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GOLD/EUR

Gold is getting comfortable above $2 000Recently, gold started to show serious signs of awakening. Just two weeks ago, it rose above $2 000, a level unseen since early March 2022. Currently, it trades near $2 027 per ounce, about 2.3% below its all-time high value. Overall, we would say that gold is performing very well against a backdrop of high inflation, monetary tightening, and worsening economic conditions in the U.S. and around the globe. However, that is no surprise to us as we previously outlined how record purchases among central banks last year paved a bullish road ahead for this precious metal. As a result, we continue to be highly bullish on gold in the long term and expect it to overtake its previous top in the coming months (if not weeks). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and two simple moving averages. At the moment, gold can be seen deviating too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, which often precedes a retracement toward these levels. That raises our caution as we might see a pullback in the price of gold (before it continues higher). Technical analysis Daily = Bullish Weekly = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
30
Gold is up more than 4% YTDSince our previous idea, gold bounced higher, breaking the $1 900 price tag. Currently, XAUUSD trades near $1 908, bringing it up more than 4% year to date. We continue to be highly bullish on this asset in the long term. However, we are still worried that stock and cryptocurrency markets are also rising tremendously; based on the information available, we believe this is yet another bear market rally (in stocks and cryptocurrencies), which will turn out to be unsustainable in the end, potentially weighing on gold later on. Therefore, we would like to remind the audience that gold’s moves up tend to be quick and large (percentage-wise), though this also applies to the occasion when gold’s price drops. At the moment, the price starts to deviate too far from its 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, making a good case for the retracement toward these moving averages (sooner or later). Therefore, we voice a word of caution and will pay close attention to the volume; to further support the bullish case, we want to see further build-up in volume, accompanying price rise. Illustration 1.01 Yesterday, gold temporarily broke above the $1900 price tag, increasing over 4% since the start of the new year. Technical analysis Daily = Very bullish Weekly = Bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels. To further support the bullish case for gold, we would like it to break above the resistance level at $1 919.98. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
7
Gold to shine in 2023?After beating Bitcoin in 2022, many investors wonder whether 2023 is the time for gold to shine. Last year, central banks accumulated 663 tonnes of physical gold in the first three quarters, making it one of the biggest buying sprees among central bankers (even with no data available for Q4 yet). Overall, the gold market experienced a relatively good year compared to the rest of the market, which saw significant declines across the board. Furthermore, the stock market's uncertainty and the prospect of a recession in 2023 helped to drive gold demand substantially higher from the preceding year (2021). As a result, we continue to be bullish on gold. However, we are worried that if the stock market starts selling again, it might put a temporary lid on the price of XAUUSD. In addition to that, large holdings by central banks give them the firepower needed to dampen price increases if necessary. Due to that, we will stay cautious and observe market developments very closely in the coming months. We will be vigilant around FOMC meetings which are planned for the following dates in 2023: January 31 - February 1 March 21 - March 22* May 2 - May 3 June 13 - June 14* July 25 - July 26 September 19 - September 20* October 31 - November 1 December 12 - December 13* (*monetary policy decision) Illustration 1.01 Interestingly, in November 2022, gold returned to the wide range that it constituted in 2021 (and stayed within for the most part of that same year). Then today, it broke above it, which is bullish. We will watch the gold’s ability to hold above the range's upper bound. If gold manages to hold above this level, it will bolster the bullish case for it. Technical analysis Daily = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly = Bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of gold’s RSI. To further support a bullish thesis, we would like to see the RSI resume a rise and break above 70 points. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
20
Gold beats SPX, NAS100, DJIA, and Bitcoin in 2022Despite seven interest rate hikes in 2022, gold is down only about 1% for the year. That shows the strong resilience of gold against a backdrop of the slowing economy, cryptocurrency bear market, and still relatively strong U.S. dollar. In fact, gold has outperformed the Standard & Poor 500 index, Nasdaq 100 index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Bitcoin. Performance (year to date) Gold (YTD) = -1.1% DJIA (YTD) = -9.8% SPX (YTD) = -20% NDX (YTD) = -32.3% Bitcoin (YTD) = -63.6% Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. Yellow arrows indicate particular FED rate hikes throughout the year. In 2022, gold has seen record demand from central banks, amounting to 663 tonnes in the first three quarters. Interestingly, buying from these institutions shows a growing trend in the first nine months of 2022. Accumulation by central banks The first quarter = 84 tonnes. The second quarter = 180 tonnes. The third quarter = 399 tonnes. However, investment demand for gold declined 47% year over year in the third quarter of 2022. Despite that, in 3Q22 retail investors continued to make bullion purchases, boosting retail demand 36% higher from the third quarter of 2021. Meanwhile, during that same time, jewelry demand returned to its pre-pandemic levels, showing growth of 10% year over year. As for our stance on gold, we continue to be bullish in the long term. Although we are worried that if the stock market selloff continues, it might put a temporary lid on the price of gold. Indeed, it might get hammered down with the rest of the market, just like on previous occasions. Therefore, we are very cautious until we see signs of decoupling between the two. Technical analysis Daily = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
8
Gold - Short paper gold, long physical metalTwo weeks after our last update, we still remain bearish on gold in the short term and expect it to hit 1 600 USD. Our view is based on a combination of fundamental factors like high-interest rates, strong U.S. dollar, and more economic tightening in the foreseeable future. Despite that, we remain bullish on gold in the long term and believe it will provide a great buying opportunity in the coming months. With that being said, we are long physical metal and short paper gold. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and the sloping resistance connecting March 2022 high and April 2022 peak. Yellow arrows indicate bullish breakouts above the resistance and subsequent invalidations. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish as well. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
22
Gold - No decoupling from the stock market yet On 20th September 2022, we stated that the Fed's pursuit of a tighter economy would continue to weigh on the gold price. After the rate hike, the price marked a new low simultaneously with the stock market. Then, the market rebounded, and in early October 2022, we said that we were growing increasingly anxious regarding the sustainability of the move. In addition to that, we pointed out a high correlation between the stock market and precious metals, which still continues to threaten gold's prosperity. Because of that, we stay bearish on gold in the short term and expect it to hit 1 600 USD, as we outlined exactly a month ago. Our views are based mainly on fundamental factors, which play into cards for the U.S. dollar, weakening gold's position. However, we also consider other macroeconomic and technical factors described in our other articles. Despite our grim short-term outlook for gold, we are very optimistic about its bright future. Indeed, we continue to wait for better prices to buy more of the physical metal while shorting paper gold. On the endnote, we voice a word of caution to investors over the upcoming FOMC meeting; we will provide more thoughts on this asset soon. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The breakout below the short-term support will bolster the bearish case in the short term. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish as well. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
26
GOLD🥇 channel breakoutHi folks! Please 1st of all click the boost 🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free. GOLD made new all-time high back in 2020 and then pulled back to 1676 which set the trading range for next year and a half. During that period there was a break of violet downtrendline which was subsequently backtested and provided support several times. Now just recently price tried to break down out of the range but the breakout failed as there was no real follow through and actually after few days GOLD bounced strongly and got back inside the range (above range low). Currently price is just trying to break the yellow downward channel in which price was "locked" from last march. IF it really breaks up, then we could see move to the upper range (2000ish) in next weeks/months. See my silver analysis which supports this gold thesis: See my Gold/Silver ratio analysis which supports this gold thesis: Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by bizmark
5
Gold - Looking for signs of decouplingTo our surprise, gold has been holding up very well after the last FED decision, which we thought would weigh on the gold market and potentially drag it toward 1600 USD. In our previous ideas, we said that we were growing increasingly anxious about gold's performance in the short-term while staying bullish in the long-term. Additionally, we stated that the current and (a potential) future weakness could bring an excellent opportunity for investors to add gold to their portfolios. Despite that, we remain somewhat cautious as the gold market has been highly correlated to the stock market. Indeed, at the moment, the stock market undergoes relief after marking new lows for the year, and gold enjoys a time of comfort with it. However, we expect the selling pressure to return in the stock market and potentially drag gold lower. However, we also consider decoupling between the stock and the gold markets over time. For that reason, we will closely monitor the price action, volume, and fundamental factors driving the market. We will update our thoughts as time progresses. Illustration 1.01 We will pay close attention to the 50-day SMA as it currently acts as the critical resistance level. If the price manages to break above it, it will be bullish; however, the failure will suggest otherwise. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD points to the upside but stays in the bearish area. DM+ and DM- performed a bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is slightly bullish. Stochastic and MACD are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame gives mixed signals. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tradersweekly
9
Gold - The FED to weigh on gold priceWe have been growing increasingly anxious about gold for the past several months. Indeed, we repeatedly reiterated our worries about the prospect of people selling their gold to cover losses elsewhere (especially in the case of the selloff in the stock market). Currently, as the odds of this action continue to increase, we also continue to maintain a bearish view of gold (in the short-term and medium-term). Our beliefs are influenced by a combination of fundamental and technical factors, which will continue to weigh on XAUUSD in the foreseeable future. Accordingly, we await gold to drift lower after the FED's decision; in particular, we are looking for 1600 USD. However, we are very optimistic about gold in the long run and think the impending selloff will provide excellent opportunities for acquiring gold (for long-term investment). Therefore, we will closely monitor the market and look for potential buying opportunities. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels for it. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
19
Gold - The market's weakness weighs on goldIn our last idea, we outlaid how we grew increasingly bearish on gold in the short term while maintaining a bullish stance in the long term. We stated that our short-term view was influenced mainly by fundamental factors, which will continue to weigh on the global economy and lead to further weakness in the stock market. Furthermore, we also said that gold would likely drop toward the 1600 USD price tag in such a scenario. Since then, gold has dropped to the vicinity of 1650 USD and confirmed our bearish worries. Because of that, we still stick to the bearish short-term narrative. Accordingly, we will pay close attention to the FED meeting, which will likely impact the price of gold and the stock market. We will update our thoughts before the meeting. Illustration 1.01 The daily chart of XAUUSD shows two simple moving averages, 20-day SMA and 50-SMA, which are in a bearish position. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows XAUUSD in the downward sloping channel. The upper bound acts as the resistance, and the lower bound acts as the support. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
39
Gold - The weak stock market threatens gold's prosperityOver the past several months, we repeated our concern about gold drifting lower with the stock market. Today, we continue to stick to this narrative and remain bearish on XAUUSD in the short term. However, we are also starting to grow increasingly bearish in the medium-term while staying resonantly bullish in the long-term. Indeed, we think the looming weakness in gold (and also the current one) will provide another excellent opportunity for investors to add gold to their portfolios. Because of that, we will pay close attention to the FED meeting between the 20th and 21st of September 2022. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates between 50 bps to 75 bps, which will inherently strengthen the U.S. dollar and weaken all other assets weighted in it. The rate hike will also pressure the U.S. economy, leading to risk aversion and a sell-off of assets. As on previous such occasions, we think this time will be no different, and gold will experience weakness as investors will cover losses elsewhere. As for the technical factors, the daily time frame improved slightly over the past few days, with volume declining. Although weekly and monthly time frames remain bearish. Due to that, we are very cautious and looking for 1 600 USD in the case of a stock market sell-off. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows indicate several technical developments. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is slightly bullish. MACD is flattening, and Stochastic points to the upside. DM+ and DM- stay bearish. Volume has declined after the period of selling, which is bullish. Overall, the daily time frame has improved over the past few days and turned slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows a strong positive correlation between the Nasdaq 100 continuous futures and gold; however, a little delay between the two can be observed. Gold is down approximately 19% from its recent peak, while Nasdaq futures are down approximately 27%. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows the current setup on XAUUSD. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
23
Gold - Choppy moves continueOver the recent months, we reiterated that gold was likely to be dragged down by the declining stock market (mainly due to profit-taking/covering losses elsewhere). We also expressed our expectations about gold declining to the 1700 USD region; this move came recently, and XAUUSD made a new low at 1 690.935 USD. Despite that, we stuck to our long-term bullish stance, which we continue to hold. Indeed, we think the weakness in gold can be exploited by accumulating gold for the long-term position. In our opinion, the inflation rate in the U.S. is currently peaking (and due to move lower in 2023). In addition to that, we think the FED will eventually reverse its monetary course and loosen economic conditions. Although, we are very cautious as the FED meeting is approaching; furthermore, if the central bank follows through with another rate hike, then it is likely to be negative for gold in the short term. Additionally, if the stock market reverses its rally, it will likely harm XAUUSD. Illustration 1.01 The price of gold deviated too far from its short-term and medium-term moving averages. Therefore, we are on the lookout for the price retracement toward its 20-day SMA. Technical analysis - daily time frame The RSI is bullish. The Stochastic points to the upside, which is bullish; however, it stays in the lower zone. The MACD strives to reverse. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame starts to show bullish signs. It also hints at the possible peak of short-term bearish conditions. Illustration 1.02 The chart shows simple support and resistance lines derived from peaks and troughs. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. The weekly time frame remains bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
8