We lost 4,6% in 20 minutes, like I said ! - BTCUSDT ANALYSISHere we are again, like said in the past analysis (attached to this one) we can see the stop hunt pattern. We lost 4,6% in approximatly 20 minutes and all of it due to the stop hunt pattern.
However it don't seems to be a flush to my eyes (for the moment at least) so this mean that there will be opportunities to enter on the support. And it's not finished too ... Like I said I target the yellow area to consider the movement like a proper spring of Wyckoff accumulation pattern (lower it is in the area better it is).
But we just entered on a closer area which can do the job also (red one). Like I already explained, it's hard to determinate ths SC point, because there is this big flush on the 4th december which hide it in an exaggeration of market. However if the red one had to do the job we will see it directly in the next hours with huge buying volume, but I don't think so and my vision is always to aim the yellow area.
There could be a good conjuncture between the broken resistance of the down channel and this area also (we didn't reinstate into the channel so it's always a support).
Also, even if we go lower than the yellow area, don't forget that we are on support until $39,500 and we are not in bear market until $28,200.
It's an hard moment for some beginners where emotions are roughed up. But it's also the moment where you win most of your momey .... by not losing it .
So don't worry, be happy, be patient for opportunities and like always, only one advice to give : "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" .
PS : Apologize for my english, I do my best. Don't forget to like, follow or even comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue !
Wyckoffaccumulation
Wyckoff Accumulationlooking at a larger timeframe wyckoff accumulation for bitcoin.
seems to me as though the schematic is close to done, now that we are forming a spring.
now let's wait and see what it's next move is. we either:
- break structure to the upside and go on to higher highs,
- or we invalidate the schematic by dropping below the large wick.
Wyckoff Accumulation SchematicWhat Happens After Wyckoff Accumulation?
Once the Wyckoff accumulation is over, the price will move sharply higher as demand will exceed support. Buyers will experience an impulsive bullish pressure in which most money is generated from a buying position.
In the accumulation schematic, the trading range represents the space between the SC low and the AR high. While secondary test usually happens when the market drops near the selling climax region to retest and confirm if the intense selling pressure is prolonged or ended.
Generally, during the accumulation phase, the price remains sidelined for range-bound trading after a strong downtrend. Larger players build positions and eliminate retail traders from the market by creating hopes of a further drop in the price. Once smaller fishes are confident about the price drop, bigger players aim to move higher after filling their positions.
According to Wyckoff, there are six stages in the accumulation phase. These stages include:
● PS — Preliminary Support: The preliminary support appears after a long bearish trend. Traders may experience a high volume and spread widening. It is the first indication that the selling pressure will end, and buyers may control the price.
● SC — Selling Climax: In the second step, the price begins to sell off, violating PS. This is a panic selling phase. After a while, the price may reverse after exhaustion, when the spread might extend to an extreme level. In the end, the price may close far from the low with a long-wicked candle.
● AR — The Automatic Rally: This part can be disastrous for sellers. After the violent selling pressure of the SC, the price reverses and recovers all the movement shown toward the sellers’ direction. This phase indicates that short sellers are covering their positions. The high of this movement determines the high of the range, which is a significant barrier for most buyers.
● ST — The Secondary Test: After the AR, the price will go lower again but controlled. In this movement, sellers’ volumes should be higher, and there may be multiple secondaries in the price.
● ST — The Spring: In this phase, the price will perform a hard test of recent lows that will mislead traders. After watching the spring, average traders will consider the market trend bearish and start selling trades. However, the price should show a swing failure pattern and move up after a shakeout. This phase is prevalent with altcoins that have bottomed out for a considerable time.
● AS — Accumulation Schematic: The last stage of the accumulation cycle. The price should break out from the range with an impulsive bullish pressure and confirm the upcoming bullish trend.
Spring Wickoff Incoming ? - BTCUSDT ANALYSIS - H4Let's go directly to the goal : I said to be careful in my last analysis because we didn't had buying volume on the pullback spot (you can find this analysis attached to this one). Effectively it didn't lie, we are back on the spot with a high volatility risk for the next hours/days.
WHAT WE HAVE ?
Down channel break by the top, one pullback already made, not reintegrated for the moment.
Accumulation pattern of Wyckoff, volumes into it are stables so it can occur to a spring.
6 Stop hunt spots to exploit for institutionnals on one of the more leverage assets.
WHAT I THINK ?
We've seen in last analysis that we didn't had buying volume, so how can we find some ? Two possibilities here, or we retest the support until we absorbed all sellers and buyers overwhelmed them. Or we strongly move down to exhaust sellers and erase them on the next support with a strong buying pressure : typically a spring setup.
The fact that we have some stop hunt spot here into what's can be an accumulation pattern of Wyckoff (I don't take in count the flush because it's clearely an excess of market between volatily, leverage, panic, high spread...) make me think that we will assist to an increased of volatility on the support which will probably occurs to a spring. If it's the case it can take two shapes, one construct with a strong selling pressure and a V-Turn on the support area followed by a strong buying pressure. Or as usual it result in a flush which will go much lower than the support in an excess of volatilty. If, unfortunatly, there is a lot of leverage positions on the stop hunt spot, it will probably be a flush, and loose around 3-4% in a few minutes creating a movement of panic.
WHERE IS THE SUPPORT TO TARGET AN ENTRY ?
If we have buying signal here on the support lines (with buying volumes !), it could be a nice spot for a long, targeting $51,200, no more for the moment and with a small capital exposure.
If we go for a flush spring : just stay away of it, there isn't money to do when you can't bring order in chaos.
If we go for a construct spring : We will probably see the support to target for an entry between $43,300 and $41,800 (gold rectangle area on chart). It's even better that we can do it without reintegrate the down channel, and also because their is a major support zone just below (silver rectangle area on chart).
You can see this setups with gray arrows on chart.
Like always : "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" . Stay patient for opportunities.
PS : Apologize for my english, I do my best. Don't forget to like, follow or even comment if you like, it give me the strength to continue ! I wish you all success you need for 2022, on every side !
GME Wyckoff AccumulationGME has just completed a spring/shakeout and the trend will gradually become bullish. GME IV percentile is at/near the lowest it has been in the past year, and institutions have been using this opportunity to load up stock and options. Options open interest in meme stocks (GME, AMC, NOK, BB) have been sizzling lately. Meme stocks should have an explosive beginning of the year.
GBPUSD possible UP move 15m+The price movement created a trendline at the retracements of the price to the downside. There's a slight liquidity zone just below it, so we are watching this area.
If 1.345 is taken out, then we're entering the liquidity zone below and will be looking for trades there.
In the meantime, keep calm and safe trading.
GBPUSD, 240 pips potential buy setup, Wyckoff analysis in forexWyckoff analysis in forex trading
GBPUSD has a 240 pips potential buy setup.
Wait for confirmation to enter positions.
There's below support level
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This is my personal idea and analysis only.
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AMC — Ghost Wave Reveals Hidden Fib LevelsThis is a rather difficult thing to sum up, but relates to the Creek Finder tool I've been working on.
The other day, I noticed that you could draw a sine wave which perfectly connected the tops of the PSY, BC & SOS with the bottoms of the Spring and Deep ST of this micro-trading range. After drawing it, I realized that drawing a fib from the first ST to the SOS would have perfectly predicted the wave's amplitude. I call this wave the Ghost Wave.
The Ghost wave showed me there was a kind of energy running through this trading range which extended beyond what the candles revealed. So, I took a second fib from the peak to the trough of the ghost wave and then drew sine waves of the same wavelength (but inverted the peaks) between each of the levels of this new fib. As you can see in the notes on the chart, there are several places where these fib waves acted as support and resistance in a way that straight lines would have missed.
I see these as a myriad of creeks over which price must jump on its way out of this trading range.
On my version of this chart, I also have a volume wave of the same wavelength as the ghost wave. Because of scaling issues on published ideas that hasn't been included. But, you can imagine a wave which connects the peaks of the volume bars. Notice how as we come out of the trough of the ghost wave, it will allow for volume to begin to flow in.
Today, I'm watching to see how the stock responds to the bounce after retest of the 238 wave. Will we be able to take each new level? And will the volume flow in under the volume wave as it rises?
Bitcoin manipulation: Wyckoff accumulation patternWhales and institutions change the whole scenario by using trader behaviours and they know everything better than us.
It’s been a brutal couple of weeks for the crypto market. Everything from Bitcoin to shitcoin has shed billions of dollars leading to a 38% crash across the board. The worst part is that every time it looks like the crypto market is recovering some sort of FUD manages to make the news, which causes another massive sell-off.
Then when all hope seems lost and you’re convinced cryptos dead the trend suddenly reverses and the FOMO strikes back. Now, it’s almost as if someone is trying to make you feel fear & greed at just the right time to move the market in a way that makes them money and leaves you empty-handed.
This has been both a meme and a common saying in the crypto space for many years and it sounds like nothing more than a conspiracy theory. But what if I told you that this is exactly and that there is even a way to predict these market moves in the advance.
Ask yourself this. What happens when every trader is relying on the same patterns and indicators? The short answer is that it makes it very profitable for someone to come in and disrupt the market by pushing the price above or below where most people expected it to go.
This is what Richard Wyckoff noticed over 100 years ago while working on Wall Street alongside Financial Titans by JPMorgan and Charles Dow.
Back then the average retail trader was constantly getting wrecked by institutions and large investors who would manipulate prices to essentially scare them out of their stocks and commodities.
t’s easy to forget that we’re not the only ones investing in crypto anymore. The institutions are here and they know much more about trading than we do. They know that most crypto investors don’t know much about technical analysis. They know that most people invested in crypto are consumed by fear & greed. They know all the patterns that seasoned crypto traders are looking for and how to manipulate them out of their positions.
Even while the market bled and the fud was flying institutional investors were buying the dip like mad. As Alex Becker pointed out more than half a trillion dollars was pulled out and put back into the crypto market in the span of just a few hours. That is not normal market behavior and it’s much more than retail investors could possibly afford.
Those are the footprints of the composite man. The institutional investors are playing by their own set of rules.
The craziest part about the Wyckoff Method is that it makes you question the utility of standard technical analysis. After all, the only way to beat the institutions is to play by their rules. Sticking to the basics is going to get you nowhere.
When you take all of this into account, the idea that someone is pulling the strings behind the scenes doesn’t sound like so much of a conspiracy theory. It’s just the way markets have always been.
The real conspiracy theory would be to say that all the institutions doing the price manipulation are using the media to facilitated by putting out fud and fomo at just the right time.
Smart Money BTC - Continued 12182021With the advent of tax loss harvesting, and news of impending tax on unrealised gains the digital currency market experienced a multi-week downturn. At this present moment a #Wykoff Schematic #1 is presenting itself. In order to make entries on support use lower time frames to locate divergence and impending upthrusts. This will most certainly be an uphill climb but follow the blueprint, this should serve as a guide.
AMC -- Creek Finding Tool -- BETAThis week, I've been experimenting with a method of anticipating creek cross moments across a number of securities. Of course, my intention is to create a reliable indicator to overlay on Wyckoff accumulations in order to understand where the high pressure domes of selling, which pin price down, exist and to recognize as early as possible when one of those zones has been crossed.
In Wyckoff, the creek has long been thought of as a meandering band which winds arbitrarily through the trading range, pinning the price below it. And, a strong cross above that line, usually with a long green candle is a sign that buying has overwhelmed selling pressure and a markup phase has begun. But, what if, in the age of algorithmic trading, there is a predictable rhythm to the formation of the creek?
WIth this tool, I'm using Sine Waves pinned to volume spikes (to determine wave length) and Fib Retracement (to determine amplitude.)
The three creeks being tracked here are:
Creek 1: Yellow --
Creek 2: Red -- This resistance band is tied to the regional low (measured from the terminal shakeout spring from the previous trading range) & current high (marked UT). It has been pinning price lower and lower in the trading range and carried us toward the ultimate spring (which I mistimed with the path I drew yesterday.)
Creek 3: Green --
As always, this chart is open source. Please feel free to click "share" then "make it mine" in order to play with it for yourself.
AMC -- Creek Finder -- BETAThis week, I've been experimenting with a method of anticipating creek cross moments across a number of securities. Of course, my intention is to create a reliable indicator to overlay on Wyckoff accumulations in order to understand where the high pressure domes of selling, which pin price down, exist and to recognize as early as possible when one of those zones has been crossed.
In Wyckoff, the creek has long been thought of as a meandering band which winds arbitrarily through the trading range, pinning the price below it. And, a strong cross above that line, usually with a long green candle is a sign that buying has overwhelmed selling pressure and a markup phase has begun. But, what if, in the age of algorithmic trading, there is a predictable rhythm to the formation of the creek?
WIth this tool, I'm using Sine Waves pinned to volume spikes (to determine wave length) and Fib Retracement (to determine amplitude.)
The three creeks being tracked here are:
Creek 1: Green -- This is the earliest creek established by a reverse fib extension drawn from the buying climax down to the selling climax. As you can see, once across this creek, the price ran to UT. Also note how it acts as a reversal indicator. If above this wave with diminishing volume, you can expect a reversal. I see this creek as a key area to cross early the week of Dec. 27th.
Creek 2: Red -- This resistance band is tied to the regional low (measured from the terminal shakeout spring from the previous trading range) & current high (marked UT). It has been pinning price lower and lower in the trading range and carried us toward the ultimate spring (which I mistimed with the path I drew yesterday.)
Creek 3: Yellow -- For this creek, I'm speculating that the move from the lower trading range may repeat. In that lower trading range, a fib pulled from the deepest spring to the apex of reaction out of it defined the lower yellow band. Once across, a retest propelled the price out of the trading range. So, here, I'm anticipating a similar uprise out of the spring formed on Dec. 23rd to a high near the bottom of the macro trading range (marked SOS on this chart) before a meaningful reversal. A cross and retest which sends the price up and out of this trading range would be a significant finding of this tool.
As always, this chart is open source. Please feel free to click "share" then "make it mine" in order to play with it for yourself.
BTCUSDT 4HHi everybody
I think in HIGH TF (D & W) #BTC is in downtrend. (a long shot is 29K $)
Volume is getting low and lower
***
The support zone (40K ~ 42K $) is strong and if it broke it will go to 29K
***
For short-term I saw a ACC wyckoff range.
There is liquidity on 45,500 $. it is going to break. and also look at the volume
I placed two position. wait for conformation.
***
It is a personal opinion.
Thanks
EURAUD, looking for positions at LPS, Wyckoff method in ForexEURAUD Wyckoff analysis
Looking for long positions at LPS.
We need wait to see price action and confirmation in LTF.
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🔰 Attention about this Wyckoff analysis
This is my personal idea and analysis only.
Let's see it as an example or a reference.
You also need your own analysis as well and manage risks.