🚀 TIA: Analyzing the AMD SetupTIA has made a dynamic entry into the cryptocurrency market, showcasing an impressive and rapid upward trajectory. On the 4-hour timeframe, a distinct Accumulation and Manipulation Distribution (AMD) pattern, based on Wyckoff principles, has taken shape. This pattern is often indicative of strategic accumulation before a substantial price surge.
📉 Technical Analysis:
🚀 AMD Pattern:
The Accumulation and Manipulation Distribution (AMD) pattern is characterized by a series of phases:
Accumulation Phase: Smart money accumulates assets quietly.
Markup Phase: A breakout and significant price appreciation occur.
Distribution Phase: Smart money distributes assets to the broader market.
Markdown Phase: A decline in prices as distribution completes.
📈 Trading Dynamics:
💹 Strategic Accumulation:
TIA's price action reflects a phase of strategic accumulation, with informed investors quietly acquiring positions. This often sets the stage for a powerful markup phase.
🚀 Potential for Price Surge:
Following the accumulation phase, the market may experience a sudden and substantial price surge. This is particularly anticipated after the completion of manipulation and distribution.
📉 Breakout Scenarios:
🔼 Bullish Breakout:
With the completion of the AMD pattern, a bullish breakout is anticipated, driving TIA's price upwards. Traders should watch for confirmation signals and favorable market conditions.
🔽 Watch for Distribution Signs:
Caution is advised as the asset progresses through the distribution phase. Signs of distribution may precede a potential markdown phase, and traders should be vigilant for shifts in market dynamics.
📝 Trading Strategy:
🧐 Confirm Breakout Signals:
Traders are encouraged to confirm the bullish breakout by utilizing technical indicators, volume analysis, and other relevant tools.
📈 Risk Management:
Implement sound risk management strategies to navigate potential market fluctuations during the transition from accumulation to markup.
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Wyckoffaccumulation
UNI - Wyckoff Accumulation SOS/LPS + Volume#UNI
I love to see these #Wyckoff Schematics play out, so profitable if you just add patience to your toolkit.
This is exactly what we want to see, after the breach of the heaviest #resistance on chart, then that coil up resting on top of the now #support followed by that retest with heavy #volume sling shotting PA into infinity.
If you missed the Spring and Adam & Eve at the bottom, and somehow all the signs before this, you still have time, you know what to do...
MATIC - Wyckoff SOS + LPS Before Blast Off#MATIC
Textbook Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics, with ideal volume profiles, showing the standard "Sign of Strength" (SOS) Flag while absorbing all the fear sales into one "Last Point of Supply" (LPS) before go time.
Hope this helps...
Dec 19 2023 GBPUSD BUY Trade Activated (pending order) Good day folks!
Another great trade in this currency pair.
Look at daily TF bullish since 1.21020, I often used hedging trade but i think i got this one. Last week was sell then this tuesday, buy trade activated. Always adjust your analysis depending on the actual behavior and do not stay married to your first bias :) .
As i checked 4h-3h-2h-1h, there was an IC (POI created ) when accumulation schematics was introduced last week dec 12 onwards. So i monitor the left side of the chart and also see an IMB in price. I set pending order in my MT5 account so i can still ride the trade even when i am offline.
My trade come to fruition because of HTF bias and then validity in low tf.
I set my trade in lower tf for a better RR . :) .Hopefully my trade will have a momentum until friday, but no more loss in this trade due to the fact that I always take some partials in trades.
I hope you learn on something on this, have a great day.
#accumulation
#wyckoffiantrader
RR: 1:16
Bulls Ready To Take ItSPY has been undergoing accumulation, markup activated 10/21 above 373.93 (will want to see continuation next week for the path to play out in timeline detailed below):
Initial Target 388-393 by end of October 2022 (SoS)
Slight pullback to 377-382 into early November (BU/LPS)
Estimated trajectory following above scenario:
408-419 by December 2022
371-384 going into Jan 2023, likely will re-accumulate here
Attempt breakout of larger downtrend at 395-400 level around Feb. 2023
Goal Target 515-550 (new ATH) by Summer 2023 to end the 13 year bull cycle ; will begin major distribution there
Bigger picture is SPY shows indication that it has completed wave IV via a tripple combo and has been accumulating to start of wave V.
SPY Update - Bullish (final dip)I posted a bullish trajectory for SPY back on 10/21/2022 (linked: "Bulls Ready to Take It") - that hit the exact trajectory up to this point. The idea left off indicating that was the setup pre-breakout; this is a follow up from that with the expected path from here.
There has been major accumulation since June 2022, with 3 minor accumulation zones (hollow green boxes) at the left shoulder, head/spring, and right shoulder. From these I can calculate equilibrium levels (dashed horizontal lines) and critical markup/activation levels (yellow dotted lines). The black and purple trend lines are supply/demand, and the dashed blue are gann angles. The horizontal green are target levels.
The final backup/retest level is SPY 387.58 - given that holds today I am expecting the path toward breakout to begin in the coming weeks:
- Breakout Level is 401.42, a break of that will see explosive upside to initial target of 432-437 by end of March 2023 (this will be the SoS)
- Following that will be the backup/retest to 401.42 by July 2023 (will likely see re-accumulation here)
- Given that holds as support the next target will be the markup to new All Time High by early-to-mid 2024. On the way to ATH expect 464, then re-accumulation to make the new high (after July the trajectory becomes illustrative to show the idea, up until July its literal).
- The end goal is SPY 530-550 but I'll send update when we are closer to that, first need to hold here and see strength to 430s in coming months.
~JM
Futes projected pathBreakout level is 11525, expected path is solid green trajectory:
- Initial target = 13189 by 4/3/2023
- Then pullback to test support at 11525
- If holds, then target = 14565 by 1/15/2024
~Alt path to initial target is most bullish scenario (dashed green trajectory, would need to break all resistance this week):
13189 by 1/30/2023
Enphase Energy - ENH (MAGS) - LongLooks like Enphase is reaching a Wyckoff accumulation phase with channel resistance helping to direct price into the accumulation schematic.
Spring could bounce off resistance turned into support.
Price to seek imbalance at the gap around 0.618/golden fib zone.
This target zone coincides with a line of best fit/trend line through Daily price chart
🔄 BCH: Fractals of Accumulation, Manipulation and DistributionIn the intricate dance of market dynamics, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) appears to be orchestrating a familiar tune, following the classic pattern of accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. Understanding this cyclical behavior may provide valuable insights for traders navigating the BCH landscape.
Chart Analysis: Unraveling the Pattern
Accumulation Phase:
BCH has entered a phase of accumulation, characterized by sideways movement and the formation of a trading range between $177 and $270.
Accumulation suggests the gathering of positions by savvy investors, preparing for a potential upward move.
Manipulation Dynamics:
Historical patterns indicate that BCH often experiences manipulation after accumulating within a range.
Traders should be alert to sudden and unexpected price swings as manipulation unfolds.
Distribution Anticipation:
Following the manipulation phase, BCH typically enters a distribution phase, where accumulated positions are released.
This distribution could lead to a swift decline, potentially revisiting lower support levels.
Projected Scenario: A Cautious Path Forward
Range Trading: $177 to $270:
Traders may anticipate range-bound movements within the $177 to $270 zone as accumulation continues.
Establishing strategic positions within this range might be a prudent approach.
Manipulation Swings:
Be prepared for sudden and sharp price swings, indicating manipulation in progress.
Active risk management is crucial during these volatile periods.
Downside Potential: $160 Target:
In the event of manipulation leading to distribution, a potential downside target is around $160.
This level represents a historical support zone that could attract buying interest.
Upside Momentum: $370 Objective:
Upon completion of the distribution phase, a swift reversal and surge towards $370 may unfold.
This upward momentum could signal the start of a new bullish cycle.
Strategic Approach: Navigating the BCH Landscape
Range Trading Tactics:
Traders can capitalize on the range-bound nature of BCH by strategically entering and exiting positions within the $177 to $270 range.
Risk Mitigation During Manipulation:
In anticipation of manipulation, active risk management, including the use of stop-loss orders, is crucial to safeguarding capital.
Long-Term Perspective:
Long-term investors may view the accumulation phase as an opportunity to accumulate BCH at favorable prices, anticipating the potential for a significant upward move.
Conclusion: BCH's Symphonic Movement
As Bitcoin Cash (BCH) dances through its accumulation, manipulation, and distribution phases, traders and investors alike have the opportunity to decipher the symphony of market dynamics. By understanding and strategically responding to these phases, participants can navigate the BCH landscape with greater confidence.
🔄 Accumulation in Progress | 📉 Anticipating Manipulation | 🔄 Distribution Patterns
❗See related ideas below❗
Share your perspectives on Bitcoin Cash's market movements, contributing to a collaborative analysis that enhances the collective understanding of this digital asset. 💚🚀💚
December 1 2023 - GBPUSD Buy Trade ActivatedHi guys!
I have here a simple trade this week, checking the daily TF of pound dollar, i noticed a supply above (nov. 29 2023) -Nov. 30 move.
After checking the bullish move on daily---> 4h---> 3h-->2h--> 1h. I checked for possible demand zone and set a pending order in my mt5 raw account.
Nov 30 2023--> it reacted to my POI (point of interest) . so i wait until my pending order was activated . Indeed it really touched the price im aiming for and then i look for validity and proof of the zone. wyckoff accumulation on 5 min and 15 min tf. (please check chart for reference.
RR: 1:8
1% of capital aiming for 8 % on this trade.
Another great trade and wisdom from GOD. :)
Patience is always the key.
ZEC USD - Wyckoff Accumulation Phases This analysis is for my own education, I am trying to learn the wyckoff method so please correct me if I am wrong.
Phase A:
We can clearly see the stopping of the previous down trend and the dominany supply.
Preliminary support (PS) is very short lived and followed by continuation of selling climax (SC).
We can see the Automatic Rally (AR) right after the SC. There is a secondary test which is successful but not quiet close to SC support, so there is less selling.
Phase B:
Price swings are wide and high volume throughout Phase B, which takes around 4 years. At times showing Signs of Strength (SOS) within the trade ranges (TRs).
Phase C:
I believe we are now in Phase C, with a strong pullback after some SOS. Price moves below Phase B trade ranges. Volume has been fairly low.
We could call this area LPS - last point of support. I identify this zone to be a bear trap.
This can mark the beginning of a new uptrend soon.
The current crypto market conditions also support this analysis. If we see a sign of strength again soon, it could validate it.
Phase D:
If this analysis is correct, we should see a dominance of demand over supply for Phase D to activate. Expect a price movement towards the top of the trade range.
Indicators:
TLL RSI - heavily oversold
Money flow - shows sign of reversal but still not validated, we need to go above 0.
Volume: Low
EURUSD Longs - A grade setup blueprintThis time we are diving into an A grade setup that was presented to us on the 08/11/2023. After anticipating a bullish move from this exact zone marked out last Sunday's post. I will be breaking down what I would look for once price taps into our higher time frame POI (16hr demand zone on EU). At first I noticed that as price was slowing down momentum, wyckoff accumulation started to become more evident.
During the process of liquidating previous buyers, it changed character on the 10min which left a 5min OB that was unmitigated. From then, my SPRING was confirmed as well as my entry price. In addition to this, the order block was also in line with the 0.78 mark on the fib range and it was at a very discounted area hence why price was volatile as soon as it got tapped in.
As I also realised that price had filled the imbalance left from last Fridays NFP event, I knew price would want to continue in the trend it had set, which was a bullish order flow that consisted of higher highs and higher lows.
Lastly I would set my take profit target to be in areas of liquidity that price would attract to, and in this case it was the amount of untouched Asia highs that was left from previous days. However, I also realised that for price to move back down, it would need to mitigate a supply which was also left above the points of liquidity.
P.S. The mini equal lows that was swept was just extra confluence that price would react off my 5min OB that caused the CHOCH to happen, and because price had perpetual liquidity sweeps, I knew that there was minimal reversal magnets that could try interfere with our trade. Ultimately, this was why we was able to catch a 1:12 RR with basically ZERO DRAWDOWN...
UsdJpy Possible ShortThis is a mixture of Wyckoff and ICT ,so bare with me. We are at the end of the phase cycle. We would technically be in PHASE E, which would be where the market trades outside the TR ( trading range) . Now the market is consolidating as a retest to the top of the TR. It will either hold it or retrace back to 50% of the TR which would also be at an Discounted Area (green zones). We currently in premium aka the red boxes. Liquidity BSL is also resting above from last Thurs and this Wed. Would love to see price grab that while going to EXTREME premium, before shooting down to push PRICE HIGHER... just waiting to see. I got more Lower timeframe ICT based markups if yall mess with this one.
Understanding Bitcoin Price MovementUnderstanding Bitcoin Price Movement through Wyckoff's Theory
Richard Wyckoff, a legendary figure in the world of trading, left us with invaluable insights into price action and market behavior. His principles, outlined in "Charting the Stock Market," lay the foundation for understanding how markets move. Let's delve into two pivotal rules from Wyckoff's playbook:
Rule 1: The Market's Unique Behavior
Wyckoff's first rule reminds us that the market is a dynamic entity. It never repeats the same price action exactly as in the past. Each moment in the market is distinct, shaped by a multitude of factors. Recognizing this uniqueness is essential.
Rule 2: Comparative Analysis
The second rule dovetails with the first. It emphasizes that the true analytical value lies in comparing current price action with historical behavior. By drawing parallels and contrasts, we can extract meaningful insights into market trends.
These two rules serve as the cornerstone for comprehending the Wyckoff Market Cycle theory, which remains influential in modern trading practices.
Wyckoff Market Cycle Theory
Wyckoff introduced a groundbreaking theory based on price action, defining four distinct stages within a price cycle:
1. Accumulation Phase
In this initial stage, institutional demand rises, and bulls begin to assert control. However, price action remains relatively flat, resembling a range-bound structure. Identifying higher lows within this range signals the Accumulation phase, hinting at an impending bullish move.
2. Markup Phase
The second stage, Markup, sees bulls gaining enough momentum to breach the upper boundary of the range. This breakthrough signifies the emergence of a bullish trend.
3. Distribution Phase
Distribution is the third stage, characterized by bears attempting to regain control. Much like the Accumulation phase, price action remains flat, but with a different twist. The sustained failure to establish higher bottoms hints at a looming selloff, depicted by lower tops.
4. Markdown Phase
The final stage, Markdown, marks the onset of a downtrend following the Distribution phase. It signifies that bears have gained the upper hand, driving prices lower. Confirmation of the Markdown occurs when price action breaks below the lower boundary of the horizontal distribution channel on the chart.
The beauty of Wyckoff's theory is its cyclical nature. After the Markdown phase, the entire process restarts with Accumulation, offering traders a framework to navigate the complexities of Bitcoin price movement.
Understanding these principles allows us to discern patterns in Bitcoin's price action and make more informed trading decisions. By embracing the wisdom of Richard Wyckoff, we can navigate the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency trading.
🫶 Thanks for Your attention, sincerely yours, Kateryna.
Wishing You successful trades and unforgettable adventures in the world of cryptocurrencies and the financial market!
BB: Is at the PCZ of a Bullish Gartley and a Bullish Deep CrabBlackBerry is attempting a spring-and-back-test-of-spring at the bottom of the range that it's been trading within since 2012, and the level happens to align with the PCZ of a huge Bullish Deep on the left, to which it has reacted once before, and on its way to testing the zone a second time and back testing the spring. It's also formed a smaller, more localized Bullish Deep Gartley with some hidden Bullish Divergence on the MACD. If it manages to get back above $5 and stay above $5 in the active session, we would then have room to see it pump all the way up to $24.89 really fast as that is the next major level above and near the 200-Month SMA, but if things really want to get serious, we could see BB complete a Full Measured move of this range which would take it all the way up to the 50% retrace up at around $45.39
XAUUSD Outlook Sept 15 Short-Term Short - ACCUMULATION - RALLYOVERALL DAILY TREND:
BULL BIAS in HTF
From a Daily TF perspective, there seems to be a higher timeframe Wyckoff Accu 2 at play.
There is a DTF Rally that is undergoing a pullback sequence and is already at the area of the Daily Fib 618-786
Expectation is that PA will reverse soon to the upside.
DAILY CYCLE POTENTIAL OUTCOMES for today:
D3 shorts/ False Break Reversal for a continuation down to tag 27 ext bear level before finally pulling back up for a long term rally. May do a 300 pip drop before reversal.
Lower TF’s are still heavily bearish
Monday and Tuesday + Yesterday have been down days
Yesterday didn’t quite touch the 382 level so i am extending the Fib. Now, the 382 level is flush with the M15 HBMR and very near the PD’s High.
We still have a 225 pip (75x3) of Fall & WE HAVE NOT REVERSED AT ALL
We are in Prev LOW and has pinned 2 prev day’s lows. We got TRAPPED Traders for sure
WE HAVE DONE AN INITIAL BALANCE BREAKOUT AND Hand now we ALSO HAVE AN OR BREAKOUT but we have not done any retesting.
It’s been consolidating underneath the prev LOW in a 100 pip box range.
I referenced last month, PA and it dropped 300 pips from Monday before starting the conso to reverse back up. May be the same case for Gold. 300 pips is in the 1900 level aligned with 786 which is the level it often reverses from based on historical data.
SO. For today:
it has moved down 25x3 levels
Making LL’s and LH’s = formula for a Pump & Dump
It could potentially pump / wick the following confluence which are very near to each other almost clumped together: 1) HBMR area 2) PDH 3) NY EOD C High 4) Current day’s High which is also Asia Session’s High 5) Intermediate structure 38.2 fib area 6) Prev LOW and 7) OR Low BEFORE DUMPING FURTHER DOWN.
There are still a ton of Demand Areas with a ton of volume below to get liquidity from before rallying up. Quite we are bearish until 1900.
If I'm wrong, then PA could just rally up already.
Gold Long term Wyckoff Re-Accumulation.Gold is currently inside a daily/4h bear channel correction to lower 1800 weekly/monthly demand levels.
Overall trend for gold is still bullish on the weekly/monthly, so a buy in the 1800s is a very good opportunity, which would mean forming a Wyckoff Phase C LPS for a potential rally to 2000 by December or next year.
Failing 1800s or holding 2000 level would mean gold is looking to correct much deeper for the range on the monthly, and potentially an area of 1550 would be a likely target to fill all orders from 1660.