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Wyckoff

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly - BTC to $430 000 (there's a catc The Good: $430k is in slight 🚀 The Bad: $7-$9k will come first ⚡ The Ugly: it'll take 4 years to reach the top, 3 years of which in a bear market. 🐻 Despite the high volume in the recent weeks BTC was unable to push through $25 200 or hold the $23 800 resistance that flipped support for a short while! This is very significant and paints a grim picture, especially when paired with the state the US economy and the high inflation. This price action is usually characteristic for the PS stage in a Wyckoff Accumulation, where institutional buyers accumulate the asset so that they have enough of it to sell through major resistance levels (and subsequently buy back at a discount). This in turn triggers a cascade effect, pushing weak hands, who in a state of a panic try to salvage whatever they can and sell everything they have left at a great loss. In the short term we should see a bonce back to $22 600-$22 800k before the final leg down. Bottom price is not guaranteed, but the bottom will almost certainly be at the end of November / beginning of December. To show the potential path I've used an inverted fractal from ADA that covers the accumulation period and the ascend to $3+. Never a financial advice, dyor.
by Rezakov
Wyckoff Schematics broken downBack last year I posted an educational post on the Wyckoff Distribution schematic I was seeing on Bitcoin. This was the logic behind the "Rocket Call" back last March. It was knowing where to search for an accumulation (which it was not) or a distribution. There are a couple of tell tail signs outside of Wyckoff literature that can assist in knowing which is which for various reasons (not for this post). So at the 60k marker first time around, I could see the logic for a Distribution and it revealed it's hand very early on. I wrote this educational post around the topic. Knowing Wyckoff - it's more to do with human psychology than technical analysis - many people said at the time, oh it's 100 years old, can't work in crypto etc, etc. Unfortunately as the human race, we are getting dumber and dumber, making these schematics almost more valuable in today's markets. After we had our move "Rocket" post. I covered another educational post hinting at the accumulation phase - naturally, the price drops and rises as the waves. In this post I covered the key for the terminology used in these schematics. Below you will see some info on the phases of an accumulation schematic. Accumulation Schematic Phase A The selling force decreases, and the downtrend starts to slow down. This phase is usually marked by an increase in trading volume. The Preliminary Support (PS) indicates that some buyers are showing up, but still not enough to stop the downward move. The Selling Climax (SC) is formed by an intense selling activity as investors capitulate. This is often a point of high volatility, where panic selling creates big candlesticks and wicks. The strong drop quickly reverts into a bounce or Automatic Rally (AR), as the excessive supply is absorbed by the buyers. In general, the trading range (TR) of an Accumulation Schematic is defined by the space between the SC low and the AR high. As the name suggests, the Secondary Test (ST) happens when the market drops near the SC region, testing whether the downtrend is really over or not. At this point, the trading volume and market volatility tend to be lower. While the ST often forms a higher low in relation to the SC, that may not always be the case. Phase B Based on Wyckoff’s Law of Cause and Effect, Phase B may be seen as the Cause that leads to an Effect. Essentially, Phase B is the consolidation stage, in which the Composite Man accumulates the highest number of assets. During this stage, the market tends to test both resistance and support levels of the trading range. There may be numerous Secondary Tests (ST) during Phase B. In some cases, they may produce higher highs (bull traps) and lower lows (bear traps) in relation to the SC and AR of the Phase A. Phase C A typical Accumulation Phase C contains what is called a Spring. It often acts as the last bear trap before the market starts making higher lows. During Phase C, the Composite Man ensures that there is little supply left in the market, i.e., the ones that were to sell already did. The Spring often breaks the support levels to stop out traders and mislead investors. We may describe it as a final attempt to buy shares at a lower price before the uptrend starts. The bear trap induces retail investors to give up their holdings. In some cases, however, the support levels manage to hold, and the Spring simply does not occur. In other words, there may be Accumulation Schematics that present all other elements but not the Spring. Still, the overall scheme continues to be valid. Phase D The Phase D represents the transition between the Cause and Effect. It stands between the Accumulation zone (Phase C) and the breakout of the trading range (Phase E). Typically, the Phase D shows a significant increase in trading volume and volatility. It usually has a Last Point Support (LPS), making a higher low before the market moves higher. The LPS often precedes a breakout of the resistance levels, which in turn creates higher highs. This indicates Signs of Strength (SOS), as previous resistances become brand new supports. Despite the somewhat confusing terminology, there may be more than one LPS during Phase D. They often have increased trading volume while testing the new support lines. In some cases, the price may create a small consolidation zone before effectively breaking the bigger trading range and moving to Phase E. Phase E The Phase E is the last stage of an Accumulation Schematic. It is marked by an evident breakout of the trading range, caused by increased market demand. This is when the trading range is effectively broken, and the uptrend starts. There is an awful lot more when it comes to understanding Wyckoff - such as volume, but it is too much to put in a handful of posts. These posts are done to give you an insight into trading Wyckoff. Another useful post on this topic is this below; People tend to look at Wyckoff on a Tick chart, a 1min or 15 minute chart - the same rules apply and are potentially more beneficial and applicable on the higher timeframes, seeing a weekly move play out in terms of a schematic could take several months. It's all about knowing what to look for. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
25
BTC/USDT - Overview 13 08 2022Hello my friend. On the 4-hour TF we see a good order flow, but if you look at the divergence indicator, you can already see a diver. Of course, I would like the cue ball to touch at least the 26700 zone, this is at least, and at best 30 and after that you can go lower, but apparently this will not happen. Vidim has collected a pool of liquidity in the zone 17622-18626. The only thing that confuses us is that when we fall down, we will fall right down to 9850.00-12468.00, this is the only moment that we don’t really like. But you need to understand that when we give growth, it will be a new ATH, so everything is fine.
Long
by smart_money_crypto
Wyckoff still playing out on BTCI have only been in the market 18 months, and have tried/tested many indicators. The only one that has remained consistently true up until this day, is the Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1. It hasn't really faltered at all since people started drawing the comparison early 2021. If it remains true, we will hit ATH before the cycle is done, sometime around the end of June. That said, 18 months is not a long time. I just know what I know, and I know Wyckoff has been freaky accurate since I entered the market.
Long
by D-Rock_Anomaly
10
Bitcoin - Wyckoff says BE BRAVE 💡 Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Consider this quote : "Successful tape reading is a study of force, it requires ability to judge which side has the greatest pulling power and one must have the courage to go with that side." Richard Wyckoff understood that speculating markets is more than just analysis - you also need the courage to follow through on your analysis. Richard Wyckoff is the person famous for creating what we call the Wyckoff Method. Richard Demille Wyckoff (1873–1934) was an early 20th-century pioneer in the technical approach to studying the stock market. He is considered one of the five “titans” of technical analysis , along with Dow, Gann , Elliott and Merrill. At age 15, he took a job as a stock runner for a New York brokerage. Afterwards, while still in his 20s, he became the head of his own firm. He also founded and, for nearly two decades wrote, and edited The Magazine of Wall Street. Wyckoff was an avid student of the markets, as well as an active tape reader and trader. He observed the market activities and campaigns of the legendary stock operators of his time, including JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore. From his observations and interviews with those big-time traders, Wyckoff codified the best practices of Livermore and others into laws, principles and techniques of trading methodology, money management and mental discipline. What I love about looking at charts from a macro view, is that it cancels out the noise. Noise could be anything relating to chop trading, stop hunting and even news articles. Trying to understand the market and it's movements may seem futile, however Richard Wyckoff identified a pattern that could easily be translated as bullish cycles, bearish cycles, and the two brief phases that happens before each. Just before a bull cycle (markup), we have accumulation. Now this may take months or even years. Then, just before the bear cycle (markdown), we see distribution phase. This is very evident across all markets - the price cannot simply go up / go down forever! So what can we do with this information? It makes me back to the quote first mentioned: Have the courage to follow the market cycle. Here are my TOP #3 lessons for trading from Richard Wyckoff: 1)“The Tape Reader’s profits should develop naturally. He should buy or sell because it is the thing to do – not because he wants to make a profit or fears to make a loss” 2)“Man or woman seldom makes a success of anything! That is true of trading stocks, business endeavors or even hobbies! Success in day trading usually results from years of painstaking effort and absolute concentration upon the subject. It requires the devotion of one's whole time and attention to - the tape. He should have no other business or profession. "A man cannot serve two masters," and the tape is a tyrant. One” 3)“Especially he who puts his knowledge into actual practice, is constantly evolving new ideas and making discoveries which modify or nullify his former methods. From each new elevation he enjoys a broader view; what were obstacles disappear; his problems gradually simplify.” _________________ 👀Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 📉 Hit like & Follow 🔔 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Long
by CryptoCheck-
82