GAP BACK TO 2022 OPEN ?- Price is back above 2022 Mid-level
- 2022 Open = 2022 High = 2023 Yearly R1 = Imbalance
- If Dollar-weakness continues in DEC a rally higher is likely
- Wyckoff accumulation-pattern completed
- Look to buy the retrace begin DEC
Wyckoff
BTC: Possible Retracement Following Liquidity GrabBTC is facing more downside, but this might not come before a series of bull traps. Overwhelming supply predominance within the macro pennant, with isolated demand spikes unable to break trend resistance (upper dotted line). As the price action meanders toward the bear triangle's apex, we see narrowing spread with supply bars steadily building. This means that the MMs are careful to hold range, to give the illusion BTC is not as bearish as it looks. In these scenarios it is not uncommon to see a sudden sign of strength to entice retail traders to buy into a UTAD (upthrust after distribution) before dumping at the supply order blocks waiting above.
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BTC Accumulation phase? Let's decodeHello traders and followers. It is with great pleasure that i am sharing my analysis with you so if you enjoy my work please like and follow, this encourages me to continue to do what i do.
In today's analysis we are going to take a look at the 6h chart on BTC and most precisely at the key elements of an accumulation phase according to the Wyckoff method.
Before we tackle the accumulation i just want to note that the price is now trying to escape a simmetrical triangle but with low volume, therefore a lot of chances for the price action to go sideways.
Is the range we are in an accumulation?
Now, don't get me wrong, i know that the range is not formed properly yet, but we can see some key characteristics of accumulations happening in this young range.
- Decrease in volume and volatility as the range develops . There is less and less available supply and the price fluctuations are gradually reduced
- Testing the upper area with low volume , suggesting an absence of interest in selling, the exception will be when the price will be ready to initiate a breakout.
- Bearish false breakout (springs). We've had one but didnt act like a spring.
- Bullish candles are bigger than bearish ones. This one is 50/50 , slightly better on the bull side.
- Development of rising highs and lows. This is pretty obvious, due to the triangle formation we are slightly going up.
Conclusion:
Technically this is not looking bad... really , if we were to ignore all the fundamental context around crypto , this would be a perfect area to enter long term, but the reality is different, fundamentals strike from nowhere and we ca not ignore this. I am keeping my bearish bias but i am also considering the possibility of this being an accumulation area.
I guess the exit and close above the range will heavily strengthen this assumption.
Till next time.
GOLD D1: DROP WHILE DOLLAR RETRACES UP- Looking for GOLD to weaken while Dollar retraces up
- Previous breaker that took out sell-side stops needs to offer support
- Dollar should fall again after the retrace
- That would be the signal to go long GOLD again
- Upside target is 1 deviation up = GAP-resistance
NATGAS UP AS TEMRATURES DROP ?- Tempratures are dropping in EU after a relatively soft Autumn
- Cold weather should increase demand for NATGAS
- NATGAS in a up-sloping Wyckoff channel
- Looking for a 1 deviation run higher
- Lower GAP is support
- Mid GAP should offer support once broken
- Higher GAP is target = 2nd DEV = Monthly R2