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Some important changes in our long-term trading positionAt the moment of writing this alert our full 200% net short position in gold 0.79% , silver -0.26% and mining stocks are well justified from the risk and reward perspective. In other words, for the first time ever, we are increasing the position size to 250% of the regular position. Not much happened in the precious metals market at first sight, but this time the first look is misleading. Just because not much happened, it doesn’t mean that nothing changed. Conversely, we saw new signals that were important enough for us to change our current trading position. But it’s not something you’ll read about in the popular financial media. The thing is that the very subtle signs are visible only to those who know where to look. And financial journalists (who are not experienced analysts) generally don’t know where to look. If there is a major move in any direction, they try to find something that might have caused it and describe it in greater detail – but this is retrospective and doesn’t have significant (if any) predictive power. What does have this power are signs that have been proven to work over and over again that are confirmed by many other similarly effective signs. That’s what we saw yesterday. In the previous Alerts, we described the bearish implications coming from days when silver outperformed gold while miners underperformed it We saw it once again yesterday and the strength of this bearish signal is now very substantial. That was also the third consecutive close below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the HUI Index and this means that the breakdown is fully confirmed. This makes the outlook strongly bearish for the short- and medium term. The new and clear signal that we saw was gold’s very weak reaction to USD Index’s daily decline. The USD Index declined and it would be natural for gold to rally in this case. But it didn’t manage to form even a small rally. To be clear, there was an intraday move higher in gold, but nothing more. This move was quickly erased and ultimately – based on kitco.com’s prices – gold ended the day lower than on Friday. This is a very bearish confirmation that comes on top of multiple bearish signals and breakdowns. This means that yesterday’s session provided us with yet another very important indication of what’s to come. The clarity increased and the risk therefore declined, improving the risk to reward ratio. This is the cherry on the precious metals’ bearish analytical cake and – as crazy as this may sound – it seems to make an even greater short position justified than we had up to this point. Not much more happened and what happened was not particularly important, so we don’t have much more to add today except for the above. The conclusion-our outlook for precious metals is very bearish for the medium and long-term, we will keep you informed anyway, many regards-Neeraj Pandey Our existing positions ASSET--XAGUSD Sell Limit Price: 15.500 Take Profit: 12.80 Stop Loss: 15.700 ASSET-GOLD Sell limit Price: 1231 Take Profit: 1080 Stop Loss: 1275 ( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver -0.26% -0.19% -0.06% reaches a very important support level , while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
HUI Index meltdownAt the moment of writing this alert our full 200% net short position in gold, silver and mining stocks are well justified from the risk and reward perspective. Yesterday we wrote about the invalidation of the HUI Index below the key fib level and also discussed that really seems very insignificant from this point or may even be over. We saw a huge decline in the HUI Index where it broke below our mentioned support. The reason of Big slide which we saw in the HUI Index was mostly due to one company-New Gold as there Q2 earning report was extremely bad and bad news regarding there new river project. , We witnessed the HUI index plunged yesterday and closed below the 61.8% Fib retracement, from here the breakdown is clearly verified and the implications are very bearish. Breakdown of silver stocks-Silver stocks already verified the breakdown below the November 2016, December 2017, February 2018 and June 2018. we cannot see any strong support till 2016 low, Believe it or not, This is like a dream come true factors for our silver short position, whether it sounds crazy but that's what silver stocks chart is suggesting us, GDX confirmation and platinum breakdown-The implication is bearish as the GDX ETF verified it's breakdown below the Feb low and we think there is much more room to go lower from this point whereas platinum slide has been a mystery since it started,platinum breakdown is still not confirmed yet as on a short-term basis we saw a small reversal in the metal,at the moment of writing this alert platinum is trading around $830,The odds are that we will see the full breakdown soon and without being biased to our short position we think the implication for the less popular metal is bearish anyway The conclusion-our outlook for precious metals is very bearish for the medium and long-term, we will keep you informed anyway, many regards-Neeraj Pandey Our existing positions ASSET--XAGUSD Sell Limit Price: 15.500 Take Profit: 14.42 Stop Loss: 15.700 ASSET-GOLD Sell limit Price: 1231 Take Profit: 1142 Stop Loss: 1275 ( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver -0.19% -0.06% reaches a very important support level, while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
Big decline is coming on your way,you are just ignoring it!!!At the moment of writing this alert our full 200% net short position in gold, silver and mining stocks are well justified by the risk and reward measurement. Yesterday USD Index declined to new weekly lows in intraday terms and we saw a small rally in gold, silver and mining stocks, The HUI Index also invalidates the previous breakdown as it moved back to its 61.8% fib retracement. If you have enough experience trading PMs you can see the gold chart in terms of yen and euro which makes it quite clear what's going to happen soon. Big decline is coming on our way and it seems that the correction could already be over. Overall it seems that we are going to take the massive profit out from our short position. We are already in profit but it seems we are going to take the massive profit out from our short position. Our existing positions ASSET--XAGUSD Sell Limit Price: 15.500 Take Profit: 14.42 Stop Loss: 15.700 ASSET-GOLD Sell limit Price: 1231 Take Profit: 1142 Stop Loss: 1275 ( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver -0.84% -0.06% reaches a very important support level , while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
5
we can't help you without your supportAt the moment of writing this article our full 200% net short position in gold,silver and mining stocks is well justified from the risk and reward perspective,Before we begin our analysis we would like to do two things,first we want to say sorry as we didn't update you anything about precious metals while the number of things happened in between. personally we did close our short-term gold long@1260 and silver long before the decline continued again and after getting some profit out of the table we opened gold and silver short when gold was trading at around 1245 and closed this position at 1220,we send those analysis to our group but not here due to little engagement in our ideas by users but from now on we promise you that we will send our daily analysis here so no one will miss out these kinds of profitable trades and now the second thing is we would like you to check our analysis on gold and silver which we are attaching under this idea,That was our first idea send out for trading view where we predicted gold to fall approx 1218 when it was trading around 1350-60, same goes for silver ok now let's start-yesterday session was a tricky one where gold showed some major reversal signs while rest part of precious metals sector continued to decline, as gold is the most prominent part of precious metals sector should one trust gold's reversal? or should we go with the majority of the PM sector which suggests that nothing happened? was that a reversal for the entire PM sector? are we thinking to open long in gold and silver? the reply is clearer – no way. At least not based on what we saw yesterday. ok, let's take a look at USD index chart-https://www.tradingview.com/x/RHahFkSl we saw that USD Index rallied yesterday but before the day was even over it moved back pretty quickly below the previous highs thus giving us two invalidations of breakouts and as you know it is a bearish sign on it own, especially when the daily session is a shooting star candlestick. That’s a classic and strong bearish combination.let's try to dig more with the longer-term chart of USDX The important thing to note is that the current back and forth movement of price which we are witnessing is something very similar with what we saw in the huge rally of USD in 2014-2015 and we can expect the moves to play out in an identical manner in the future as well, On the long-term chart you can see that the USDX kept on climbing and it seems we are noticing something similar since late may. The most important thing is gold is declining even without the USD rally and it's showing a great sign that once USD rally is back, gold will plunge significantly Gold-Our previous analysis is well up-to-date there is nothing to change silver-Our previous analysis is well up-to-date there is nothing to change Gold's 2013 analogy we will not go into the details as for why we think the current situation is similar to 2012-2013 decline as we have already done this in our previous post but just to remind you In 2012 and 2013 gold was moving back and forth(we wrote the same thing that day, that was shocking of course) The action of moving back and forth changed pretty fast and gold declined form the upper part of the bow pattern to it's April's bottom,that was $200 decline in gold we witnessed in an hour or so and whether you believe it or not it can happen again, This kind of move will erase any long position standing on its path and there would be very little time to react and open a short position The conclusion-our outlook for the gold and silver is extremely bearish for the long term ASSET--XAGUSD Sell Limit Price: 15.500 Take Profit: 14.42 Stop Loss: 15.700 ASSET-GOLD Sell limit Price: 1231 Take Profit: 1142 Stop Loss: 1275
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
XAGUSD approaching resistance, potential drop! XAGUSD is approaching our first resistance at 16.83 (horizontal swing high resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) where price might potentially drop to our major support at 16.33 (horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (55,5,3) is also testing our resistance and a reaction off this level might be a good precursor for a potential drop in price. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
FX:XAGUSDShort
by Tickmill
Gold is about to crash or not?Hello guys first of all we would like you to check our previous analysis where we were predicting this outcome from two months but you were busy checking others traders charts whom solo purpose is to make there charts and analysis harder,i don't know but this makes them feel superior i think and they are right,you people also think that those traders are best whom analysis are complicated enough which you can't understand right? wrong we don't support this idealogy,if you are understanding what i am trying to show there is no point to even post that kind of ideas, ok enough talk let's come to our analysis,overall our long term bias is short in gold and silver and below we are listing the reason why 1- The USDX moved to new 2018 highs in terms of both intraday and closing prices 2-the USD is now likely to move to the next resistance or even higher 3-The next two target prices are at about 94 and 95. The former is provided by the December 2017 top and the latter is based on the October / November top 4- during yesterday’s trading, the USD didn’t move back below the previous May high. Instead, it closed a bit higher. This means that the breakout is being confirmed and that the mentioned bearish implications for PMs are getting more bearish. 5-What’s significant about gold is that the decline took place on enormous volume – the last time we saw a daily decline on volume that was even bigger, was in November 2016. That was the beginning of a powerful and sharp decline 6-The bullish factor here is the rising, long-term support line based on the December 2016 and December 2017 bottoms. It was just reached yesterday, which means that gold could show some temporary strength summary- we can expect a sharp decline in the coming days and weeks in gold,silver and mining stocks
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
we are ready are you?At the time of writing this article/idea our full net short position in gold and silver is well justified from the measurement of risk and reward,last friday session was exciting enough to let our boredom breaks as precious metals sector was almost dead for past couple of days but as expected volatility wasn't big as many investors wanted it to be but really the dam has been cracked and we are seeing several signs pointing out for upcoming breakdown,, so let's quickly jump right to our gold The yellow metal declined not sharply as we expected but it did closed the week below our rising support line,thing to note is volume was quite significant at least better than tuesday and wednesday when the breakdown happened which is one confirmation of our bearish view,that means our previous thoughts on yellow metal is still up-to date- GOLD Target-In the case of gold we can’t figure out the self similar pattern, we think that current declining in gold will be similar to the previous short term-declines,based on the apex reversal technique gold is likely to bottom next week below 1280,this is our short term target area,however we have other targets too not based on apex reversal or rising support line but on the nov 2017 low,based on that gold is likely to go down to 1240–1250 target zone,both target areas are valid even more as they are supported by fib retracement levels and on the rally of entire nov2016-jan2018 rally overall multiple signals are pointing out to much lower prices in gold , silver and mining stocks as we are seeing that movement has been started to build but it’s just a beginning big decline is just around the corner,it seems very likely that next 5–8 trading days will be highly volatile Based on the comparison to the previous declines,the two mentioned targets could be seen under the date of 15th april we are ready for the silver slide are you?-we saw the visible breakdown below our rising support line on friday and then white metal slides more to its previous lows,we encountered the same situation back in late dec 2017 where we witnessed a small breakdown below the support line but that precedes a big daily decline to the previous lows,overall we support our previous thoughts on white metal-,similar pattern in white metal is ongoing for now,triangle apex showing generating more sell signal for white metal so we could seen a decline very shortly in silver prices,so now let’s figure out how much silver can slide in near term? Based on our analysis silver is likely to slide to 15.200–15.700 before this month ends,that could be a very volatile movement There are some more valid reasons which are giving us this target area and that’s the comparison of previous decline,if the same pattern will be continue we can expect the movement of decline to be same to the size of decline by which the whole pattern has been startedhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QDALHLaW/ Gold stocks reached new 2018 low-many investors thought that friday was not the exciting session as they were expected and we agree but are they missing something? for sure on friday session breakdown below the 2018 low has been confirmed,we already saw one more close below our previous so in total we have seen second close this time,to confirm the breakdown we prefer atleast 3-4 breakdown below the significant level as this was the weekly close it is something valuable,so the implication is clearly bearish In our previous article we mentioned that gold miners could still move higher but the likelihood of under performing during upswing is somewhat greater,hence the HUI index managed to move up to 174 and then decline again,thing to note is during the upswing HUI index unable to close above 2017 low,this point is validating our bearish view even more our positions-gold entry-1330 ,stop loss-1386 1st t.p-1280 our position-silver entry-16.700 stop loss-17.440 T.p-14.630
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
2
enjoy the rideIn short our full net short position in gold,silver and mining stocks is well justified from the measurement of risk and reward at the time of writing this article/idea Are you ready for the exciting ride which is about to happen? If not then be prepare because at the end of this ride it will present us the ultimate long opportunity but before that happens we will have many opportunity to gain some short term profits and guess what we are exactly doing that with our current net short position but it looks like it's just a start due to very low volume in gold and mining stocks last several days were so boring but yesterday and today's session took it to the extreme and that's what we were expecting that's why we didn't post our article from 2 days because literally nothing has happened,we already emphasize several times that low volume in gold often precedes big decline in precious metals and that's what we are seeing right now and the implication of yesterday's extremely low volume giving a very serious bearish sign In a below chart you could clearly see that gold stocks break to new 2018 low,from daily perspective it might be not seem important but it is as it was the lowest daily close since late nov 2016 In our previous article/idea we mentioned that gold miners could still move higher but the likelihood of under performing during upswing is somewhat greater,hence the HUI index managed to move up to 174 and then decline again,thing to note is during the upswing HUI index unable to close above 2017 low,this point is validating our bearish view even more but there are other things too which is confirming our bias even more one of it is volume,check the charts below during yesterday downswing volume has been increased significantly and that's a clear sign of upcoming bearish move,In the next several days we could see slide in silver prices let's get right to silver,similar pattern in white metal is ongoing for now,triangle apex showing generating more sell signal for white metal so we could seen a decline very shortly in silver prices,so now let's figure out how much silver can slide in near term? Based on our analysis silver is likely to slide to 15.200-15.700 before this month ends,that could be a very volatile movement There are some more valid reasons which are giving us this target area and that's the comparison of previous decline,if the same pattern will be continue we can expect the movement of decline to be same to the size of decline by which the whole pattern has been started GOLD Target-In the case of gold we can't figure out the self similar pattern,so we think that current declining in gold will be similar to the previous short term-declines,based on the apex reversal technique gold is likely to bottom next week below 1280,this is our short term target area,however we have other targets too not based on apex reversal or rising support line bused on the nov 2017 low,based on that gold is likely to go down to 1240-1250 target zone,both target areas are valid even more as they are supported by fib retracement levels and on the rally of entire nov2016-jan2018 rally overall multiple signals are pointing out to much lower prices in gold,silver and mining stocks as we are seeing that movement has been started to build but it's just a beginning big decline is just around the corner,it seems very likely that next 5-8 trading days will be highly volatile and note our words-we will see new 2018 lows shortly our positions-gold entry-1230 ,stop loss-1386 1st t.p-1280 our position-silver entry-16.700 stop loss-17.440 T.p-14.630 IF the target areas were reached next week as desribed we can close all the existing position or even reverse our position if market situation will allow us, we will update you anyways many regards-neeraj pandey
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
4
GOLD IS DEAD?In short our full net short position in gold and silver is well justified from the measurement of risk and reward at the time writing this article/idea As we are seeing from the past couple of days mining stocks,gold and silver have been moving sideways and volatility have been decreased in a significant manner,many inexperienced traders gets confused at this point as they thought no significant price move is going to happen and there is no point to watch this market but reality is exactly opposite low volatility in gold often precedes huge moves in prices and we are attaching the chart below so you see it clearly,what we saw in this market (having experience of more than 6 years) that in most cases implication of low volatility meant that a huge bearish move is about to take place,we are attaching two charts below so you could be able to see that why recent low volatility should be seen as upcoming bearish movement,to watch this we have to see gold stocks to gold ratio and the gold stock to the general stock ratio,https://www.tradingview.com/x/IE2AUB3u/ if you look at both ratios you could clearly see that entire sideways movement in p.m sector is verifying the breakdown in both ratios,on a short term basis you could see the prices not moving if you will try to look at long term picture then you should be ready to see significant decline in prices ok let's quickly jumped into silver,we already have wrote in our previous articles that silver still can made a short term small upswing before it plunges back,we still support our previous idea that either silver can decline immediately or it could move little higher before quick decline continues,we can compare the analogy of late nov 2017 to current situation GOLD-our previous comment on this metal is still up-to date i would like to add few things today and that is comparison of current situation to 1st nov 2017 when gold made its final top and quickly plunges back and made its breakdown below 50 day moving average.well that session was quite interesting,those who followed our instruction made huge profit at that particular session,as we already know volatility has been decreased and gold almost did nothing yesterday,if we compare the situation to gold previous breakdown below 50day moving average the implication seems quite bearish, Adding things up-As we already wrote many times that an small upswing in white and yellow metal is still probable and in white metal that's what we are seeing right now gold miners under performance makes this point even more valid,overall it seems that the big decline is just around the corner we will update you anyway!!!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
1
Tight your seat belts In short our full net short position in gold and silver is justified from the measurement of reward and risk measurement at the time of writing this article/idea in our yesterday analysis we have cover all the precious in our idea and we told that silver daily rally was a fake one and soon it's going to plunge right away and we didn't have to wait for long to see the results,in today's article/idea we will focus more on silver But first we need to look at gold and what future holds for it,we also told you that most bearish sign is not only coming from gold,it is coming from other precious metals sector silver is confirming it more as it is outperforming gold after every decline Gold target reached-In our past idea we emphasize that gold can make significant upswing before the decline continues and our target price was 1340,we marked this level with yellow dot,why 1340? That's where the rising resistance line is our past analysis is remains up to date,gold has already fell and our net short position proved to be profitable immediately,personally we think that gold can take a big decline today close to the report of news but we are not 100 percent sure(no one can),in past there were many scenarios when precious metals soared higher close to the big announcement or news report but it felt quickly after that,so this could be the way how the big decline will start this time, But the question is will gold decline immediately or will it soar first before it fell? it's rather unclear,we could also see a rally in gold upto 1345 above the previous march high and as we saw importat bearish signs already it can decline right away overall if you will try to look at the big picture these is no doubt that gold is about to a big decline but it's probable that before it happens it can rally to our mentioned number but it will be more good for us in our group to add more in our net short position if it soar as it will give more profit from the measurement of risk and reward crystal clear sign in silver-We have written that rally in silver is like the same when it rallies on nov 2017.17 nov,that specific rally caused big decline in silver and the same happened this time,we are not trying to mix these two analogy also,there are many factors which are contributing to our bias,The analogy was accurate by the way!!! will our past analogy drive the price of silver more further?-yes very probable if gold will take a plunge today then silver will follow big decline overall we believe that both precious metals will take big plunge even if they make any small upswing in short term ,so you should be tight your seat belts to see all this while we will give you our daily analysis!!! These are long term signals as we daily update our students we can close our position in the middle and taking all the profit from the table if market is pointing out reversal Gold 1st target-1218 stop-1380 silver 1st target-14.53 stop-17.200
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
1
Silver is approaching strong support, watch for a bounceXAGUSD is approaching strong support at 16.35 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support) and a strong bounce could occur at this level to push price all the way up to our major resistance level at 16.78 once again. It’s important to note that we can see a short term descending resistance line which needs to be broken to open a bigger move up. Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 4.5% where a corresponding bounce could occur. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by Tickmill
2
patience pays off[ ]At the time of writing this article/idea our full short position is now justified in both of the precious metals gold and silver from the risk and reward measurement Not too long ago on friday we closed our net short position in both metals in our group,since then we have seen huge rally in gold and silver as expected before,we already mentioned our short term target area in yesterday post and it was expected to reach at the end of week but yesterday rally was so significant that both metals hit there target areas,before going into chart we want to emphasize you that don't try to look charts as a trading system,it's rather a tool which helps you to find good entry,stop loss and take profits that's it,there are many long term fundamental factors which helps us to add long or short position in our portfolio,ok now let's dive into charts In yesterday post we mentioned that gold could move 1340 zone before it plunges again why 1340? that's where the rising resistance line is,we argued that once it hits that zone that wlll be a strong bears signal and we will be ready to net short our position but before it plunges more in a dramatic way you can see a small upswing again in both of the metals,most important to note is yes gold market is giving strong bearish signals but more strong confirmation is coming out from other precious metals sector silver sector-until now we didn't mentioned silver sector in our idea but from now you will see silver,mining stocks as well as usd index analogy in our articles,on dec 15,2017 we have seen a similar daily rally that we saw yesterday,shortly after the rally silver plunges,bearish implication were huge,so are we going to see the same decline in silver this time? we already did but lot more to come!! not only because we are comparing this present scenario with past but because silver outperformed gold multiple times before declining,we already mentioned in our articles(not here sorry) that once silver will reach to our target area our bearish outlook will be more confirmed ok let's move into us dollar index,keep in mind thay usd index is above its very important support level so long term outlook is very bullish but before the end of week we can expect some volatilty as mario draghi speech and emloyment numbers are about to come so the question is will gold and silver will rally up again,they can but less probable as they have reached our areas of interest so outlook is very bearish now,but anyways we will update with our post if any major changes will happen in metal sector, gold-1st target-1230 stop loss-1379,entry price-1325 silver-1st target-14.730 stop loss- 17.300 entry- 16.500 if you are interested in intraday signals p.m me we will provide you it free stay tuned
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by NeerajPandey
6
XAGUSD reversing nicely, watch for a further drop!XAGUSD is reversing nicely below major resistance at 16.80 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance area, Fibonacci extension) and a strong drop could occur from here pushing price down to 16.58 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong resistance at 92% where a corresponding reaction could occur. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
FX:XAGUSDShort
by Tickmill
XAGUSD testing resistance, potential for a drop!XAGUSD is testing its resistance at 16.949 (100% Fibonacci extension , 50% Fibonacci retracement , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal swing high resistance) and could potentially fall to support area between 16.161 (L T 61.8% Fibonacci extension , 100% Fibonacci extension , swing low support) and 16.025 (61.8% Fibonacci extension , 78.6% Fibonacci retracement ). We have also identified a 2nd resistance at 17.101 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 76.4% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal pullback resistance). RSI (55, 5, 3) shows a descending resistance that price is approaching which could lead to a corresponding fall in price.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDShort
by ICmarkets
1