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XAG USD ( Silver / US Dollar)

Silver: Thoughts and AnalysisToday's focus: Silver Pattern – Breakout test. Support – 21.90, 22.84 Resistance – 23,45 23.19 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Silver on the daily chart. Looking at Silver, we see that price continues to pull back after breaking out of a triangle-based squeeze pattern. This is fine after a breakout but we want to see 22.84 hold as support for buyers. If it does, we will look for a move to retest resistance, set up a range break, and possibly confirm a new up trend. If sellers break 22.84 support, this could be a worry, and if other factors weigh in, like metals sector selling and or a firmer USD, this could lead to deeper tests to the downside. Do you think buyers can hold and set up a new push higher? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XAGUSDLong
by Eightcap
Strifor || USDCAD-21/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: In the middle of the current trading week, the publication of the Fed protocol is expected, which is highly anticipated by the entire market. Regarding the technical part, yesterday the US dollar weakened intraday, however, after yesterday's close, and also considering the current market movement, the US dollar will most likely strengthen today. So, for the USDCAD currency pair we are considering buying towards the level of 1.35500 , where the nearest resistance is located. For long, we consider two scenarios, where, nevertheless, scenario №1 has a better chance of being realized. Scenario №2 is a plan "B", in the format of re-entering this trade. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || GBPUSD-21/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The British pound pleased with its positive realization of the previous long trading idea. And even now we still maintain buy-priority. We are also considering two long scenarios, where scenario №2 has a deeper correction towards the level of 1.26000 . As you can see, we placed the target immediately below the level of 1.28000, while we are not considering a higher target, and manual closing of the transaction before the price reaches the level of 1.28000 is not ruled out. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || EURUSD-21/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: On February 20, the currency pair made a good movement towards our target of 1.09000 . We need to remind you that first of all we expect the level of 1.08500 . At the moment, scenario №1 is active, but as part of a short-term transaction, you can consider buying from current prices, using a small stop loss. A protect-order can be placed behind local (intraday) lows, and targets can be placed according to the medium-term trade at 1.08500 and 1.09000. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
3
Strifor || GOLD-21/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: For metals , there will most likely be a relative pause in movement. Thus, a balance is expected to be formed for gold , most likely after which there will be an attempt to grow above the 2040 level. In the short term and even in the longer term, longs will most likely be of greater priority. The buyer’s first task is to gain a foothold near the 2040 level, after which a fairly good prospect opens up towards the 2070-2080 area. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-20/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: Our previous trading idea of going long on the metal worked perfectly and finally, not only silver allowed us to make money on growth. At the beginning of this week we are also looking at longs, but now the entry point is a little more difficult. For ourselves, we identify two main scenarios for the development of events. Monday turned out to be very calm, so Tuesday can be said to be the first real trading day of this week. The context for growth has intensified for this metal, but, as was said, entry points have not yet been observed. Comparing with the main currency pairs, of course, there is much more growth potential against the US dollar and it is better to take a closer look at purchases there. In general, the mood for gold is positive and most likely this week the buyer will try to fix the price above the 2040 level. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-20/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The previously published scenario №1 for the pound is in progress and it is most likely that according to this scenario we will approach the target at the level of 1.27000 . However, medium-term prospects certainly allow us to consider growth above this target, namely at the level of 1.28000 . Near this level there is more serious resistance, which most likely will not be overcome on the first try. More global targets can be considered even higher than the level of 1.28000. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-20/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The buyer continues to take the initiative on the euro . At the end of the previous trading week, an excellent base was formed in the market to continue moving long; in addition, the entry point for a short-term trade is currently one of the strongest. We are considering growth towards the level of 1.08500 , and can also be considered towards the level of 1.09000. The main growth for the currency pair is expected in the first half of the week. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || NZDUSD-16/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The main competitors of the US dollar continue their recovery against the American currency and most likely this trend will continue. The accumulated volume allows currencies such as the New Zealand dollar to continue their current growth towards the nearest resistance levels. This level is 0.61500 , that is, for us this is the nearest target for growth. If we consider a longer-term picture, most likely at the level of 0.61500 we can expect a pause in the form of balance, and then, most likely, growth will continue towards 0.62500 and 0.63000 . Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
SILVER What Next? SELL! My dear subscribers, SILVER looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 23.416 pivot level. Bias - Bearish My Stop Loss - 23.717 Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 22.870 About Used Indicators: The average true range ATR plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by AnabelSignals
1
⚡️Strifor || SILVER-16/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: Silver is now showing the best growth result. We previously noted this instrument for long as part of transactions aimed at the potential weakening of the American currency. The trade has already been moved to breakeven and we are waiting for it to be processed at the level of 23.32250 . Further, in the longer term, we can count on further strengthening after the formation of a balance in the range of 22.66582 - 23.32250. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Strifor
1
Silver H1 | Potential bearish reversalSilver (XAG/USD) has just reacted off a pullback resistance and could potentially drop lower from here. Sell entry is at 22.948 which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 23.210 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 22.587 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:XAGUSDShort
by FXCM
1
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: After record levels comes chopOn the week we learnt that the UK and Japan are in a technical recession, although this meant little to markets and perhaps the bigger issue in Japan was the steady stream of pushback from key Japanese officials on recent JPY strength. US retail sales fell 0.80% in Jan, a sinister turn when both US CPI and PPI were far hotter than expected, putting us on notice that the US core PCE print (due on 29 Feb) could be above 0.4% MoM - which if seen a year ago would have been a trigger for the Fed to hike by 25bp. The Feb CPI print (due 12 March) will get huge attention, and while some way off is a key date for the diary. Among a barrage of ASX200 companies reporting, we also saw a poor Aussie employment report, which put great emphasis on the February employment report (due on 21 March) given economists (and the ABS) expect a solid snapback in hiring in this data series. The ASX200 eyes new ATHs, and key earnings from the likes of BHP, RIO, QAN and WOW this week could take us there. In markets, the USD gained for a sixth straight week, although a 0.2% week-on-week (Wow) gain was more of a stealth grind higher than an impulsive one-way tear. Assisting USD flows was a reduction in US swaps pricing, where we started the week with 113bp of cuts priced by December 2024, and finished with 91bp (or 3.6 cuts), which helped lift the US 2YR Treasury to 4.64% (+16bp on the week). If the market hadn’t already amassed a sizeable USD position, then one could argue the USD move would have been higher. The EURUSD weekly shows indecision to push the pair lower and a move above 1.0805 (last week's high) and should take the pair through 1.0828 (200-day MA) and onto 1.0865, which would be a level I’d be looking to fade longs on the week. While we saw the US500 0.4% lower on the week, we saw the prior week's low of 4918 (and the 5-week EMA) holding firm, with traders selling the VIX index above 15%. While US cash equity will be closed Monday for Presidents Day, I’m expecting choppy trade through to Thursday - so the intraday environment for day traders could get a little messy and it will pay to be nimble. The NAS100 was the underperformer last week but should attract good attention from clients this week with Nvidia’s number due out on Wednesday (after the cash close), and where the market eyes some punchy in reaction to the headlines, which could spill out into AI names more broadly. The Year of Dragon got off to a solid start for China equity outperformed, notably in the small-cap space (the CSI500 closed +10% WoW) and we see the CN50 index looking compelling for further upside, and I see 12,000 coming into play. While National Team flows and PBoC liquidity have supported China/HK equity, economics do matter, so put the China Prime rate decision and new home sales data on the radar to potentially influence this week. On the China proxy theme, Copper etched out a solid move on the week although we have seen selling interest into $3.80. Crude is also getting attention from traders, with price gaining 3.4% WoW and testing the 29 Jan pivot high. Moving in a bullish channel we see upper trend resistance into $80.50 – a level to put on the radar. Staying in the commodity theme, silver (XAGUSD) has found good buying interest off $22 and has closed above the double bottom neckline and the 200-day MA – upside into $24.00/50 looks possible. On the ag’s, cocoa and wheat come on the radar as short set-ups, while corn has seen a solid bear trend since October but indecision in Friday's price action, suggests traders are on notice for a small reversal this week. The marquee event risks for traders to navigate: Monday US cash equity and bonds are offline for Presidents Day – futures will be open but will close early. Tuesday China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate (12:20 AEDT) – The market sees the 5-year Prime rate lowered by 10bp to 4.1%, while the 1-yr rate is expected to remain at 3.45%. The Prime rate is the benchmark rate by which households can borrow from Commercial banks. We may see some disappointment in China's equity markets if the PBoC refrain from easing, which has been the trend of late. This time may be different, so conversely, a deeper-than-expected cut across both tenors may see traders adding to an early long position in the CN50 index. Wednesday Canada Jan CPI (00:30 AEDT) – The consensus is we see Canadian headline CPI coming in at 3.2% (from 3.4%) and core CPI unchanged at 3.6%. The CAD swaps market sees the first cut from the BoC occurring at either the June or July meeting. A core print above 3.6% should see good CAD inflows, while below 3.4% should interest CAD sellers. The GBPCAD (daily) setup is on the radar, where a closing break of 1.6950 would inspire short positions for 1.6800/1.6750. Australia Q4 Wage Price Index (11:30 AEDT) – the median estimate from economists is for Q4 wages to increase 0.9% QoQ & 4.1% YoY (from 4%). The AUD may see a small move on this data point, but it will naturally be dependent on the extent of the outcome vs expectations. A wage print above 4.3% would be a big surprise and get some attention from Aussie rates traders who see the first cut (from the RBA) at the August meeting. Nvidia Q424 earnings (after-market) – as noted in the Nvidia preview the options market prices a substantial -/+11% move on earnings. Naturally this sort of reaction – if it plays out - has the potential to cause big volatility in the NAS100 and US500 after the cash market close, so it is a clear event risk. Thursday FOMC meeting minutes (06:00 AEDT) – the January FOMC minutes should be a non-event given it predates last week’s stronger US CPI and PPI print. Any colour on an early end to QT may get some focus though. EU HCOB (flash) manufacturing & services PMI (20:00 AEDT) - the market looks for the EU manufacturing index to print at 47.0 (from 46.6) and services at 48.8 (from 48.4). If these median expectations prove to be correct, then we would see a slight improvement in the pace of decline, which is modestly EUR positive. Seems unlikely we see a sizeable reaction in the EUR unless we see services above 50.0. UK S&P (flash) global manufacturing & services PMI (20:30 AEDT) - the market looks for the UK manufacturing index to print at 47.5 (47.0) and services at 54.5 (from 54.3). So, a slight improvement is expected in both metrics. A service PMI print above 55 could see increased movement in the GBP and cement expectations the BoE will look to cut rates from August. GBPUSD needs a catalyst as it tracks a tight sideways range, while I hold a preference for GBPNOK lower, with GBPCAD shorts a potential trade I’m looking at. Friday S&P Global US Manufacturing & Services PMI (01:45 AEDT) – the market looks for manufacturing index to print at 50.5 (from 50.7) and services at 52.1 (from 52.5). Any reading above 50 shows expansion from the prior month, so if the consensus proves to be correct then both metrics will show expansion but at a slower pace. Hard to see a pronounced move in the USD or US equity unless we see a sizeable beat/miss. China New Home Prices (12:30 AEDT) – China’s new home prices have fallen every month since May 2023, so further falls seem likely in the January series. China equity may find sellers if we see the pace of decline increases from the December outcome of -0.45%. Any improvement in the pace of decline could be taken well by the CN50 and HK50 Index which are already seeing tailwinds courtesy of National Team buying. ECB 1 & 3-year CPI expectations (20:00 AEDT) – there is no consensus by which to price risk for the EUR, but consider the last estimate was 3.2% and 2.5% respectively. Any impact on the EUR will come from the extent of the revisions. June remains the likely forum for the ECB to start a cutting cycle. Biased long of EURJPY given the bullish momentum for 163. US Politics – The South Carolina REP Primary is held on Saturday – will this be the stage for Nikki Haley to formally exit the REP Nominee race? Marquee corporate earnings reports • US corporate earnings – Home Depot (Before-market 20 Feb), Walmart (Before-market 20 Feb), Nvidia (After-market 21 Feb) • ASX200 Corp earnings – COH (19 Feb), BHP (20 Feb), WOW (21 Feb), RIO (21 Feb), QAN (22 Feb), FMG (22 Feb) • HK Corp earnings – HSBC (21 Feb)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone