrontation” As markets gear up for what could be a pivotal geopolitical showdown, the S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) are reflecting cautious positioning. The recent price action has been telling: early-day balance on Thursday gave way to late-session liquidations, and Friday saw a near mirror reversal. This behavior may point to either month-end rebalancing or anticipation of the Trump-Zelensky meeting, where market sentiment seems to be taking cues from factors beyond conventional U.S. policy narratives. Key Insights: • Intraday Dynamics: Thursday’s session witnessed initial equilibrium followed by marked liquidation toward the close, suggesting profit-taking or defensive rebalancing. On Friday, the reversal of Thursday’s moves hints at market indecision—a potential prelude to heightened volatility. • Geopolitical Catalysts: The upcoming Trump-Zelensky meeting appears to be a significant driver. Beyond traditional economic factors, markets seem to be pricing in geopolitical risk, as evidenced by the nuanced trading patterns observed in early March. • Market Breadth: While the spotlight is on ES futures, other instruments are in play: • European Front ( EUREX:FDXM1! ): Watch for reactions post-meeting, as European leaders might rally in response. • Safe Havens ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! & NYMEX:CL1! ): Gold and oil futures are likely to serve as bellwethers for risk sentiment. • The Dollar ( CAPITALCOM:DXY ): Expected to strengthen amid a flight to quality, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment. The market, as always, seems to understand dynamics that sometimes elude policymakers. As we approach this high-stakes meeting, prepare for a potential surge in volatility across asset classes. What are your thoughts on this geopolitical gamble, and how are you positioning your portfolio in anticipation of these events?
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ruby_kinetix
DAX futures after Trump - Zeleansky clash meetingMarket Analysis: Anticipating March Volatility The market is demonstrating superior collective intelligence through recent price action. The EUREX:FDXM1! index has established balanced profile patterns over several consecutive sessions, indicating a lack of directional conviction among participants. This consolidation phase suggests market participants are in a holding pattern, awaiting catalytic information before committing to directional positions . Friday, February 28th marked both month-end rebalancing and a critical geopolitical event as markets positioned ahead of the Trump-Zelensky meeting. The subsequent contentious Oval Office exchange between the US and Ukrainian presidents on February 28th has created significant geopolitical uncertainty . This high-stakes diplomatic confrontation, which ended without the anticipated minerals agreement being signed, has introduced a new variable into market equations . Projected Market Impact Early March is likely to experience heightened volatility across multiple asset classes: - **European and US Indices**: The breakdown in US-Ukraine relations and resulting implications for European security policy will likely trigger significant price swings in both US and European equity markets . With European leaders now forced to reconsider their defense strategies in light of potentially diminishing US support, market participants must reprice risk premiums accordingly . - **Commodities**: Oil and gold NYMEX:CL1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! markets should see amplified movement as geopolitical tensions typically drive safe-haven flows and energy price speculation . - **Currency Markets**: The dollar CAPITALCOM:DXY is positioned to strengthen against major currencies as uncertainty typically benefits the world's reserve currency, particularly when European geopolitical stability comes into question . The DAX futures, currently showing mixed signals from analysts with projections ranging from 17,500 to potentially higher levels by year-end, will likely experience increased volatility in the near term as markets digest these developments .
EUREX:FDXMH2025
by ruby_kinetix
MGNT 1H Long Investment Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade + long impulse + SOS level + 1/2 correction + volumed 2Sp- - day will close without test Calculated affordable stop limit 1/2 1M take profit Daily Trend "+ long impulse + SOS test / T2 level + support level - strong approach from volume zone + biggest volume manipulation" Monthly Trend + long impulse + expanding biggest volume T2 + support level + 1/2 correction + unvolumed 2Sp- + strong buying bars + weak selling bar / test Yearly no context
RUS:MGNTLong
by MishaSuvorov
Ford 1D Investment Aggressive CounterTrend TradAggressive CounterTrend Trade - short impulse + exhaustion volume + 1/2 correction Calculated affordable stop limit Take profit: 1/3 to 1/2 Month Trend 1/3 to Month T2 1/3 to Year 1/2 Sell F Limit at $14.95 (Good 'til Canceled) Sell F Limit at $11.57 (Good 'til Canceled) Sell F Limit at $10.21 (Good 'til Canceled) Monthly CounterTrend "- short impulse + 1/2 correction - unvolumed T1 + support level + reverse volume approach + volumed manipulation" Yearly Trend "+ long impulse + volumed T2 level + volumed 2Sp+ + weak test"
NYSE:FLong
by MishaSuvorov
Strength on HPQ ChartHP Inc., stock approaches the bottom of the sideways channel (black horizontal lines) from which it may bounce again. During the May 29, 2024 bar, professionals bought (blue rectangle), and since then, whenever the price reached this zone, they were buying more. It should be noted that the buying around the bottom of the sideways is much bigger than the selling around its top which is bullish behaviour. Wyckoff's Spring on the recent activity adds to strength too. Another good sign for bulls is the decreasing volume on the down move, which indicates an absence of professional interest in lowering prices. The testing process is ongoing as of today. If the price reaches the buying zone and no supply reappears, there is a big probability for a move up towards $37.30 - $ 39.29 with minor resistance around $34.62 - $34.72. If supply reappears and the price breaks the bottom of the sideways channel ($32.41) we may see another leg down to $29.00 - $30.00 for more buying.
NYSE:HPQLong
by VSA_Home
POSI 1H Investment Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade - short impulse + volumed T1 level / SOS test level + volumed 2Sp- + weak test Calculated affordable stop limit 1/2 Monthly wave take profit Daily Trend "+ long impulse? - resistance level - short volume distribution" Monthly Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + volumed expanding T1 + support level + biggest volume manipulation" Yearly Trend + long impulse Weird set up. Market is strong and Monthly look a lot like exhaustion!
RUS:POSI
by MishaSuvorov
AUD/USD Bearish Breakout PotentialThe chart shows AUD/USD on a 1-hour timeframe, highlighting a consolidation phase with multiple rejections at resistance (labelled 1-4). The price has recently rejected the upper boundary and is breaking down from the range, suggesting bearish momentum. A significant liquidity grab appears to have occurred near the highs, followed by a strong rejection. The projected move suggests a further decline toward the next support level around 0.6300. Traders might look for confirmation via increased selling pressure and volume before entering short positions.
Short
by BeaucoupPips
LINK | Wyckoff Method | Phase 3 IMPULSE WAVELINK shows a very clear Wyckoff Method Cycle from the macro timeframe: This is typically what a Wyckoff Method cycle looks like from a macro perspective: When we look at Chainlink from the macro and compare it to the previous cycle, it seems likely that LINK goes up in "impulse waves". We now have Wave 3 to look forward to, which may likely play out over a few months - as did the previous cycle. ________________ COINBASE:LINKUSD
Long
by CryptoCheck-
WILL SIGNATURE MARKING UP?A typical Rising Bottom (Re-Accmulation Schematic #2) Despite huge supply on 6th & 14th February, price still trending Up (Red Arrow) In terms of price action, nothing to be pointing as it is very obvious to Wyckoffian So, Based on presumption of BUEC : Tried to get in around 1.63-1.64 , failed Bursa Malaysia has been experiencing a very tough environment past few months, With Foreign Inst became Net Sellers (Consecutively) Ep with SL as attached, Tight Risk Pure Wyckoff
MYX:SIGNLong
by drsyariz
1
BTC Massive SetupConsolidation for months between 91k and 106k - Classic Wyckoff setup as an accumulation/distribution - Price targets of: 121.878 (122k is the popular target) to the upside with 75,827 on the down - Saylor today put out news to be raising another $2 billion to buy BTC. Either he is going to be able to hold the floor or get washed out - Trade can be taken with confirmation of breakout on either side pretty easily as momentum will be so strong that being on the wrong side will most likely be an immediate stop out
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CrashoutCapital
XAUUSD H1: What is happening to GOLD?Technical analysis: The price line is still showing a continued uptrend, important levels are broken and ready for a new ETH GOLD peak! 2 important price zones in the current uptrend are 2934, 2942. Gold investors all see that gold has a strong upward trend, reaching 2940 USD/oz from October 2023 to present, surpassing the resistance of 2000 USD, showing a strong upward trend. However, if we consider the movements, gold has increased 4 times per week and there is a high possibility that there will be an adjustment in this sensitive area. If we consider the cycle, gold in the monthly frame is still in the same upward phase as the quarterly frame, but currently we see that gold has increased for 27 months, corresponding to enough time for a monthly increase phase. Fundamental Analysis Gold prices were flat in the first session of the week as investors awaited further details on US President Donald Trump's tariff plans, which could escalate global trade tensions. Senior Trump administration officials will begin peace talks with Russia and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia in the coming days, which is news that many investors are interested in. Gold has been seen as a safe haven asset during the recent period when geopolitical tensions have escalated.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by xauusd_rr
1
Why I Believe Brent Crude Oil is Headed to $125 by 2026www.tradingview.com 1. Supply Constraints: Geopolitics & Trade Wars One of the biggest drivers of higher oil prices is geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts. We're already seeing major disruptions that could tighten supply further: Middle East Tensions – The ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea, Iran, and Israel continue to create uncertainty. Attacks on shipping routes and production facilities raise the cost of transporting oil and increase the risk of supply disruptions. Russia-Ukraine War – With Russian oil facing sanctions and restrictions, global supply chains have had to adjust, making energy markets more fragile. OPEC+ Output Cuts – OPEC has repeatedly restricted production to keep prices elevated, and there’s no indication they’ll reverse course anytime soon. U.S.-China Trade War & Tariffs – With Trump leading in the 2024 election polls, there’s a growing possibility that tariffs on China will return. If this happens, energy trade flows could be further disrupted, and retaliatory tariffs could add to price pressures. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Depletion – The U.S. used a huge portion of its SPR to lower oil prices in 2022-2023, but refilling those reserves will create additional demand, pushing prices even higher. With these factors at play, supply is becoming more constrained, making it easier for prices to rise with even small increases in demand. 2. Demand Boom: AI, Bitcoin Mining, and Agriculture While supply is tightening, demand for energy is skyrocketing in unexpected ways. AI Data Centers & Industrial Demand AI computing is extremely energy-intensive, and as companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to expand cloud computing infrastructure, demand for electricity is surging. Many data centers still rely on fossil fuels for backup power and cooling systems, meaning oil and gas usage will continue to increase. Bitcoin (BTC) Mining Bitcoin mining requires massive amounts of electricity, and as BTC prices rise, mining activity expands in energy-dependent regions. With the 2024 BTC halving, miners will have to run at full efficiency, which translates to higher global energy consumption. Agriculture & Food Production The world’s growing population and extreme weather events (like El Niño) are driving higher food production needs. Fertilizer production, transportation, and machinery all require oil, meaning agricultural commodities are directly contributing to higher energy demand. Together, these factors suggest that demand for oil is only going to increase, making it harder for supply to keep up. 3. Oil Price vs. Stock Market: The $100 Warning Zone Historically, when oil prices get too high, the stock market struggles. Some key examples: 2008 Recession: Oil peaked at $147 per barrel, right before the financial crisis. 2018 Market Drop: When oil hit $80+, stocks sold off sharply. 2022 Inflation Shock: Oil reached $120+, leading to Fed rate hikes and market turmoil. Why $100+ Oil is a Warning Sign for Stocks Higher oil prices = higher inflation. This forces central banks like the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, making borrowing more expensive. Energy costs impact corporate profits. Companies across multiple sectors will see shrinking profit margins as transportation and production costs rise. Consumer spending takes a hit. Gasoline prices cut into disposable income, which weakens overall economic growth. If Brent crude pushes above $100, expect increased market volatility and a potential selloff in equities. 4. Brent Crude Technicals: Price Targets for 2026 Current Setup Price Holding Key Support (~$70-$74) – Brent is respecting major trendlines, signaling strong demand in this area. Breakout Zone Around $80-$82 – If price moves above this level, it could trigger a rally to $100+. Fibonacci Levels Align with $125 Target: 0.618 Fib retracement at $106 → First major resistance. 0.786 Fib extension at $119 → Likely next target. 1.272 Fib extension near $125 → Final upside target for 2026. This technical setup aligns with macro fundamentals and historical oil cycles, making a move to $125 increasingly probable. 5. Investment & Trading Strategy Long-Term Bullish Strategy Accumulation Zone: $70-$74 (solid support). Upside Targets: $106, $119, $125. Stop Loss Consideration: Below $68 (invalidates thesis). Hedging Against Market Risk SPX Put Options / VIX Calls – If oil rises toward $100+, consider hedging against an equity downturn. Energy Stocks (XLE, Exxon, Chevron) – These stocks tend to outperform during oil bull markets. Gold & Commodities – Hard assets often rally when energy prices increase. Conclusion: The Path to $125 Brent Oil Geopolitical instability + supply cuts = higher prices. AI, Bitcoin, and food production = rising demand. If oil approaches $100, watch for an equities pullback. While no forecast is perfect, all signs point to oil prices rising into 2026. If this trend plays out, investors should be prepared for higher inflation, tighter Fed policy, and increased market volatility. Would love to hear your thoughts—do you think oil will hit $125, or are we headed lower? 🚀📊
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by JavierXBT