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Wyckoff

Bitcoin Local Distribution Accumulation Trading RangesUtilizing the Wyckoff Methodology to identify whether a trading range is in accumulation or distribution is critical to forming a directional bias and determining the probable future trend of the market. Trading ranges are formed on all timeframes and the price action within them contain key characteristics that can be used to identify what phase of the cycle the market is in. Within Bitcoins Macro Distribution range from 30-60k we can identify the following high timeframe Ranges occurring, 1st Distribution 46-59k, Accumulation 30-40k, 2nd Distribution 60-66k, Re-Distribution 35-45k Distribution Phase Definitions: PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching. BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, and heavy or urgent buying by the public is being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often occurs coincident with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price. AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. If a top is to be confirmed, supply will outweigh demand, and volume and spread should decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. A ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs, then quickly reverses to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR. SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant. LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest. UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element. Accumulation Phase Definitions: PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests. AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC. Test—Large operators always test the market for supply throughout a TR (e.g., STs and springs) and at key points during a price advance. If considerable supply emerges on a test, the market is often not ready to be marked up. A spring is often followed by one or more tests; a successful test (indicating that further price increases will follow) typically makes a higher low on lesser volume. SOS—sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. Often a SOS takes place after a spring, validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action. LPS—last point of support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume. On some charts, there may be more than one LPS, despite the ostensibly singular precision of this term. BU—”back-up”. This term is short-hand for a colorful metaphor coined by Robert Evans, one of the leading teachers of the Wyckoff method from the 1930s to the 1960s. Evans analogized the SOS to a “jump across the creek” of price resistance, and the “back up to the creek” represented both short-term profit-taking and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level.
by Armanhammer
1
WYCKOFF / COT PERSPECTIVE ON GBPUSD- Institutional actions preceed price in past 2 years - COT is inverted to better show correlation between shorts and price - 2021 was consolidation phase where institutions accumulated shorts - First 9 months of 2022 was mark down phase - Driving price to a level where shorts could be distributed with a healthy profit - Last quarter of 2022 was profit-taking phase where shorts were rapidly unwound - Short positions is back at levels of begin 2021 - Wait for institutions to kick off a new campaign - Seasonally begin of year is not trending for GBPUSD
by xtrader1
1
CADJPY Long PlanContinue the Wyckoff methodology and Volume Profile series, today I will do the analysis CADJPY. As we see after CADJPY went down from 110.2 to 99.5, the price hold in this area for more than 14 days - price range around under 2%. I did statistics from Jan 2022 until now, if the price is holding in the price range under 2% from 14 - 21 days, CADJPY will have a chance to pump. If the price reverse to the 99.67 - 99.42 area, I will do a long trade at 99.67 and the 2nd entry is 99.4, then hold it to 104.67 Once again, this setup looks very basic, but it's really effective. Let's follow the plan and see what will happen.
Long
by yinfire
AUD/USD ShortPossibly the Australian dollar against the American dollar has a fall because it has 4 confirmations: • Wyckoff Accumulation • Butterfly harmonic pattern • Rising wedge • Reaction of an Order Block in 4h The first three factors tend to reverse the trend or set the tone for a new trend, which in this case would be bearish apart from the fact that in elliot waves the rising wedge marks the end of a wave, whether it is "1", "5" or "C" wave. Wait for it to reach the entry area
Short
by Ed_Ale
5
Litecoin in Redistribution?As this is something we've discussed live extensively during streams, I wanted to take a moment to outline a "live" setup for Wyckoff Redistribution. In this instance, the target is Litecoin ($LTC). First let's discuss what Wyckoff Redistribution actually is, starting with a link to the pattern itself . Wyckoff Redistribution is a way to truly make sense of what's happening with particular assets. As many already know, trading is hard! What makes it especially hard is the trickiness that happens so tricky. Many times our emotions will tell us to "buy" or that things "FEEL bullish" right before a big selloff. Viewing things in the context of Wyckoff helps us strip away the constant smoke & mirrors & determine what's truly going on. Here are the key steps & triggers as I see them (Note: ORDER MATTERS): 1) Identify a sustained downtrend (usually -30% or greater) 2) Identify a period of time where price appears to go sideways on the macro time frame (daily candles, with downtrend and sideways each lasting months) 3) Identify the formation of key horizontal(s) where price keeps selling off consistently (short stops & long triggers are being built here). * This is often the trade range highs. 4) Identify a LACK of lows being run. * Running the lows is a BULLISH indicator, whereas NOT running lows is BEARISH. Redistribution is BEARISH. 5) After sustained consolidation, watch for the before mentioned horizontals to be BROKEN. * This is what gets shorts to close and longs to pile on, as a trick. 6) After the breakout, watch for price to close BACK under the key horizontal identified previously. * Breaking back into the range, rather than consolidating at the highs, is a key difference between the UTAD of Wyckoff Redistribution & the "SOS" consolidation of Wyckoff Acummulation. 7) At this point, your sell/short entries trigger & the anticipated price drop is from the failed breakout horizontal down to the range lows. * The stops here would be back above the range highs 8) After this move, the market often rallies off the lows in some bearish form (dead cat, Rising Wedge, H&S, etc) where it then falls below the range lows as it heads downward toward its next target. This concludes the lesson on trading Wyckoff Redistribution. If you have any questions or suggestions, feel free to reach out to me via socials. GL
BITFINEX:LTCUSDShort
by Crypt0Jack
4
Bitcoin Macro DistributionI subscribe to Wyckoff Methodology quite heavily viewing all markets as being manipulated by the composite operator (invisible hand moving the markets accumulating supply creating the lows of the market and distributing supply creating the tops). Bitcoin over the course of 2021-2022 has completed a Macro Distribution Schematic. Viewing markets in trading ranges is critical to utilizing Wyckoff methodology to your advantage. We can clearly see where preliminary supply is being unloaded by large interests after the significant run up signaling that a change in trend is approaching. After this occurs the market continues its advance and creates the 1st local distribution which produces a buying climax, where volume and spread increases while price is between the 47-60k range the remaining supply is distributed by the composite operator. With intense buying substantially diminished as the composite operator takes advantage of the euphoria in the market to unload their remaining supply they continue to unload supply driving price down this is the automatic reaction. The low of this sell off helps define the lower boundary of the distribution trading range. The secondary test occurs as price revisits the 1st local distribution range to test the supply/demand balance at those price levels. Supply heavily outweighs demand and price moves to the lower boundary of the trading range. After this occurs price bleeds down to the lower boundary of the macro trading range as the 40-30k range completes a local macro accumulation phase. A sign of weakness is observed in the macro range as price moves below the 30k level and is bought up quite aggressively forming the next phase of the macro distribution. This move below 30k that is bought with high spread and volume is the spring component of the local accumulation range between 30-40k. We can now presume that the next phase of the range resulting in the second Local distribution top was the result of a large market maker that is now insolvent utilizing heavy margin to drive price into an upthrust. The upthrust after distribution where demand pushing price above the upper boundary of the range is the distributional counterpart to the spring and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above the resistance of the trading range. As demand fails to sustain price at levels above the trading range the top is in and the composite operator now seeks to distribute the remaining supply on the market. Multiple last points of supply occur as supply is being unloaded on weak rallies as the market has difficulty advancing upward. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. Last points of supply represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of distribution before markdown begins. The final Sign of weakness occurs as price moves below and consolidates under the lower boundary of the trading range before a final last point of supply as the last waves of large operators unload so markdown can begin.
Short
by Armanhammer
1
Finish the wolfe wave around 1448Target box near term is blue box with point target 1448, solid green trajectory should respect timeline drawn, dashed extensions is just illustrative that it will bounce after the move and subsequent retracement. Has resistance at current level which it will break with explosive upside in coming days - has been re-accumulating for over a week. The pullback from 1400s will likely be a backup/retest of the accumulation range breakout, this is the SoS
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by JerryManders
1
Classic BTC Wyckoff Distribution RangeBTC has formed a classic Wyckoff distribution range, and if my hunch is correct, we are currently trending in the final LPSY (last point of supply). This is where retail traders hoping for a moonshot rush into positions only to get smashed by a battery of short positions put in place by Smart Money. We've already seen this happening, with the rally to 17.5 a few days ago, only to retrace back to the 16.8 zone on increased supply. I've been swing trading and analyzing cryptocurrencies for a long time. These Wyckoff schematics are wickedly accurate and rarely deviate off the beaten path, because, ultimately, human beings are controlled by fear and greed in the markets, and until these twin motivating factors are dealt with, price action will create these predictable waves. If you have strong hands, patience, and like big wins, be sure to SUBSCRIBE to this channel. Here's why: I track all USD-paired cryptocurrencies on all the major CEXs and seek out the most lucrative swing trades and runners. All my charts are clean, straightforward, and easy-to-follow with exceptional win rates ranging between 80-85%. Check my chart history and see for yourself. My TA is based on a combo of Volume Spread Analysis, Wyckoff, EW theory & Fibonacci ratios. Stop getting smashed and start winning in crypto. My charts will teach you how. *Not financial advice. DYOR and trade at your own risk.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by jalapablo
4
EURNZD CASE STUDY 1:60 RRLooking around on this past entry that I have analysed back then. POV: The analisys was right but I didin't took the entry. So first of all we were looking for possibles sells entry's on the Distribution structure formed, at the the end of September to October. Continuing with the market direction we see that price broke structure to the low and created a new LL on the daily (1D). We missed the first entry's before BOS (Break of Structure), but as we know, we always going to have another or better entry, if we missed the first one. The market is full of opportunities. What we see? Price went and retested a Weekly POI (Point of Interest) and then broke structure to the downside. 1º Confirm that price is going to do a correction 2º Look for possibles zones of supply or OB 3º Hold the trade if price brake a LL again Looking for our supply zone. If we zoom in on the ENTRY 2, we can see 2 possibilities for entries; the first one is the NULL ZONE, it has a OB that was partly mitigated. And the second zone is an OB+ IMBALANCE on a blue box, that was refine on the 5m TMF (Time Frame) Why did we choose this POI? The zone of supply lead to the BOS (Break of Structure), the second confluence is that is a OB on the 1D TMF
by BRWGTRADING
Ethereum: Wyckoff/VSA Ascending WedgeA bearish ascending wedge has emerged in ETH, reaching back up to the already-mitigated liquidity void hovering between 1300-1350K. Look for a decisive retracement in price if this void is touched again, as this is the sell order block MMs are dropping their supply at profit. The underlying Fibonacci retracement zones can either be used for shorts for bear investors, or DCA points for bulls. If you have strong hands, patience, and like big wins, be sure to SUBSCRIBE to this channel. Here's why: I track all USD-paired cryptocurrencies on all the major CEXs and seek out the most lucrative swing trades and runners. All my charts are clean, straightforward, and easy-to-follow with exceptional win rates ranging between 80-85%. Check my chart history and see for yourself. My TA is based on a combo of Volume Spread Analysis, Wyckoff, EW theory & Fibonacci ratios. Stop getting smashed and start winning in crypto. My charts will teach you how. *Not financial advice. DYOR and trade at your own risk.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by jalapablo
2