XAG USD ( Silver / US Dollar)
Has silver turned the corner?Silver's bullish engulfing candle on Thursday may have marked the end of the corrective phase for the metal, potentially paving the way for a new bull trend.
On Thursday, XAGUSD found strong support from the area around $26.50, where it had taken off in May. It is essential that it now finds some follow-through on the upside.
An ideal scenario for the bulls today would be if we can close above resistance in the $27.60-$28.00 range, with a more significant level seen around $28.65.
Short-term support is seen around $27.26, marking Thursday's high. It is important that silver at the very least holds above this level heading into the close.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Silver Could Be BottomingSilver has been slowing down for the last three months, but drop on 4h time frame is in three waves A-B-C, which indicates for a corrective decline within higher degree wave IV. It's now potentially finishing final subwave (5) of C at 26.50 - 26.00 strong and key support area. If we get sharp or five-wave impulsive recovery back above 29.22 first bullish evidence level, then it can easily send the price back to highs for wave V.
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis on Silver (XAGUSD) Looking to BuyShort Term Elliott Wave View in Silver (XAGUSD) suggests that pullback to 28.58 low ended a wave (A). The metal turned higher again in wave (B) ended at 31.75 high. The market resuming lower from wave (B) high breaking below 28.58 low to rule a larger correction. It means, Silver is developing a wave (C) of ((4)) as a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (B), wave ((i)) ended at 28.65 and wave ((ii)) ended at 29.45. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 27.40, and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 28.19. Wave ((v)) ended at 27.29 which completed wave 1. Pullback in wave 2 ended at 29.22 high and the metal resumed lower in wave 3.
Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 27.93 and wave ((ii)) ended at 28.67. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 26.49, and pullback in wave ((iv)) built a triangle structure ended at 27.16. Currently, silver is trading in wave ((v)) of 3. We are calling for one more low to end the cycle. The ideal place to end this wave comes in 26.32 – 26.06 area, where buyers should appear to start wave 4 pullback. Near term, as far as pivot at 29.22 high stays intact, expect pullback as wave 4 to fail in 3, 7 or 11 swing for further downside in wave 5 of (C).
XAGUSD:Clear Bearish Pattern Signals Potential Short OpportunityHey Realistic Traders, let's dive into the technical analysis of OANDA:XAGUSD
XAGUSD has consistently moved below the EMA90 line, indicating a strong bearish trend. Historically, it also broke the Ascending Broadening Wedge (ABW) pattern, and more recently, it broke out of the symmetrical triangle. This second breakout strengthens the possibility of continued bearish movement. Additionally, the MACD has formed a bearish crossover, where the MACD line crosses below the signal line, suggesting potential downward momentum. These technical indicators support a potential downside movement to 26.02030 (Target 1) and 25.44300 (Target 2).
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/resistance area is reached.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on XAGUSD."
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SILVER: Bulls Will Push Higher
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current SILVER chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the upward direction.
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Silver has a strong bearish momentum, could it fall further?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 27.68
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 28.16
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 26.86
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SILVER BUY OVERVIEWHere's the beauty of closing out partial profits & sticking to your rules in trading. We originally closed out 50% of our position at £18,000 profit, followed by the remaining 50% at £17,600 profit, as I kept an eye on price action & noticed price would likely start dropping now.
We made 0 losses & enormous profits off our Silver buy analysis, which was called live for you all🦾
Silver Faces Increasing Pressure: Cautious SentimentSLO2 @ 31.77 📉
SLO1 @ 30.28 📉
TP1 @ 27.43
TP2 @ 25.03
TP3 @ 23.27
TP4 @ 20.55
BLO1 @ 19.89 ⏳
BLO2 @ 18.30⏳
SL @ 17.55 🚫
🔑
BLO = BUY LIMIT ORDER
SLO = SELL LIMIT ORDER
TP = TAKE PROFIT
SL = STOP LOSS
📉 = Order Triggered
⏳ = Order Pending
SUMMARY
The current market sentiment and technical indicators suggest that the silver downtrend may continue. Nevertheless, the current circumstances are subject to change, so it is advisable for traders to proceed with caution and carefully observe any updates in the market.
FUNDAMENTAL
The price of silver has pulled back to around $28 per ounce, reversing its recent gains due to concerns about a potential recession and a general increase in risk aversion. Concerns about a potential economic downturn have been heightened by the US economy's weaker-than-expected job growth in July. As a result, investors are now looking for safe-haven assets.
TECHNICAL
Despite the anticipation of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the general market sentiment remains pessimistic for silver. Based on the technical indicators, it appears that the downtrend may continue, as the short-term moving averages are currently positioned below the longer-term averages. Nevertheless, it is crucial to take into account the conflicting signals from various technical tools and closely observe fundamental developments before finalizing any trading decisions.
FUTURES
In addition, the recent decrease in delivery volume in the Comex silver futures market suggests a decrease in physical demand. Although this data point is worth considering, it is important to analyze it in the larger market context in order to make meaningful conclusions about the price trajectory of XAGUSD.
Unlocking the Power of Option Analysis for Forex TradingFiltering Options by Sentiment: A Key to Profitable Trading
As traders, we're constantly on the lookout for ways to gain an edge in the markets.
Option portfolios analysis is not a magic solution for success itself, but it can and should be a great tool to add to your trading strategy.
Learning how to analyze the option portfolios of big and successful players on one of the world's biggest exchanges can really improve your market awareness and give you more confidence when reading the current market trends.
The Power of Option Analysis
Option analysis is not just about identifying bullish or bearish sentiment. It's about understanding the nuances of market psychology and identifying opportunities that others may be missing. By filtering options by sentiment, we can identify portfolios that are more likely to result in profitable trades.
Key Factors to Consider
When filtering options by sentiment, there are several key factors to consider:
1. Size and value of the option portfolio
2. Distance from the central strike (Delta)
3. Time to expiration
4.Appearance on the rise/fall of the underlying asset
By considering these factors, we can identify option portfolios that are more likely to result in profitable trades.
As mentioned above, option portfolios with names such as vertical spread, butterfly, and condor (in English - VERTICAL SPREAD, IRON FLY/FLY, CONDOR/IRON CONDOR) have predictive sentiment regarding the direction of the asset's price movement. However, it is critically important to be able to filter out such sentiment, since similar portfolios are widely used and appear almost daily in CME exchange reports, but only a small percentage of them have predictive value.
Portfolios that are traded during a price movement with an obvious trend have low value. On the other hand, if a portfolio appears in a sideways market before the start of a trend and meets other conditions, which will be discussed later, it is reasonable to fix such a portfolio on the chart and subsequently track its correction (closure/partial closure/re-sale).
If you "caught" such a portfolio that is already generating profit for its owner, i.e., the price is moving in the desired direction, you get an additional bonus: by tracking changes in this portfolio, you can understand whether the price movement will continue in the chosen direction or whether the movement is fading or has exhausted its potential and it's time to close your position.
It is necessary to track changes daily using QuickStrike and GlobexTradeBrowser by CME GROUP.
If you track less frequently, you can lose the thread of sentiment. I recommend performing analysis on a regular basis.
Some examples:
On July 17th, there was a really big beat on the Japanese yen in the options market for October. The bed was based on the idea that the yen futures would go up (or the dollar/yen forex rate would fall). As we saw, the bat started to pay off almost immediately, and the yen came really close to the target in just a few days!
Could we have used this information for forex trading? Absolutely. The risk-reward ratio on this trade was about 1 : 3, but importantly , when we made this trade, we had real insider information. Insiders are required by the exchange to disclose their trades, just like other market participants.
Not using this free information in your trades would be a big mistake for a serious trader who doesn't want to gamble in market.
Another example:
In April this year, we saw a strong bullish option sentiment for Silver prices rising between $32 and $35, based on a large options portfolio stated at around $27.5. We released our forecast for Silver, and you can find a copy of it with our reasoning at the link
Cooper example:
The forecast was made after analyzing option activity on the CME exchange on April 2. You can check the results yourself and see if the time we spent studying option sentiment and analyzing was worth it.
In conclusion, as you can see, incorporating option analysis into your toolkit can really help you make more informed trading decisions.
To all serious traders, I wish you patience and dedication on your journey to trading success. Remember that mastering the art of trading takes time, effort, and perseverance. Don't be discouraged by setbacks or losses, but instead, use them as opportunities to learn and improve. Stay focused, stay disciplined, and stay committed to your goals.
Potential bullish bounce?XAG/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 28.15
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 27.70
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
Take profit: 28.86
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish rise?The Silver (XAG/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 28.18
1st Support: 27.90
1st Resistance: 28.81
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
SILVER ( TRYING TO RETEST A TURNING LEVEL (1) ) (4H)XAGUSD
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , the price is under bearish pressure , after breakout channel .
TURNING LEVEL (1) : the price of this level at 28.20 , so if the price breaking this level reach a resistance level (1) .
TURNING LEVEL (2) : the price of this level at 27.29 , so if the price breaking this level reach a support level (1) .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : this level around 29.33 , for reach this resistance level the price need breaking a turning level (1) .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : around 30.48, for reach this level it will be breaking by open 4h or 1h candle above resistance level (1)
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : this level around 26.43, for reach this support level the price need breaking a turning level (2) .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : support level at 25.23 , for reach this level will be breaking by open 4h candle below support level (1) .
CORRECTIVE LEVEL : currently price 27.80 , have two scenario , first corrective 28.20 before dropping to touch a 27.29 , then26.43 , second corrective 27.29 to reach a 28.20, then breaking this level reach a resistance level (1).
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 29.33, 30.48 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 26.43 , 25.23 .