Get started

Wyckoff

Look for Wyckoff in the right places.Since my partner @Mayfair_Ventures started talking bearish about BTC in March 2021, and also talking about Wyckoff theory, a lot of commentators picked up on it and made Wyckoff more widely known. Most likely they read up on it quickly and got some kind of understanding, but unless you have been using it for a while in anger, as in, making real trading decisions based on it, it's not that easy to use. There is ALWAYS a bigger picture to look at. Also, you rarely get a perfect Wyckoff. One person's spring is another's confirmation that this is a distribution. Like all trading, there is a combination of signs. Take this accumulation from Summer 2021. It only proved it was accumulation when it exited the ranger to the upside. You had to wait for the retest to get a sensible trade. Even then, the overall risk reward was at best mediocre, and no one in the crypto space had the patience to wait almost 7 weeks for it, instead getting rinsed at $50k and likely stopped out. And also remember the narrative was around the Elliott Wave that we'd outlined, because you can't just rely on Wyckoff, or any one thing , if you want a sensible trading strategy. Right now, for a number of sensible logical reasons outlined in the attached posts and videos, I am looking for Wyckoff Distribution. My bias is downward. If you want to know why, look at the other posts, I'm not re-hashing it all again here. The important thing is the pattern I expect to see, involving a significant break of the consolidation structure to the downside and then a retest of the zone. Hmmm.... I spoke in earlier posts about there being a chance of a final upthrust above the ATH, just to sucker the last few in. I think he chances of this are reduced to about 5-10% now, given recent price action. The middle of the consolidation ($66K) seems like the top for now. If it retests and fails, then it may be time to pull the trigger. Please bear in mind that BTC is now a mature instrument, and the days of exponential prices are gone. Good luck, because it's better to be lucky than good, most of the time!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Paul_Varcoe
GEHC 1H Long Swing Aggressive Trend TradeAggressive Trend Trade - short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + volumed 2Sp- + weak test + first bullish bar closed entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily Trend "+ long impulse + T2 level + 1/2 correction + support level + volumed 2Sp- - independent approach" Monthly trend "+ long impulse + SOS test level + 1/2 correction + support level + volumed 2Sp+ + weak test" GEHC @NASDAQ.NMS Sell Stop 79.68 LMT 81.40, GTC Sell Limit 84.76, GTC
NASDAQ:GEHCLong
by MishaSuvorov
Lululemon: Downward Dog Days Ahead? - A Wyckoff Distr AnalysisINTRO I have been sitting on this idea for a while and finally decided to put the pen to the pad. For the past three years, there have been signs that Lululemon's stock may be destined for a decline. This trade idea will explore the potential for a downtrend using Wyckoff analysis, a technical analysis pattern used to identify trends within a market cycle. The Wyckoff Distribution theory suggests that large institutions subtly distribute their holdings and initiate short positions before a significant price decline. This distribution unfolds in five distinct phases, each with its own characteristics. In this article, I'll describe these phases and analyze how they might be seen in Lululemon's case. For reference, this is the schematic I will be comparing my LULU case to. The Setup The company's story began in 2008 with its founding. Like most companies, it was affected by the 2008 financial crisis and faced challenges in its performance. However, it recovered strongly over the next 3 years, with its stock price increasing by almost 3,700% from its low in 2009 to its high in 2012. From 2012 to 2018, the stock underperformed as its valuation took some time to catch up. During this period, LULU steadily improved its financial performance, attracting the attention of smart investors who began accumulating shares. Phase A The distribution phase marks the end of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, buyers have been dominant, but now we see evidence of institutional selling with the preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax (BC). The BC indicates the end of the uptrend as institutions freely unload shares. The low created after the BC is called the automatic reaction (AR). This low is important because it represents the lowest price at which institutions are willing to sell their shares. The AR and BC form our distribution channel, and there will be secondary tests (ST) of these ranges. Phase B Phase B functions to create momentum in preparation for a new downtrend. During this phase, institutions and large professional interests sell off their holdings and start taking short positions. This is typically marked by low-volume rallies and high-volume declines. Additionally, we may witness signs of weakness (SOW) and upthrusts (UT), which are further tests of supply and demand as institutions assess interest. Note the volume as the stock price advances and declines. Phase C Phase C is an optional phase that primarily serves as a test of the remaining demand. You can identify it by the UpThrust After Distribution (UTAD), which is a price move above the trading channel resistance that quickly reverses and closes back within the channel. It is a bull trap – it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality, it is intended to trick uninformed break-out traders. It is used to snag additional shares short at elevated prices before a decline. Note the volume spike to create the UTAD and the volume spike to take it away. Phase D In Phase D, there is growing evidence that the uptrend is coming to an end. Sellers take control, leading to a clear break of support or a decline below the midpoint of the trading channel after a UT or UTAD. During this phase, there are typically several weak rallies, each marked by the last point of supply (LPSY). Phase E The final phase of the cycle is Phase E. It depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the channel to the downside and supply is in control. This represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the newly formed downtrend are quickly washed with selling. We haven't entered Phase E yet, but the chart is currently aligning well with our expectations. Given that the pattern has taken 3 years to form, it will likely result in a longer-term short. I believe that targeting the 150s is reasonable if the analysis is accurate. I would appreciate hearing your thoughts on this.
NASDAQ:LULUShort
by Decam9
9
NLMK Daytrade 5M Conservative CounterTrend TradeConservative CounterTrend Trade + long impulse + SOS level - strong approach + volumed 2Sp- + weak test? + first bullish bar closed entry Calculated affordable virtual stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Hourly CounterTrend "- short impulse - unvolumed TE / T1 level + support level + biggest volume 2Sp-" Daily CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed TE / T1 + support level + volumed manipulation" Monthly Trend "+ long impulse + T2 level + support level"
RUS:NLMKLong
by MishaSuvorov