Wyckoffreaccumulation
Ethereum Classic Wyckoff RE-AccumulationMost are familiar with accumulation/distribution schematics but, most are not familiar with reaccumulation schematics which you find in STRONG markets & have many similarities to distribution. There are a few ways this can go moving forward. The main thing to look for is the creek forming and the volume when the price action comes down to the lower of the range again. Being that ETC has alot of miners jumping back over to mine ETC since the ETH merge is right around the corner ETC has some strong price action coming in.
Here are the definitions for the for the accronyms on this RE-Accumulation schematic for a better understanding of each move.
PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests.
AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR.
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC.
PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching.
BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price.
AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR.
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR.
SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant.
LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.
WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION - PHASE ATechnically this is the structure I'm looking for, confirmation should come with the secondary test (ST).
But, my feelings tell me we haven't hit bottom yet. I speculate that the loss of the 20k support will make this accumulation happen with the Selling Climax (SC) hitting the 13k support, eventually with a BearTrap touching 6k.
Bitcoin: Wyckoff within WyckoffAre we really doing this again? There's good news and bad news but also potentially even better news!
I charted the recent down pattern of bitcoin to Wyckoff and have once again found a matching pattern to the Accumulation Cycle. You can see these accumulation phases in blue.
I then noticed that the larger pattern could be a Wyckoff Distribution Cycle and have charted that in orange.
But there is also another Wyckoff pattern called the Reaccumulation Cycle and it too looks like it could be a Reaccumulation pattern. These arrows are green.
What to look out for
I believe the "spring" is about to happen for the short-term Accumulation Cycle, this could bring the price near 30k. If it doesn't bounce hard if 30k is hit and just lags around there, I would be worried that it is a shorter Distribution Cycle and will follow the red line.
Next most important area is the UTAD. This could be the long-term top of bitcoin but it is NOT a requirement in the distribution cycle so no guarantee that it will happen. It also may not be a distribution cycle but instead a Reaccumulation Cycle, which could lead to a breakout.
If the UTAD acts as resistance, we could see a "creek" and "spring" phase in the Reaccumulation cycle. This looks like a distinct pattern to me where the price starts to stabilize and curve. There is also an optional "spring" that stops out the bulls one last time for the big run. This is a dangerous area though, because if the cycle is a distribution one, the price will follow that orange line.
So in my opinion there is still not enough data to tell exactly where bitcoin where go from here, but it is nice to understand the likely pathways using Wyckoff, which has been reliable in the past.
A good Wyckoff article can be found here if you want to read more: phemex.com
Luna structuresJust an overview of my current theories. We'll see where to next. If the structure stays true to form who knows.
Are we being fooled? Silver too WTF!After finding Wyckoff reaccumulation zones on Ethereum AND Bitcoin. Now I see it on silver too. Please leave me your thoughts and feedback.
Bitcoin Reaccumulation still in playI saw sort of a similar idea on twitter a couple weeks ago and i found it very interesting so i started looking at it myself.
Even though there is alot of different wyckoff schematics, i picked out just a single one who looks alot like the bitcoin chart.
(notice the creek being formed right now)
In a re-accumulation it's important to look at the volume and the volatility of the market. At around 65k we had lots of volatility and volume (check volume indicator on the bottom of the chart). But when we came down towards ressitance and further formed the schematic, volatility and volume started to diminsh. We had one push up where we made a higher high and touched resistance ($69k), where hardly any volume showed.
To confirm this schematic we will need to wait for a jump across the creek to form (with significant volume and volatility shown) & create significant higher highs then $65k & $69k.
BULL ANALYSIS (Wyckoff Reaccumulation) - COPPER (HG1!) - 1DWHAT WE HAVE
Daily Wyckoff Reaccumulation pattern
Monthly / weekly linear up trend
Bull monthly channel (waiting for contact with resistance)
WHAT I THINK
One of the best view we can see here for a reaccumulation and continuation setup. This isn't a signal for entry on market for the moment but here we have the context.
Should we expect a spring ? No, I don't think so, volumes decrease during all the reaccumulation, furthermore creek have been already jumped. So I will more expect a retest of the creek support. With a signal in it, it should be a nice entry spot, but if you prefer wait for a spring and doesn't happen, don't jump in market desperately. You will have to wait signal on the last point of support after SOS like I will do if we don't have signal around the creek support. It's always frustrating to buy the top of the range but it's always better to enter in a strategy pattern than on emotional reaction.
What should we target if plans happens ? First target should be the top of the monthly channel with profit taking. Before that always secure your losses to breakeven. If you enter around creek support or on a spring, it's important to be breakeven at the moment you see the SOS appears (it's not fool to take profit on it too). Market can always reject the price and go down again to the support or even worse go for a more deep consolidation. After that, if we reach the top of the channel : if you see short signals on it, close your position ; if we break it, just let run your profits to higher targets.
Macro economically we have a good setup to see the materials sector growth, we are in an up trend on every higher timeframe, we have continuation pattern, stars are aligned to see nice move in this way.
Like I say frequently : "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" . Here we have probabilities and strategy so don't let your emotions guide you and follow your plans.
PS : Apologize for my english, I do my best. I wish you all success you need for 2022, on every side !
GBPUSD possible UP move 15m+The price movement created a trendline at the retracements of the price to the downside. There's a slight liquidity zone just below it, so we are watching this area.
If 1.345 is taken out, then we're entering the liquidity zone below and will be looking for trades there.
In the meantime, keep calm and safe trading.
AMC -- Creek Finding Tool -- BETAThis week, I've been experimenting with a method of anticipating creek cross moments across a number of securities. Of course, my intention is to create a reliable indicator to overlay on Wyckoff accumulations in order to understand where the high pressure domes of selling, which pin price down, exist and to recognize as early as possible when one of those zones has been crossed.
In Wyckoff, the creek has long been thought of as a meandering band which winds arbitrarily through the trading range, pinning the price below it. And, a strong cross above that line, usually with a long green candle is a sign that buying has overwhelmed selling pressure and a markup phase has begun. But, what if, in the age of algorithmic trading, there is a predictable rhythm to the formation of the creek?
WIth this tool, I'm using Sine Waves pinned to volume spikes (to determine wave length) and Fib Retracement (to determine amplitude.)
The three creeks being tracked here are:
Creek 1: Yellow --
Creek 2: Red -- This resistance band is tied to the regional low (measured from the terminal shakeout spring from the previous trading range) & current high (marked UT). It has been pinning price lower and lower in the trading range and carried us toward the ultimate spring (which I mistimed with the path I drew yesterday.)
Creek 3: Green --
As always, this chart is open source. Please feel free to click "share" then "make it mine" in order to play with it for yourself.
AMC -- Creek Finder -- BETAThis week, I've been experimenting with a method of anticipating creek cross moments across a number of securities. Of course, my intention is to create a reliable indicator to overlay on Wyckoff accumulations in order to understand where the high pressure domes of selling, which pin price down, exist and to recognize as early as possible when one of those zones has been crossed.
In Wyckoff, the creek has long been thought of as a meandering band which winds arbitrarily through the trading range, pinning the price below it. And, a strong cross above that line, usually with a long green candle is a sign that buying has overwhelmed selling pressure and a markup phase has begun. But, what if, in the age of algorithmic trading, there is a predictable rhythm to the formation of the creek?
WIth this tool, I'm using Sine Waves pinned to volume spikes (to determine wave length) and Fib Retracement (to determine amplitude.)
The three creeks being tracked here are:
Creek 1: Green -- This is the earliest creek established by a reverse fib extension drawn from the buying climax down to the selling climax. As you can see, once across this creek, the price ran to UT. Also note how it acts as a reversal indicator. If above this wave with diminishing volume, you can expect a reversal. I see this creek as a key area to cross early the week of Dec. 27th.
Creek 2: Red -- This resistance band is tied to the regional low (measured from the terminal shakeout spring from the previous trading range) & current high (marked UT). It has been pinning price lower and lower in the trading range and carried us toward the ultimate spring (which I mistimed with the path I drew yesterday.)
Creek 3: Yellow -- For this creek, I'm speculating that the move from the lower trading range may repeat. In that lower trading range, a fib pulled from the deepest spring to the apex of reaction out of it defined the lower yellow band. Once across, a retest propelled the price out of the trading range. So, here, I'm anticipating a similar uprise out of the spring formed on Dec. 23rd to a high near the bottom of the macro trading range (marked SOS on this chart) before a meaningful reversal. A cross and retest which sends the price up and out of this trading range would be a significant finding of this tool.
As always, this chart is open source. Please feel free to click "share" then "make it mine" in order to play with it for yourself.