Xau-usd
XAU / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas.
| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |
In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the > FX:XAUUSD <
We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months.
As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below.
This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: " XAU / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES " (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels)
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
The all-time high from 2011 has been attempted to turn into support since 2020, which has been unsuccessful to date.
At this moment, we are above this all-time high, running it for a retest.
A 3-year RANGE has formed under this POI, which will serve as additional support.
We are also in a downtrend channel whose upper trend line continues to be contested.
Momentum indicators in the weekly TFs and higher are not meaningful; however, a small bearish divergence can be seen in the daily TFs.
There are a lot of support areas standing in the way of a serious sell-off, which would have to be broken through first - both scenarios can thus not be ruled out | LONG / SHORT.
Z - You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one - Z
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XAUUSD 17/9/23XU we have another clear example of a bullish swing range but overall, we know gold loves to take liquidity, so we could see the reversal from our unmitigated POI at our SWH but of course if we hit our swing low POI first then we go bullish it means most likely we are going higher.
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
✨ NEW: XAUUSD ✨ BIG PICTURE (3D/1D) ✨ COUNTER-TRENDISR @ 2030.34
RESISTANCE @ 1970
TP1 @ 1860
TP2 @ 1760 (near major support)
TP3 @ 1690 (aggressive)
TP4 @ 1580 (aggressive)
SUPPORT @ 1553.75
IBR @ 1490
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
It is important to keep in mind the current state of the US dollar. With its value decreasing, it is crucial to manage our short positions accordingly. We must be vigilant and keep a close eye on price action, as it can quickly return to the upside.
It is important to note that unless the anchor @ 1451.43 is broken, XAUUSD remains bullish. This means that we should be prepared to take advantage of any potential opportunities that arise in the market.
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Are we going to see 1800$ is gold?Hello Traders
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XAUUSD 27/8/23XU is the first of our USD correlated pairs and from this you will see a very similar markup for all of the USD related pairs.
This setup is showing you we are looking for sell moves overall, BUT this range was created by a news events (Jackson hole) so we don't want to blindly follow the bias down when we know the news event ranges often prove many traders wrong, this is exactly why we don't jump in as we would with a normal trend move.
So as it stands we are looking at a news range that tells us we want to run the sw low, we will wait for price to tap into our POI if it is willing to deliver to it, once we get to the POI we are only entering if we see a clear confirm and breakdown in our favour.
Lets keep and open mind for this as we are fully aware of the probability of this playing out fully.
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
XAUUSD 13/8/23XU here with another USD correlated setup which of course is showing us a downside bias, but of course we will stay tuned in and see where this really wants to go, overall we are a looking for shorts from to carry on lower into a new range.
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
GOLD (XAUUSD): Expecting a strong reaction from hereIn my view we're getting to the end of Gold's sell-off, testing the weekly support, testing the daily descending fall line, coming to the end of a falling wedge. We're oversold on the lower timeframes, what's not to like about this buying opportunity!
DXY is hanging on in there, with CPI tomorrow, like the news on Friday, I still don't expect DXY to break the falling resistance line, this should catapult gold.
So, I'm waiting to get in on gold for a big move up!!
XAUUSDWithin the recent trend, every time price broke a recent low, price retested a variable % of the previous high attempt. I want to see if price can test up to 50% of the previous high if the dollar grows weaker. There is also divergence on the 1 hour timeframe. I entered a few moments before the publish so excuse the long position tool.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Channel boundary test before the up?Gold, this is what I'm thinking for this week and longer term:
On the LTF (4HR) I think we'll fall at the start of the week due to:
DXY strength
Reducing momentum (MACD)
Rejection at 1963.5
Localised LHLL's
EMA7 and EMA20 crossing below EMA50
If I see a suitable entry around the current level then I'll be in, looking for a first TP around 1940 and then on to the channel around 1931.
This rising parallel channel border is major support, that 'should' carry Gold back to the ATH region of 2075.
We've hit the ATH region 3 times:
August 2020 - Pandemic
March 2022 - War
May 2023 - USD softening
The current impulse move (from Nov 2022) is looking strong with solid monthly bull candles, limited (comparatively) rejection from 2067 (May 2022), so we 'may' well get a new ATH soon - my theory being 3 failed attempts to break 2075 makes the fourth more likely to do it, especially with the frequency between attempts increasing:
August 2020 - March 2022 - 18 months
March 2022 - May 2023 - 13 months
May 2023 - > 7 months ?? (looking at my charts if it's going to happen it will be by November 2023)
If this is going to happen, I think we need to see some push down onto the ascending channel boundary to create momentum; things are getting very squeezed in the upper corner of this triangle now, a lot of upward pressure.
Fundamentally there's loads of reasons for gold to be strong:
Interest rates set to fall
USD / DXY unlikely to see highs of last year based on my other analysis
India and China hold value in Gold
Likelihood of other global disasters, war, global-warming etc
Really interested to hear your opinion on this too, what do you think?
XAUUSD 30/7/23Gold showing us that we could see some bearish movement coming this is exactly the same as what we said with the other US dollar correlated pairs that we expected to shift bearish later on in the week now whether gold will shift bearish at the same time or whether we will invalidate this various range before shifting lower overall the analysis is telling us we need to look towards this POI now as I've stated before any news ranges and news order blocks can sometimes be swept out before price gave the true move so please keep this in mind as we approach this point of interest.
XAUUSD, H4 | Potential bearish reversalPrice is testing a major resistance level which is an overlap resistance + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. There is also a descending resistance that suggests there could be bearish momentum.
A reversal from here could see prices drop to the 1902 recent swing low.
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