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Triangle Breakout on Silver Set a Stage for a Bullish Reversal Just as in the case of Gold (XAUSUD) analysis published previously; Silver (XAGUSD) seems to have formed a contracting triangle corrective pattern in wave 4 as indicated by the wave structure of the sideways price action in September and October and by the converging trendlines that connected the extremes of waves (a), (b), (c), (d) and (e). What is most interesting is that Elliot Wave alternation guidelines were followed correctly. Wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag and retraced 78.6% of wave 1, while wave 4 unfolded as a triangle and retraced 50% of wave 3. According to Elliot Wave Theory, triangle always precedes the final move of a sequence. And once a correction is completed, the price resumes in the direction of the major trend, which is bullish in this case. The triangle correction has set up a potential Wave 5 rally in Silver, and the projected target is 61.8 Fibonacci extension (blue area) on the chart. Price has broken the extreme of wave (d) of the triangle, so the pattern has been confirmed, and traders should be looking for buy opportunity in subsequent HL on the lower timeframe. Thanks for reading! Veejahbee.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Veejahbee
Our Silver second target will hit sooner than you thinkPrevious Update-We have taken all the profit($2000) out of the table from our silver position however keep in mind we are still heavily bearish for the precious metal sector, and we would open more short position in silver once market will present us another opportunity, Be prepared. our long term macro Report- s.docworkspace.com Existing positions: Asset: XAUUSD ( GOLD ) Buy Stop Entry Price:1520 Take Profit: 1580 Stop Loss:1490(we will reduce the stop loss points once positions will be more favorable) Risk/Reward: 1:2 (we can adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level(T.P) is reached) Asset: XAGUSD ( SILVER ) BUY Stop Entry Price:18.00 Take Profit: 19.00 Stop Loss:17.00(we will reduce the stop loss points once positions will be more favorable) Risk/Reward: 1:1 (we can adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level(T.P) is reached) At the time of publishing, this report gold is trading at $1523 per ounce and the white metal is hovering around $18.60. Gold is waiting for a new catalyst and Saudi Arabia’s response to last week’s drone strikes could reignite gold’s price higher(not significant) from the level it's currently trading at. The yellow metal is holding steady above the $1,500 an ounce level with prices rising around 1.38% on a weekly basis. The Last week began with the markets’ reaction to the September 14 strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Khurais and Abqaiq oil facilities. Washington and Riyadh blamed Iran for the attacks, with Iran denying any involvement. The big thing this week is getting some clarity on what the Saudi response is going to be to oil attacks last weekend. That is going to be a key driver for not just the oil market, but the rest of commodity prices,”. “Any sign of escalation in tensions or retaliation would be positive for the gold price. We’d expect some safe-haven buying if that was the case. The U.S. proceeded to respond on Friday by imposing a new round of sanctions on Iran, including the country’s central bank. “Iran’s brazen attack against Saudi Arabia is unacceptable,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement that announced the sanctions. What the Saudi Arabia response will be to the drone strikes last week. That is still the great unknown which could have the potential effect on gold prices however One of the little headwinds for gold is industrial data started to look a little better and we are past the bottom for the global industrial cycle. Another key driver for gold markets digesting the growing dissension within the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a level of between 1.75% and 2.0%, while sounding slightly more hawkish than anticipated by the markets. The central bank is not expecting to cut rates in 2019 or 2020 while stressing that each rate decision will be increasingly data-depended. Despite the somewhat hawkish outlook, there is a growing divide between the Fed members. Breaking down the latest Fed rate cut reveals that three regional presidents voted “no” but for different reasons. Two wanted to see no change in rates, while a third wanted an even bigger cut. Keep in mind-Markets are likely to still be disappointed by the Fed as investors’ and traders expectations are still too dovish Summary-As long as gold continues to trade above $1,500 an ounce, analysts will remain bullish however breaking below $1470-$1475 level could be a massive trigger for selling and on the upside A break above $1520-$1,530 will reinvigorate the bullish trend. We don’t see much(significant) upside. As far as we are concerned, the market is still pricing in too much Fed easing. There could be some disappointments on that front. Macro data this week could be the next major catalyst for gold. CB consumer confidence is on Tuesday. Also, we are looking at the core PCE, pending home sales, personal income, and durable goods—. “The PCE monthly figure for August is important — that will tell us how the inflation is unfolding in the U.S. Any negative prints or sub expectations will likely help gold here.” The second-quarter GDP print will also be released on Friday. Other data out this includes manufacturing PMI, house price index, and new home sales data
OANDA:XAGUSD
by GoldSilverAnalyst
Reasons Why I Won't Buy Silver NowSilver was definitely undervalued due to strong demand, supply deficits and the gold-silver ratio. In this chart, the blue moving line is the price of gold. We could obviously find that the gold-silver ratio has reached the highest level. So for long term view, buying silver is a really good choice. However, shall we buy the silver now or later? Here are couple reasons why i would like to buy silver later. 1. MACD: the macd of silver has reached overbrought area. In the recent 14 years, there were 8 times that silver's macd reached 4.81 level, and 6 of them dropped hard right after that. Now, the macd reached 4.81 level again. 2. RSI: the rsi of silver also reached overbrought area. In the recent 14 years, there were 7 times that silver's rsi reached 70 level, and 5 of them dropped hard right after that. Now, the rsi is moving above 72.2 level. 3. Short term trend is still bullish, but the strong resistance is around 17.32 to 17.57. It's also possible that silver moving like October 2010 in the next half year. But I prefer to wait a healthy correction before the next level breakout and it would be a good chance to buy low. (16.18 and 15.50 are strong supports. If silver break those supports, it may reach 14.90.)
COMEX:SI1!
by Nee_sh
Silver (XAG/USD) - Kijun Calling These are times of economic uncertainty; Brexit and the Trade War are primary factors but aren't the only ones. It is during these periods of uncertainty in which precious metals often see bullish movement . This is because, in the changing of political landscapes and the manipulations of central banks, these commodities act as a hedge against inflation and a "safe haven" for investors. Currently, we see this uncertainty feed into the current bull run for both OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold) and OANDA:XAGUSD (SIlver). First and foremost, we've bounced off of a support level around the $14.02 level which has been hit multiple times in the past. This includes a bounce from the $14.02 to $21.23 (Early January 2016 to early July 2016) after the bear run from April 2011 to January 2016. This could happen again as price bounced off this support late May 2019 and could play for resistance, but this won't happen for a number of weeks. More recently, we see different technical signals : In this OANDA:XAGUSD we look at a variety of technical factors: a) Current inverted hammer posted on the weekly chart: This was caused by furious bullish movement on the daily in which price moved at an unsustainable rate and angle which forced a retracement. This retracement fell down to the Kijun-Sen (Base Line) which is a support/resistance level but also acts as a measurement for sustainability. b) Weekly moves away from Kijun-Sen : The same unsustainable movement on the daily chart is encompassed on the weekly, only the minor retracements which helped manage the daily bullish explosion are negligible on weekly candlesticks. However, this has led to a lacking Kijun which has been flattening acting as a pull downwards on price. c) Oversold Territory : On the daily chart RSI(14) hit highs of 83-84 and on the weekly, it has hit the 78 levels. This moves in confluence with the other listed factors which could lead to a weekly retracement. However, we also see bullish divergence between the peak in 2016, and the current price where the current price is lower than that peak, but RSI is higher than it was. The divergence takes place over the 70 level which means the price will most likely continue upwards once it moves into the neutral level (30-70). These factors indicate a retracement on the weekly. The retracement should resume the trend (estimated) at around the 0.5 Fib level between support and resistance which also coincides with the weekly Base Line and ultimately act as minor support in this overall trend. This would be a drop to the $17 price point. Fundamentally: It is recommended in the Intelligent Investor to incorporate precious metals into a portfolio even if it is only 2%. Financial advisor William Berstein points out that an allocation like this is too small to hurt overall performance significantly, but when precious metals do well returns are often spectacular and cover losses from securities. This is through equity directly, ETF's , or well-diversified mutual funds. Most investors will avoid invest in the commodity directly because of insurance and storage costs.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by olympus_trading