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Wyckoffdistribution

Bitcoin Wyckoff distributionA Five-Step Approach to the Market The Wyckoff Method involves a five-step approach to stock selection and trade entry, which can be summarized as follows: 1. Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market. Is the market consolidating or trending? Does your analysis of market structure, supply and demand indicate the direction that is likely in the near future? This assessment should help you decide whether to be in the market at all and, if so, whether to take long or short positions. Use both bar charts and Point and Figure charts of the major market indices for Step 1. 2. Select stocks in harmony with the trend. In an uptrend, select stocks that are stronger than the market. For instance, look for stocks that demonstrate greater percentage increases than the market during rallies and smaller decreases during reactions. In a downtrend, do the reverse – choose stocks that are weaker than the market. If you are not sure about a specific issue, drop it and move on to the next one. Use bar charts of individual stocks to compare with those of the most relevant market index for Step 2. 3. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective. A critical component of Wyckoff's trade selection and management was his unique method of identifying price targets using Point and Figure (P&F) projections for both long and short trades. In Wyckoff's fundamental law of “Cause and Effect,” the horizontal P&F count within a trading range represents the cause, while the subsequent price movement represents the effect. Therefore, if you are planning to take long positions, choose stocks that are under accumulation or re-accumulation and have built a sufficient cause to satisfy your objective. Step 3 relies on the use of Point and Figure charts of individual stocks. 4. Determine the stocks' readiness to move. Apply the nine tests for buying or for selling (described below). For instance, in a trading range after a prolonged rally, does the evidence from the nine selling tests suggest that significant supply is entering the market and that a short position may be warranted? Or in an apparent accumulation trading range, do the nine buying tests indicate that supply has been successfully absorbed, as evidenced further by a low-volume spring and an even lower-volume test of that spring? Use bar charts and Point and Figure charts of individual stocks for Step 4. 5. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index. Three-quarters or more of individual issues move in harmony with the general market, so you improve the odds of a successful trade by having the power of the overall market behind it. Specific Wyckoff principles help you anticipate potential market turns, including a change of character of price action (such as the largest down-bar on the highest volume after a long uptrend), as well as manifestations of Wyckoff's three laws (see below). Put your stop-loss in place and then trail it, as appropriate, until you close out the position. Use bar and Point and Figure charts for Step 5.
by cryptoTradingAnalytics
9
Russell 2K (IWM) showing Wyckoff Distribution?Richard Wyckoff theorized that one could understand the market and its movement through analysis of supply and demand, which can be ascertained from studying price action, volume, and time. According to Wyckoff, the market moves in cycles. First, there is a period of accumulation followed by a mark up period. Then there is a period of distribution followed by a mark down period. The cycle then repeats itself. Seeking to improve efficiency when trading, Wyckoff created the Wyckoff schematics which depict trading ranges of accumulation and distribution by smart money. In 2020, we saw a major market crash as COVID caused the world to shut down. Once the F.U.D. diminished, the Wyckoff accumulation cycle began and the Russell was quickly marked up in a matter of months. In 2021, the Russell has traded mostly sideways. Following Wyckoff's cycle, one could presume that this is the Wyckoff distribution pattern which can take up to a year to fulfill. The Wyckoff Distribution Pattern is split into phases. I have outlined each phase on the chart to provide clarity. The distribution is broken down as such: Phase A: The Preliminary Supply (PSY) is established. This is where big money begins to offload some of their accumulated position. It is bought up by retail traders and sent to new highs. Big money then offloads a larger portion of their position at the Buying Climax (BC). This causes a massive wave of selling as supply significantly outweighs demand. Panic selling ensues and stop losses are triggered. An Automatic Reaction (AR) occurs as the supply and demand balance out. The low of the AR and high of the BC establish a trading range for the rest of the distribution. Phase B: This phase consists of supply and demand testing. Buyers will attempt to reclaim the trend through upthrusts (UT) but big money meets this demand with more supply and sends shares back into the trading range. Big money will then perform secondary tests (ST) and look for signs of weakness (SOW) to assess the remaining supply and demand imbalances. This results in a long period of consolidation. Not that we should see low volume in the middle of the range and volume spikes toward the boundaries. Phase C (Optional): This phase is characterized as a false breakout. It is used to trick traders out of their positions so big money can offload more supply, sending shares lower in one final push. Upthrust after Distribution (UTAD) Phase D: This phase will often illustrate a clear imbalance between supply and demand. Price will show large volume and price declines toward the lower boundary of the trading range. At this point, big money has little to no long position left and has likely initiated a short position. The market will begin to make a down-trending structure of lower highs and lower lows. I believe we are currently at this phase of the cycle. Phase E: The mark down period begins. There are several possible catalysts to trigger phase E. The most obvious is the anticipation of rate hikes from the Fed. From here, we will begin to look for the start of the next accumulation period. **It is important to note that the Wyckoff Distribution Pattern is only a model and that the chart wont match it perfectly. As long as the fundamental concepts of the model hold true, the pattern should work. I will be looking for short signals and confirmations via market structure and volume. Let me know your thoughts on this unusually long explanation. Happy trading!
AMEX:IWMShort
by Decam9
3
Bear claws taking a big swipeBeen some rough days for the bulls lately. I've update my Wyckoff trading channel. Friday's trading was very steep and high volume that may, just may indicate a selling climax. It is possible we get another low but I count 5 waves over the last several days which could indicate the finish of a C wave in this correction for an expanded flat or zigzag. Pure Elliot Wave has some nice Elliot wave assessments from Lara that are really helpful in keeping track of these trading channels. I placed a downward trading channel for this down movement but likely too steep for any significant value. Volume has been increasing for the most part over this bearish pattern and with Friday's candle closing on the low on high volume, still indicates bearish sentiment. Had that candle been green or a bigger tail on high volume, would indicate a turn towards upward movement I would think. This is information only and by no means implies any suggestions for trades. Trade at your own risk. Good luck.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HedgehogLanding
SPY Wyckoff DistributionI wanted to get this analysis out last week. But anyway Spy has been looking like BTC was when it topped out in April/May. It has been playing out the Wycoff Distribution on the daily along with bearish divergence on multiple time frame charts. We appear to be in phase D or starting Phase E. Spy has a target of 430. Key entries would have been that last retest of 473 or last retest of 465. Right now bounces should be shorted until the downtrend reverses. 450 is the next good looking short opportunity. I was short options since 458 yesterday and sold this morning at 443. Looking to re enter soon. I want 450, but I may wait to see how the market digests everything over the weekend. Any trades rn should proceed with caution. Today was options expiration and we are very volatile right now. Patience Pays. Good luck out there everyone
AMEX:SPYShort
by anamaly
TOTAL CRYTOCAP: Wyckoff schematic #1 & #2Among most indexes across the globe I have spotted a variation of both wyckoff distribution schemes on the total cryptocap. As I said in my previous analysis; the markets have run hot and in no way market makers, early investors and whales would consider a scenario of WAGMI. Market makers in crypto have learned a tough lesson during 2018 when bear markets could run hot - even for them. Another 3 years of bots, algorithms and machine learning have made them the perfect liquidity (or better said: liquidation) hunters amongst any market in the globe. This is not only because of their "brilliance and analytics" but more so; because they have one of the few retail dominated markets. Every dip should either be bought or diamond handed and every pump even more so. In fact, it is the mentality of the counterpart that made market makers record profits during 2020 and 2021. The expectations nothing less than a record breaking year for more profit. The machine learning machines that act as intelligent liquidity miners at the fraction of the cost of a Bitcoin mining farm printed new results; the slow bleed. The slow bleed has ever showed to be the best returning strategy to contain the crypto enthousiast. Downtrends come with a few phases: Phase 1: flash corrections retracting "the floor" that upholds the price of a coin Phase 2: a quick absorption of liquidity through a cascade of liquidations and stops Phase 3: a fast vectorized return to a higher floor downplaying the actual floor by a huge wick Phase 5: the local uptrend creating new hope; "the bottom is in" Phase 6: the vectorized liquidity chop absorbing the liquidity up and down in the new zone Phase 7: the short squeeze; "WAGMI" Rinse and repeat. The downfall of the bull market itself are in fact the bulls themselves with overleveraged longs or calls, overplaying their hand without a hedge towards the opposite direction, the direction of the market maker. IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
15
Spring or continuation?I was a bit surprised at the upward movement but still maintained a correction sequence based on Elliot wave theory. I was counting that upward movement as a Wave 4 correction and came close to invalidation by overlapping Wave 1. Close but no cigar. I think we will finish up Wave 3 on overnight trading and into tomorrow's session with a nice correction and probably a short Wave 5 to finish up the "Spring" if the overall count is bullish. It's quite possible this is a start of a bigger correction that will last for quite a while.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HedgehogLanding
Gonna Bounce SoonBetter close ur shortz. Look at time and price patterns past two weeks. Down, down, Up; down, down....UP coming See SqMo get ready to turn see WT bending, RSI oversold, people say, gonna get more oversold! Maybe so, won't last much longer. Get ready for a big pop, a short-killer. When greedy put holders close out for loss the MMs can wind up their short futurz and BAM! Up she blows. (OFC you know when MM sells a put, they short the futures to cover it, right? When the put covers, they BUY the Futurz BACK... and up she goes) After the first lift on futurz covering, short sellers head for the exits and spark the next pop, and she goes, pop...pop...pop... you do not wanna be short here IMO. These pops are explosive and sudden, watch your puts melt in seconds! If you holding UVXY, watch it vaporize... Wyckoff UTAD possible, at least lift to the TL as shown, ~4680, then more distribution, eh. Probly gonna open lower and dig down a bit in AM. Watch for the pivot. 2-3 day rally incoming IMO
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DaddySawbucks
3
Wyckoff ConsolidationRiding the fence tonight providing a couple of options for price movement. This is looking like a really nice Wyckoff consolidation pattern but time will tell whether it is accumulation or distribution. The effort (ie volume) is in the red candles with increasing volume vs decreasing volume on consecutive green candles. Personally I think this is a massive accumulation range that will continue upward long term but for now will be sideways trading. Pricing is respecting channels so far so there are opportunities if you can handle any draw down. From an Elliot perspective, this is looking like an impulse wave and in the middle of Wave 3. Wave 1 was a big one so will see how this shakes out. Impulse waves are 5 wave patterns that can exist as Wave's 1 3 or 5 on impulse waves or Wave A and C on corrections. Personally I think we are in a Wave C correction going down.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HedgehogLanding
DKNG: another bounce candidate?DKNG : Some pros and cons to play a potential bounce. --Big Wyckoff distribution on weekly and daily. ++ Hammer candlestick on weekly (indicating bullish reversal if next candle confirms it, i.e.we get follow through) ++ Bullish RSI divergence on daily (that you can't see on my weekly chart) Since I like the set up I will look for an entry today, but only for a swing trade (maybe 1 or 2 weeks max ). My target is around 33-35 . Be careful below 27. Trade safe!
NASDAQ:DKNGLong
by Elpidaldo
19
TRADE WITH ME WYCKOFF RE-DISTRIBUTION AUDJPYWe've seen that AUDJPY, has been on a downtrend since the start of November, prior to that downtrend, AUDJPY, had a distribution phase forming at the top. Price has dropped ever since then and is now doing a correction, I believe we're in a re-distribution where after a prolong downtrend, the CO, has taken a pause to collect more orders before heading down. Now we're just at the start of phase, so many things can happen from here on out however, I can't help but notice since our PSY, volume has been dropping ever so slightly, indicating substantial buying from the correction has come to end. We've then had a buying climax where the CO has absorbed all buying orders and quickly shifted back down, causing a bull trap on later buyers. Since the CO has absorbed the buyers and trapped them, in addition to volume decreasing, buying pressure is no longer valid so sellers enter once more and tries to push the market down until they've got exhausted and created an AR. Now we have our trading range for AUDJPY and await our secondary test. From here we play the waiting game. Thanks for reading any comments or questions post them below IssaLJ,
Short
by BeaucoupPips
1
Bitcoin Wyckoff Distribution improved with FibonacciI started trading crypto and bitcoin back in July in 2021 when I started studying Wyckoff distribution patterns and found this 3 day wyckoff pattern. Bitcoin 1st Peaked when Robinhood & Coinbase IPOd back on March/April of 2021. Followed by a 2nd Peak when Bitcoin ETF IPOd back in October Bitcoin began to sell off hard after a Coinbase hack that put them offline for several hours/days in late October. This updated the original Wyckoff Distribution Pattern and decided to redo it using Fibonacci Time Zone, Retracements & Trend Based Extensions. What’s interesting about these patterns is they all coincide with each other and major events in financial and world events. Take the starting point of the Oct 03, 2020 is around the time Robinhood became popular. The PSY peak is right at insurrection on Jan 6th 2021 The bounce off PSY 0.382 retracement as Gamestop and Dogecoin took flight in main stream media. These events set the stage for the entire first Wykoff Phase A as we see BC reach the 1 extension and ST reach the 1.272 extension. These are upward trend retracement and extension. To Find SOW in phase B I will be looking to find downward trend retracements and extensions in a following update for the GME anniversary. If you follow any of my stock market macro, you will see BTC is closely correlated to major indexes which I plan on researching more closely in the coming weeks. As we approach a major selloff in indexes on Jan 19th OPEX. We find ourselves ending phase A on the eve of Gamestop's 1st anniversary. Trade Safe! As always, I’ll be back
Short
by SPYvsGME
13