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GOLD/AUD

Gold analysis XAUUSD Hey guys! Below is an analysis of gold that I've decided to update from my previous posts. Points that are non-TA: - Golds looking strong with recession fears going through the roof and Trump having a constant affect on the value of gold causing a 52 week high to be reached in the last 2 days. - Expecting more trump hits which should send gold prices higher as more people run to gold to invest their money. TA points: - Gold has entered a channel for the past 3 months with a strong bullish uptrend - Gold is now well above 21 day and 50 day EMA, presenting a strong bull market - broke downwards from a previous bear flag and caused a massive breakthrough due to recession fears. - could be replicating this with another bear flag forming. If it forms this will see a pull back down to near 1480. Then a bounce off should occur. However, I feel this won't occur due to trade tensions rising more and more recently, causing gold prices to surge. Overall, very bullish market in the mid term (6-9 months)
FX:XAUUSDLong
by brendan_ellich
GOLD bearish signs - look for $1346 - 1400 to be supportThanks for viewing, Overall I remain bullish on gold and silver, however, I am looking for a pull-back to add to my position. We may be looking forward to new all time highs in USD terms (gold has recently reached new all time highs in over 70 national currencies including first world western economies; e.g. AUD, NZD, CAD, Norwegian Krone). There are strong fundamental forces pushing gold up at the moment, such as a weakening USD, lowering interest rates, equity market volatility (the NYSE has been in a bear market for the past 20 months), global growth concerns, considerable global debt concerns, and increasing geopolitical uncertainty. This is the sort of environment that gold does well in. As you can see from the chart, I am expecting a pull-back before gold continues up to between $1560 to $1746 (and possibly higher) in the next few months. As stated, I expect $1346 - 1400 to act as strong support around the 200SMA / break out as there is a minor shake-out before higher prices are set. Why do I expect a pull-back? - As a big believer and user of Elliot Wave principle, I expect a wave (4) correction before the next push. Wave (4) corrections tend towards complex corrections, and are common places to see triangles, these corrections can take some time to complete. - RSI divergence; I have labelled some areas of marked RSI divergence S, T, U, V (RSI divergence just highlights areas of declining momentum and possible turning points - as you can see, it is often quite accurate); - S shows moderately strong bullish divergence, - T, and U show strong bullish divergence, - U shows strong bearish divergence - indicating a possible upcoming area of consolidation. I am not sure if it will go as low as 1346.75 (wave (1) peak, but it may. From industry sources, gold and silver are more and more scarce and retail buyers are expecting much higher targets before considering selling. Good luck everyone
TVC:GOLDShort
by flyinkiwi10
Gold new all-time high in NZD termsThanks for viewing, After last weeks unexpectedly deep 50 basis point cut by the RBNZ the NZD has lost ground against USD www.ft.com Against a back-drop of a very bullish gold/USD price this has resulted in gold breaking its 2011 all time high. I get the feeling that the a new monetary easing policy (QE4?) is around the corner from the Fed, so we are at the start of a new easing cycle. If we are at 1% rates (this is a negative real interest rate. Inflation is 1.9% presently tradingeconomics.com) at the start of an easing cycle, then negative (nominal - not just interest rates below inflation) interest rates are a very real possibility. We may be approaching a time in New Zealand that it will be much more prudent to keep your cash in a safe, instead of paying banks to hold it for you. This happened in Japan and can happen in Australia and New Zealand as well: www.scmp.com Remember that the RBNZ holds no precious metals (bulk sold in 1960s and the balance sold in 1991) and all of its assets are foreign currency cash assets www.rbnz.govt.nz Expect all of those cash assets to reduce in real purchasing power while gold continues to climb. Protect those funds everyone.
OANDA:XAUNZD
by flyinkiwi10
Gold/AUD ready to make an assault on the December highs?Let the market force the trade, wait for a break of the current range and ride gold into the December highs. There are obviously many considerations we should assess when trading any market. But, two that stand out when trading gold, especially when it's strongly trending, are: 1) Whether gold is going up/down in other G10 currencies, and not just USDs 2) Understand which is the weakest currency over the past five-days and trade gold in that exposure Adopting these principles, we can see that in the recent bull run from November gold rallied in almost every currency, even some of the stronger EM currencies too. Granted, we are currently seeing signs of consolidation in price but is consolidation is healthy after such a strong run. The question we are fielding actively now is around when the next leg up plays out, and what FX exposure we should use as our vehicle. So, given the macro backdrop is still supportive of gold appreciation the preference is to trade gold in AUD or EUR terms, although the AUD gold (XAUAUD on MT5) chart looks interesting. On the daily, we can see price oscillating in a fairly tight range and neither the bulls or bears hold the conviction to exert their dominance. That should change early next week and should be respected, and my view is the higher probability is that we see an upside break of this range, which will force the trade. A close, therefore, through 1810 would coincide with stochastic momentum accelerating to the upside and likely promote a bullish crossover on the weekly chart too. A move into the December highs couldn’t be ruled out in this scenario. Of course, should price break to the downside and short positions would be preferred. The catalysts are indeed there for all to see, and the AUD is firmly in play. Firstly, the meeting between the US and China delegations to discuss trade could be a big driver of the AUD, with traders using the AUD to express a view on EM. Secondly, we get NAB business confidence and Aussie Q4 CPI and should these come in weaker-than-forecast then it should open the door for the RBA to turn far more dovish at the 5 February meeting. Disclaimer. Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in you losing substantially more than your initial investment. Pepperstone Group Limited is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 414530). Pepperstone Limited is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 684312). This information not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
OANDA:XAUAUDLong
by Pepperstone
3
GOLD - Bullish wedge formingWE expect US dollar to fall and the bond market to be propped up to force money into stocks and push stocks higher If gold falls --> Dollar go up --> the whole world falls in terms of fiat purchasing power --> Chaos Will they kill paper gold once and for all and make the world's fiat burn? Phenix rises? Debt has risen since 2011 why has gold and silver gone down? Fundamentals --> The market will return to fair value and the % increase in gdp to debpt should correspond with increase in gold if when paper manipulation ends / gets overwhelmed
FX:XAUUSDLong
by thefreedommatrix