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Wyckoffdistribution

Bitcoin Enters a Phase B Wyckoff Distribution on 4H IntradayHappy Friday. It seems the season of Bitcoin may be changing, which of course seems counter-intuitive considering the current news cycle. While the market seems to be preparing for the next legs down, on the fundamental side, it seems Bitcoin is finally getting its due. Recently the acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks solicited input from the public on cryptocurrency use in the financial sector. On the surface this seems like click-bait, but when we dig deeper, one item of interest is Brian Brooks is the former Chief Legal Officer (CLO) of Coinbase. US Bank Regulator OCC Asks for Public Input on Cryptocurrency Use in Financial Sector Be sure to check out the Advanced Notice of Proposed Rule Making linked in the article and provide some feedback. With that, let’s get into the Technical Analysis. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation realized the target price of $9,860 suggested in yesterday’s market analysis, which signaled Preliminary Supply (PSY). Shortly after, it pushed one box higher to $9,880 in a Buying Climax (BC), which signaled the beginning of a potential Phase A Wyckoff Distribution underway on the 4H chart. The Automatic Reaction (AR) pulled back to $9,720, and formed the preliminary trade range between $9,880 and $9,720 to conclude Phase A. As the formation moved into Phase B, it printed a lower Secondary Test (ST) at $9,840 - just underneath the upper end of the trade range, then turned lower and pushed through the initial support established at $9,740 from the Automatic Reaction (AR) to the $9,660 price level on a Sign of Weakness (SOW). We need to peek at the 15M Intraday chart to get an idea of what’s happening here… Looking at the 15M chart, we see the formation established support for the Sign of Weakness (SOW) at the $9,660 price point, then performed a Secondary Test (ST) of the support at $9,660 before printing a Shakeout Spring to the $9,600 level. Two key takeaways from analyzing this PA (i) the move to the downside occurred almost immediately after breaking the support trend line established at the $9,460 low which formed after signaling a Sign of Strength (SOS) and subsequent rise to the Buying Climax (BC) at $9,860, and (ii) support at $9,660 has been tested and confirmed four times as of the time of this writing. The formation continues to establish support at this level, with price currently confined in the $9,720 - $9,660 trade range. This PA appears to confirm a normal Phase B Wyckoff Distribution is currently underway on the Intraday time frame. Recall from yesterday’s analysis of the 1D Chart, during Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution, large interests are net sellers of Bitcoin and have the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. Given this appears to be a normal Wyckoff Distribution, my expectation would be gradual rise back to the $9,880 upper resistance level, with a potential Upward Thrust (UT) to a price point somewhere around the $10,000 – mid $9,000’s, before turning back down and moving into Phase C of a Wyckoff Distribution. Currently the formation on the 4H Intraday has $300 of cause built in from the consolidation, which suggests a price target of $9,420, should the high immediately after the Sign of Weakness (SOW) at $9,720 behave as the Last Point of Supply (LPSY). As the consolidation continues, more cause will be built into the formation, requiring a target price re-calibration. Currently the formation on the 1D is printing a red candle, pushing the PA lower. My expectation is the 1D formation should begin to print lower highs over the near term before moving onto Phase C of the Wyckoff Distribution. Congruently, shorter intraday time frames such as the 4H and 15M charts are both signaling a Phase B Wyckoff Accumulation is underway as well. Were I to hazard a guess, it would appear that $9,200 may be in the cards in the foreseeable future before re-establishing support for the next leg down. I would imagine the $9,900 - $10,000 region will be the eventual target of an Upward Thrust (UT) on the 4H Intraday before dropping back down to form another lower high and so on over the near term until Phase C begins on the 1D chart. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOFAgent1
6
Bitcoin Consolidation in the $9,620 - $9,120 of a Wyckoff DistHappy Monday everyone. This morning on CNBC I came across an interesting article about the current global dollar shortage and the moves the FED is taking to provide access to dollars during this massive (and temporary) surge in demand. It’s fascinatingly counter-intuitive in light of the recent waves of money printing from the FED and the US Treasury. A Global Rush Into the US Dollar is Driving Extreme Market Moves and a Temporary Shortage Recently there has been a bunch of activity with Tether and other Stablecoins, suggesting a broader move into the cryptocurrency space, and potential pent up demand for Bitcoin. I speculated at one point, some of this might be attributed to investors and businesses moving their cash into Stablecoins to hedge against the ramifications of negative interest rates, bank liquidity issues and fees. Shortly after Jeremy Allaire of Circle had some similar thoughts on the subject based upon what they were seeing as well. Circle CEO Claims ‘Explosive’ Stablecoin Demand From Everyday Businesses It would be interesting to see if Stablecoins become a stopgap for the temporary USD shortage in the coming weeks. Interesting times. With that, let’s get into the Technical Analysis. Looking at the 4H Intraday Chart, the formation remains range-bound towards the upper end of the trade range (between $9,620 and $9,280) in a regular consolidation pattern for a Wyckoff Distribution Phase. The upper trend-line formed from the Upward Thrust (UT) on the Secondary Test (ST) remains unbroken, and no Change of Character (CHoCH) has been signaled at the time of this writing (which would suggest a move to re-accumulate from this normal distribution phase). The formation appears to be in Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution currently. My expectation for the near future is the formation will continue to remain range-bound within the upper limits of the trade range (between $9,620 and $9,280) and potentially have another Upward Thrust (UT) before turning lower to retest the lower limits of the trade range (between $9,280 and $9,120) before printing a Sign of Weakness (SOW). Currently there is approximately $1,020 of cause built into the formation during this consolidation period, which would suggest a current price target of $8,580. As the consolidation continues, more cause will be built into the formation, requiring a target price re-calibration. The Volume Oscillator is again showing a bearish divergence from the formation and is printing a negative number (-39.32%), suggesting a strong shift in the current trend is on the horizon. For reference, right before the previous drop from $9,300 to $8,640, the Volume Oscillator signaled a bearish divergence and printed a negative number of similar magnitude (-45.78%). Looking at the 1D chart, the PA is compressing towards the upper end of the trade range yet remains pinned beneath the upper trend line formed from the $10,060 high. My expectation the formation will print a lower high over the next few days remains unchanged. My feeling is we will visit the lower end of the 1D trade range ($8,120), retest the lower end, and potentially establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) down towards $7,700 before reversing and moving higher again. Always remember this is not trading advice. Outside of that, Happy Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FOFAgent1
1
Bitcoin: Bearish Distribution Wyckoffian Analysis 1H (May 16)X Force Global Analysis: In this analysis, we explore Bitcoin's bearish scenario based on the Wyckoffian logic. Analysis - On the right hand side, we have a simple diagram of the market phases developed by Wyckoff. - It's important to remember Wyckoff's emphasis on supply and demand, cause and effect, and effort. - In the accumulation phase, there is a high supply with low demand. - The effect of high supply and low demand is rock bottom prices - The Mark Up phase occurs when the supply of an asset has been diminished - The demand then picks up when retail investors start taking notice of the upside of the underlying asset. - In the Distribution phase, demand stays the same, while supply increases - During the Mark Down phase, supply is at an all time high - Basd on the wyckoffian logic, we are currently at a distribution phase, looking for a Mark Down. - It's also important to note that we have been rejected constantly by the mid resistance of the bollinger band Market Sentiment: Long short ratios are at 73 to 27, with exceptional amounts of long and dominant bullish sentiment in the market. What We Believe As mentioned previously, a break and close above 10K was imperative for a bullish rally. However, it seems as though Bitcoin is having a hard time with rejection around 9.5k levels too. Interpreting this as a distribution phase, while a test of the 10K levels could definitely be possible, the bearish probabilities are still high, and the corrective scenario remains valid. Trade Safe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by XForceGlobal
12
BTC is playing chess game with usHi there. I guess the puzzle now can NOT be solved easily just by simple S/R lines. It's close to halving,even convenience store's lady knows some coin is about to halving :) So is it bull up right on time? is it the smart money want? I accidentally saw Wyckoff’s Accumulation Schematics from @monetae_anon 's chart. It's good knowledge to learn and thanks monetae_anon for sharing. So i try to draw something here and still not guarantee it's working,but just look at it. During halving we have exact bull momentum above global red resistance plus it stays inside 2 uptrends that can give people illusion that BTC breaks the global downtrend and sell everything bull up BTC. One thing i learned is that smart money never trade by news. So i guess during halving, it will hold till all people start to loss patient then launch this rocket. Please comment and share. Thank you for your time. Alex Wang
by alex13652117992
BITCOIN 😷 Wyckoff Distribution 👇👇👇🤷 Volume was increasing, while Price was decreasing. This shows that Effort was greater than the Result. In other words, increasing Demand did not increase Price, therefore a further drop may follow as Supply is still overwhelming buyers. 💔 Sign of Weakness "in progress" with price trying to regain $8,600-ish (Bottom of Trading Range). ⚠️ This is not confirmed yet! Needs strong Bear Volume spike and price to drop below $8,500. 🚨 I am NOT shorting this, for information purposes only. I'm looking to accumulate Bitcoin when it finds a bottom. (Stop Loss would be above Last Point of Supply... $9,000-ish)
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ChartCinema
The Fundamentals of Wyckoff Theory Richard DeMille Wyckoff was a famous stock trader and investor, born in the late 19th century (1873–1934). Wykoff was a pioneer in the technical approach to stock market research. Wyckoff’s analyzed these market operators and their operations and concluded where risk and reward were optimal for trading. He shows the position of stop-losses at all times, the importance of managing the risk of any trade, and he explained techniques used to campaign within the large trend ( bullish and bearish ).Wyckoff also founded Wall Street Magazine. A five-step approach to the market. Wyckoff also developed specific Buying and Selling Tests, as well as a unique charting method based on Point and Figure (P&F) charts. While the tests help traders spot better entries, the P&F method is used to define trading targets. However, this article won’t dive into these two topics. Accumulation The Composite Man accumulates assets before most investors. This phase is usually marked by a sideways movement. The accumulation is done gradually to avoid the price from changing significantly. Uptrend When the Composite Man is holding enough shares, and the selling force is depleted, he starts pushing the market up. Naturally, the emerging trend attracts more investors, causing demand to increase. Notably, there may be multiple phases of accumulation during an uptrend. We may call them re-accumulation phases, where the bigger trend stops and consolidates for a while, before continuing its upward movement. As the market moves up, other investors are encouraged to buy. Eventually, even the general public become excited enough to get involved. At this point, demand is excessively higher than supply. Distribution Next, the Composite Man starts distributing his holdings. He sells his profitable positions to those entering the market at a late stage. Typically, the distribution phase is marked by a sideways movement that absorbs demand until it gets exhausted. Downtrend Soon after the distribution phase, the market starts reverting to the downside. In other words, after the Composite Man is done selling a good amount of his shares, he starts pushing the market down. Eventually, the supply becomes much greater than demand, and the downtrend is established. Similar to the uptrend, the downtrend may also have re-distribution phases. These are basically short-term consolidation between big price drops. They may also include Dead Cat Bounces or the so-called bull traps, where some buyers get trapped, hoping for a trend reversal that doesn’t happen. When the bearish trend is finally over, a new accumulation phase begins.
by TayFx
5
Bitcoin is still in a distribution phase, sorry bulls.Hi guys, so my previous idea that we had a falling wedge with higher probability that we would make a push back upwards towards 7.8k range worked out pretty well I was short term bullish, and I was watching and waiting for that tick upwards.. but I think the end is very near and we are heading towards a big crash down in the very near future, maybe in the following weeks, most probably before the halving happens.. looking at everything, I am seeing a Wyckoff distribution pattern that is currently being followed, and this spike upwards was nothing more than our UTAD test we will probably be ranging a bit within these areas for a few days maybe.. but I think a big drop and crash down out of our rising wedge is likely to be happening if we do close our monthly candle above the EMA21 I will be very bullish for bitcoin.. so that monthly candle close will tell us all, and that's only 6 days away :) so for now, my bearish bias still remains, if you want to hear more reasons why? then you can still watch me live on Facebook or Youtube, just google " The Dang Oracle " have been streaming live daily 7.30PM (UTC+8) see you on the next one. #stayhome #staysafe #staycovidfree -Ryu
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ThereAreNoWalls
4