XAUUSD Hello traders. There’s currently a great opportunity for a potential short setup on the XAUUSD pair. We just need a bit of patience. For that reason, this trade will be placed as a Sell Limit.
In the coming days, I expect a moderate pullback in gold. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high, which is quite notable. If the index begins to correct from these levels, we could potentially see a strong rally in gold. Of course, this is just my personal opinion based on current market dynamics.
🔍 Trade Details
✔️ Timeframe: 1-Hour (H1)
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:3.20
✔️ Trade Direction: Sell Limit
✔️ Entry Price: 3294.70
✔️ Take Profit Targets: 3245.78 / 3207.00 / 3154.00
✔️ Stop Loss: 3315.36
🕒 If momentum weakens or price consolidates in a tight range, I will keep this trade open only until 23:00 (UTC+4). After that, I’ll manually close it—whether in profit or loss—based on how price action evolves.
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’ve taken based on my personal trading system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
📌 Interested in a systematic, data-driven trading approach?
💡 Follow the page and turn on notifications to stay updated on future trade setups and advanced market insights.
Xauusd(w)
Watching Gold Tap Liquidity Before the Next DropGold is still clearly in a bearish structure on the 1 hour chart. We’ve seen a solid break of structure to the downside and price is now retracing.
What stands out is how price is pushing back up into multiple areas of interest. There’s liquidity resting just above this minor high along with a fair value gap and the underside of a bearish trendline. This cluster makes it a likely spot for sellers to step back in.
If price fills the imbalance around that FVG, it could set up the next leg lower. I’ll be watching closely for signs of rejection in this zone to see if the market is ready to continue the move down.
No reason to rush in early. Let price come to the levels that matter and confirm with a reaction. Staying patient pays.
XAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly LowXAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly Low
In mid-June 2025, demand for gold surged following reports of exchanged strikes between Israel and Iran, along with US bombings of Iran's nuclear facilities. As a so-called safe-haven asset, gold prices climbed towards $3,430.
However, by the final day of June, the XAU/USD chart shows that gold had retreated to around $3,250, marking the lowest level in a month.
Why Is the Gold Price Falling?
On one hand, this reflects easing tensions in the Middle East, as a ceasefire—albeit fragile—between Israel and Iran remains in place.
On the other hand, the risk of trade wars is also diminishing. According to media reports:
→ President Donald Trump announced last week that the United States had signed a trade agreement with China and hinted that a “very major” deal with India would follow soon.
→ The US is also close to concluding agreements with Mexico and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan and many other countries are ongoing.
Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart
Looking at the broader picture, it is worth noting that gold prices in 2025 continue to move within a long-term upward channel (shown in blue), with the following key observations:
→ The channel’s median line acted as resistance (indicated by arrow 1);
→ The line dividing the lower half of the channel in half also showed signs of resistance (indicated by arrow 2).
Now, gold is trading near the lower boundary of the channel – a key support level within the multi-month uptrend. Demand may begin to strengthen here, with long lower wicks on candles on the lower timeframes supporting this view.
A rebound from the lower boundary is possible in early July, but how strong might it be? Note that bears have taken control of the $3,345 level (which has now flipped from support to resistance), and there are signs of a triple top pattern (A-B-C) forming near the $3,430 resistance. This raises the risk of a bearish breakout from the ascending channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Market Analysis: Gold Drops — Traders Eye Macro TriggersMarket Analysis: Gold Drops — Traders Eye Macro Triggers
Gold price started a fresh decline below $3,320.
Important Takeaways for Gold Oil Price Analysis Today
- Gold price climbed higher toward the $3,400 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
- A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $3,300 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price
On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above the $3,320 resistance. The price even spiked above $3,350 before the bears appeared.
A high was formed near $3,395 before there was a fresh decline. There was a move below the $3,350 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $3,300 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.
It tested the $3,245 zone. A low is formed near $3,247 and the price is now showing bearish signs. There was a minor recovery wave toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,393 swing high to the $3,247 low.
However, the bears are active below $3,300. Immediate resistance is near $3,280. The next major resistance is near the $3,300 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $3,300.
The main resistance could be $3,320 or the 50% Fib retracement level, above which the price could test the $3,350 resistance. The next major resistance is $3,395.
An upside break above the $3,395 resistance could send Gold price toward $3,420. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,450 level.
Initial support on the downside is near the $3,245 level. The first major support is near the $3,220 level. If there is a downside break below the $3,220 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $3,200 support.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Analysis and layout of gold trend at the end of the month📰 News information:
1. Gold market liquidity at the end of the month
2. Impact of geopolitical situation
📈 Technical Analysis:
From the beginning of the decline of gold near 3338 on Friday to today's lowest point near 3244, gold has fallen by nearly $94. At present, gold has rebounded as expected. In the short term, I think we have two key areas to pay attention to. The first is the position of 3290-3295, which is a 50% rebound, and the second is the upper top range limit range of 3300-3320. Of course, if it breaks through 3280 and then retreats, it can also be long twice, but the current price rebounds, considering the position of the temporary low long position, there is not much trading opportunity. First look at the key areas given to find opportunities for shorting, and pay attention to the opportunity of retreating to 3280-3270 below.
🎯 Trading Points:
SELL 3290-3295
TP 3380-3370
SELL 3300-3310-3320
TP 3290-3280-3270
BUY 3270-3260
TP 3290-3300
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
OANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
GOLD H2 Intraday Chart update for 30 June 2025Hello Traders,
As you can see that there are some solid in the market since morning, right now market is sustains below 3300 Psychological Level and move towards 3270-75 key support zone and then at 3350
Monthly candlestick closing also due today
only if market breaks 3305 successfully today then GOLD will move towards 3335
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
Gold Loses Its Luster as Risk Appetite Takes ControlAlthough inflation in the US continues to rise, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data for May showed that the core PCE increased to 2.7%, exceeding forecasts, but the market still does not expect the Fed to cut interest rates soon.
The USD slightly decreased, bond yields remained stable, but gold prices failed to take advantage of these supporting factors. According to experts, market sentiment is leaning towards risky assets, as US stocks hit a peak and US-China trade relations have positive developments. This is the main reason for the decline in safe-haven demand for gold.
Currently, the gold market is in a tug-of-war state, waiting for stronger signals from inflation, geopolitical tensions or global economic instability to determine the next trend. If there are no major fluctuations in the near future, gold may continue to adjust in the short term, especially when the technical resistance zone has not been broken.
Personally, I see that the money flow is temporarily stopping in gold and gradually shifting to growth assets. And if there is no strong enough “push”, gold will continue to move in this short-term downtrend for a while longer.
XAUUSD Nears Key Rejection ZoneHello all dear traders!
Currently, XAUUSD is still in a clear downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows – a characteristic of a market controlled by sellers. Now the price is rebounding to an important resistance zone – which was previously a demand zone but was broken. It coincides with the EMA cluster and falls right into a technical confluence area. This is a very typical "retest" before the price continues to fall.
If you have experience, you will know: there is nothing more dangerous than buying in a downtrend, just because the price is recovering.
On the macro side, the current context is not favorable for gold: Middle East tensions have temporarily subsided, the USD is recovering slightly, US bond yields are still high, and US inflation data is showing signs of cooling down. That is: gold is losing its role as a haven and a hedge against risks – money will gradually withdraw from gold if there are no more unexpected fluctuations.
Given the convergence of these technical and fundamental factors, I am leaning strongly towards a continuation of the downside, with the possibility of a further decline towards the lower boundary of the channel. Traders should wait for a clear price reaction at the resistance zone – if they see a strong rejection signal (e.g. pinbar, engulfing candle, or exhausted volume), it is a very good opportunity to enter a position.
The rebound short-selling trend remains unchangedFrom the 4-hour analysis, the upper short-term resistance is around 3297-3301, and the pressure at 3315-3316 is paid attention to. The pressure at 3324 is focused on. In terms of operation, the rebound continues to be the main short and the trend is downward. The short-term support below is around 3250-3255. The overall main tone of high-altitude participation remains unchanged relying on this range.
DeGRAM | GOLD under the resistance area📊 Technical Analysis
● Price broke the long-standing rising-channel floor, then formed a clean bear flag inside a fresh down-sloping channel; the flag’s ceiling coincides with the 3 300-3 310 supply band.
● Lower-high sequence and confluence of flag top with former support turned resistance favour continuation toward the mid-channel / fib pivot at 3 246, next 3 180.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Friday’s hotter US core-PCE and Fed governor Bowman’s “no cuts in 2025” comment lifted 2-yr yields above 4.80 %, firming the DXY and draining flows from non-yielding gold.
✨ Summary
Sell 3 290-3 305; hold below 3 310 targets 3 246 → 3 180. Short bias void on an H4 close above 3 310.
-------------------
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XAUUSD Under Pressure: What the Market Is Telling UsGold (XAUUSD) is currently trading with a clear bearish bias, showing sustained downside momentum on the 4H timeframe 🕒. Price has been gradually stepping lower, and the structure continues to favor the sellers.
As expected for early in the week, there’s been a bit of choppy movement ⚖️, but the overall sentiment remains weak. Unless we see a strong shift or catalyst, I’ll be maintaining a bearish outlook.
🧭 I’m watching for price to revisit key resistance levels, and if we get a clean break and retest 🔄, I’ll be looking for potential short setups from areas of previous demand that flip into resistance.
🌐 Keep an eye on broader risk sentiment — if NASDAQ starts pulling back or DXY strengthens, it could fuel further downside in gold.
As always, this is not financial advice, but the detailed breakdown is available in the latest video 🎥.
XAU/USD 30 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on two separate occasions forming a double top which is a bearish reversal pattern. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
On H4 TF price has been failing to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold rebounded from oversold!Gold fell continuously on Friday, and the daily line closed in a cross. Although the previous closing was a small positive, the rebound was discontinuous and there was no strong upward movement, which means that the overall reversal has not ended and there is still room for downward adjustment. It continued to fall to the 3255 line and rebounded slightly, and then approached the 3280 mark. The support below is dense, and there is no condition for aggressive shorting. If you want to short, you still have to rebound and then short.
This week, the two key positions above 3295 and 3310 were suppressed. The monthly closing is likely to be a new low. Be cautious.
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to attempt that higher level and potentially break for higher pricing. If it didn’t the path showed the level for an opportunity to short which fell just short but worked well into the level we initially wanted.
We then published the red box targets and the bias through the week which held, and we managed to complete all bearish targets by Friday.
Was it easy? No! Did we expect that flush? No! We simply got to a stage on Friday where we could only watch or get in with the volume, so we stood back and just watched.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Simple one this week. We can see potential for lower, however, we’re too low to attempt shorting this, especially with the key level 3250-55 just below and major support. For that reason, we published the red boxes to help you all, look for the break either side! Ideally, we want to support on the low from the open and then continue with the move upside into the 3280-85 level initially, which should flip us on the support at 3270-75. We could range there as there is no news tomorrow but a gradual incline is what we’re looking for.
Support 3250-55 needs to break for lower, while resistance 3306-10 is the level that needs to break to go higher. That’s our potential range for now.
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 3250 with targets above 3278, 3285, 3297 and above that 3306
Bearish below 3250 with targets below 3240, 3232, 3220 and below that 3212
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 3275 for 3279, 3285, 3289 and 3306 in extension of the move
Break below 3260 for 3255, 3251, 3240 and 3235 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Bullish bounce off major support?XAU/USD has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,265.39
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 3,121.15
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 3,344.54
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Gold: eased on tariffs dealAs geopolitical and economic tensions are slowly settling down, the price of gold eased its road toward the higher grounds. During the previous week, gold was traded with a bearish sentiment, dropping from the level of $3.395 down to $3.262. The main causes behind the drop in the price of gold are related to decreased tensions in the Middle East, as well as, settlement of the trade tariffs deal between the U.S. and China. Although the details of this deal was not disclosed publicly, still, the market reacted positively to the news. Investors moved funds from safe-haven assets toward the equity and the crypto market, as riskier ones in a quest for higher returns.
The RSI took the down path, ending the week at the level of 41. The indicator is currently clearly on the road toward the oversold market side. The price of gold breached the MA50 line during the previous week, which was acting like a support line for the price of gold during the previous period. The MA200 continued with an uptrend, following the MA 50 line. There is a high distance between two lines, so the potential cross is still not in the store for the price of gold.
Charts are pointing that the gold is on the easing road currently, with a potential for further correction in the coming period. The RSI is indicating that the oversold market side might be reached in the coming period, which means that the price could further ease. The bottom of the current correction might be $3.180, which was the highest level in mid April this year. Still, some short reversals are quite expected on this road, in which sense, Monday might start with a short attempt for higher grounds. In this sense, the $3,3K level might be tested.
Gold Short To Medium Term OutlookGold bounced from the lower Support Zone after briefly breaching $3,270. Price is now attempting a recovery, currently trading near $3,290, but remains below both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA — confirming bearish pressure is still intact.
For bulls to gain momentum, we need to see a clean break and hold above $3,298–$3,327which would open the path toward $3,352 and possibly higher resistance levels like $3,364 and $3,383.
Until then, this move may simply be a short-term pullback within a broader downtrend. If price fails to reclaim $3,327, watch for a drop back toward $3,270, with a deeper correction targeting the $3,241–$3,211 zone.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
$3,298 • $3,327 • $3,352 • $3,364 • $3,383
Support:
$3,270 • $3,241 • $3,211 • $3,179
🧠 Fundamental Focus:
This week is packed with high-impact events — including Non-Farm Payrolls on Thursday. These could trigger sharp moves in gold, so stay cautious and manage risk wisely.
GOLD 30th JUNE - MONTH-END BULLISH OR BEARISHDue to war no update on gold, gold made bolt move downward. Slowly war has been becoming calm but no good news about it has been stopped completely. But you can see some great and correct structure in gold chart where you can find amazing entry and exit points. Gold lower was 1246 since then. Now gold is trading in bullish flag and expecting to breakout. And after breakout we can expect a big move upward.
Key point.
Support - 3248, 3272, 3289
Resistance - 3298, 3313, 3332, 3349
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golden trend linegold price peaked on intraday h1 chart on 3450 level despite shocking war news
opposite to crowd consensus price came down last two week until crowd give up buying war news
but price was falling like text book from trend line
test bounce then new lower low
(price now testing h4 support 3245)
GOLD Price Analysis: Key Insights for Next Week Trading DecisionIn this video, I break down last week’s gold price action and give you a detailed outlook for the week ahead. With gold closing around $3,260 and major macroeconomic shifts unfolding—including the Israel-Iran ceasefire talks, rising US dollar strength, and concerns over the US Q1 GDP contraction, we are at a turning point.
📉 Will weakening economic data force the Fed to pivot?
📈 Could this create a fresh bullish wave for gold?
Or will stronger job numbers and inflation data drag gold lower?
✅ What you’ll learn in this video:
✅Key fundamental drivers affecting gold (XAU/USD)
✅Important economic events to watch (Fed Chair speech, NFP, ISM)
✅My technical analysis of gold price levels to watch
✅How to read the current market sentiment like a pro
✅Strategic trading zones for bulls and bears
🔔 Don’t forget to like the video in support of this work.
Disclaimer:
Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice—always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
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Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Trading Plan for June 30, 2025
🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
On the H1 chart, we observe a double zigzag correction WXY (in red). Currently, Wave Y appears to be developing as a green abc structure.
In this abc structure:
+ Wave a started with a leading diagonal (5-wave triangle).
+ Wave b followed as a typical abc correction (in black).
+ Wave c is currently unfolding as a clear 5-wave impulsive move, characterized by sharp and rapid price action.
The key issue now is to determine whether:
+ The price has completed wave 5 (black), or
+ It has only completed wave 3 (black) within the green wave c.
If the current movement is wave 3 (black), we should expect a wave 4 correction, followed by one more leg down to complete wave 5. In this scenario, wave 5 will be confirmed if the price breaks below 3255. There are two potential target zones for wave 5:
+ Zone 1: 3247
+ Zone 2: 3224
If wave 5 has already completed, the upward move to 3283 could be wave 1 of a new bullish trend. The next pullback would be wave 2, with an expected target between 3266 – 3261.
⚡️ Momentum Analysis
D1 timeframe: Momentum is in the oversold region, suggesting a high probability of a bullish trend in the upcoming week. This supports the view that wave c (green) of wave Y (red) is nearing completion.
H4 timeframe: Momentum is turning bullish, indicating the current upward movement may continue. This adds to the uncertainty about whether wave 3 or wave 5 has ended.
🧭 Trading Plan
📍 BUY ZONE 1
Entry: 3264 – 3261
SL: 3254
TP1: 3283 | TP2: 3297 | TP3: 3315
📍 BUY ZONE 2
Entry: 3247 – 3244
SL: 3237
TP1: 3283 | TP2: 3297 | TP3: 3315
⚠️ Important Note
This trading plan assumes either wave 3 or wave 5 has completed. Therefore, if in the early Asian session, the price does not touch the 3264 – 3261 zone but instead rises above 3283 without closing above 3297, and then drops back below 3283, we should avoid buying at 3264 – 3261.
Instead, we should wait for a potential entry at the 3247 – 3244 zone.