Analysis XAGUSD : 📅 11/21/2022XAGUSD analysis:
Due to the weakness in the continuation of the rise and the breakdown of the sideways price floor
and the formation of a downward trend, we can expect a correction to the ceiling of the trend and move towards the downward targets
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price: 21.09000
sl: 21.45000
tp: 20.05500
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👤 Alireza hajighasem : @alirezahajighasem
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📅 11/21/2022
XAG
RLinda ! GOLD-> The appearance of bearish signalsGold is testing the trendline resistance formed since September 1, 2022. The price has not reached the daily MA-200, at the same time a false break of the upside resistance, horizontal resistance of 1765.575 and a bullish signal from the Gartley pattern is formed.
(Chart 1. Daily timeframe)
Gold closed Friday's afternoon candlestick in its lows, which can be interpreted as an incomplete move that might continue. Therefore, it looks like the price will get weaker. At the same time, gold's fall was helped by a stronger dollar and rising 10-year government bond yields (10-year U.S. bond yields rose 5 basis points to 3.821%. )
The drop came as the dollar rose after an early weakening, making the precious metal more expensive for international buyers. The ICE dollar index rose 0.25 basis points last time out.
Nevertheless, gold remains near a three-month high as investors count on the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates.
(Chart 2. Daily Timeframe. Bullish Signal Formation using the "Bat Pattern" as an example)
Technical Analysis:
Gold continues to experience pressure from the resistance in the form of the daily MA-200, the price is in an upward range.
The price makes a false break of the strong resistance zone and forms a decline, also a bullish signal is indicated by the presence of a bearish Gartley "Bat" pattern
The daily Gartley pattern is a pullback to 0.889 (ideally 0.886) from the XA movement. A signal for a bullish move.
Daily RSI gives a bearish signal, the price indicator on the chart also coincides with it
The daily MACD tends to the crossover point of the sliders, at the same time the chart fades after the green spike, indicating a corrective movement.
(Chart 3. 4-hour timeframe XAUUSD. Formation of the pattern H&S)
On the above chart we also see a false break-through of the resistance 1765.575 and at the same time a strong bearish pattern "Head & Shoulders" is confirmed. I expect that from the session opening there can be a small pullback to the previously broken support of the pattern with the subsequent fall towards the support level of 1727.85
Sincerely R. Linda
💡SILVER (XAGUSD) - Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 17.520, resumption of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 22.417 breaks.
If the support at 17.520 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of uptrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 22.245 on 11/15/2022, so more losses to support(s) 20.621, 19.939, 19.525 and minimum to Major Support (17.520) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 56.
Take Profits:
19.939
20.621
21.200
22.417
24.129
25.986
26.940
28.304
29.850
37.500
44.200
49.800
60.000
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RLinda ! GOLD-> Distribution→Accumulation→... What's next? Gold has been surprising lately with its strong gains, renewing its August 16 high to 1786.545, which is almost 10% since early November, but a technical pullback is forming at the moment, which at the same time shows interesting things that could excite both bulls and bears.
(Chart 1. Daily timeframe of the XAUUSD chart)
On the one hand, the futures are experiencing, U.S. economic data showing a decline in inflation, which gives the Fed an opportunity to slow tightening, which should help gold.
On the other hand, the metal's price is affected by the Fed's caution, which does not want to change the tone of its message based on any one piece of economic material
Gold lost 15% from its March peak after the Fed began tightening monetary policy, but it has risen nearly 10% since early November as markets began to assess a slower pace of rate hikes.
(Chart2: Daily DXY Timeframe Technical Analysis)
The DXY dollar index fell, making bullion cheaper for overseas buyers. However, the currency was still aiming for weekly gains as the Fed's tough stance put the brakes on the pullback caused by softer inflation data last week.
But at the same time there is no strong pullback after the decline in the index, the price is forming a consolidation with locally lower daily highs. Price tends to test the daily MA-200.
Daily RSI is trading in the red zone below the neutral line
The daily MACD is signaling a strong bearish bias.
(Chart3: Daily Gold Timeframe Technical Analysis)
The daily gold chart indicates a false breakout of resistance at 1765.575, but at the same time price is returning to retest the level from below.
Price tries to test the daily MA-200, but it has to break through the resistance zone of 1765-1770 before it can advance to 1807.
Daily RSI is showing a bearish signal
Daily MACD is showing a bullish slowdown. Price is going into a consolidation phase.
(Chart4. Lower timeframe. Formation of bearish pattern) .
On the 30 minute chart, price exits the upward price channel after a false breakdown of resistance 1765.575. The price from distributive movement moves into consolidation phase.
Also, the right shoulder pattern "Head and Shoulders" starts to form, signaling us about a possible drop in price, in case of breakdown of the pattern support.
Market sentiment is doubtful and in this case a logical outcome will be to see a pullback to the nearest support - 1726.795
Regards R. Linda!
RLinda ! GOLD-> False breakdown. The beginning of a correction? GOLD advances to a price high of 1786.545 on Tuesday, up nearly 10.5% overall from the bottom. The price makes a new high on August 16, 2022.
(Chart1. Daily Timeframe. Technical Analysis)
On the global chart, price makes a false breakout of the 1765.575 level and today price is updating the low of the last 3 days.
The price did not reach about 18 dollars to the resistance of the daily MA-200. Gold enters the range of 1765.5-1726.8 and it has a downside potential of 2.2%.
Daily RSI is forming a bearish signal and it's signaling the beginning of a down-correction.
Daily MACD is still bullish
On the hourly chart, a consolidation is forming under the level of 1765.23 after a false breakdown. The important zones ahead are as 0.786 FIBO and 0.618 FIBO, the latter is under the support of 1727.85. I expect that if this maneuver is not false and the price forms the first step for a technical pullback, the fall of the price can reach the 1727.85 zone and test the key Fibonacci level, which is at 1721.65
Regards R. Linda
Silver is under selling pressure.Silver on the 4-hour timeframe is still facing a very difficult resistance, as it did not close above 22 until it tested this resistance three times and it did not succeed, so we expect silver to fall from these prices towards 20.42 areas, and then to 19.74 areas.
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The four golden rules of trading
1 Don't be greedy
2 Always use stop loss
3 Never add other positions to the losing positions
4 Use a suitable lot for your account
Buying Silver at trend of higher lows.Silver - Intraday - We look to Buy at 21.62 (stop at 21.37)
Dips continue to attract buyers.
Bespoke resistance is located at 22.69.
Due to an Ending Wedge formation, we continue to treat extended gains with caution.
The trend of higher lows is located at 21.53.
Bespoke support is located at 21.62.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Intraday signals are far from strong.
Our profit targets will be 22.36 and 22.56
Resistance: 22.24 / 22.69 / 23.00
Support: 21.62 / 21.53 / 20.78
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RLinda ! GOLD-> Medium-term perspective. Long or short?Gold prices rose to a three-month high of $1785, supported by a weaker dollar amid hopes that the Fed will take a less aggressive approach to raising rates in the future. Gold has had a very strong rally from $1618 and should consolidate a bit in the short term now. However, the overall risk remains very high.
(Chart 1. Price correlation between DXY, US Bonds, XAUUSD from the opening session on Monday until now)
DXY has risen to 107.2 since Monday, the correction is over and the fall has continued to almost $106, renewing the local low
The U.S. government bond is down 2.2% since Monday
[Gold makes a new three-month high at 1785 and a correction is underway. The overall gain since Monday is almost 1.3%.
The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund, reported that its holdings rose 0.03% to 910.41 tons Monday from 910.12 tons Friday.
Speculators reduced net short positions by 30,659 contracts to 8,219 on COMEX gold in the week to Nov. 8
Global stock indexes fell Monday and U.S. bond yields rose as investors assessed comments from Federal Reserve officials trying to determine the central bank's path forward on raising rates.
(Chart 2. Daily chart of gold. Visual indicator of the rise from the November low)
Gold prices have risen more than $160 since falling to a low of 1,618 earlier this month. Data on the rise in the U.S. unemployment rate in October and signs of easing inflation have sparked optimism about a slowdown in Fed policy.
Traders now rate the odds of a 50-basis-point rate hike higher than a 75-point hike at the U.S. central bank's December meeting. Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates tend to make bullion less attractive because the metal does not pay interest.
(Chart 3. Daily chart of gold with overlaid indicators. Technical Analysis)
Gold Price Outlook:
Gold prices are making gains amid declining real yields in the U.S. However, until gold prices break the downtrend from the highs of March and August, it is too early to talk about the medium-term outlook.
Gold prices are bullish in the near term, according to the Market Sentiment Index.
An unexpected decline in U.S. inflation in October helped gold prices reach their highest level since mid-August.
Globally, gold is bumping up against downtrend resistance, I think it's worth pushing back from that
Technical indicators:
The weekly chart shows us the fact that the price is still in a downtrend but is testing resistance amid distributive growth, also last week the price is breaking through a strong trend line and essentially is currently sandwiched between the trend line from 2018 and the price channel resistance. I tend to think that price could go into consolidation or a technical pullback after the distribution and go down to the 1726 zone, but with force majeure and a breakdown of the channel resistance there is potential for a rise to 1878
The price is under the pressure of the daily MA-200 and also the moving average coincides with the nearest strong resistance of 1807.96, to which the price can react with a pullback. I think this resistance level is the nearest key target
The daily MA-50 is still supporting the price, forming a curve indicating a bullish trend.
The daily RSI is entering the oversold area and may indicate a bearish signal in the near term, which will trigger many active traders
The daily MACD is in a bullish outlook, with both lines (MACD line and signal line) indicating a bullish trend, which coincides with the mood of the chart.
Key targets:
Long positions - resistance 1807.96
On a pullback:
First target - support 1765
Second target - support 1726.
Regards R. Linda!
SILVER Will Fall! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER went up after the breakout
Of the horizontal resistance
Just as I predicted earlier
But the next resistance
Is ahead and after the retest
The price is expected to go down
Towards the demand level below
Sell!
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💡SILVER (XAGUSD) - Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 17.520, beginning of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 21.200 breaks.
If the support at 17.520 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of uptrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI downtrend #1 is not broken, bearish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 18.080 on 10/14/2022, so more gains maximum to Major Resistance (21.200) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 64.
Take Profits:
19.939
20.621
21.200
22.417
24.129
25.986
26.940
28.304
29.850
37.500
44.200
49.800
60.000
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💡SILVER (XAGUSD) - Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 17.520, beginning of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 21.200 breaks.
If the support at 17.520 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of uptrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI downtrend #1 is not broken, bearish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 18.080 on 10/14/2022, so more gains maximum to Major Resistance (21.200) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index ( RSI ) is 64.
Take Profits:
19.939
20.621
21.200
22.417
24.129
25.986
26.940
28.304
29.850
37.500
44.200
49.800
60.000
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
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💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader?
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Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
✅SILVER MOVE DOWN AHEAD|SHORT🔥
✅SILVER is about to retest a key structure level
Which implies a high likelihood of a move down
As some market participants will be taking profit from long positions
While others will find this price level to be good for selling
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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SILVER Reversal Coming! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER surged up sharply on
The fundamental data, but now
The commodity is locally oversold
So as the price is approaching
A horizontal resistance I think
We will see a bearish pullback
Sell!
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See other ideas below too!