Technical analysis update: Gold (24th January 2022)Gold continues to trade slightly above the key technical level at 1835 USD. We continue to maintain a bullish view on XAUUSD. However, we would like to voice a word of caution as there is a FOMC meeting this week which may present itself with increased volatility in precious metals. Investors will get more clues on upcoming rate hikes and economic tightening which poses threat to the general stock market and cryptocurrencies. However, in turn, we think this is a positive catalyst for the price of gold. There is a very high likelihood of capital getting out of the cryptocurrency sector which is being hammered down by a strong downtrend (and which we predicted already in November 2021). We previously noted that this would cause rotation out of cryptocurrencies into more conservative assets like precious metals. We continue to maintain this same notion even today. Our short-term price target stays at 1850 USD while our medium-term price target is 1875 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD with volume indicated by green and red bars below it. Preferably we would like to see further increase in volume which would further boost the bullish case for gold.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD and Stochastic are all bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish too. ADX continues to increase which suggests that the bullish trend has resumed. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
MACD, RSI and Stochastic are all bullish, similarly like on the daily time frame. Same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX continues to undergo reset. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Support and resistance
Neutral zone appears between 1750 USD and 1835 USD which currently act as two very important supports. Closest resistance lies at 1877.14 USD. Another resistance above that is at 1916.615 USD. Major resistance lies at 2075.282 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
GOLD/EUR
Technical analysis update: Gold (20th January 2022)Yesterday gold broke above the key technical level at 1835 USD. We previously noted that we expected this breakout to the upside and eventual resumption of the uptrend. We continue to maintain a bullish outlook on gold. Our view is supported by bullish fundamental and technical factors. We believe that persistent high inflation combined with FED putting U.S. economy to stress with hiking rates in 2022 will drive the price of gold higher. In addition to that, higher price of gold is supported by bullish technical developments across the daily and weekly time frames. However, we are cautious as we would like to see more confirmations of the uptrend. Because of that we will observe the price action very closely in the following days. Preferably, we would like to see gold holding up above the 1835 USD price tag. Though, we would not be surprised to see the price retrace back below this level before continuing higher. Additionally, we would like to see an increase in ADX which would further suggest that trend changed from neutral to bullish. We would like to change the medium-term price target of 1850 USD to short-term price target. Additionally, we would like to set a new medium-term price target for XAUUSD to 1875 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also shows the upward moving channel. Preferably, we would like to see gold move within the boundaries of this upward moving channel. Breakout to the upside from this channel would further bolster the bullish case for gold.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI continues to develop bullish structure. Same applies to MACD and Stochastic. DM+ and DM- are bullish as well. ADX contains low value which suggests that trend is neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.02
Picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also shows the rectangle pattern and series of previous bullish and bearish breakouts.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and MACD continue to increase which is bullish. Stochastic is neutral. DM+ and DM- are due to perform bullish crossover. ADX contains low value which suggests that a neutral trend is present. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Support and resistance
Immediate support/resistance lies at 1834.195 USD. Resistance 1 sits at 1877.14 USD and Support 1 lies at 1750 USD. Major resistance is at 2075.282 USD and major support is at 1676.866 USD.
Our latest idea on gold from 5th January 2022:
Here we layed out bullish case for gold and correctly predicted breakout above the resistance at 1835 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: Gold (5th January 2022)On 3rd January 2022 gold dropped to 1798.380 USD which coincides with price retracement towards its 20-day SMA. Price halted its decline slightly above this technical indicator and then reversed back up. In our view this is very bullish and odds for a bullish breakout above the neutral zone (between 1750 USD and 1835 USD) are increasingly growing. We still remain bullish on gold and await resumption of a bullish trend once breakout above 1835 USD occurs. We would like to set a short-term price for gold to 1835 USD and medium-term price target to 1850 USD.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI continues to develop a bullish structure. MACD is bullish too; indeed, it performed a bullish crossover on 27th December 2021. This strongly bolsters the bullish case for gold. Stochastic oscillates within the upper area which is bullish as well. DM+ and DM- show mixed conditions. ADX contains low value which suggests that the prevailing trend remains neutral.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also shows that volume has been increasing since 27th December 2021. In our opinion, this signals that a bullish breakout is impending.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is neutral. Stochastic is bullish and MACD is also bullish. Indeed, MACD performed bullish crossover above 0 points, similarly like on a daily time frame. DM+ and DM- are both declining and show mixed conditions. ADX has low value which further supports that prevailing trend is neutral.
Illustration 1.02
Chart above shows the weekly graph of MACD on XAUUSD. Recent crossover is clearly visible.
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance lies at 1835 USD and it acts as the upper bound of the neutral zone. Short-term support lies at 1750 USD and it acts as the lower bound of the neutral zone. Another important support lies at 1721 USD while the major support level lies at 1676 USD. Other important resistance levels are at 1916 USD, 1959 USD, and 1965 USD. Major resistance level lies at an all time high of 2075 USD.
Our most recent idea that shows possible setups on gold:
Bullish area is indicated above 1835 USD while bearish area is indicated below 1750 USD.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
What's REALLY happening with the price of Gold?When we refer to the price of gold, we most often refer to the xauusd pair and although it is a fairly accurate representation, the usd component sometimes brings distortions.
So in this analysis we will look at the price of gold vs. other currencies, in an attempt to get an overview of gold as an asset.
XauUsd:
Main Chart
As I argued in my morning analysis about Precious metals, yesterday XauUsd has broken very important 1830 resistance suggesting that the one a half years of correction can be over. For a signal that the long-term trend has resumed, we need a break above 1850 followed by a high above 1880, from there "sky's the limit" with important resistances at 1950 and the ATH at 2070. And, yes, there is a strong possibility of a new ATH in 2022 if Gold manages to pass above 1900.
XauEur:
Here we also have a clear-up trend started in 2018, followed by a correction from the beginning of Aug 2020. XauEur has found strong support at 1430, and from August 2021 is on the rise. We can also argue a double bottom in this case, with the neck-line broken in Nov 2021. This neck-line is tested as support later in November and in December and now "is looking" at 1650 resistance. Once this is broken the next stop could be 1750 ATH.
XauGbp:
Here also, Gold has found a bottom in August 2021, followed by a rise.
A break of resistance in Nov and this resistance has become a strong support
Now the price is slightly above the descending trend line and we can expect growth.
Resistances are clear on the chart at 1400, 1440, and the important one at ATH.
XauAud:
The most bullish from this series is XauAud, with the descending trend line broken in May 2021 and, more importantly, August's spike down giving here a higher low not a confirmation of support.
Now XauAud is slightly under resistance and if it breaks up it can accelerate gains above 2700 where we can see a strong resistance.
Best of luck trading Gold in 2022!
Mihai Iacob
Technical analysis update: Gold (21st December 2021)During the summer 2021 we expressed our belief that gold would end up trading within the range between 1750 USD/oz. and 1835 USD/oz. for an indefinite amount of time. We also noted that the bullish trend of higher degree was weakening and becoming neutral. Currently, gold trades slightly below 1800 USD/oz. Despite gold's sideways moving price action we continue to maintain a bullish view on gold, especially in the long-term. We expect an eventual bullish breakout from the neutral zone; and, at the same time, we assume such breakout will coincide with resumption of the bullish trend of higher degree. Additionally, we think this resumption of uptend will culminate in a new all time high for gold in 2022. Our view is supported by a combination of fundamental and technical factors.Main bullish drivers for gold are persistent high inflation in the U.S. and decrease in quantitative easing program (by the FED) which poses substantial threat to further rise in the general stock market. Additionally, we think the FED will be unable to raise interest rates three times in 2022. Instead, we expect the FED to backpedal on its current plans (as it did in its latest hiking cycle between 2015-2018).
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. It also shows 20-day Simple Moving Average (blue) and 50-day SMA (red). Many false crossovers are observable which is indicative of the neutral trend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
MACD remains in the bearish area. However, it points to the upside. We will observe it closely in the following days and we will watch out for bullish crossover above 0 points. We expect such a phenomenon to be accompanied by further rise in price. Stochastic oscillates in the upper area which is bullish but it currently points to the downside. RSI started to rise recently which is bullish. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions. Though ADX remains relatively low.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration above shows the daily chart ADX based on XAUUSD. It shows relatively low value which suggests the prevailing trend is neutral.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
MACD, RSI and Stochastic are all neutral. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions but ADX contains low value.
Support and resistance
Closest support of tremendous importance sits at 1750 USD and breakout below this price level would force us to reassess our bullish notion. Next important support lies at 1721 USD while the major support level lies at 1676 USD. Closest resistance of high importance sits at 1835 USD. Other important resistance levels are at 1916 USD, 1959 USD, and 1965 USD. Major resistance level lies at an all time high of 2075 USD.
Illustration 1.03
Picture above shows the daily graph of XAUUSD. It depicts two alternative scenarios that current gold's setup allows.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (16th December 2021)Gold responded pretty well to yesterday's FOMC meeting. It soared from as low as 1753 USD yesterday to as high as 1798 USD today. We continue to maintain a bullish view on gold as we expect the tightening cycle (with presence of high inflation) to be very bullish for gold. Additionally, we expect gold to break above the resistance level at 1835 USD. We expect this breakout to be accompanied by resumption of the uptrend that will culminate in a new all-time high for gold in 2022.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI started to grow slightly (after a long period of sideways moving action) which is bullish. Stochastic is also bullish. MACD tries to reverse its direction to the upside. DM+ and DM- are due to perform a bullish crossover in the following days. ADX remains low which suggests that the prevailing trend remains neutral.
Final note - daily time frame
Overall, no trend is present. Price remains stuck between 1750 USD and 1835 USD. We continue to await a bullish breakout above the 1835 USD price tag followed by subsequent resumption of the bullish trend.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are neutral. MACD remains in the bearish area; however, it needs to be observed closely in the following weeks as we expect it to perform a bullish crossover above 0 points. DM+ and DM- continue to show bearish condition. Though, ADX is very low which suggests no trend is present.
Final note - weekly time frame
Weekly time frame shows similar conditions as the daily time frame. No trend is present and price remains stuck between the support level at 1750 USD and the resistance level at 1835 USD.
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance sits at 1835 USD while short-term support sits at 1750 USD. Other resistance levels sit at 1877 USD, at 1916 USD, and then at 1965 USD. Another important support level can be found at 1676 USD.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (7th December 2021)Gold remains stuck in the neutral zone between 1750 USD and 1835 USD. Its trend continues to be neutral. Several fake breakouts above or below the neutral zone took place, however, a new trend failed to be established. We await the FOMC on 14th and 15th December 2021 as it will provide more insight into FED's next actions. Despite gold's neutral trend we remain bullish on gold in the long-term. Our view is supported by persistent high inflation and other fundamental as well as technical factors.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area. However, it changed its direction to the upside. MACD is bearish, although it started to show first signs of attempting to reverse its direction. RSI is neutral. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions, however, ADX suggests no trend is present. Overall, technical indicators on daily time frame suggest that no trend is prevailing in gold right now. This is reflected in its sideways moving price action.
Rectangle formation:
Rectangle area is shown in yellow background. False breakouts are indicated by white arrows and text.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
Stochastic is bearish. RSI is neutral. MACD appears near 0 points and it needs to be observed closely for potential strength to stay in the bullish area (above 0 points). DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions, however, ADX contains low value which suggests that no trend is present (which coincides with ADX on daily time frame).
Support and resistance
Short-term support is at 1750 USD while short-term resistance is at 1835 USD. Resistance 1 is at 1877 USD, Resistance 2 is at 1916 USD, and Resistance 3 is at 1959 USD. Major resistance level is at 2075 USD while the major support level lies at 1676 USD.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (23rd November 2021)Yesterday we updated our previous idea on gold in which we stated that gold became overvalued in short-term. We also warned investors about possible retracement below the breakout level at 1835 USD. Just hours after our comments gold dropped to 1802 USD per ounce. Retracement invalidated bullish breakout which took place in the recent weeks. Because of that we became neutral to bearish in our stance on gold (in short-term and medium-term). However, in long-term we remain bullish and we think any significant drop in price represents attractive opportunity to buy more gold. Though, investors should be cautious as USD continues to strengthen and FED continues its taper and interest rate narrative. We will watch out closely for next monetary meeting of the FED on 14th and 15th December 2021 as it will provide more clues on underlying issues in the market.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is very bearish. Similarly, MACD and Stochastic are also bearish. DM+ and DM- performed bearish crossover, however, ADX contains low value which suggests that trend remains neutral.
Support and resistance
Major resistance sits at all time high of 2075 USD while major support lies at 1676 USD. Short-term resistance sits at 1835 USD. Resistance 1 is at 1877 USD and Resistance 2 is at 1916 USD. Resistance 3 appears at 1959 USD. Then Support 1 sits at 1750 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (10th November 2021)Today gold broke above important resistance level at 1835 USD and reached temporary high at 1868.626 USD per ounce. Breakout above 1835 USD resistance is particularly bullish development for gold as we noted in our previous ideas. We anticipated this move for a while now; and we stated that once this resistance level was taken out, then resumption of an uptrend in gold would follow. We continue to mantain this notion and we are very bullish on gold. We will observe price action in the following days and we will look whether gold manages to stay above 1835 USD level which currently acts as short-term support.
Our short-term price target of 1850 USD was taken out. Because of that we would like to change our medium-term price target of 1875 USD to short-term price target. Similarly, we would like to change long-term price target of 1900 USD to medium-term price target.
Technical analysis - daily timeframe
RSI is very bullish. We will observe it for strength to perform crossover into overbought territory. We expect such phenomenon to be accompanied by further rise in price. MACD and Stochastic are bullish too. DM+ and DM- also started to turn bullish. However, ADX signals that trend continues to be neutral. We would like to see ADX start growing as it would confirm resumption of an uptrend in gold. Despite that we are very bullish on gold and we expect price to continue climb higher.
Gold broke out above the neckline of inverted head and shoulders pattern we showed previously:
Neckline coincided with previous resistance level at 1835 USD (which now acts as short-term support).
Technical analysis - weekly timeframe
RSI is very bullish. It still has plenty of room for growth. MACD performs bullish crossover above 0 points which is very bullish. This could coincide with resumption of an uptrend of higher degree. Stochastic is also very bullish. DM+ and DM- are due to perform bullish crossover which would further bolster bullish case for gold. ADX is very low which is aligned with daily timeframe.
Our previous idea from 8th November 2021
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (14th October 2021)Gold soared after inflation print yesterday. Today it broke above 1800 USD. Currently price is creating setup for inverted head and shoulders pattern which is very bullish development for XAUUSD. We continue to maintain bullish stance on gold and we expect eventual breakout above resistance that lies near 1840 USD pricetag. Our short-term price target of 1850 USD remains unchanged. Same applies to our medium-term price target of 1875 USD and to our long-term price target of 1900 USD.
Technical analysis
RSI, Stochastic and MACD are very bullish. Gold resumed its bullish trend as is implied by DM+ and DM-. However, trend is very weak at the moment. It is possible that gold will continue to move sideways for little longer before eventual breakout to the upside. We continue to be very bullish on gold and we expect new all time high over next 12 months.
RSI:
MACD:
Stochastic:
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance appears around 1840 USD. This is very important price level and it coincides with neckline of forming inverted head and shoulders pattern (which would be validated if neckline was penetrated). Another strong resistance lies around 1916 USD. Major resistance sits at all time high of 2075 USD. Short-term support continues to rest at 1750 USD while major support appears near 1676 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (25th October 2021)XAUUSD continues to climb higher. At the same time, the odds for validation of inverted head and shoulders pattern increasingly grow. Pattern will get validated once neckline (around 1835 USD) is penetrated to upside. This neckline currently acts as important resistance level. We expect occurence of breakout above this resistance to be accompanied by resumption of bullish trend which will take gold to new all time high. We continue to be bullish on gold and we would like to set short-term price target to 1850 USD. Our medium-term price target remains 1875 USD.
Technical analysis
MACD performed bullish crossover which strongly bolsters bullish case for gold. In addition to that RSI and Stochastic remain bullish. We expect eventual RSI crossover into overbought territory which will be accompanied by validation of inverted head and shoulders pattern (and subsequent resumption of uptrend). ADX continues to contain low value which suggests that trend is very weak.
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance appears near 1835 USD which coincides with neckline of forming inverted head and shoulders pattern. Another important resistance sits at 1916 USD. Short-term support sits at 1800 USD, while another important support level sits at 1750 USD. Major support sits at low of 1676 USD while major resistance sits at all time high of 2075 USD.
Our previous thought from 14th October 2021:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (4th October 2021)Inverted head and shoulders pattern we pointed out in the previous idea failed to be confirmed by breakout above the neckline. Thus, gold continues to be stuck between 1750 USD and 1835 USD pricetag as we correctly predicted over the summer. Trend remains neutral. But despite that we remain bullish on XAUUSD and we expect eventual resumption of uptrend. Unprecedented money printing, persisting inflation and inabillity of central banks to raise interest rates are supportive factors for higher price of gold. Our short-term price target is 1850 USD. Our medium-term price target is 1875 USD and our long-term price target is 1900 USD. Though, we are even more bullish than that and over next 12 months we expect gold to reach all time high.
Previous idea with inverted head and shoulders pattern:
Neckline failed to be penetrated and pattern became invalid as right shoulder is taking too long to form. Despite that resistance level that coincided with neckline continues to maintain its importance.
Technical analysis - daily timeframe
Trend continues to be neutral which is reflected in low value of ADX. RSI has bullish structure but MACD and Stochastic are neutral. DM+ and DM- are also neutral. We expect resumption of uptrend once resistance at 1835 USD was taken out.
Support and resistance
Short-term resistance sits at 1835 USD while short-term support sits at 1750 USD. Another important resistance sits at 1916 USD and then at 1965 USD. Major resistance lies at all time high of 2075 USD per ounce. Major support level appears at 1676 USD.
Immediate support/resistance can be drawn by line connecting high from 1st June 2021 and 3rd September 2021 which is displayed below:
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (8th November 2021)XAUUSD trades just 10 USD below its short-term resistance. We will observe gold in the following days and we will look for potential strength that could elevate price above short-term resistance. In our opinion such occurence would be very bullish development for gold. Indeed, we expect it to cause resumption of uptrend in gold. Because of that we continue to be very bullish on gold and our short-term price target is 1850 USD. Our medium-term price target is 1875 USD and long-term price target is 1900 USD.
Technical analysis
We expect price to continue climb higher as MACD, RSI and Stochastic are all very bullish. Though, ADX contains low value which suggests that trend remains neutral at the moment. Despite that we are bullish as we expect breakout above short-term resistance and eventual resumption of uptrend.
We previously showed inverted head and shoulders pattern being formed.
We later stated that pattern was taking too long to form and we abandoned it. However, resistance level at 1835 did not lose any importance. It is still valid level for breakout as it coincides with short-term resistance.
Support and resistance
Short-term resitance sits at 1835 USD while short-term support lies at 1750 USD. Next important resistance sits at 1916 USD and then major resistance appears at 2075 USD. Major support level sits at 1676 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (5th October 2021)XAUUSD currently trades above its short-term support near 1750 USD. It experienced several fake breakouts below this level, however, price retraced back above support each time. We think inability of gold to slump lower while having bearish technicals suggest that we are close to the bottom. We continue to maintain notion that gold will remain stuck between 1750 USD and 1840 USD for indefinite amount of time with occasional breakouts below and above this price zone. Overall we remain bullish on gold in long run and we expect eventual breakout above 1840 USD followed by resumption of uptrend.
Technical analysis
RSI has bullish structure but it is reversing at the moment and becoming neutral. MACD is in the bearish area and it strives to reverse into bullish direction. We will observe it closely for next two weeks and we will look for crossover into bullish zone. This would further bolster bullish case for XAUUSD. Stochastic points into bullish direction, however, it oscillates below 50 points. We would like to see further rise in Stochastic which would even more bolster bullish thesis for gold. ADX's contains value slightly below 22 points which suggests that trend is either weak or neutral. Despite mixed technical analysis we remain bullish on gold. We believe that fundamentals such as persisting high inflation and unprecedented money printing will start to drag gold higher from here.
We observe inverted head and shoulders pattern forming on daily time frame. Chart formation is depicted below.
Pattern will become valid once neckline is penetrated to the upside. We expect such phenomenon to be accompanied by resumption of bullish trend of higher degree.
Support and resistance
Short-term support sits at 1750 USD while short-term resistance appears near 1840 USD. Medium-term resistance lies at 1916 USD and major resistance sits at all time high near 2075 USD. Major support sits near 1675 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (21st September 2021)Gold rebounded from its low around 1742 USD retracing back above its support near 1750 USD. We continue to have notion that gold will remain stuck trading between 1750 USD and 1840 USD for indefinite amount of time. However, we expect eventual break out to the upside. We continue to be bullish on gold and our short term price target remains 1850 USD. Investors should be aware that tomorrow there is FED meeting and volatility in gold can emerge as meeting will be unraveling.
Technical analysis
MACD and Stochastic are bearish while RSI strives to reverse. However, RSI needs to be observed in the following days for any failure or success (regarding completion of the reversal). If reversal manages to complete then we expect price to continue march higher. ADX is growing which suggests that trend is building up strength.
Daily timeframe shows interesting setup for "Head and Shoulders" pattern:
Pattern will become valid once neckline is penetrated by price.
Support and resistance
Closest support sits around 1750 USD while closest resistance sits around 1835 USD. Another strong resistance is around 1915 USD. Then major support appears around 1680 USD and major resistance appears around 2075 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (17th September 2021)Yesterday gold dropped to its support level around 1750 USD. Previously we noted that we were getting strong notion regarding gold being stuck between 1750 USD and 1840 USD for indefinite amount of time. We maintain this notion also today. However, in the big picture we remain bullish on gold. We think that gold is going to break above its resistance around 1835 USD eventually. Though, next week investors should be cautious as volatility in gold can present itself with upcoming FED meeting. It is possible that gold will experience more selling pressure that could escalate to break out to the downside from current support level. If breakout occurs then it will force us to abandon our short term price target of 1850 USD.
Technical analysis
RSI, MACD and Stochastic are all bearish. Though, RSI needs to be observed in the following trading sessions as it is flattening. Next week we will look for potentional reversal in it. ADX is still low suggesting neutral trend. Though it shows first signs of awekening. Current closest support is around 1750 USD while major support area is around 1675 USD. Then closest resistance is around 1835 USD while major resistance currently sits around 1915 USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Gold for Quadruple WitchingPrincipal rule: Isolated corrections "a" and "c" legs should always be played. An opposing complex which we have not got into too much details here about, on the other hand, is the "b", often where our opposition is goaded into action, before being trapped and played out with momentum!
As we have seen is the case in Gold, a quick test of 1518 measured target contains a certain latent weakness, which shows up when we measure the extension from "a' and "b". We can call this dynamic weakness. When, on the forth corrective wave, the swing stands still (and can often look at rest) like with the past few weeks of chop, from which it will take a lot of compression and effort to force. I mean by this that since sellers have forced the breakdown, early buyers are forced into a decision and now left thinking it would have been easier if I had waited.
the correction complex is an instrument of attack!
It is hard to explain the why behind markets (as with most things in life) moving in waves (for those looking to dig deeper on timing cycles and etc recommend checking the work of Martin Armstrong), however experience has shown that from mapping correctly with impulses and corrections it makes it easier to hold out. Notice the positions we were loading together in 2019 and the strategic requirement for riding the impulsive leg. You should ride impulses where possible without any need for help, corrections are more of a challenge and require further monitoring as there is still the chance of our opponent occupying the whitespace. For now continue aiming for 1518 before the fifth and final impulsive leg (multi-year rally) begins in 2022.
If there is enough interest we can open up the Daily and four hourly chart tomorrow and start to zoom in to look for more positions with the expiries.
Thanks again!