Consolidation before expansion -- Bitcoin's path to $9600.Good morning, traders. Alts continue to push upward while Bitcoin moves sideways. A preview of things to come? Most likely. While a true alt season won't begin until Bitcoin finishes a true bull run, we should see good days for alts along the way at these points where we find Bitcoin consolidating/moving sideways. I realize there are people out there calling for further movement down before the start of the next wave, however as I outlined last night, price appears to be in reaccumulation (hence the sideways movement).
This reaccumulation has created a pennant and price is currently nearing its apex. Price appears to have completed the ABCD portion with only the E remaining. As such, it does appear that we are in subwave 4 and will see subwave 5 target the $9550/$9600 area based on the size of the flagpole leading to the pennant which is subwave 4. This 3.618 extension of this movement from the June low is at $9612.90, and the 61.8 extension of the movement from the February high to the June low sits at $9483.40. If price remains within the ascending channel, then we should expect to hit that subwave 5 target around July 29th (potentially late in the night on July 28th). This will complete Wave 1 of the larger degree and take price above the daily cloud. This latter event will be the first time that price has moved above the daily cloud with the double Ichimoku settings since mid-January.
While I don't expect a spring at the moment, there is always the possibility we could see one that drops price through the bottom of the pennant toward $8000 and then reverses in order to shakeout the remaining weak hands at this point and suck up that excess supply of the asset so that price can complete its trek upward. There are never any guarantees concerning price movement, however, so traders should never be lazy with their risk management. The ONLY thing you control in the market is how much you lose.
