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Wyckoff

The Bitcoin Treasure MapThis is an updated idea from the one last night. This idea aims to smooth out some of the points in the phases with new labels minus my consumption induced ramblings. PHASE A - ACCUMULATION ---------------------------------- PSY - Preliminary Supply The first peak is the Preliminary Supply or PSY, which is where some retail traders start to sell BC - Buying Climax Around this time inexperienced investors start to come in and this causes the Buying Climax or BC shortly after the PSY AR - Automatic Reaction This is where institutions start to sell their assets to the newcomers, and this is the Automatic Reaction or AR price tip. ST - Secondary Retes After some time, the institutions will ease off some of the sell pressure and the market will spike back up to form the Secondary Retest or ST, which is usually just below the BC retail rally. PHASE B - MARKUP ---------------------------------- As with Phase A of the accumulation, pattern institutions will occasionally push up the price to keep retail interest and confidence high while they secretly sell. SOW - Sign of Weakness UT - Up Thrust PHASE C - DISTRIBUTION ---------------------------------- In Phase C of the distribution pattern, we see something called the Upthrust After Distribution or UTAD. UTAD - Upthrust After Distribution Whereas the spring is meant to shake out the retail investors, the UTAD is meant to get as many retail investors to buy in as possible through the fomo it causes. Institutions start to aggressively sell to these investors causing the price to fall. This price collapse continues in Phase D of the distribution pattern. PHASE D - MARKDOWN ---------------------------------- The brief pause in the drop is marked by the Last Point Pf Supply or LPSY and is followed by a Sign Of Weakness or SOW, which falls below the support line drawn by the automatic reaction. LPSY - Last Point of Supply SOW - Sign of Weakness PHASE E - END/START ----------- Phase E of the distribution pattern usually blends with phase a of the accumulation pattern, which readies the market for another run-up.
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by SPYvsGME
9
The Bitcoin Treasure MapYou have got to be Wyckoffin kidding me. I felt like Daniel in the Stargate movie when he solved the activation. I was going through some old charts looking for ideas and how charts followed through and this one comment blew my mind. While I was studying Wyckoff theories and created my first chart for bitcoin. I noticed patterns in markets, crypto and other world events. Wyckoff theories got me thinking. I’ll start from the begging if you’re just learning about it. GME AND WYCKOFF’S COMPOSITE MAN My first attempt at using Wyckoff to explain GME. I started connecting global Marco with the crypto world and made this next chart. CHINA CRYPTO CRACKDOWN Only the 3rd chart I had done in TradingView, but it got me hooked in learning markets and finance. It puts the global scale and impact crypto has had on economies, silicone/cpu/technology and the energy industry. I believe China used that blackout to measure how much Crypto was being farmed on their energy. A CRYPTO WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION PATTERN It was my first Wyckoff prediction for bitcoin. This is where you will find the all the phases and labels in this Chart and what they stand for if you’re not familiar with Wyckoff distribution phases. If you hit play and watch the follow through you will see it came pretty close to predicting the climb and fall during the second bitcoin craze. If you read the phases, you will see I added a <— WE ARE HERE in the Secondary Retest. A commenter in Feb this year said that we were already at UTAD and going into LPSY. This chart idea is to create my original, but using my new layouts and this commenters theory that Bitcoin is kaput or not. COINBASE… Wut Doin? I was really getting into understanding Crypto at this point and was fairly sure I found the long sought after Wyckoff Pattern in Bitcoin. Until I discovered Coinbase was hacked and the entire crypto market low latency arbitrage was disaster. You’ve seen the rest as Stocks, Bonds, SPACS, etc.. have started to implode in as liquidity is dried up. SEMICONDUCTORS, CRYPTO AND MARKET SYNCHRONICITY At this point I was fairly certain most if not all big market events in the past 6 years have some tight correlation with semiconductors and capital markets. That includes Archigos, Gamestop, Short Squeezes were all part of this boom and bust cycle. I admit some of my findings may seem hard to believe but somehow here you are still reading. BACK IN THE SADDLE AGAIN Russia Invades Ukraine. It’s always about Energy. If you retrace historical ups and down of the stock market and crypto to world events the impacts are profound and long lasting. This idea was an attempt to see if I could resolve the missing pieces to the Wyckoff puzzle. I didn’t mean to make the trend lines the same as Ukraine flag. I didn’t realize it until after. THERE WILL BE BLOOD Jerome Powell just put a lid on Crypto. By Monday you should start to see the effects on crypto and possible global markets. By Jan 26th 2023 you should see Crypto hit the SOW in Phase D before 1 final bounce and fade below 5k in in 1yr from now… On September 11th no doubt. This mystery is finally solved. I can rest. Only took me a year and a half.. I’m out. Love all you guys. Remember Me.
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by SPYvsGME
8
BTC Wyckoff spring triggered by the ETH merge?Here's something I've been playing around with. The idea is that we're potentially almost at the end of an unusually short Wyckoff accumulation period. Coincidentally, then the spring would fit well with the time of the ETH merge. The merge could mean there's a lot of people that's playing the "buy the rumor, sell the news" game - potentially meaning a lot of gains will move from ETH into BTC and trigger the spring, signalling we're out of the bear market (semi-short term at least). I'm keeping an eye of the price range movements over this weekend to mid next week for a soft confirmation that we're in phase c.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by virkot
Wyckoff Redistribution - 22.8k to 18.3kWyckoff Redistribution to 22.8k First, the fundamentals: Bitcoin is currently in a clear distribution phase, as supported by volume and the fact that big players are selling and small players are buying (seen by the amount of BTC wallets holding BTC increasing, with those wallets having smaller number of BTC in them). Next: A shark pattern has emerged on the 4 hour chart, and BTC has bounced around the 1-0.886 retracement area. Usually in a circumstance like this, Take Profit would be around 50% of BC, which in this case is around the same area of 22.8k. The bounce point from C-D leg would complete the bullish harmonic pattern and can potentially signal the continuation of the downtrend. If we measure the 1.618 of OX we get 18,250. If we measure the 2.236 of a potential CD at 22.8k we get the exact same point - 18,250. Now this is more than just coincidental given the PSY level on the Redistribution schematic. Next, the 2.236 level in harmonics are usually seen in patterns like the Crab, Gartley, Shark or Partizan. This bearish leg can bounce at 1.618 (19.5k) and continue to fall straight down to 2.236 (18,250) which is likely. This is where we close our SHORT and flip LONG. Wyckoff Law mentions how we can have an extreme impulse towards BC (Buying Climax) to test the previous Preliminary Supply. Now there is a reason we are not choosing 23.5k for this (as you can see in the pattern on the right hand side, the point next to the letters "Phase A" is likely to be 23.5k. An automatic rally (AR) can occur when selling volume has diminished. There are likely going to be buyers buying at the 0.5 or 0.618 retracement of CD before last chance SHORT retesting UT/ST around 22.7k. Finally, stocks look like they are about to crash and should drag Bitcoin down with it. DXY is also rallying and showing no signs of slowing down mid term. Also, the 200MA weekly is not that important here but a good resistance level in case we somehow break 22.8k. I think not likely though.
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by reiiss7
4
NEAR - Mixing Harmonic Patterns with WyckoffMixing Harmonic Patterns with Wyckoff Law (and also confirming with Elliot Wave where applicable) can be one of the most effective ways to trade. The AB=CD pattern comes within many Harmonic patterns such as the Shark, Crab or Bat. You can scalp movements like this within confirmed (or very possible) harmonic patterns that all point to a singular number. You can also trade smaller harmonics within bigger harmonics, as long as you map out the bigger harmonic first, so you have an idea where the market is heading mid-long term. In the example above, we use altcoin NEAR Protocol. We first check the 4 hour to find bigger harmonics, and then switch down to the 1 hour or 15 mins and trade those timeframes, depending on what we prefer. Currently, NEAR on the 1 hour timeframe is pointing towards 4.72 via the 1.618 and the 2/2.14 fibs. It makes sense that price would top here, because of the "Preliminary Supply / PSY" Section as seen in Wyckoff Redistribution Schematic #4 (For more info on this, please check my "Link to Related Ideas" below, where I describe this in more detail on a Bitcoin chart. You could also use Elliot Wave analysis here to map out the 5 waves upwards towards 4.72. Perhaps the final 5th wave points to a 1.272 or 1.618 expansion?
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by reiiss7
WYCKOFF analisysTHE CABLE 15 min chart analisys: We can notice a possible accumulation range, we notice that the volumes are not high when the price reaches the resistance line and this means that the interest in selling is shrinking. Now we should follow the price action, price could: 1 retest the support line and create another stronger spring (not likely) 2 moving up strongly and breaking the resistance ( we may consider to open a position ONLY if price retests the resistance line) 3 continuing the ranging market for the next 1-2 days ( in this case we SHOULD NOT open any long position because the accumulation scheme would have failed and it might be a redistributon). Follow me and stay tuned! The Italian trader
by Dragon_Investments
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly - BTC to $430 000 (there's a catc The Good: $430k is in slight 🚀 The Bad: $7-$9k will come first ⚡ The Ugly: it'll take 4 years to reach the top, 3 years of which in a bear market. 🐻 Despite the high volume in the recent weeks BTC was unable to push through $25 200 or hold the $23 800 resistance that flipped support for a short while! This is very significant and paints a grim picture, especially when paired with the state the US economy and the high inflation. This price action is usually characteristic for the PS stage in a Wyckoff Accumulation, where institutional buyers accumulate the asset so that they have enough of it to sell through major resistance levels (and subsequently buy back at a discount). This in turn triggers a cascade effect, pushing weak hands, who in a state of a panic try to salvage whatever they can and sell everything they have left at a great loss. In the short term we should see a bonce back to $22 600-$22 800k before the final leg down. Bottom price is not guaranteed, but the bottom will almost certainly be at the end of November / beginning of December. To show the potential path I've used an inverted fractal from ADA that covers the accumulation period and the ascend to $3+. Never a financial advice, dyor.
by Rezakov
Wyckoff Schematics broken downBack last year I posted an educational post on the Wyckoff Distribution schematic I was seeing on Bitcoin. This was the logic behind the "Rocket Call" back last March. It was knowing where to search for an accumulation (which it was not) or a distribution. There are a couple of tell tail signs outside of Wyckoff literature that can assist in knowing which is which for various reasons (not for this post). So at the 60k marker first time around, I could see the logic for a Distribution and it revealed it's hand very early on. I wrote this educational post around the topic. Knowing Wyckoff - it's more to do with human psychology than technical analysis - many people said at the time, oh it's 100 years old, can't work in crypto etc, etc. Unfortunately as the human race, we are getting dumber and dumber, making these schematics almost more valuable in today's markets. After we had our move "Rocket" post. I covered another educational post hinting at the accumulation phase - naturally, the price drops and rises as the waves. In this post I covered the key for the terminology used in these schematics. Below you will see some info on the phases of an accumulation schematic. Accumulation Schematic Phase A The selling force decreases, and the downtrend starts to slow down. This phase is usually marked by an increase in trading volume. The Preliminary Support (PS) indicates that some buyers are showing up, but still not enough to stop the downward move. The Selling Climax (SC) is formed by an intense selling activity as investors capitulate. This is often a point of high volatility, where panic selling creates big candlesticks and wicks. The strong drop quickly reverts into a bounce or Automatic Rally (AR), as the excessive supply is absorbed by the buyers. In general, the trading range (TR) of an Accumulation Schematic is defined by the space between the SC low and the AR high. As the name suggests, the Secondary Test (ST) happens when the market drops near the SC region, testing whether the downtrend is really over or not. At this point, the trading volume and market volatility tend to be lower. While the ST often forms a higher low in relation to the SC, that may not always be the case. Phase B Based on Wyckoff’s Law of Cause and Effect, Phase B may be seen as the Cause that leads to an Effect. Essentially, Phase B is the consolidation stage, in which the Composite Man accumulates the highest number of assets. During this stage, the market tends to test both resistance and support levels of the trading range. There may be numerous Secondary Tests (ST) during Phase B. In some cases, they may produce higher highs (bull traps) and lower lows (bear traps) in relation to the SC and AR of the Phase A. Phase C A typical Accumulation Phase C contains what is called a Spring. It often acts as the last bear trap before the market starts making higher lows. During Phase C, the Composite Man ensures that there is little supply left in the market, i.e., the ones that were to sell already did. The Spring often breaks the support levels to stop out traders and mislead investors. We may describe it as a final attempt to buy shares at a lower price before the uptrend starts. The bear trap induces retail investors to give up their holdings. In some cases, however, the support levels manage to hold, and the Spring simply does not occur. In other words, there may be Accumulation Schematics that present all other elements but not the Spring. Still, the overall scheme continues to be valid. Phase D The Phase D represents the transition between the Cause and Effect. It stands between the Accumulation zone (Phase C) and the breakout of the trading range (Phase E). Typically, the Phase D shows a significant increase in trading volume and volatility. It usually has a Last Point Support (LPS), making a higher low before the market moves higher. The LPS often precedes a breakout of the resistance levels, which in turn creates higher highs. This indicates Signs of Strength (SOS), as previous resistances become brand new supports. Despite the somewhat confusing terminology, there may be more than one LPS during Phase D. They often have increased trading volume while testing the new support lines. In some cases, the price may create a small consolidation zone before effectively breaking the bigger trading range and moving to Phase E. Phase E The Phase E is the last stage of an Accumulation Schematic. It is marked by an evident breakout of the trading range, caused by increased market demand. This is when the trading range is effectively broken, and the uptrend starts. There is an awful lot more when it comes to understanding Wyckoff - such as volume, but it is too much to put in a handful of posts. These posts are done to give you an insight into trading Wyckoff. Another useful post on this topic is this below; People tend to look at Wyckoff on a Tick chart, a 1min or 15 minute chart - the same rules apply and are potentially more beneficial and applicable on the higher timeframes, seeing a weekly move play out in terms of a schematic could take several months. It's all about knowing what to look for. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
25