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Wyckoffdistribution

BTC Possible Entry to Wyckoff Accumulation PatternAfter seeing some content describing the correlation between BTC's recent price activity and the Wyckoff Distribution pattern (many thanks to YouTuber "Uncomplicated"!) and seeing how perfectly they matched, I took the next logical step to project what it might look like if we transitioned directly into a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern. This Idea presents one possibility of what that might look like. I have drawn this Idea to be intentionally pessimistic, as I am "planning for the worst & hoping for the best". Based on this work, I am preparing for the possibility that I may need to HODL my BTC down to a price point of approximately $15k ... something I would have thought impossible a few months ago, but it doesn't seem so impossible anymore. The upside of that, obviously, would be to accumulate additional crypto during this cycle. NOTE: All price levels & timespans are guesstimated for projection purposes; if we actually do enter such a phase, it could be shallower & faster, or deeper & slower, depending on more variables than anyone can be aware of. ALSO NOTE: I HOPE I'M WRONG ON THIS! I am long-term bullish on crypto projects in general & BTC in specific. As a career technologist, I believe deeply in the purpose & mission of crypto assets, and what they can provide in our world. I am hoping for a best case scenario where the recent plunge to $29k is the absolute lowest bottom we ever see again for BTC ... but I wouldn't bet my life on it. For a description of Wyckoff theory, check out: school.stockcharts.com #NotFinacialAdvice
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by LASultan
2
Wyckoff - Rally Back to the IceBreaking of the "Ice" (the ice was support throughout the distribution) happened the other day with that sharp drop from 43k to 30k. According to the Wyckoff distribution, there is always a rally back to test that break. This is to confirm that the demand is still scarce. I speculate if the price does not break and hold above 42.5k on the daily then the markdown will continue and this time the target could possibly be around 21.5k. The Wyckoff distribution has been textbook so far since it began, so I do not see any reason to doubt this. Other bearish signs include falling out of a rising wedge recently and leaving a graveyard doji behind on the 4H (4am UTC). Be very careful now trading during this time. ***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by WITSIT
2
WYCKOFF'S DISTRIBUTION #1: Are Bears Strong Enough?Hello everyone! In this analysis, I present the Wyckoff's theory regarding the distribution phase, some other indicators reinforcing it and why I believe Bitcoin is losing power right now. It looks like Bitcoin is perfectly following every single step of it and any trader should be cautious about it. * If you are not familiar with Wyckoff's theory, you can take a look at this image and use it as a comparison: i.redd.it As shown in the chart above, so far, we've completed phases A, B and C with its respective events. The run to the ATH may have set the top for a while, indicated by the UTAD, being the last strong move of the trend. According to the theory, we should expect a down trend from now on, going thourgh phases D and E in the following days. The relevant levels to watch and a key factor are presented below, according to some other analyses: • Elliott wave : We could draw an Elliott wave starting at the Bitcoin's bottom @ ~3000 USD. In this case, we have potentially just completed wave 3 after a 1500% gain and the price would now start to correct in wave 4. This comes as a confluence with the distribution theory. Trying to find targets for this move, we could use the Fibonacci retracement. Elliott's theory says we should expect wave 4 to retrace no more than 38.2% of wave 3. So I believe the lowest level Bitcoin could go to during this correction/distribution would be around 22k and that's huge! It would mean a 65% correction . However, that level is not guaranteed, as the price could retrace much less than that, maybe to 33k, where we have another Fibo level or even any other support we may found during this down trend. Anyway, it will be a very nice opportunity to reaccumulate Bitcoin at lower prices, aiming for the following wave 5 in the future. If this is correct, some patience may be needed. According to Elliott's theory, wave 4 can take some time to be developed. I'm expecting it to be similar to wave 2, so we would have several weeks of down trend ahead. • Trading Psychology : If you are a crypto enthusiast, you may recognize everyone is still very bullish about Bitcoin and influencers are yelling BUY THE DIP at pretty much every single red candle we have on the daily chart. That's dangerous! Let's take a look at a common argument they have: the 50 day moving average. Overbullish people tend to say buying when the price touches this line is a good buy . Well, it is untill it turns to a good bye ! Take a look at the current situation below. The 50MA is represented by the green line. We are at this level once again and many people are buying. However, take a look now at 2017's top. A similar situation happened and I'm sure many people have bought and got rekt right there! "Be cautious and fearfull when others are greed." Remember very few people have sold the top in 2017, most of them were expecting higher highs. The top must come someday, and it's usually when no one is expecting... >Now, the bullrun may not be over yet. We might see a double top's run similar to 2013. Also, thats what the Elliot wave shown above tells us. The current correction should correspond to wave 4. There's still a great run for wave 5 in the future. >> Many other bearish indicators show us we should expect the market to move downwards in the short term. I'll avoid extending this analysis for too long, so there is a link below to one of my previous ideas which I present several bearish indicators in confluence with the current scenario, such as the multiple divergences, Pi Cycle's top and chart patterns. Make sure to check it out! ** This analysis would be invalidated if we end up crossing the ATH once again. It is still a very good risk/reward situation we have here. At this point, it would be very ignorant not to consider all of this. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section below. Safe tradings, everyone!
BNC:BLXShort
by B4Baggio
6
BTC WYCKOFF DISCTRIBUTION ANALYSISPSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching. BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price. AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR. SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant. LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest. UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Credits: school.stockcharts.com THIS IS MY OWN IDEA ONLY. This is not a financial advise. Educational Purpose Only
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn18172817
5
BTC - Dip to $40,000? The distributional elements of BTC are evident * Classic 3 wave push followed by significant weakness. * Poor rally into LPSY with no continuation; unable to break previous resistance * Current price action is showing a serious lack of any demand. Look at the first box compared to where we are now - no upwards push. * Volume spikes throughout range with increased volatility. A test to $52000 is possible but I think we are going to around $40000 and possibly lower. Personally I started scaling out of my alt and BTC positions around $57000 and the inability of price to move upwards(LPSY). This was a real change than anything previously. Will be interesting this coming weeks. Personally looking at Gold and SIlver at the moment for longs. For anyone interested here is my Weekly Silver Chart with targets and ID of long term accumulation Also, my gold chart and healthy break plus BUA
Short
by DecpBTC
GBPUSD - Looking At Wyckoff - longsDistribution: Wyckoff Phases - without UTAD. Phase A to D completed perfectly. We now have Phase E. After the significant down-move, climactic action may signal the beginning of a re-distribution TR or of accumulation. (Which is basically the completion of the Wyckoff Phase) Now we have the break of the structure. We are likely to see a re-test between 0.236 - 0. (This will be the break and retest off SOW.) After the retest I will aim to get buys on the pullback, targeting the .5 - .618 (golden zone) if price respects that level. - Indicators leading me to take positions will be MA / SMA crossovers, bullish divergence and price action forming higher lows - higher highs. Risk is 1.5% - SL B/E when TP1 hits. TP 1 / 0 / 30% TP 2 / -.25 / 40% TP 3 / -.618 / 30% if price is impulsive I may intentionally hold past TP3 as demand will be in full control and the markup will be obvious to everyone News may impact the technical out look of the setup, hence why I will be waiting for sniper entries rather than rushing the play. USD is gaining strength with news fundamentals however I still feel GBP is stronger and the completion of the setup is likely.
Long
by KKirito
Update on EURUSD Opportunity for SellsPosting an update to my analysis from the beginning of the week. Since my previous update, we saw a clear sign of weakness. Then the price created another creek and after this final distribution, created one more thrust before consolidating then starting the descent down. I entered at the imbalance as I wasn't expecting another UT before pushing down. The entry wasn't so great and I needed to maintain a large SL to hold this trade but fortunately, it ended up going in my direction. As of right now, the price has broken the structure with an hourly close. The 4h will be closing in 45 minutes and if it can close below the previous structure, the probability to continue further down increases. For this trade, I am targeting 1.201 but expecting the price to go all the way down anywhere between 1.18 to 1.195 before starting the next wave up. I am here to learn so please don't hesitate to provide comments or suggestions on my analysis. It would be greatly appreciated. Trade Safe! HEET Previous Analysis: Zoom out on HTF:
Short
by AfterlifeTrading
4
Potential EURUSD opportunity for sellsWhen I was looking at the structure of EU, I was thinking that we were going to see continuation. I am actually still in a long trade as we speak. But EUR is quite weak and we have yet to see any sign of continuation nor break of structure. The more I look at the structure, It appears to be distributing more than accumulating. As such, I have changed my bias. I've redrawn my chart to show a distribution schematic. I am currently waiting for a UTAD and assuming it rejects above the highs, I will look to enter a short. As it is still unclear which way this is going, if anywhere, so if this plays out, I may not enter at the top and wait for more confirmation then try to enter at a supply zone instead. Anyway, I am still quite new to Wyckoff so if anyone has any comments on my chart, please do not hesitate to provide any feedback or comments. It would be greatly appreciated. Trade Safe! HEET ps. Just before posting, I had a quick look at DXY and it looks like DXY may be in a spring right now. But I don't see any rebound, so maybe this is all wrong?
Short
by AfterlifeTrading
Wyckoff Distribution vs AccumulationExperimenting with Wyckoff schematics. Wyckoff's distribution schematic #1 (see link) creates an ascending triangle or rising wedge shape, before a final Up Thrust After Distribution (UTAD). Chart References and Acronyms: PSY —preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching. BC —buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price. AR —automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR. ST —secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR. SOW —sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant. LPSY —last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest. UTAD —upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by DestinyJV
2
EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Support At 1.1990EUR/USD settled below the 20 EMA and is trying to settle below the support at 1.1990. Fundamental Reason:- Euro Is Under Pressure EUR/USD is currently testing the support at 1.1990 while the U.S. dollar is gaining ground against a broad basket of currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index has recently managed to get above the 20 EMA at 91.35 and is moving towards the 50 EMA at 91.50. In case the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 50 EMA, EUR/USD will find itself under more pressure. Today, foreign exchange market traders will have a chance to take a look at the final readings of Services PMI reports from EU and U.S. Euro Area Services PMI is projected to increase from 49.6 in March to 50.3 in April. Numbers above 50 show expansion, so Euro Area services segment is expected to return to growth. In the U.S., Services PMI is projected to grow from 60.4 to 63.1. U.S. ADP Employment Change report may also have an impact on the dynamics of the U.S. dollar. Analysts expect that the report will indicate that U.S. businesses hired 800,000 workers in April. Technical Analysis EUR/USD managed to settle below the support at the 20 EMA at 1.2020 and is testing the next support level which is located near the 50 EMA at 1.1990. RSI remains in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge. If EUR/USD settles below the 50 EMA, it will head towards the next support level which is located at 1.1965. A successful test of the support at 1.1965 will push EUR/USD towards the next support at 1.1925. In case EUR/USD declines below this level, it will move towards the support at 1.1900. On the upside, the previous support at the 20 EMA at 1.2020 will serve as the first resistance level for EUR/USD. If EUR/USD settles above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.2040. A move above the resistance at 1.2040 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level which is located at 1.2060.
Short
by GREENBACK_OFFICIAL
SPX500: Will price finally DROP harder?Hey tradomaniacs, It is getting a little bit tricky now for the stockmarket with the so called "stagflation" showing higher prices for assets and consumer goods (inflation) while the economy stagnates. 👉 An example is the yesterdays weak U.S ISM Index while prices generally rise (Wood,Wheat,Coffee,Gas etc.)❗️ So the question is: How can the central banks continue with an ongoing inflation in order to support the economy to stop the stagnation? Is more stimulus possible even though prices seem to explode? Or is the bubble ready to pop soon and we see a correction and a strong US-Dollar? The mood is overall upbeat in terms of corona as the investment rate in the USA is really high indicated by a margin-debts but the U.S.-Stockmarket is overall not really moving upwards anymore, which could be a typical "buy the rumor sell the fact" scenario. Also keep in mind that many private-investors are currently invested providing a great opportunity for biggies to take profits / distribute volume. Is the best of all possible worlds price in? However, I will be very cautious right now and watch the market carefully and focus in short-term-opportunities. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Trading2ez
1