XAG
Potential bearish reversalXAG/USD is rising towards a resistance level at 28.515, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A reversal from this level could lead the price to drop to our take profit target.
Entry: 28.515
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
Stop loss: 29.621
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance
Take profit: 27.308
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level
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Black swan?When we view the price of XAGUSD since 2000, we see an asset which historically has done very well in the event of turmoil.
When we had the dot com bubble burst in late 2000 we saw a significant price rally in the metals, Id imagine as people reinvest money as their tech stocks began to fall, does this have correlation with todays NASDAQ? If the NAS continued from todays sell off could we potentially see the same shift of funds?
Next we had the GFC in 2008 an historic event which changed the financial health of the economy drastically and we saw historical low interest rates, also during this period silver had a significant climb.
2020 and Covid strikes, another large move in Silver as we saw another catastrophic blow to the worlds economic affairs with crazy spending and debt creation, high inflation period.
We then saw this balanced market of consolidation in the silver market, and it appears to be that we have broken this range, however some added confirmation is a plus.
Where does this leave us? well statistically the large silver moves above 90% have all been caused by a market event, if we are seeing the beginning of a bull run in silver, which is lagging xauusd currently, we have seen this crazy 20% rise in the price of xau, but silver is following slowly, if we see this balance off and some market price rising over the coming weeks, we could potentially be in the midst of market event.
Making your first million is the hardestAfter that, it's leverage.
The issue for me as a long-time trader, is people these days don't seem to have time, patience or the ability to absorb information.
They read an article or watch a few seconds of a stream and assume they know!
I am not just talking crypto, I mean in general. The attention span of a fish.
I read a pretty decent article by this guy @holeyprofit
He talked about Bitcoin Mania with a lot of truth, most people won't want to hear.
Article here
The issue is the whole market right now are currently hinging on or near their all-time highs, Gold, Bitcoin, SPX (S&P500) stocks such as Meta, NVIDIA and loads of others.
Instead of shouting for even greater highs, the question should be "what is sustaining the rally?"
For the majority of retail traders, they assume it's different this time. Gamestop was up until it was not.
The issue is that they never learn. They have no concept of time factors and the assumption that markets only ever go up is the very reason the majority of traders stay broke.
Crypto is a really interesting space, when I first got involved in 2011, it was a punt. I got lucky, but buying cheap and selling high is what most people strive for. Yet, reading posts and social media content - nobody sells, they all buy low, stacking sats when the price drops. So where is the profit? Well paper gains I assume.
Game stop...
Not to focus on Crypto; the markets as a whole can be profitable and just like Kenny Rogers said - "if you're going to play the game boy, you got to learn to play it right. know when to hold, know when to fold, know when to walk away and know when to run"
Every hand's a winner - every hand's a loser.
Key message there!!!
Trading vs investments - if you are looking to make it big on one deal, that's different than profiting from the market every week, every month and every year.
Risk management is key, scaling your account, cutting losers quickly and adding to winners. Many won't understand this concept. Markets go up and everyone is a genius in a bull market.
Once you start scaling an account, the trade percentages in terms of rewards you seek don't matter the same. You don't need 10x returns on your thousand dollars.
A 3% win on your million-dollar account is a different game.
Back in 2021; I wrote this educational post about the psychology of the markets. I used the Simpsons as a way to get the message over.
Markets breathe and the rise and fall, rise and fall.
Once you realise you can take from the market consistently, you will see the stress disappear, and the care of price up or down matters less. Your investment criteria changes and the scope gets wider. This is how you scale from that first million, into the second and third. Not having all eggs in one basket and hope it goes up forever.
What if gold drops 10% and you are long? can you afford a 5 year spell on the investment you have? These are the kinds of questions you need to be asking yourself.
What if Bitcoin's halving is a buy the rumour, sell the news and we take another 3 years to get back to a new ATH?
"ah it's different this time" - yeah I heard all that in 2021 when certain influencers were calling for $135,000 worse case within a month. We are 2024 and still roughly half of the way to 135k??
I know for you guys who want to learn and progress you would have read this far; for those who "already know" they have stopped reading about 4 lines in and seeing a picture or 2. They leave a comment due to their keyboard warrior mindset and fish-like capacity for thinking.
The point is to ensure you deploy proper risk management, especially here near the tops of a lot of these markets, trail your stop losses, and don't forget to cash out your profits. Paper gains can quickly become paper losses. If you're serious about money making, be prepared to diversify, be prepared to sit on your hands, keep cash in your pocket as well as be prepared to take calculated risks.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
SILVER Seeks Support at $22.00 Amidst Rate Cut ExpectationsOn Monday, silver experienced a sharp downturn, revisiting the $22.00 mark, reflecting a more than 2.5% decrease from its previous close. Market participants swiftly adjusted their expectations of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), leading to a substantial sell-off in the white metal.
Technical Analysis:
From a technical standpoint, the current price is positioned in a crucial support area around $22.00. This zone is fortified by a dynamic trendline, historically supportive of price rebounds. Additionally, the 78.6% Fibonacci level acts as a potential discount area, offering a foundation for the price to find support. The Stochastic indicator remains in oversold conditions, signaling the potential for a rebound. Anticipating a recovery, our outlook targets a return to $24.50 and $26.00 in extension.
Economic Landscape:
Turning to economic news, the CME Fedwatch tool suggests that investors are now eyeing a potential interest rate cut in May. This shift in sentiment is attributed to persistent price pressures driven by robust household spending and favorable labor market conditions. The upcoming focus of the week will be on the release of United States Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data scheduled for Thursday. A positive GDP reading would reinforce the narrative of 'higher interest rates,' aligning with the Fed's cautious approach towards premature rate cuts.
Outlook:
As silver grapples with the $22.00 support, the interplay of technical factors and market sentiment becomes crucial. The dynamic trendline and Fibonacci support offer a potential springboard for a price rebound. However, the economic landscape, particularly the GDP data release, will significantly influence the metal's trajectory. Traders are advised to closely monitor developments to navigate potential price fluctuations in the coming days.
Conclusion:
The silver market finds itself at a critical juncture, seeking support at $22.00 amid shifting expectations of Fed rate cuts. Technical indicators suggest the potential for a rebound, yet the economic data release later in the week will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in determining silver's path. Traders should exercise caution, staying adaptable to evolving market dynamics as they unfold throughout the week.
Our preference
Long positions Above Support Area $20 with targets at 24.50 & 26 in extension.
SILVER Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER broke the key
Horizontal level of 27.00$
Which is now a support and
Went further up confidently
Which reinforces our bullish
Bias and makes me expect
A further move up and a
Retest of the horizontal
Resistance above at 30.00$
Buy!
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Silver MonthlyTarget for the next several months is ~20 usd
The sooner we hit it, the sooner we can start another bullish leg.
Short Term Targets are bullish ~23 usd
Anything can happen in this market, as JPM, Deutsche, USB, HSBC have all been fined for spoofing or manipulating the silver market in the past 3-4 years.
Silver (XAGUSD): Starting to go up!Silver (XAGUSD): OANDA:XAGUSD
In Silver, we believe we have formed the low with Wave 2 at $21.93. Since then, we've developed Waves (i) and (ii), and now likely Wave (iii) as well. It appears we've caught up with Wave (5) at the 50% extension level at $25.36. Should we now drop for Wave (iv), we expect it to be in the range between 38.2% and 61.8%, more precisely between $24.12 and $23.30. The $23.30 level is also our invalidation level, as that's where the stop of Wave (i) is located. Initially, we believe we will accept the support zone at the subordinate Wave (4) for the overarching Wave (iv). We see this as a very interesting zone and, looking upwards, we believe we will head towards the $26 mark.