BTC making HISTORY AGAIN - WyckoffEveryone knows that Bitcoin is getting hotter this year, but let's keep this analysis short as the most important information is on the chart.
This analysis is based on Wyckoff ideas, we could be in front of a Distribution phase, as BTC has been in an upward trend for so long without any noted distribution (people, or I should say financial entities, taking their money off and selling their positions).
We first saw a STOP followed by a fast down trend ( AR ) that ended leaving us with two important support lines who were supported during the whole phase excepting an small spring with irrelevant volume ( this shows that great plays are not taking place ), then prices went up to the secondary support line, to finally rise with SMA in their favor.
In that moment we could see prices breaking the STOP resistance with no volume at all, which is a clear indicator that demand is not interested to push prices up again, but the thing is that supply is not getting in play for the moment and that is the reason why prices did not went all the way down.
But we could see that Upthrust as a moment when people sold all of their positions, but again we did not saw the volume that should be related.
Now prices are trying again to rise, but there is one thing clear, prices will not go further without any volume supporting the movement.
Hope you have a great day.
Wyckoffdistribution
CRYPTO - RIOT - The Wyckoff MethodWyckoff Method Application:
Hello everyone, DPT here. I love analysis, and I love to learn about and trade using theories and frameworks Dow Theory, Elliot Wave Theory, Action Reaction, and others, as I develop my own methodology... Today, I spotted a very good fit for the Wyckoff Method for a trade setup, and I wanted to share this with you. There are a few steps omitted, but I included the article which I used as reference so you can follow along, or use it as a template for your own trades. This is not financial advice, just an informational!
5 Step Approach to the Market:
1. Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market.
- Currently swinging bearish:
2. Select stocks in harmony with the trend.
- RIOT is known to follow BTCUSD, as it is a BTC miner!
3. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective.
- I have high conviction that BTC is (a) on a downtrend with more downside, (b) RIOT has yet to price this in.
4. Determine the stocks' readiness to move.
- TA Oscillators and Moving Averages show that the stock is ready for a move to the downside.
5. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index.
- I have high conviction that the stock market index will also see downside in the nearest future:
Three Wyckoff Laws:
1. The law of supply and demand determines the price direction.
2. The law of cause and effect. (BTC and stock market downtrend, yet to fully be realized by RIOT).
3. The law of effort.
Analyses of Trading Ranges:
- Trading ranges (TRs) are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand. Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR.
Wyckoff Schematics:
- A successful Wyckoff analyst must be able to anticipate and correctly judge the direction and magnitude of the move out of a TR. Fortunately, Wyckoff offers time-tested guidelines for identifying and delineating the phases and events within a TR, which, in turn, provide the basis for estimating price targets in the subsequent trend.
Nine Buying/Selling Tests:
FYI - I won't be using a P&F chart.
1. Upside objective accomplished. ✔️
2. Activity bearish (volume decreases on rallies and increases on reactions). ✔️
3. Preliminary supply, buying climax. ✔️
4. Stock weaker than the market (that is, more responsive than the market on reactions and sluggish on rallies). Stock did not make new high, when BTC made a new ATH! ✔️
5. Upward stride broken (that is, support line or uptrend line penetrated). Currently in the beginning of a descending scallop (scythe) pattern, clearly breaking uptrend line. ✔️
6. Lower highs. ✔️
7. Lower lows. ✔️
8. Crown forming (lateral movement). ✔️
9. Estimated downside profit potential is at least three times the risk for if the initial stop-order were hit. ✔️
STRATEGY:
- Entry: 63
- SL: 87
- TP1: 47
- TP2: 38
- PT: 23
- RRR: 1.71
- Timeframe: 45d
- TRIGGER:
1. Confirmed rejection at this resistance.
2. BTC continued downtrend.
3. Increasing sell pressure.
“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
As always, if you enjoy this post, please Like, Follow, Leave a message... GLHF!
- DPT
Trade like smart money with Wyckoff theory (Distribution)Here is an example of Distribution in Wyckoff Schematics.
Here as you can see you could easily trade with the smart money and take huge profits if you just understood how smart money move the market in order to get where they want.
It works on all timeframes in reverses areas, where you believe, based on your analysis that the market is likely to reverse.
SAVE > BuySAVE > Buy
> On this price break Phase C LPS Wyckoff accumulation.
> Stocks change the slope of the price frame. Run up top!
> Buy follows a trend on this price.
> Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.07
Potential distribution formingThe blue area is a possible resistance from the weekly timeframe. I am waiting for a possible double top where a second top must be above pinbar's high and must be ferociously rejected. In that case, I might sell or wait for a retest of the rejection candle. If I am correct about this, the target will be some area of liquidity downside from here.
MINT-W6 > BuyMINT-W6 > Buy
> On this price break Phase C LPS Wyckoff accumulation.
> Buy Follows for Break Out!
> Risk/Reward Ratio: XXX
Goofed by what I thought was distributionSo.. PLANS CHANGED!
Took some time to see on the sidelines how price would decide to play. Seems like we've been trending bullish with strong inst. order flow, so as of right now and the way the higher TFs are looking -Daily shows great strength, as well as a BOS; this could be the impulse to begin our bullish move, after many days of bearishness (for the retracement)-.
Now, I'm seeing re-accumulation.
Price begins to trickle its way bullish after a retracement on both 4HR and D (Jan 14-17th), which to me, seems like the standard push-up-pullback bullish scenario you'd see in clean price action.
GBPUSD RE-ACCUMULATION ON 4HR
GBPUSD BULLISH BOS ON DAILY
With DXY showing signs of bearishness on higher TFs, as well as taking into account future events like stimulus cheques being handed out; value on the DXY is sure to nudge lower with all that money being printed -just my hunch, lol-.