Wyckoffaccumulation
NIO Stock: Is a Spring Reversal Imminent?I had been shorting NIO stock due to the very apparent downtrend as portrayed by the 50 and 100 EMA. However, I noticed that the swings from high to low were getting narrower, signaling a loss in momentum. Throwing some zones on the chart, you can see a small trading range has formed.
I compared the Wyckoff accumulation schematic to the NIO chart. The schematic calls for hard selling followed by strong buying and consolidation. In NIO, there was hard selling in March and May, with strong volume. This indicates that there were large interests selling their shares during this time.
However, in November 2022, we saw a selling climax with strong volume. This was followed by a bounce in price called the automatic reaction (AR). This bounce is likely due to institutional investors buying up the supply. The secondary test, which occurred on expectedly lower volume, further supports this theory.
The millionaire-making question is whether we have seen an ST in phase B. If we have not, it is likely that the trend will continue lower to the sub-$5 range. However, if we have seen an ST, it is likely that we are seeing a spring. A spring is a shakeout before institutional investors decide to take the stock higher.
I think it is important to note the increase in volume during the month of May when the spring started. High volume during a spring suggests that big money is scooping shares for cheap. I believe that this is the perfect time for institutional investors to swoop in and use earnings as an excuse to push the stock higher.
What are your thoughts?
Wyckoff Accumulation Patterns - Copper LongRecognized accumulation pattern
A - decreasing volume on lows
B - decreasing volume on lows
The lows in pattern B did not break the lows from A. This indicates that the market is strong and well controlled by large operators. In the lows of pattern B, the last one on the lowest volume forms a very large, bullish engulfing candle.
C - the largest buying wave not only in the entire accumulation pattern but also the largest since the beginning of the decline - showing strength, breaking out of the range on very high volume.
The recent 4h candles on the chart are testing the breakout.
It seems that the pattern is set up for an upward move.
I'm providing two targets...
Indicators used: Wyckoff Wave Chart
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VolumeDayTrader
USDT.D 4HHi Guys Hope you well, and good weekend.
As I show You the chart , It maybe a Wyckoff pattern, be careful for long position ,completely against the trend of bitcoin.
SecondChanceCrypto
⏰07/May/23
⛔️(DYOR)
always do your research.
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BTC's Year Long AccumulationLooking at the BTC weekly chart it is clear that for the last year BTC has been in an accumulation zone and the recent markup in March represents a breakout to the upside of this channel/zone.
November's markdown, mostly fueled by negative crypto news in the wake of FTX's collapse, resulted in a failed breakout to the downside.
Note the bar range differences in the sideways market after the November failed breakout and after March's breakout.
Gold in its before-last phase of a 3 year accumulation.With the closure of the current sideways BU/LPS move to the upside, it would initiate the phase E of the accumulation with a break and mark up towards an ATH.
From that point on we would see how price maintains itself above the 3 year resistances and if in turn, rejection is too strong and we enter a long term distribution scenario.
I believe it to be highly unlikely however as the fundamentals driving gold bulls at the moment are very strong.
Rangebound Wyckoff Accumulation?Prices go oversold on Wednesday and overbought on Thursday. Welcome to the new normal. Good luck with it!
Looks like we may be entering Wyckoff accumulation phase. Price has been rangebound this year. Notice that we are at same price as May 23 2022.
Near the end of a bear market, prices will usually suffer a final capitulation. This might not occur for weeks or months yet.
VIX spikes >40, share prices drop to a new low and panic ensues. Then back up the callmobile and rent-a-stonk.
This is a very likely scenario, trade with caution. We are at the 50% retracement here, this is the most common bear retrace.
VIX <18 and Bolly bands contract, could be setup for another leg down. It always drops when you least expect it, so expect it.
GLTA
BTC Dominance breakoutI have been tracking this chart for a while and have posted it a couple of times in the past (Links below this post) . In the last update we saw a rejection from the 3D breakout line and BTC.D was testing the Buildup support, which was held and resulted in a move to the upside. Right now, BTC.D is again testing the 3D breakout level and following are the implication of BTC.D breaking out.
When the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) surges to the upside, it typically signifies that Bitcoin is outperforming the rest of the cryptocurrency market in terms of market capitalization. This increase in Bitcoin's dominance can have several implications for the broader crypto market:
Altcoin underperformance: As Bitcoin's dominance increases, altcoins may underperform relative to Bitcoin. Investors and traders tend to shift their capital from altcoins to Bitcoin in search of better returns, causing altcoin prices to stagnate or decline.
Market sentiment: A rising Bitcoin dominance can indicate that market participants are becoming more risk-averse, as they move their investments from riskier altcoins to the more established and widely accepted Bitcoin.
Reduced liquidity for altcoins: As more money flows into Bitcoin, the liquidity for altcoins may decrease, making it more challenging to trade altcoins and causing more significant price fluctuations.
Temporary trend: It's important to note that an increase in Bitcoin dominance can be temporary, as market dynamics constantly change. After a period of Bitcoin outperformance, the trend may reverse, and altcoins might start to regain market share as investors look for opportunities in undervalued assets.
Correlation: Although a rising Bitcoin dominance often implies altcoin underperformance, it's important to remember that the crypto market is highly correlated. If Bitcoin's price increases significantly, the positive sentiment can spill over to altcoins, leading to a delayed positive impact on the broader market.
It's essential to monitor both the Bitcoin dominance index and the overall market sentiment to make informed decisions about your cryptocurrency investments. Keep in mind that these trends can change quickly, and it's crucial to stay updated on market developments and adjust your investment strategy accordingly.
Almost looks like Wyckoff Accumulation SchematicJust a quick thought - the main difference here b/w a typical Wycoff accumulation schematic is that the chart above didn't have a selling climax first prior to its automatic rally. However, since then it has behaved as-if it is in Phase B.
I have a much simpler idea for SPX / SP500 that is linked in the related ideas below.
ETH/USDT in Wyckoff Accumulation ModelImagine the smell...
ETH seems to follow Wyckoff Accumulation Model all too close so far. Nobody knows what will happen, but seems like a good idea to keep this in mind
Selling Climax (SC) was reached in June 2022, quick Automatic Rally (AR) peaked mid-August 2022, Secondary Test (ST) at the end of November 2022.
ETH just took out the AR high and seems to print strong bearish candle.
Based on this model we would expect:
rest of the Q2 23 = SHORT and path to sub-1k ETH
H2 23 = bounce from the bottom, path back to the top of the range
Gold | Case StudyThe XAU/USD pair is consolidating near 2040.00, being under pressure from technical factors and waiting for the publication of US macroeconomic data. The day before, gold has shown a steady growth, reacting to the latest evidence of a decrease in inflationary pressures in the US. In March, the Producer Price Index decreased by 0.5% in monthly terms and slowed down from 4.9% to 2.7% in annual terms, which, coupled with the data on consumer inflation that came out the day before, could put significant pressure on the decision of the US Fed on next meeting in May. Investors are also discussing the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, which were published on Wednesday, April 12, and reflected the officials' concern about the state of regional banks. In addition, the regulator allows the emergence of a recession during 2023, if external economic conditions do not begin to noticeably improve.
The United States of America
March US retail sales and industrial production data were released today and were mixed. Thus, the volume of retail sales decreased more than experts expected – by 1.0% instead of 0.4%, which is the second decrease in a row and illustrates the pressure on the national economy. The volume of industrial production in March rose by 0.4%, exceeding the forecast of 0.2%. We also note the latest comments of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic. Today, he said that the beginning slowdown in consumer prices and the decline in producer price inflation prove the correctness of the decision of the US Fed. The official noted that another 25 basis points increase in the interest rate would be appropriate, after which the cycle of monetary tightening could be completed.
the bottom yet to come - wyckoff accumulation phaseelliott wave analysis of bitcoin on daily timeframe
the latest move/wave does not look like an impulsive move but rather a corrective move
as a result, the idea of bear continuation and new bottom occurrence probability shall not be ignored.
If it is the case, then we may assume that the market might be in a accumulation phase for extended period of time (as displayed in the chart) mainly sideways and probable new bottom to form before the bull run resumes
details of the analysis is presented on the chart and you are kindly invited to check the links below for further details of the characteristics of the elliott waves
please note that :
- these patterns do not provide any kind of certainty about future price movement, but rather, serve in helping to order the probabilities for future market action
- trade setups must be confirmed in conjunction with other forms of technical and fundamental analysis
- and please remember that this analysis is not a financial advice and presented for educational purpose only
Elliott Wave Theory : Motive Waves and Corrective Waves
Published Indicators : Indicators page