BTC Top Comparison(April 21 vs Nov 21)The question on my mind - is this some sort of double top formation that could lead to a decline in price? I am going try to answer the best I can with justification for why this is not, in my opinion, a double top and we are shaping up for push higher; at least to previous highs again and maybe a bit more(from there we analyze the price again).
Justifications
Structural:
Looking at the two channels gives a picture of an upward trend in both cases. What is interesting is the is rounding we saw in the run up to the April top and a 3 push failure pattern that you see in distributional structures; signifying the exhaustion of demand.
Placing a volume profile of both structures, it shows an increase in activity at the very highs of the April top with a high POC in the trend channel. We look at the current position we see that is the opposite. We have a lower POC and what we see is a HVN(contracts have been traded a this higher level) yet the swapping of hands so to speak, is reduced across the upper part of the trend channel favoring some acceptance by both buyers and sellers as this higher level.
Time:
A promising aspect of the November price action is the ability to hold price at the higher levels. This is what we want to see when we favor a re-accumulation and subsequent continuation of higher prices.
By simple visual observation we can see how in April price supply easily caused an imbalance at the higher prices and price drop significantly; no demand could support the price. The current price action indicated some acceptance of the price at this level.
Volume:
Looking at the current dips from the tops we see volume on the supply side in April 21 was higher whereas this time we have a lower volume indicating some confidence that this is not a downward movement supported for continuation. The aggressiveness that was there before, looks to be less dramatic.
In the short term, I think we need to test the 62000 range as that lines up with a HVN and the monthly VWAP. If we can get above this level and hold I think we could get a continuation at least to the 70K range. From there we would analyze again and check the price action.
As noted on the chart, we could have another drop to the 0.5 retrace which looks to be a logical and would still support a continuation to the highs from the oversold condition.
Wyckoffreaccumulation
MANA Price TargetsWe're very clearly somewhere in the SOS or BU phase of this reaccumulation. So, I started asking how high can we go?
Here's what we have:
I drew two trend lines to consider possible future paths of respect. As you can see, they intersect very near the top of our upper band of resistance. So, as we back up, I think we will land in or near that yellow circle between the two trend lines. Using that as the bounce point, I then used the fib extension to guess at amplitude of the next run. Not knowing Elliott well enough to use that system as a way to check my work, I fully admit this may be off. If anyone knows Elliott well, maybe there's a place where our two methods come into focus with one another?
Price Targets I'm looking for:
ZONE 1: $5.00 - $5.50
ZONE 2: $5.50 - $6.50
ZONE 3: $6.50 - $8.00
AMC -- Reaccumulation After DeclineCheck my prior idea for a true big picture look at what I believe is happening with AMC. In the shorter term, I believe this Wyckoff schematic -- reaccumulation after decline -- best fits what's happened with AMC since June. If so, you can look at it combined with the cycle theory stuff and get a decent idea of how the next few turns in the road will play out.
That red line is a bars pattern from mid-April through the June run up. It's not meant to be predictive, just to give you a sense of how the next couple of phases in this cycle might go.
I've noticed with Wyckoff that your understanding unfolds as new data prints on the chart. So, in this case, the resistance creek could stretch out for a while... this schematic holds until we see a sharp drop below the support zone.
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Pretty cool company. Does pretty cool things.
LeTS ShORt tHIs cOmPANy
Wyckoff Re-Accumulation SchematicRemember that these are schematic patterns, meaning price action could have a similar trajectory, but it is important to learn about the characteristics of each phase and how to determine the differences in each one. Volume is a huge component of Wyckoff so see below for my favorite free resources to help learn more about Wyckoff:
Wyckoff Re-Accumulation Schematic (Wyckoff Anatomy of a Trading) #BTCUSD
Phase A: Shows Buying Climax stopping previous up move and more pronounced preliminary support and selling climax facilitating accumulation into stronger hands.
Phase B: Inconclusive evidence but does show us evidence of rally on good spread and volume.
Phase C: Shows final low on diminished volume compared to ST and holds support area above climax low. Move off of low shows pattern on expanding spread and volume.
Phase D & F: Continues pattern of Demand in Control.
Tesla in wyckoff reaccumilation phase If you guys remember my last post I correctly predicted that tesla would go up as it was in the last phase (E) and would run until the reaccumilation would occure as I had drawn in orange lines. It looks like this is it as todays drop made it very clear. I see this going diagonally up towards $1350 where we will see Tesla reach the end of the reaccumilation and second massive uptrend will take place before we go sideways and then drop down again. Another thing that I want to mention is that the possibility of a split occuring is increasing and that the last split happened at $1374. That and that Musks tweeted about Tesla becoming the largest company in the world would probably happen in a few months back in spring. If this is true and we get another split at $1350 I can see Tesla going all the way to $2500 or more which would beat Apples marketcap by a small margine before crashing down as the stock always does. I currently do not follow any technical indicators as Teslas beta number is almost twice that of a regular company meaning that the indicators are scewd alot and the only way to truelly know what to expect is to read the candlesticks and follow the wyckoff reaccumilation pattern.
Please take a look at my previous publication for more information regarding my prediction.
Do not take this for financial advice. This is merely speculation based on historical data, social media, patterns, trends and market manipulation that i suspect causes this.
SLV: Reaccumulation (Completing Phase C) /w Fundamental TailwindSLV is completing what I estimate to be Phase C of the re-accumulation cycle.
Fundamentally, I think of two impacts on the horizon.
We have more Fiscal "QE" - Biden's tax plan of injection another trillion or two into the economy. This would put pressure on the dollar and cause gold to rally along with its higher beta cousin (Silver).
Alternatively, there is a potential for short term rise in silver from those trying to escape the negative effects of longer duration. They would likely move up the curve in Fixed Income (but there is still some possibility of being run over by the Fed from raising rates, or adjusting their dot plots up) or alternatively avoid the front end of FI by moving their assets into currency hedged products like commodities and precious metals.
I think silver moves up and either breaks out of the channel soon, or continues to be trend bound. I think I will be playing this via short put and long stock combo.
xlm likely accumulationIt is too early to pre-empt whether xlm is truly in an accumulation. That not withstanding, I have identified a zone were price may react from if it happens to be an accumulation. Hopefuly we will see the ST(b) form.
This is of course if we experience btc bearishness soon as all crypto bends their knees to BTC.
Happy trading
$BTC 4hr - Re-distribution possible$BTC
Following on from an earlier post, here is a closer up of the possible case for re-distribution.
We can see from this that if this is correct then we are most likely right in the middle of the downside and are almost definitely going to see more downside. This is obviously also possible given the amount of financial unrest we are seeing in other markets primarily because of the China situation.
If this is to be true, then the chances that we will adhere to Plan B's theory that we would be at $43500 at the end of September are slim in comparison to the possibilities of re-accumulation that we have suggested in our posts that explore this.
Strangely, the previous candles do appear to correspond to both the re-distribution and the re-accumulation theories so time will tell and probably pretty rapidly as this is playing out through the 4hr timeframe as opposed to the Wyckoff distribution phase that first took place that was staged through the longer daily timeframe.
Trade safely guys and make sure to stay aware of these two distinct possibilities!
PumpeyeTheTraderMan & Crypto Society
$BTC Wyckoff 4hr re-accumulation poss$BTC 4HR Wyckoff re-accumulation
After some further analysis and overlays of chart patterns, I have come to the idea that this current phase that we are in fits best with the post drop accumulation and thereby that it is entirely possible that today may have been just over the half way point through the accumulation phase.
The pattern seems to mirror VERY accurately IMO although I couldn't squeeze it right using just Tradingview.
This would suggest that the end of this accumulation period would be very early October.
Trade safely guys and I would welcome your offerings on this perspective!
PumpeyeTheTraderMan
FCPO Wyckoff Re-accumulation : Spring Formation1. Price consolidation starting July 2021.
2. Automatic Rally (AR) with a large price drop to establish the support.
3. FCPO created ATH shows Sign of Strenght
4. Multiple Formation of Secondary Test (ST) with significant supply volume.
5. Noticed formation of the uptrend channel.
6. On 20 Sept 2021, the price drop significantly and close above the AR/support area with moderate volume. This is a good sign for bull.
7. Price will break the resistance to continue higher.
XRPUSDT Re-Accumulation Pattern (Wyckoff)This analysis is meant to illustrate the accumulation post the August 18th selling climax and automatic rally establishing support and resistance zones.
Wyckoff Re-Accumulation:
- Phase A & B sideways move lasted for about 13 days, with one retest of support.
- Phase C retest springs followed with sideways movement and a test and kickstart of a trend reversal.
- Phase D upwards channel is tightly traded
- Phase E missing, awaiting signs of strength: push beyond resistance
Additional Indicator Analysis:
- RSI has not reached oversold territories and has some upwards potential of a structure breakout, or accumulation at resistance levels.
- MACD has a golden cross within the next couple days, last dead cross appeared 14 days ago,
BINANCE:XRPUSDT
USDCHF REACCUMULATIONThis pair loves to consolidate but when it moves expect some nice pips.
I put a little time and thought to see the kind of consolidation this might be. To my eye, It looks more like a reaccumulation inside a larger re-accumulation.
I understand price makes repeated patterns in different time frames.
If this were to be the case then a 1:16 ratio isn't that bad.
S&P 500 REACCUMULATIONThis might be a reaccumulation in progress. Take partials during the bull run but the current high should be a nice place to take everything off