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Wyckoff

bitcoin. $25,000 or $12,000, which is earlier BTCUSDTHi all. Let's start the analysis with higher TFs. This will allow us to form a medium-term view of the BTC price movement 1M TF After the price filled more than 50% of the imbalance in the monthly TF, the price got a reaction. It is 12 days to the close of the monthly candle, but if the monthly candle closes exactly as it is now in the screenshot, then the monthly OB, which was formed in the POI, will be formed. 2W TF On the two-week TF, an order block has formed, which pulls liquidity away from the June low. An important support zone has been formed, from which the upward rally could continue. 1W TF On the weekly TF you can see the structure. The main structure is marked in blue and the sub-structure is marked in yellow. Plus, the marked orderblock on the weekly TF has been updated, which means it is losing its relevance. Considering that there is already a bullish orderblock on the 2W TF, it is possible to remove all of the substructure hives of the weekly chart. In addition, all of the previous orders on the weekly TF have already been tested, which means that their validity is questionable; they can both work out and be stitched (it is better not to pay much attention to them). Assuming that we have a range. And there was a deviation from the bottom, then it is logical to expect a deviation at the upper boundary of the rand. Especially if we consider the reaction from the monthly FWG, the formation of the orderblock on the 2W TF, and the fact that previous orderblocks have already been tested. Bottom line, the bias is more bullish. To work out this scenario, we need a continuation of the bullish orderflow of the 1D TF. 1D TF On the daily timeframe we observe a bullish OF. This growth was impulsive, during this rally, the price did not mitigate and after updating the old high, we should see a good correction. Personally for me long positions will be relevant in the area of the daily imbalance and mitigating block. If the price holds above 16,260 (there may be sweeps), the continuation of the bullish rally is quite realistic. If a long set-up is formed in this area on the daily or at least 4H TF, the scenario with the deviation at the upper border of the channel on the weekly TF is relevant. Targets The targets in this case would be HH 1D, the highs of the weekly TF substructure, the order block of the weekly TF (since it is a structural element of the weekly TF) and the filling of the monthly imbalance. There is no need to use this information "foolishly." Watch the price formation and watch your money management
by Patronofbargain
1
BTC - wyckoff analysis (2nd update)Hi all, I would like to update my privous wyckoff analysis for BTC. Globally, the structure and expected planning for BTC prices are the same. This time, there is one change: The second ST as SOW (*) appeared after PPI and CPI releases. In the chart, I highlight also the schedule of the passed and future FOMC meetings (black) and CPI releases (blue). We all know how important these events are. It can be seen that BTC and markets immediately react to each CPI release, usually reversal to the downtrend, from June (at least). However, we see two times when BTC didn't fall after CPI. The first time, it was in mid July and uptrend was starting with a hammer candle. The second time was yesterday with a similar candle. Let's see what is coming next. (*) Following Wyckoff theory, one may observe several retests of support (ST) during a phase. We are in Phase-B.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by evasivesteering
6
Bitcoin, the BIG PICTUREFor those of you that have been following me and @Mayfair_Ventures there is nothing new yet apart from more evidence that our picture is correct. The Monthly and Weekly Elliott Waves shown are unchanged. We know that technically the Monthly is broken, but as we are not religious fundamentalist Elliotticians we don't mind. The new data we see in this picture is the high volume week (the highest ever) and the accumulation visible in Commitments of Traders data, seen in our CoT tool below. These two facts are new evidence of the big players accumulating ready for the next bull market in Crypto. For us, this is the start of the process, which may have some months to play out. It's just nice to see some more signs supporting our theory. Don't use margin to get long here. We expect further bumps in the road, and there will be more and higher probability opportunities along the way. If you are long cash like I am, then you can't get stopped out, and this new evidence gives confidence to add to longs as we get dips in the coming months. You can get the CoT tool for free by going to our website, and clicking "GET A FREE INDICATOR". CoT data is released weekly in arrears, so it's great for picking up long term changes in trends like this. Short-term we expect a series of rallies to clear out the shorts and get crypto twitter buzzing, followed by another dump to catch all the Youtube/Twitter influencers and their orbiters with their pants down. This market doesn't give anyone a smooth ride. Once everyone has given up, then it's rally time. Stay calm. I'm calm because I'm already long down here and can't get margin calls.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Varcoe
10
BTC: Possible False Rally Exit Liquidity Before Sell OffHigh possibility of another liquidity grab before BTC falls back into the macro falling wedge, and back to macrotrend support. Please beware of any rallies after this point, especially those reaching up to the 18-18.3K range. As I teach my group, these are often classic bull traps that occur past the macrotrend resistance, where unsuspecting retail traders are tempted to FOMO into a pump thinking we've broke structure. As always, we must carefully monitor the volume & price spread for any movement this side of the macro structure. Happy & safe trades to everyone! **Have strong hands, patience, and like big wins? Be sure to SUBSCRIBE to this channel. Here's why: I track all USD-paired cryptocurrencies on all the major CEXs and seek out the most lucrative swing trades. All my charts are clean and easy-to-follow with exceptional win rates ranging consistently between 80-85%. My TA is based off a combination of Wyckoff/Volume Spread Analysis & Fibonacci Ratios. Stop getting smashed and start winning in crypto. My charts will teach you how. *Not a financial advisor. Trade at your own risk.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by jalapablo
1
Easy Bitcoin, easier than you think. Don't get excited! It's not just yet. But the fact it's become institutionalised, means it's so much easier to follow it's bias. Back at the end of 2021; this chart was popular amongst Crypto fans. The only issue is, it had ZERO logic backing it up. When a trend is established, it needs to re-generate to grow again. A second wind as such. Look how ridiculous this looks on a regular chart not log scale. You see, at the end of a major rally - you would expect the price to be above moving averages. This is logical, price moves up and up and up. Guess where the moving average follows? It's an average that moves , hint in it's title. ;-) Instead of giving a bias with extension levels - tapping liquidity for it's breather. Here's a link to the post. This is the outcome. Inside these moves, is clearly defined logic. They become obvious later on, but prior to the event. Just as easy to spot to be honest. You just need a little time to learn the process. The next obvious move has just tipped it's hat. Patience is key. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
Gap fill down completed, back to 240sI posted an idea back in October where I predicted MSFT would hit an initial target of 265 (bottom of yellow box). It reached low 260s and fell just shy of that, leaving a gap open. It pulled back to fill that gap today. Market is setup for a bounce in the coming weeks, and MSFT will follow. For MSFT I see the pop post Oct earnings as a sign of strength (SoS) after accumulating - this pullback is the backup/retest of support. From here it will run to fill gap at min (237) and likely continue into the 240s by Jan 20. Will re-eval there. The play on this discount today is the Jan 20 235 calls.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by JerryManders
RLinda ! BTCUSD -> Price in Phase C of Wyckoff Accumulation Bitcoin has been in a narrow consolidation phase between the 0.5 Fibonacci level (16926) and the 0.618 Fibonacci level (16584) for the last few days. Before that, the price fell hard from a high of 18373 to a local low of 16293. The fall is based on fundamentals, mainly related to the US Fed press release An interesting situation is forming on the daily chart, which strongly resembles the "Wyckoff Accumulation Phase", which is a period of sideways movement and range that occurs after a prolonged downtrend. This is the area where the bigger players try to build positions and shake out the smaller fish without causing a further price drop or the start of a new trend. They seek to maintain this phase until all of their positions are filled, hence the name "accumulation." There are six distinct parts of the Wyckoff Accumulation Phase, each serving an important function: "Preliminary Support", "Sell Culmination", Automatic Rally, Secondary Test, Spring and finally, the last point of support, support and sign of strength. The accumulation phase consists of six distinct parts, each with an important function. I have labeled these areas on the Bitcoin chart. Below are all the phases and labels for reference. 1 - Preliminary Support Occurs after a prolonged move down and we begin to see signs of high volume and spread widening. We are also seeing the first signs that selling may be coming to an end once buyers start to show up. 2 - Selling Climax This is where "Preliminary Support" fails, and the price begins to decline sharply. This is the phase of panic selling. At this point prices can go well above their norms and spreads can widen to the extremes. Often the price closes far from the low and the candlestick chart shows a very large wick. 3 - (AR) Auto Rally This is the part where late sellers are punished. After the price has fallen sharply and selling pressure is no longer predominant, the buyers cause the price to reverse with almost the same level of intensity as the selling climax, but in the opposite direction. This is the result of short sellers closing positions. The maximum of this point will often define the extremum of the upper range for the subsequent consolidation. 4 - (ST in Phase B) - Secondary Test in Phase II This is when price re-visits the lows of the structure, but in a much more controlled manner. Volume should not be increased by sellers. It is quite common to have multiple secondary tests. 5 - Spring This is the point at which a hard test of the low suddenly occurs again to mislead participants into believing that the trend is resuming downward. It is essentially a shakeout. It should be noted that this movement is not always required. From here, the price should react by quickly regaining the lost previous structural level. 6 - (LPS, BU, SOS) The last point of support, support and a sign of strength These subsequent patterns of behavior should be clear shifts in price action from prior activity to the beginning of the range. This is where price begins to rebuild the microstructural anchor points that were established earlier. Often a sign of strength can indeed occur just after spring. It will be a very quick and one-sided move, which means that buyers are in complete control. Volume near the end of the range should be high and lead to significant case coverage. What follows that range is known as the markup. By then the case is done, and the market is often left chasing an upward move, resulting in a prolonged positive reaction. Ultimately, the purpose of this whole structure is to cause turmoil and confusion so that the bigger players can get bids from the smaller players. One of the most important details in this exercise is the observed volume. We want to see a high volume sell-off at the beginning of the range followed by a return to low volume. Most importantly, after the spring and eventually through the SOS and markup, we should see that buying volume has a significant impact on price movement. From a fundamental analysis point of view: Bitcoin will presumably begin to behave more steadily and show hints of recovery only when the Fed moves to soften its policy. From a technical analysis point of view: Price is sandwiched between the 16926 and 16584 levels after a strong drop. A narrow consolidation and energy set in with false breakdowns of both consolidation boundaries is forming. From a previous idea: Bitcoin, after testing the resistance of the price channel and completing the formation of the fifth Elliott trend wave, moves into the ABC correction phase, in the format of this movement the price exits the channel down. The price stops at the Fibo level of 0.618, which may be a signal for a pullback and start of formation of a new wave (the screenshot below will show the structure of the expected movement). If the bulls hold the level of 16584, the price may go up to the peak of correction B I expect that after the pre-breakdown consolidation is completed, the price may break through the 16926 resistance and recover to the 17267 level Regards to R. Linda! The source of the accumulation information is the resources "StockCharts" and "WyckoffAnalytics"
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RLinda
53
XAUUSD Short PlanContinue the Wyckoff methodology and Volume Profile series, today I will do the analysis of XAUUSD. We can assume/define the Buying climax starting from Dec 15, then the price moves down to up, while the volume is just down, which means this wave may not be good - even if the price is still sideways up (Phase A). After that, take a look carefully at Phase B of this channel, the price is continuously sideways but the structure of the volume is broken with a climatic volume at the middle of the range - It is a warning signal as it should not appear as a general rule in the accumulation schemes and therefore could be a footprint to add in favor of the downward control. Focus in Phase C - UTAD, the price tries to leave the value area of the composite profile but is strongly rejected (bear engulfing candles - Dec 27 & 28). The market is not interested in trading at higher prices and that's a new signal is added in favor of sellers. The last signal: Do you see the price's momentum is very weak when it reaches back the UTAD? ----- Once again, this setup looks very basic, but it's really effective. Let's follow the plan and see what will happen.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by yinfire