XAU/USD what to expect?!Despite dollar weakness, XAU/USD lacks bullish conviction on the prospect of aggressive monetary policy tightening by global central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Indeed, the US central bank will say last week that it will raise interest rates at a faster pace at its upcoming meetings to rein in rising inflation. This could continue to act as a tailwind for US bond yields and the dollar.
It's worth recalling that the rate-sensitive two-year US government bond yield rose to more than a 15-year high on Monday and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to the highest level. since April 2010. This supports the prospect of some buying on dollar declines. Aside from this, the risk boost could help keep a cap on any significant upside for non-yielding gold.
Even from a technical point of view, Friday's break below the support of a one-week trading range around the $1,654 area favors the bears. This, in turn, suggests that any further move higher could still be seen as a selling opportunity.
The data could be of little use to give a new impetus. However, XAU/USD appears to have snapped a two-day losing streak for now and remains at the mercy of dollar price dynamics. Aside from this, US bond yields and general market risk sentiment could allow traders to take advantage of short-term opportunities around gold.
If the breakout of $1,608 is not confirmed, we will return to $1,700. For now, everything points to a rise in the dollar due aggressive rises in bank interest rates.
