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Wyckoffreaccumulation

Ethereum Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics AnalysisIn this post, I'll be analyzing Ethereum's Tether pair (USDT), using the Wyckoff Method. What is the Wyckoff Method? The Wyckoff Method was developed by Richard Demille Wyckoff, a famous technical analyst of the early 20th century. He proposed the idea that markets can be understood through a detailed analysis of its supply and demand, which is seen through price action, volume, and time. He developed the idea of correctly anticipating and judging the direction and magnitude of a move out of a trading range. Why does Wyckoff's Method work so well in cryptocurrency markets? We can see Wyckoff's accumulation and distribution schematics working best when applied to cryptocurrency markets. This is mostly because his theory assumes a "composite man", a being who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the asset to your disadvantage if you don't understand the game he plays, and to great profit if you understand it. He event went as far as to say that it doesn't matter whether the market moves are real or not; whether it happens by real buying or selling, or artificial buying or selling by investors. As such, the Wyckoff Method is a perfect fit for a heavily manipulated market, such as the cryptocurrency market, as it allows traders to think like a whale. In the cryptocurrency market, thinking like a whale (a composite man) will help a trader profit tremendously. Terminology - Preliminary Support (PS): This is where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged downtrend. - Selling Climax (SC): This is the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy panic selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests near the bottom. - Automatic Rally (AR): This is where intense selling pressure is greatly diminished. - Secondary Test (ST): A point in which price revisits the area of the Selling Climax (SC) to test the supply and demand balance at these levels. - Sign of Strength (SOS): A point where the price advances on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. - Last Point of Support (LPS): The low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Analysis - Ethereum's chart on the 4h time frame can be interpreted from Wyckoff's accumulation schematics. - Phase A: This phase marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant. - Phase B: This phase serves as a function of a new uptrend. This is where professional interests accumulate, at relatively low prices, in preparation for the next markup. - Phase C: This is where stock prices go through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing smart money investors to confirm a markup - Phase D: If the analysis is correct, this is the phase in which consistent demand dominates supply - Phase E: The asset breaks out, leaving the trading range, and the markup is obvious to everyone in the market. Counterarguments - While Ethereum seems to consolidate in a bull flag pattern, it currently seems to lack the strength and momentum required to break through the resistance zones, to complete its markup. - Nonetheless, the weekly chart remains dominantly bullish - While there is a lack of momentum on the shorter time frames, it could be said that Ethereum has secured its significant support levels - It could also be said that the Wyckoff Accumulation is taking place within the support zone of the weekly chart, indicating signs of bullishness. Conclusion While it's difficult to rely solely on the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics for a clear picture of where Ethereum is headed next, it definitely help shed light on the price movement from an alternative perspective. Given that more volume flows into Ethereum, and the trend is supported by strength and volume, we could see the accumulation complete with a markup.
by Michael_Wang_Official
Liquidity is What is gold doing - A Smart Money TutorialFollow along with me here since I posted my last idea about this (see my linked ideas) Gold has done some interesting stuff. And now that I've had time to digest it, I understand what's going on (kinda). Ever had a trade where you knew you had the trade correct, it hits your sell limit and takes off and your twenty pips up. And before you know it, you 50 pip stop loss was hit, ever had that happen? That's liquidity and the banks/institutions know how to take it. My last Idea said there were bear candles that haven't been mitigated. This is a buy-to-sell or sell-to-buy candle that institutions do to either take out liquidity or create a better position to make more profit (if the make a large sell and it drops them 50 Pips, they quadruple their order to buy it convinces everyone else to buy, thus the banks make more money) But they're still holding that sell position. And that's the candle that needs to be mitigated. Meaning they need to get back to that candle so they can release their sell position so they are not in draw down anymore. and banks and institutions trade with millions of dollars so they can afford all of that draw down, but they don't want to lose that profit. So there is always game of mitigating candles. And with gold it's been happening a lot with the last down candle from the major 1000 point drop in one day. If you follow all of the down candles you'll be able to spot them, but I digress. Now, they still haven't mitigated the candle mentioned in the linked idea. And instead of mitigating them first Gold created a lot of liquidity and went straight for that liquidity. Now, Liquidity is where the money is, where people have their sell/buy limits, sell/buy stops set and their stop losses. Because once you hit a limit or an area someone would want to market execute, then you have liquidity. Typically these are highs lows, or equal highs and lows of a schematic. In this markup all of the blue lines represent where liquidity is (was in one case), because that's where you would set your limits and expect them to go the opposite direction, Amirite? Well the banks now this. So they will create these areas on purpose and go straight through them to take your money. Look at Liquidity 1 and then look at the red line I have showing the price action shooting up straight through that. Most retail traders had their sell limits right at the top of those double tops. So the banks just bought through them and took all of those retail traders out. Are you following me now? So now go back and look at the whole chart I drew up and where all of the liquidity is. The question is, which liquidity is it going to tak out first? and that's how you know when to sell or buy. But each of those liquidity areas were created for a reason, to trick retail traders into doing the same thing they would normally do. If you do sell or buy when it's taking out liquidity, your first target should always be close to your next nearest high or low becuase those highs or lows can have mitigation candles in them. The second target should be after the high or low as your taking out liquidity as well with this. And then you might have to close your trade and swap to the other side and do the same. Just follow liquidity and you'll know when and where to trade. OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BodiesXWix
Bitcoin in reaccumulation stage - Wyckoff method❓ What is reaccumulation? It is a trading range within a continuing uptrend. 🔸 Applying Wyckoff logic to the Bitcoin trading range gives us picture that shows reaccumulation after shakeout. 🔸 Absorption of supply happened in the trading range with strength and without violation of support. 🔸 The high of 10400+ and low of 7900+ (depending on the exchange you are trading on) might violate the common rules of Wyckoff reaccumulation. But conserning these volatile moves as a deviations out of the consolidation we see that the only purpose was to take liquidity. I believe that such wicks on Bitcoin are not of great importance. 🔸 A jump across the creek with the formation of SOS (sign of strength) will be a confirmation of an uptrend. ❗️ Reaccumulation can potentially have Spring action. Usually flat or sloping down formations have one. 🚫 Failing to get back quickly into the range after Spring will be a sign of weakness (SOW), that might lead price downwards.
Long
by killzonemaster
1
Bitcoin: Bearish Distribution Wyckoffian Analysis 1H (May 16)X Force Global Analysis: In this analysis, we explore Bitcoin's bearish scenario based on the Wyckoffian logic. Analysis - On the right hand side, we have a simple diagram of the market phases developed by Wyckoff. - It's important to remember Wyckoff's emphasis on supply and demand, cause and effect, and effort. - In the accumulation phase, there is a high supply with low demand. - The effect of high supply and low demand is rock bottom prices - The Mark Up phase occurs when the supply of an asset has been diminished - The demand then picks up when retail investors start taking notice of the upside of the underlying asset. - In the Distribution phase, demand stays the same, while supply increases - During the Mark Down phase, supply is at an all time high - Basd on the wyckoffian logic, we are currently at a distribution phase, looking for a Mark Down. - It's also important to note that we have been rejected constantly by the mid resistance of the bollinger band Market Sentiment: Long short ratios are at 73 to 27, with exceptional amounts of long and dominant bullish sentiment in the market. What We Believe As mentioned previously, a break and close above 10K was imperative for a bullish rally. However, it seems as though Bitcoin is having a hard time with rejection around 9.5k levels too. Interpreting this as a distribution phase, while a test of the 10K levels could definitely be possible, the bearish probabilities are still high, and the corrective scenario remains valid. Trade Safe.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by XForceGlobal
12
The Fundamentals of Wyckoff Theory Richard DeMille Wyckoff was a famous stock trader and investor, born in the late 19th century (1873–1934). Wykoff was a pioneer in the technical approach to stock market research. Wyckoff’s analyzed these market operators and their operations and concluded where risk and reward were optimal for trading. He shows the position of stop-losses at all times, the importance of managing the risk of any trade, and he explained techniques used to campaign within the large trend ( bullish and bearish ).Wyckoff also founded Wall Street Magazine. A five-step approach to the market. Wyckoff also developed specific Buying and Selling Tests, as well as a unique charting method based on Point and Figure (P&F) charts. While the tests help traders spot better entries, the P&F method is used to define trading targets. However, this article won’t dive into these two topics. Accumulation The Composite Man accumulates assets before most investors. This phase is usually marked by a sideways movement. The accumulation is done gradually to avoid the price from changing significantly. Uptrend When the Composite Man is holding enough shares, and the selling force is depleted, he starts pushing the market up. Naturally, the emerging trend attracts more investors, causing demand to increase. Notably, there may be multiple phases of accumulation during an uptrend. We may call them re-accumulation phases, where the bigger trend stops and consolidates for a while, before continuing its upward movement. As the market moves up, other investors are encouraged to buy. Eventually, even the general public become excited enough to get involved. At this point, demand is excessively higher than supply. Distribution Next, the Composite Man starts distributing his holdings. He sells his profitable positions to those entering the market at a late stage. Typically, the distribution phase is marked by a sideways movement that absorbs demand until it gets exhausted. Downtrend Soon after the distribution phase, the market starts reverting to the downside. In other words, after the Composite Man is done selling a good amount of his shares, he starts pushing the market down. Eventually, the supply becomes much greater than demand, and the downtrend is established. Similar to the uptrend, the downtrend may also have re-distribution phases. These are basically short-term consolidation between big price drops. They may also include Dead Cat Bounces or the so-called bull traps, where some buyers get trapped, hoping for a trend reversal that doesn’t happen. When the bearish trend is finally over, a new accumulation phase begins.
by TayFx
5
CUV: ASX - CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALSFrom September 2018 through to May 2019 this stock was in a re-accumulation phase. You can see there was a sell off in September when supply it the market and the stock pulled back. From November the stock hit support and from there we started making higher lows. We took at the top of the trading range in late February where we a sign of strength. The stock was sold into that rise and we pulled back again. It broke back down through the top of the range but bounced back very quickly. A definite last point of support before mark up. Completing the re-accumulation. The stock ran well from May to July. The first sign that there may be a significant pull back at some stage was the steepness of how it moved higher. We did see a large amount of supply come in - the most we had ever seen. Interestingly we only had a small pull back on lighter volume. The stock moved higher again with $40 in its sights. Look at the supply that came in June. A definite buying climax. A lot of retail traders were sucked into this one at that stage and the professionals were selling into the up move. This time we saw a significant pull back. A certain first sign of weakness. Price took out the low before the high (Where demand came in) and it looked as if it was forming a distribution range to move lower. The news changed that. It looks like further distribution then took place, which negated the need to move the stock sideways for a considerable time. I believe this stock was heavily accumulated back in the $0 - $5 range and this has been a very long and patient campaign. Stock was sold at approx $22, $29, $34, $38 and finally $44. A very successful campaign. $23.65 is the key level now. The low before the extreme move higher. If that is taken out, it could be heading a lot lower. If it can hold that level and consolidate and build another accumulation range, it may move higher. Right now its a holding pattern. Happy New Years!
ASX:CUV
by AussieWyckoff
BTCUSD 1H chart (5/10/2019)Good morning traders. Price printed a new 2019 high of $6336.93 in the past 24 hours. The more bearish among us continue to watch on in disbelief and reload shorts each time they're liquidated. The Bitfinex premium, which was recently almost $400, has now dipped to $120 while price has continued to rise. The Bitfinex Shorts/Long ratio remains at its highest levels ever. Overnight, price found resistance at the daily R2 pivot which had price hitting our target from May 8th. Among other more recent trading notations, I mentioned that as we were nearing the R1 pivot we would likely cross it, return to test it as support, and then target the R2 pivot. This is exactly what has happened. Price, during this time, has become increasingly parabolic which has me waiting for the final strong thrust up -- the last move before this leg is completed. I am not sure if we will get it, but even if we don't, I will stop out in fantastic profit. I still believe, especially now that we've made it to $6300, that the most reasonable course of action is to see price shoot up toward the upper $6000s to complete that parabolic move, and then consolidate in the $6000s for wave 4 before completing wave 5. So I am currently holding for the $6800 level, but have no problem exiting around $6500 if price action dictates that I should. If we can get wave 5 to end around the weekly/monthly pivot at ~$8000 then we can potentially see price returning to $4900/$5000 before starting its next large leg up. I am torn, however, as $6000 seems more likely to support price since it held as the floor throughout 2018. But because that lower possibility is there, I want to be sure you note it. In either case, it should be an easy short. This 1H chart shows price's current consolidation TR. Price has basically continued to trade in the upper half of the range which is generally considered bullish. That doesn't mean we can't see a Spring into the lower demand at $6160, but that is all that I would currently expect if price does drop lower. If it does happen to extend lower, then traders should be watching the demand noted at $6056 and $5890. For right now, a break through the top of the local horizontal TR should have price targeting the top of the ascending channel and a push through the channel's resistance should bring the ~$6800 target into play. I am watching for price to leave the descending red channel's resistance as an indication that price is likely ready to move up. The 1H Stoch RSI is oversold at this time suggesting a move up could come sooner (today) rather than later (tomorrow). Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 1H chart (5/8/2019)Good morning traders. I hope my continued insistence on risk management over everything else has gotten through to everyone. Yesterday's surprise news -- the Binance "hack" -- was a good example of the importance of risk management. Price dropped just over $200, as a result of the news, which liquidated many traders. The positive side to this is that Binance will cover the lost funds so traders didn't really lose anything. Normally, we would've expected to see a $1000 drop due to the news yet we only saw a third of that, and this morning we have already seen price recover all but $25 so far. During the drop, in our Discord last night, I mentioned that I wouldn't be surprised to see price rise back up and even make new 2019 highs pretty quickly. Why? Because accumulation has been occurring for quite a while which should mean that there isn't a lot of loose asset in the market. If much of the asset is in professional hands due to cyclical accumulation, then retail doesn't have the supply to cause price to drop significantly and stay down when they sell emotionally based on the Binance news. If this is the case, then the most likely result is that the professionals should be scooping up the retail selling. And here we are this morning, with a high that is just a few dollars off the price level when the news broke. Personally, I went long at $5772. I attempted to enter at $5720, after the 15 minute candle closed and confirmed a likely bounce, but couldn't get the order confirmed with the exchange until the higher price due to the overloaded servers. So I remain long toward my upper targets that I have mentioned numerous times in previous analysis. The 1H chart shows a great reversal candle at the bottom of the drop. We can see that price ultimately bounced at the EQ of the May 3rd TR with the candle body being supported by the HVN at $5750. Note that the volume associated with this reversal candle was greater than the volume associated with the supply candle prior to it (demand is stronger than supply). But even that supply candle's volume was less than the volume of the similar $200 supply candle earlier that morning. This tells us that there isn't as much interest in selling at these lower prices which generally means that price is ready to continue moving higher. I have relabeled the recent price action to better fit the activity seen last night. Price is now back above the 21 EMA and the top of the May 3rd TR, and has reclaimed the ascending red channel's EQ, which is bullish. It should also be noted that the move down also helped price possibly play out the 4H bearish divergence that was printing. If price can close above $5910, then I believe we will be seeing $6000 much sooner than later. I continue to watch for a close above the swing high at $5970. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1H chart (5/7/2019)Good morning traders. Bitcoin price reached $5970 yesterday evening and, in typical retail trader fashion, now people are starting to think about entering. Unless you have a lot of experience and understand/employ strong risk management, it makes little sense to enter right now just as price is entering overheard resistance. There's too much risk associated with price suddenly dropping due to the resistance. While I do believe we have some further upward momentum coming, it is not guaranteed by any means. One of the most basic trading axioms is to never short support or long resistance -- traders should always wait for a break and confirmation of directional continuation. If price continues upward, as I expect, then we will likely see news reports about it thereby encouraging new retail money to enter the market and that leads us to the "theory." There is a theory making its rounds through social media stating that professionals accumulated at $3100 and are going to sell it at $6000-$6500 after news hits the wires that price overcome $6K, because there will be a flood of new money to buy all that distribution. First, accumulation most likely appears to have occurred around $6000 and $3100 (after the hypodermic distribution, it's actually most likely that price entered, specifically, an accumulation with weakness phase where we see lower lows and highs as accumulation occurs in the form of a descending wedge). If that's the case, then there won't be a significant dumping at the $6000 level. Second, even if all the accumulation happened at $3100, the idea of major cycle accumulation is to hold, not sell it at 100%. As such, the professionals wouldn't be selling everything for a measly 100% profit. The nearest version of truth to this theory would be that price will make much lower new lows (think: sub-$2000). In that case, the strong accumulation that the theory states took place at $3100 wouldn't be true because professionals wouldn't be accumulating that heavily for just a 100% possible profit. There is a fundamental lack of understanding of market cycles and accumulation/distribution phases that runs rampant on cryptotwitter and tradingview. Continue following it at your own peril. So what are we seeing at the moment? The 1H chart shows price printing a local TR/flag at the ascending channel's resistance. We want to see a close above last night's $5970 swing high now. If we can get that then, based on the height of the red ascending channel, price should be targeting the $6265 level, just under the R2 pivot (which is also just a couple of hundred dollars below the top of the large ascending channel. With shorts continuing to build, at what point do you think people will stop shorting and start longing? Such a move has the potential to pop price significantly upward and establish the $6000 level as support, lower price never to be seen again. Until that close above the swing high, though, this could just be a bull trap above channel resistance. The 1H 21 EMA appears to be continuing to provide support and the current candle looks like a liquidity-generating Terminal Shakeout, but we will need to see how the candle closes. For now, we should expect the HVNs at $5765-$5685 to provide support. Below that, we should be watching $5590 for support. If we don't see upward continuation today, then we may confirm the 4H bearish divergence that's printing. For now, I'm still expecting the November 18th supply/demand flip to ultimately provide support. So far, we are seeing strong demand devouring the incoming supply as this drop retested the larger, May 3rd, TR as support. This is likely printing a BUEC/LPS before the next move up. It's my belief that traders are concentrating on the very short TFs right now, rather than zooming out to the bigger picture and, as a result, will provide fuel to any upward movement from here as they continue to get shaken out by the lower TF noise. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BCHSV UptrendHi friends! Welcome to Poop's Wyckoff Analysis on $BCHSV. BCHSV is showing signs of a textbook Wyckoff Reaccumulation. What we have seen so far? -There was a pause on a prior uptrend. The prior uptrend was backed by strong volume. -There was a case build for a new uptrend, a 6 weeks of consolidation within the re-accumulation trading range. -RSI divergence supports this observation. The bullish trend is about to resume. The projected move is around 90% from its current price level. That's it friends, I looking forward for your comments on this . This is just a guide, not a trading advise. Hit like and follow for more chart updates! Thanks -Your Wychoff Poop Trader
Long
by PoopTrader
9