Combining wyckoff's theory with ONCHAIN data"This is a hypothesis that needs more testing to be more precise."
Wyckoff's theory t is one of the most influential theories of market expression, and the most important components of which are lateral movement areas and trends. This theory turns the graph into something like Dots and lines (stations and paths). But it is not as easy to use as written in books. After getting acquainted with Wyckoff's theory, I read several books on the subject, hoping that they could help me identify this area of lateral movement, the area of accumulation, or distribution. But there was a fundamental drawback. It is challenging to diagnose this issue. In fact, the rules discussed in these books are highly interpretive and subjective, and two different individual traders may come to exactly opposite conclusions based on their interpretation.
But as I became more familiar with the onchain analysis, an idea came to my mind that might be useful for more objectively recognizing charts based on Wyckoff's theory.
Composite Man: Wyckoff proposed a theory to help understand price movements in stocks. this is the “Composite Man” theory. (The same concept of whales or strong hands.)
he said: “…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
In fact, composite Man is a hypothetical man who has so much money and stocks that when he wants he can gradually increase the price by buying stocks and creating demand, and when the price goes high enough he selles his stock and lower the price. The composite man is the main player in the market. Wyckoff says that if you want to make a good profit from the market, figure out what a composite man game is.
In fact, having a way of showing us where the Composite Man is in the market, can help us understand future trends
Who are the strong hands in the cryptocurrency market? (I use the strong hand word here instead of the composite man)
There are those who buy or sell more per capita than other market participants (retailers).
To understand this in the bitcoin market, I have used 3 charts and concepts:
1- Sending Addresses: The number of coins addresses making inflow transactions to the exchange.
Indicates the number of sellers' wallets (number of sellers)
2- buyers Addresses: The number of coins addresses making outflow transactions from the exchange.
Indicates the number of buyers' wallets (number of buyers)
3- Pay attention to this issue: the volume of transactions shows both the volume of sales and the buy (Volume of buy and sale is equal in the market)
Considering the above 3 issues, it can be concluded:
- If the number of Receiving Addresses is higher than the Sending Addresses (the number of people who bought compared to the number of those who sold), it indicates that more people bought and fewer people sold (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) So the sellers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the composite man is on the sales side.
- If the number of Sending Addresses is higher than the Receiving Addresses (number of people who have sold more than the number of people who have bought), it indicates that more people have been sellers and fewer people have been buyers (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) so the buyers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the Composite man is on the buying side.
To do this, the oscillator at the bottom of the chart divides the Number of Receiving Addresses by the Number of Sending Addresses. Numbers above 1.2 indicate that the Composite man is on the side of the sellers and should expect a price reduction in the future.
Values below 1 (or 1.2) indicate that the Composite man is on the buyers side. And we should expect price increases in the future.
Wyckoffaccumulation
BTC-USDT Accumulation zone(Wyckoff phases-phase C)Would continue my previous two posts,bitcoin price now in phase(C)what we know about this phase???
Phase C:
During phase C, spring (shakeout)the price below the support level of the trading range quickly reverses and moves back into the trading range.You can consider spring as a period of the coin below the support zone to attract traders and investors.Its a final attempt to purchase the coin at the lowest rates before the rates rise again.its also notable that the bear trap attracts inexperienced investors to sell coins at low rates and wait the dump which evantually does not occur and price instead rise from that point without actually reaching that dumping point.In simple terms, spring (shakeout)is not always useful as trading volume remains unpredictable.
BTC in wyckoff accumulation patternMaybe BTC is in an Wyckoff accumulation pattern on the daily timefrime. The range is between 33-46k, the upper zone is 42-46k, the lower is rise from 35k.
If the upper zone test will success, we are ok... if not, we go to under 30-32k levels again, and the monthly chart and MA lines are not so good.
GBPJPY Counter-Trend Trade 08/03/2022There is a Daily area of Demand that price is heading towards. Price has recently created a new swing low on the 4h timeframe and I am looking for a upwards LTF BOS which will signify a pullback may occur within the swing structure. There is a 4 hour area of Supply that caused price to break past the weak 4h low.
Wyckoff gives positive signNo SC, no apparent secondary testing. But price action at support and resistance still justifies the direction of the big-money's preference and bias of our market. The most important basis for bullish accumulation comes from the moderate decline at the top without volume, in addition the shocking behavior of the bottom telling a rebound. Combining the above events, we have reason to believe that big capital is trying to control the low-priced selling chips, ready to bring the price to a higher level...
Could be this scenario? BTC ULTIMATE WYCKOFF On the BTC graph we have a beautiful scheme of accumulation wyckoff.
The data and chart appear to be bullish and extreme volatility can fundamentally be expected in the coming weeks. The ongoing war allows you to speed up the cycle. The Fed will certainly raise interest rates. In this case, I encounter 2 positive and 2 negative points against each other. What can it be in the end? Let us remember that the market mainly needs liquidity. So stay alert and don't let yourself be soothed for $ 20 and $ 100,000 for BTC. The truth is sometimes in between.
Wish Wyckoff showtimeResults were as expected and clearly belong to the previous management team.No no point for the current team to show any improvements. As stated by the newly appointed team the real turnaround results should be visible somewhere in Q2 2022, so for Q1, I expect a Wyckoff accumulation. Retail is so depressed and tired that eventually nobody will be left except me.
Points looking forward
1. Cash on hand $1b, plenty of time for a turnaround, 0 debt.
2. New C-level executives must prove themselves+receive stock bonuses, so their serious effort is granted.
3. Logistics revenue up 45% YoY, when ad spending resumes this should rocket because shipping times will fall dramatically = happy customers
4. Bad merchants are cleared away, quality is improving slowly but steady = happy customers
5. New redesign in platform launching soon = happy customers
6. Institutional accumulating more and more
7. Everybody(retail) is getting tired and is at a loss of -50% or more, now it's time for a slow death. If markets go up then other stocks will fly and this one will keep accumulating making everyone nervous and anxious, so in the end, everybody will be gone.
My targets for this year
Q1 : $3-3.50
Q2 : $5-7.5
Q3 : $9-12
Q4: $15
My targets for 2023,2024,2025
1. $22
2. $32
3. $60
Stay safe and always have a plan.
Is this beggining of new Wykoff accumulation?The Wyckoff accumulation phase is a sideways and range bound period that occurs after a prolonged downtrend. This is the area where larger players try to build positions. There are six distinct parts of the wyckoff accumulation phase, all with an important function: the “Preliminary Support”, the “Selling Climax”.
BTC/USD Wyckoff AccumulationWe have seen Wyckoff Accumulation, and Distribution method used multiple times by Institutional investors/Whales last year. Looks like the same strategy is getting used this time too. 44k-46k is acting as resistance and 33k-35k as support.
Again this is purely theoretical based on historical data. If the same accumulation method occurs, this is what BTC will look like for the next two months.
This is not financial advice; please DYOR
FTM USD - Potential Wyckoff Accumulation PatternFTM USD looks to be creating a Wyckoff accumulation schematic.
Price is currently showing signs of putting in a "spring" and we could expect to see one last test of the lower level of horizontal support which is where I am aiming to take an entry. Aiming to take profit at the top of the range.
NZD/JPY 4H Wyckoff 23:1 Risk to Reward RatioWyckoff Trading Method is amazing to understand the market and the big players who move the market. The idea is to understand when the market consolidates and wether it is in a distribution/re-distribution phase or accumulation/re-accumulation phase.
Wyckoff gives you a big Risk to Reward Ration if entered right.
In the NZD/JPY attached picture, the price consolidated and before it there was a change of character, there I have identified the PS (Point of Supply). Then the SC (Selling Climax) and AR (Automatic Rally) were identified alongside ST (Second Test) to mark the end of Phase A. Trading Ranges are identified by SC & AR.
Phase B had an Ultimate Thrust followed by an ST for Phase B.
Phase C is where the big players trick you into thinking the price will go down while in fact the want to push it up. That is called the Spring which is then followed by a Test. The Test usually happens to gather the hedge funds companies to join along.
Phase D is where we see Signs of Strength and could be followed by a Last Point of Supply for any companies to join along.
You could enter a trade in Phase C or Phase D only and you could even go on lower timeframes for better entries.
You have to have patiences when trading Wyckoff because you could have Re-accumulation instead of Accumulation. In our online courses, we'll teach you how you can identify the difference :)
Please share and support and let me know what you think in the comments section. Thanks !
BTC USD Nearing Support in the Daily TimeframeShown here is a brief re-accumulation trading range (Jan 22, 2022 to the present) for BTC USD in the daily timeframe. The upper and lower boundaries of this trading range are given by the horizontal black dotted lines. The gray shaded areas show support and resistance zones. Significant bars, which help define important areas of support and resistance, are given by the blue shading. The upper and lower bounds of the linear regression channel are given by the solid green and red lines, respectively. The solid black line is the midpoint of the linear regression channel. In this case, I expect the upper bound of the linear regression channel to act as strong resistance and the lower bound of the linear regression channel to act as strong support.
Shown in the bottom panel is the Phoenix Ascending indicator, comprised of the green exponential moving average (EMA), red stochastic relative strength index (sRSI), blue least squared moving average (LSMA), and the grey energy (GE). The ideal long entry occurs when the red sRSI is on the upswing and is about to be contacted by a green EMA on the upswing.
Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), back up (BU), last point of supply (LPSY), last point of support (LPS), phase A (Ph A), phase B (Ph B), phase C (Ph C), phase D (Ph D), phase E (Ph E), secondary test (ST), selling climax (SC), sign of strength (SOS), sign of weakness (SOW), upthrust (UT).
With regard to Wyckoff events, opening a long position on the BU/LPS typically is a pretty safe entry. The Phoenix Ascending events suggest that it isn’t quite time to open a long position. For example, it’s generally a bad idea to open a long position with the sRSI trending downward. It would be better to wait until it trends upward again. Patience is key to consistently profitable trading.
I would consider opening a long position around $41,600 and closing the position around $48,500. Let’s keep our eyes on this and act accordingly. I will provide an update with regard to my actual trade.
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
What Happens After Wyckoff Accumulation?What Happens After Wyckoff Accumulation? Once the Wyckoff accumulation is over, the price will move sharply higher as demand will exceed support. Buyers will experience an impulsive bullish pressure in which most money is generated from a buying position.
NOVAVAX - Wyckoff accumulation and Elliott waves (UPDATE)After following the price action the last couple of months, it is now so obvious that we are in a Wyckoff accumulation. I look now for a shakeout event to happen on the next following dates, which will test the supply/demand balance in the low 60s, before the back-up.