Gold’s Next Big Move: Election Night’s Hidden Chart Signals!This is an image of the original Video tutorial i made walking through XAU/USD
Chart Analysis Summary
In both charts, we see a prominent ascending channel on a higher time frame (HTF), suggesting an overall bullish structure initially. However, there are signs of potential reversals, especially around critical levels where price fails to break higher and instead forms correctional structures. The ascending channel shown aligns with The Rule of Three, as it often precedes reversals after the third touch due to exhaustion in the trend.
Reversal Signal: Double Top with Bearish Flag
The first chart illustrates a double top pattern within the broader ascending channel, a common reversal signal. This pattern suggests a weakening bullish momentum, aligning with a probable corrective phase. Following the double top, we observe a bearish flag or descending channel, indicating that the price may continue downward after a break. This aligns with Patterns within Patterns, where a smaller bearish flag within a larger corrective structure increases the probability of a downside move.
Bull Flag Structure and Liquidity Zone Testing
The second chart labels a large bull flag on the higher time frame (4H) near a liquidity zone. The corrective phase within this flag aligns with the market psychology of retracement after an impulsive move. Multi-Touch Confirmation indicates that these structures gain credibility with multiple touches on key support/resistance lines, making the upcoming third touch a critical point for deciding the direction.
Potential Entry and Exit Scenarios
Based on Entry Types from your strategy:
High-Probability Entry: Enter on a break of the corrective structure (such as the bear flag or descending channel) following multiple touches. Place a stop loss above the recent high if you’re anticipating a downside continuation, using a reduced-risk entry if you see low-momentum candles and ascending channels close to the top.
Wait for Confirmation: Given the corrective nature, it might be safer to wait for a confirmed breakout rather than entering at the top without solid confirmation. Back-tested data often shows better results when entries are taken after the third touch or initial pullback post-breakout.
Confluence of Multi-Touch and Patterns
The multi-touch confirmation method supports the idea of a third touch before a potential breakout or breakdown. Additionally, patterns within patterns enhance reliability, as seen with ascending or descending channels within larger structures, suggesting the market’s next probable moves more accurately.
Strategy Application:
Assess the Momentum: Enter on the first pullback (flag formation) after a significant breakout if momentum is strong. For a conservative approach, watch for a third touch on the boundary of the corrective channel.
Risk Management: As part of your trading plan, place stops conservatively to avoid getting caught in corrective waves, as tight stops near liquidity zones may result in unnecessary stop-outs.
Psychological Preparation: Avoid the perfectionist trap; if the confluence signals are strong but not perfect, following the 80/20 rule may be more beneficial than waiting for ideal entries, as markets rarely align perfectly with expectations.
Xauusd(w)
THE KOG REPORT - ELECTION SPECIAL THE KOG REPORT:
This week’s KOG Report is a little different this week due to the upcoming elections. For that reason, we’re going to share the levels and potential movement since we are almost guaranteed to see some extreme movement over the coming sessions. The chart was shared in Camelot together with the analysis 4yrs ago which worked well.
On the left chart you can see the 2020 reaction to the elections giving a powerful movement across the markets and gold moving over 2000pips in days. We’ve shown this chart to make new and less experienced traders aware of what can happen based on any result! Price will whipsaw, they will chop and change direction and when they move, it will really move. IF, and it’s a BIG IF, you’re going to attempt to trade it, please make sure your lot sizes are sensible, and your risk model is flexible enough to adapt to sudden changes in direction.
Now the chart on the right. We have drawn a path, but it’s based more on a potential fractal rather than set in stone. The levels however are important, and potentially if targeted can give traders opportunities to capture the bounces or, give them a better understanding of where price can go before taking a breather. We’re close to the 2800 level but as you can see, we’ve struggled to break it, this usually just means that price has travelled enough to take a slight pause in direction, and requires a pullback, which is what we analysed and traded last week. How far thought, with extreme news and volatility entails caution, our immediate support and resistance levels hardly work in these scenarios.
So, when we look at extreme levels on the chart we can see the following:
We have resistance above on the daily at 2745 which needs a daily close above to go higher. This flips our support level into the 2715 level which looks like a decent level for price to attempt in the coming sessions. Our order region is sitting at the psychological level of 2700 with the extension of the move into the 2680-5 level. This, if attempted could give traders and opportunity to take the long back up towards the 2730-35 red box level which will have also flipped into resistance. This is the level currently in play and needs to be monitored as this is the order region they’re using to propel the price in either direction. It’s also the reason they’re accumulating here and start the pre-event range. Break above, and we should see bulls’ step in and force price higher, as shown in the illustration on the chart.
The range is big, the high in sight is the 2820-34 region, which if attacked and rejected can give us opportunities to capture the larger short trade, while the 2575-65 level is sticking out for the undercut low. To be totally honest, knowing what can happen and how price can move, it’s the same strategy as trading NFP and FOMC. Don’t trade the volume driven candles, wait for price to move, use the levels and the red boxes, and then, with a risk model in place take a sensible trade if you’re going to trade it.
The above is just our view and more for educational purposes. We will continue to use our proven red box strategy, indicators and our trusted algo Excalibur to guide us through the markets.
Good luck for the week ahead!
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bearish below 2744 with targets below 2720, 2714 and below that 2702
Bullish on break of 2744 with targets above 2792 and above that 2803
Red boxes:
Break above 2744 for 2753, 2765, 2780
Break below 2730 for 2715, 2705, 2695
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
Gold Dips After Rally: Is This the Perfect Buy Opportunity?Hello wonderful friends!
Today, gold prices are showing signs of correction after a period of strong growth, currently hovering around the support level of 2750 USD. Profit-taking pressure after the recent surge has dragged gold prices lower, but the precious metal has maintained its growth momentum for the fourth consecutive month thanks to safe-haven demand.
In Ben's view, gold may enter a consolidation phase, fluctuating between 2750 - 2716 USD before entering a tense period with the US election and the important Fed meeting. Moreover, geopolitical factors and uncertainty ahead of the election results will continue to support gold, while investors seem to be taking advantage of the opportunity to "buy on correction".
XAUUSD (GOLD): Is it bearish?!As you can see the 4H chart is Bullish.
but the 15 minutes chart is bearish and till the previous high respected we stay bearish on chart and expect the 15 min supply zone act as a resistance.
So we can expect the price has a bearish reaction to supply zone and we can enter to the sell position with 5 or 1 min. confirmation at 15 min supply zone.
XAU/USD 06 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 31 October 2024
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Gold’s rally persists, driven by the Fed’s dovish stance and heightened geopolitical tensions, strengthening its safe-haven appeal.
Price has recently printed higher highs, bringing CHoCH positioning significantly closer to current price level. A bearish CHoCH has printed, signaling the first indication, though not a confirmation, of a potential bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to continue bearish, potentially reacting at the H4 demand zone or the discount of the H4 internal 50% EQ before targeting the weak internal high.
We should however remain mindful that Daily TF is showing very early signs of bearish pullback phase initiation. Therefore, price could potentially print a bearish iBOS.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
As outlined in yesterday's intraday analysis dated 05 November 2024, I mentioned that price was expected to target the weak internal low.
Price printed to this expectation, successfully targeting the weak internal low and printing a bearish iBOS.
While price has not yet printed a bullish CHoCH, it has moved up to the premium of 50% EQ, allowing me to confirm the internal structure.
Intraday Expectation: Price is anticipated to target the weak internal low.
Note: Given the ongoing Presidential elections, the Fed’s softer stance, and heightened geopolitical tensions, price is expected to remain highly volatile.
M15 Chart:
Gold overall bearish but expected one more leg upGold has been trending upward and is now expected to retrace to form a higher low.
Short-term strategy: Focus on selling as the price pulls back.
Long-term strategy: Plan to buy at the higher low once established.
Sell highs and buy lows.
Alternatively, wait for a breakout to confirm the next move.
Manage risk by selling at, Keep the strategy simple and focused on these key levels.
Ready for the US election, GOLD still fluctuates quite modestlyOANDA:XAUUSD volatile without a clear trend, as uncertainty over the US election has fueled market expectations of a controversial outcome and possible political tensions, while investors also Close attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve this weekend during their monetary policy meeting.
The US presidential election takes place on Tuesday, with polls showing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump in a tight race for the White House.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll last month showed public fears that the US could repeat the riots that followed Trump's 2020 election loss, when hundreds of people stormed the country after he claimed that his defeat was due to fraud in Congress.
If Trump wins, I think gold will fall then rise quickly again because a Trump win will benefit the Dollar and a stronger Dollar means gold will be under direct correlation pressure. However, we will not forget that under Trump, the tariff war and his policies created a long period known as the “Trade War”, which has caused gold prices to increase ever since. up to now.
Another focus this week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday, with markets expecting a 25 basis point rate cut. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and political instability and often performs well when interest rates are low.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has reached the support level most recently noticed by readers in the previous issue at the horizontal support level of 2,725 USD.
There has been a slight recovery as of the time this article was completed, but the level of recovery is not significant as the operating amplitude is still very slow while the downward RSI has not been reached yet. level 50, level 50 is considered a support or resistance point depending on the RSI's movement conditions.
In the short term, if gold moves above 2,745 USD, the resistance point you noticed in the previous publication, it will have the conditions to continue to increase further with a target of around 2,768 USD in the short term. , more than the 2,786USD price point of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension.
In a more negative case, gold breaks below 2,725 USD, it is likely to decline further with a target of 2,709 USD in the short term more than the original price of 2,700 USD which is also the price point of the 21-day moving average EMA21. Therefore, the short-term long-term protection level should be set behind the level of 2,725 USD, in the longer-term case the long-term open position protection level should be set behind the original price level of 2,700 USD.
In the immediate future, gold still has an upward trend in the medium and long term with support for the above mentioned price increase, and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,725 – 2,709 – 2,700USD
Resistance: 2,745 – 2,768 – 2,786USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2777 - 2775⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2781
→Take Profit 1 2770
↨
→Take Profit 2 2765
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2703 - 2705⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2699
→Take Profit 1 2710
↨
→Take Profit 2 2715
GOLD is waiting for more information from the electionOANDA:XAUUSD Still waiting for more information from the US Presidential election for a medium-term trend, investors need to prepare for political tensions after polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are both tied. each other on scores. The presidential election still has a very high possibility of a controversial result, and remember that in the 2020s when Trump lost the race for the White House, there were many riots in the US. protests led to mild political tensions.
With the tight race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris for control of the U.S. Congress at stake, in the event the result is unclear or controversial, this could aggravate further political instability.
Trump has repeatedly said that any defeat can only come from widespread fraud, echoing his claims in 2020. If the margins in key states are as close as expected, there is It may take several days to know the final winner.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps on Thursday, following a sharp cut in September, while adding to US interest rate cuts this year.
Gold is considered a hedge against economic and political instability and tends to perform strongly when interest rates are low. This has helped gold gain nearly 33% this year so far.
Analyze technical prospects OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold's technical structure has not changed much. For more than 3 trading sessions, it has mainly moved sideways, because there has been no sudden impact from the fundamental factors.
Support at $2,725 helped gold recover yesterday but the RSI is still pointing down without reaching the nearest support level at 50. This shows that gold can still A little more bearish, and once the $2,725 support level is broken below it will be open to a little more downside with a target then around $2,709 – $2,700.
However, on the daily chart overall, gold still has conditions to increase with the main long-term price channel supporting the uptrend and the same with the medium-term price channel. The most notable support is the EMA21 level which is also keeping gold above it.
During the day, gold's main technical outlook is bullish with notable technical points listed as follows.
Support: 2,725 – 2,709 – 2,700USD
Resistance: 2,745 – 2,768 – 2,786USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2777 - 2775⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2781
→Take Profit 1 2770
↨
→Take Profit 2 2765
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2703 - 2705⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2699
→Take Profit 1 2710
↨
→Take Profit 2 2715
Gold Price Is About To Hit Lao Doc? Opportunity To Take Profit!Today, gold is showing signs of a potential bearish move on the technical front, highlighted by a significant crossover between the 34 EMA and the 89 EMA on the hourly chart. This crossover point, in theory, often indicates a potential trend reversal, suggesting a shift from recent bullish momentum to a potential bearish trajectory.
Technical Analysis Overview:
As illustrated on the provided chart, gold is currently trading around $2,736, with key support levels identified below. Targets for a bearish move are charted at approximately:
Target 1: Near $2,720, which aligns with recent support zones.
Target 2: Around $2,710, which provides deeper support if price falls below the first target.
Key Factors:
USD Strength: The recent strengthening of the US dollar has put downward pressure on gold prices, as investors typically view the dollar and gold as having an inverse relationship. Any further strengthening of the dollar could reinforce the bearish move for gold.
Interest Rate Expectations: Market participants are closely watching for any indications from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates typically weigh on non-yielding assets like gold, making them less attractive to investors.
Geopolitical Tensions: While geopolitical factors have supported gold prices in recent weeks, any easing of tensions could lead to reduced safe-haven demand for the metal.
Trends and Strategy:
With the recent EMA crossover signaling a potential trend reversal, traders may consider a short position with conservative targets, initially focusing on the $2,730 level. If the price breaks below this level, the next support level at $2,720 could act as a secondary target.
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GOLD?
Gold price, after reaching the top of its ascending channel, has entered a correction phase and broken its support zone. Currently, it is trading below this support level. It is expected that, after a pullback to the broken level, gold will continue its decline and may drop at least to the bottom of the specified channel.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
GOLD → The SMAs are hinting that it's about time ... News!FX:XAUUSD is forming a phase of correction, the reason for which is the change of fundamental background. The pressure from sellers is increasing, and the market is forming a key support at this time...
Disappointing NFP data was offset by hot wage inflation data. The U.S. labor market report failed to deter dollar buyers as it had limited impact on market pricing in Fed meeting expectations. Which had a negative impact on the price of gold...
All eyes are now on the US presidential election on November 5, and the outcome of the Fed meeting on Thursday. Markets believe that Trump's policy will put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, while if Harris wins, the dovish policy will continue.
Technically, traders are taking a wait-and-see approach. The price is forming a range, and most likely gold will trade inside this channel in the near term
Resistance levels: 2745, 0.5 and 0.7 Fibo, 2758
Support levels: 2731, 2724, 2713
SMAs are tending towards each other, which could be a mixed reaction from traders. Markets are prioritizing a Republican victory, in fact, this could intensify gold's correction. But the denouement of the presidential race is tomorrow! For now, the focus is on the flat boundaries!
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
1 hour XAUUSD analysisGold price chart (XauUSD) in the current 1 hour frame reveal a potential picture with key price areas as follows:
Strong support area: The area around $ 2,730 has proved the role of a "wall" of solid support, where the price many times found the thrust up. This price is creating great expectations for investors to buy, hoping to take advantage of the increase in this area.
Signs of weakness of the downtrend: Trendline reduces the green color that has been slightly broken, referring to that selling pressure shows signs of slowing down. However, in order to officially confirm the price increase signal, the chart should show that the price exceeds the next resistance threshold.
Expect the upper resistance area: If the purchasing force appears and pushes gold prices up, the first resistance levels to be observed will be $ 2,747, followed by $ 2,758 and 2,760 USD. These are the "walls" of the price that the buyer needs to conquer to strengthen the trend of short -term increase.
Potential trading strategy: Investors can consider the purchase strategy if they see clear recovery signals from the $ 2,730 support area. The goal will be the above resistance areas. But if the price does not hold this support level and decreases deeper, the short -selling strategies may be considered with the expectation of the price continued to go down.
The Best Level to short USDCAD TP +250/+500 pips🔸Hello traders, let's review the daily chart for USDCAD today. Trading
near premium prices of the multiyear range, established in 2023.
Currently risk/reward is shifting in bears favor, so it's recommended
to look for sell side setups in this market.
🔸Range highs set at 3800, premium prices overhead at 3880 3960
range lows set at 3300 and premium prices below at 3140 3240
current bid is 3885.
🔸Recommended strategy for USDCAD traders: focus on short selling any
rips/rallies near market price. price is currently trading near premium levels
and is maxed out already, limited upside. TP1 bears +250 TP2 bears +500 pips keep in mind this is a swing trade setup so naturally will take more time to complete / hit both targets. good luck traders!
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XAUUSD:5/11 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2800, support below 2716
Four-hour resistance 2800, support below 2730-16
Gold operation suggestions: Gold was flat in volatile trading yesterday. The price of Asian and European sessions was under pressure at the 2744 mark and gradually weakened. The European session fell back and stabilized at the 2732 mark and rebounded. The US session broke through the 2748 line for the second time and was under pressure and weakened. It finally closed at around 2736. The overall gold price was further under pressure at the 2750 mark and ushered in a suppressed volatile adjustment.
From the current technical level of the daily line, the upper resistance is near the 2800 integer mark, and the lower short-term support is around 2716.
With the advent of the US election risk event, the market is relatively stalemate. For the time being, it is still mainly short-term fast in and out. The upper pressure is 2750. The rebound below 2750 is still maintained during the day. Continue to pay attention to the gains and losses of 2730. The rapid rebound after the Asian session pierced proves that there is still a certain amount of bargain hunting buying below. We need to be cautious today. Note that 2730 has been tested for 6 times in a row. The support is gradually weakening. If it approaches 2730 again, it is also likely to accelerate the decline. In the face of the US election in the near future, the market volatility may be relatively fast. Investors are requested to pay attention to risk control, stay vigilant and pay close attention to the latest news changes.
BUY:2717near SL:2714
BUY:2727near SL:2724
SELL:2750near SL:2754
The strategy only provides trading directions.
Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
Gold Drops as USD and Bond Yields SoarGold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on its recent recovery. Strong demand for the U.S. dollar (USD), supported by polls showing Republican candidate Donald Trump leading in key battleground states, is putting pressure on the precious metal. Additionally, the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the increasing risk appetite are further limiting the appeal of gold, a non-yielding asset.
Looking at the 4-hour technical chart, gold is fluctuating between 2.735 and 2.739, continuing its downward trend. The 2.725-2.720 zone is expected to remain a strong support level, and if gold breaks below this range, it could quickly slide toward the 2,700 level. On the other hand, the 2.748-2.750 zone is currently the nearest resistance, preventing gold from moving higher and causing it to fall below this level.
This is my prediction. What do you all think about gold's price today?
XAUUSD Faces Resistance: Pullback or Breakout?The 4-hour chart of XAUUSD on November 6 shows gold encountering strong resistance at 2,756.216 USD/oz, with the 34 and 89 EMA lines forming a major barrier.
If the price fails to break through this level, there is a high probability of a pullback to the support zone around 2,729.381 USD/oz, potentially dropping further to 2,717.105 USD/oz if selling pressure increases.
Investors should watch the price action at these support and resistance levels for informed decisions, especially as the USD remains strong due to monetary policy factors and geopolitical risks.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,759.46
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 2,790.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 2,715.59
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Bearish breakout?XAU/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,720.15
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 2,758.32
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 2,686.32
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish drop?XAU/USD is rising towards the pivot and could drop from this level to the pullback support.
Pivot: 2,758.49
1st Support: 2,720.04
1st Resistance: 2,791.74
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XAUUSD - Stable transactions around 2750 USDOn the 1-hour chart, gold is currently trading around 2,745 USD/ounce, testing a key resistance zone (highlighted in yellow). This level has been challenging to break, indicating that selling pressure remains strong in this area.
Key Points to Note
Resistance and Support: The current resistance at 2,748 USD is proving difficult to surpass. If gold fails to break above this level, a correction down to the support zone between 2,732 - 2,728 USD is likely.
Short- and Long-term EMAs: The EMAs indicate that the bearish trend remains in place, with selling pressure still dominant in the market.
If gold fails to break through the 2,748 USD level, we could see a drop towards the support area at 2,732 USD. However, if it manages to break past this resistance, the next target on the upside would be around 2,756 USD.
Top Resistance Points in XAUUSDOur XAUUSD market analysis highlights a key sell level at 2750-2756, with an extreme sell zone around 2772-2776, where we expect significant selling pressure to develop. These levels are critical for those looking to capitalize on potential resistance in XAUUSD.
On the buy side, our support area is set at 2702-2698 , suggesting a buy opportunity if the price revisits this range. However, given today's emphasis on the sell zones, these levels may see stronger market activity. Keep an eye out for any major USD news today, as it could impact these levels.
If this analysis adds value to your trading strategy, a boost would be greatly appreciated—it’s always motivating to know my insights are valuable!