Gold: The Lows are the Key; Not the HighsWe had a slight retracement today based on an algo bounce across the US indices. Despite the decent bounce across the indices around the world, Gold and Silver's losses were muted, thereby further supporting the long bullish trend I have been discussing for a long time. If today was "true bearish", we would be sitting into the 1490s.
I am expecting a movement upwards next week with a near-term target of 1540 +/- 5pts with a slight retracement before a longer and more gradual uptrend from late August to the 2nd week of September.
The ECB is expected to almost for certain ease and that will likely provide a quick jolt of about 20.00 in Gold.
The Fed is also expected to ease, however, the Fed's easing is more questionable even though I believe Powell will ease 25bps. Due to the fact that the Fed's policy is more unpredictable than ECB, I am looking at a retracement after the ECB and before (in anticipation of) the Fed. After the Fed is likely to ease however, I am expecting that pushes Gold over 1600. Therefore, my 1600 ETA date is September 17-18.
Banks around the world will begin QE (Quantitative Easing) and by no means should any rational person who understands monetary policy and geopolitics call for Gold and Silver to be bearish longer than a daily interval (for shorts). I do not focus on shorts however, because nearly everyone loses money in the long-term when shorting metallics. Gold and Silver's bull run will end when the threat of rate HIKES increases which puts us in an at-least 3-4 year overall bull cycle.
While the DXY and the metallics are somewhat disconnected now, big 3%+ daily gains will be subdued until the DXY begins to drop below 97. The DXY will begin declining when the Fed confirms the longer easing cycle which will likely be in September.
- zSplit
