Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD – June 8, 2025🌀 Elliott Wave Structure Timeframe: H4
Currently, price action is overlapping with multiple abc correction patterns. To reduce noise and gain a clearer perspective, I’ve shifted the analysis to the H4 timeframe.
From the 3500 level down to now, the entire corrective move has been composed of overlapping abc patterns rather than sharp, impulsive rallies. This suggests we are likely forming a contracting triangle correction in the form of abcde (green) as shown on the chart.
At the moment, price appears to be in wave d (green), which is unfolding as a wxy structure (red).
Trading during triangle corrections is particularly challenging due to the complex interweaving of corrective waves. Additionally, price is consolidating within the Volume Profile’s high-liquidity zone, as shown on the chart. Therefore, it is best to remain patient and wait for the triangle pattern to complete.
📉 Momentum
Daily (D1) momentum: Currently showing signs of a bearish reversal → suggesting that price may move sideways or lower this week. (Toward the end of a triangle, price tends to compress and lose clear directional bias.)
H4 momentum: Also shows reversal signals, and a strong bearish candle has recently formed. Thus, a short-term bearish bias is preferred until H4 momentum reaches the oversold region.
🎯 Price Targets
Since the market is currently forming overlapping abc structures, setting precise wave targets is difficult. Therefore, I rely on Volume Profile zones to define key levels:
3342 Resistance Zone: Marks the boundary between high and low liquidity areas → This is a Sell Zone, supported by confluence with D1 and H4 momentum signals.
3294 Support Zone: Represents the lower boundary of high liquidity → This is the projected end of wave X (red) and serves as our Buy Zone.
🧭 Trade Plan
🔻 Sell Zone:
Entry: 3340 – 3342
SL: 3350
TP1: 3320
TP2: 3300
🔺 Buy Zone:
Entry: 3295 – 3293
SL: 3285
TP1: 3312
TP2: 3342
TP3: 3390
📌 Personal Note:
At this stage, I prefer to wait for the abcde triangle to complete or for more structural confirmation. If you decide to trade, focus on short-term setups with reduced position size to manage risk during this complex correction phase.
Xauusd(w)
XAUUSD – High-Precision Sell Setup with 1:2.70 R/RGreetings, traders.
After a brief tactical pause, we’ve identified a **high-conviction short setup** on **XAUUSD**.
Despite the U.S. Independence Day holiday, structural momentum suggests there’s still room for meaningful movement in gold during today’s session. The risk-to-reward profile on this setup is exceptional — clocking in at **1:8.70**, it meets our highest-tier execution standards.
If momentum stalls or price consolidates excessively, the trade will be manually closed by **23:00 (UTC+4)**, regardless of outcome.
🧠 Trade Parameters:
• **Timeframe:** 1-Hour (H1)
• **Direction:** Sell
• **Entry:** 3337.09
• **Take Profit:** 3312.16
• **Stop Loss:** 3345.63
• **Risk/Reward Ratio:** 1:2,70
• **Trade Management Note:** Will be closed manually by 23:00 (UTC+4) if momentum conditions are not met.
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XAUUSD LONG 7/7/25Looking to target 3,450 price level. This is based on:
1. Price has been on a range since April 22 when the high was formed, the low of the move
that formed the high was taken out. Looking to aim to taking out the high.
2. On the weekly timeframe, last week took out the low of the week before and closed bullish
within the candle of the prior week. This provides a signal for a potential sweep of the high
of that week. Minimum 3,365 price level.
XAUUSD – Clear Sideways Movement in a Narrow Price ChannelXAUUSD is moving within a parallel price channel, fluctuating between the 3,320–3,345 zone. Both the EMA 34 and EMA 89 are running flat and close together, indicating a balanced market with no strong momentum in either direction.
Recent highs and lows have formed within a narrow range, reflecting indecision from both buyers and sellers. The latest bounce also stalled at the channel resistance, lacking the strength to break out.
As long as price remains below 3,345 and above 3,320, the sideways trend is likely to continue. During this phase, a range-trading strategy is preferred – selling near the top, buying near the bottom – while waiting for a clear breakout to determine the next directional move.
XAU/USD: Today's Strategy AnalysisVerification of Support Level Effectiveness
- $3306: As the 0.5 retracement level of the 3247-3365 band Fibonacci, it rebounded slightly after being first touched today. It is necessary to monitor whether a bullish candlestick stabilization signal forms at this level. If broken, the next target is $3290.
- $3290: Overlapping with the lower Bollinger Band support of the 4-hour chart, if a pullback signal with shrinking trading volume appears here, it can be regarded as a short-term long opportunity.
Suppression Effect of Resistance Level
- $3320-$3325: The suppression zone of the 5-day moving average at the 1-hour level, which is also near the early session rebound high. If the price is resisted and closes bearish when rebounding to this range, it confirms a short entry opportunity.
-
Operation Tips
Strictly set stop-loss orders to avoid capital drawdown caused by false breakouts of support/resistance levels.
XAUUSD
buy@3285-3295
tp:3310-3320
sell@3315-3325
tp:3305-3295
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
Consolidating Below Trendline Resistance, Bearish Bias IntactTechnical Structure:
OANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade below the descending trendline TL1, having failed multiple times to breach the $3,338–$3,345 resistance zone. After retesting Support Zone 1 ($3,303–$3,310), the price is showing signs of a short-term bounce. However, the broader structure remains bearish unless the price can break above TL1.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance Zone: $3,338 – $3,345
Support Zone 1: $3,303 – $3,310
Support Zone 2: $3,260 – $3,253
Trendline: TL1 continues to act as dynamic resistance
Strategy Insight:
If TVC:GOLD gold remains below the descending TL1, bearish pressure is likely to resume. A short opportunity may arise if the price retests the resistance area and stalls. A confirmed break below Support Zone 1 would expose targets at $3,260 and $3,253.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level too ur take profit.
Entry: 3,324.16
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,344.28
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Takeprofit: 3,295.40
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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GOLD BEARS GOLD has been showing a bearish. sentiment as July candle hedges around its formation.
Note that this bearish setup is merely a monthly retracement as gold is still bullish on the long term overview .The path of this bearish pullback leads to the 3200's as we're curreently at the 3310's and if we break past 3304 zone, we go for more lower liquidity.
POI- 3304, 3280, 3260
XAUUSD H1 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 3301.42, a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fib projection.
Our take profit is set at 3330.92, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 3274.83, a swing low support.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Gold Gains Strength as the Dollar Wobbles – What’s Next?Hello, my dear friends – let’s take a fresh look at gold after yesterday’s moves!
At the moment, gold is trading steadily around 3,345 USD as the market awaits tonight’s highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. Yesterday’s ADP data caused a mild shake in sentiment, showing the first drop in private sector employment in over two years. This immediately fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve could move to cut interest rates sooner than expected — putting pressure on the U.S. dollar and offering support to gold as a non-yielding safe haven.
Meanwhile, the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) has slipped to its lowest level in nearly three years, making dollar-denominated assets like gold more attractive to international investors. On top of that, lingering geopolitical tensions and ongoing strong central bank buying continue to reinforce gold’s role as a long-term store of value.
From a technical perspective on the H4 timeframe, gold is showing a very tight structure after breaking out of a prolonged downtrend channel. Price is currently consolidating between 3,330 and 3,360 USD, with a clearly defined bullish formation: higher highs and higher lows — a strong signal that the uptrend is starting to take shape again.
The key level to watch now is 3,358 USD. If price breaks above this level with convincing buying momentum, I expect gold to enter a new bullish leg toward 3,390 – 3,407 USD, aligning with the Fibonacci 1.618 extension — often a magnet for price during strong trends. On the other hand, if there’s a short-term pullback, the support zone around 3,327 – 3,318 USD will be critical, offering a potential re-entry point for buyers looking to ride the next wave up.
This is not a phase for impulsive decisions — but it’s definitely not a moment to be passive either. The breakout could come fast, and only prepared traders will be ready to act.
TRADING KNOWLEDGE – MOVING AVERAGE (MA)The Moving Average (MA) is a popular technical indicator that helps smooth out price data to better identify market trends. MA doesn't predict the future but helps traders clearly see the current direction of the market.
🔍 2 Main Types of MA:
🔔 SMA (Simple Moving Average): The average of closing prices over a set period (e.g., SMA 20 = average of the last 20 candles).
🔔 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Similar to SMA but gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to market changes.
📈 What is MA used for?
📍Trend Identification:
💡Upward sloping MA → Uptrend
💡Downward sloping MA → Downtrend
📍Trading Signals:
💡Price crossing above MA → Buy signal
💡Price crossing below MA → Sell signal
📍Combining Two MAs (Short & Long Term):
💡Short MA crosses above long MA → Buy signal (Golden Cross)
💡Short MA crosses below long MA → Sell signal (Death Cross)
GOLD Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD is weaker than we
Expected and failed to break
The key horizontal level
Around 3360$ and we are
Now seeing a bearish rejection
So we are locally bearish biased
And we will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
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GOLD CONFIRM TRADE🔍 Chart Analysis Summary:
Current Price: ~3,336
Key Resistance (Supply Zone): 3,340 – 3,353
Major Resistance Above: 3,388 – 3,395
Key Support (Demand Zone): 3,320 – 3,330
Major Support Below: 3,294 – 3,305
⚔️ Trade Setup Ideas:
📉 Sell Setup (High Probability Intraday Short)
Scenario: Price is near the lower supply zone (3,340–3,353), showing rejection.
Entry: 3,340 – 3,345 (on bearish candle confirmation or rejection wick)
Stop Loss: Above 3,353 (zone high or recent swing high)
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 3,330 (first minor support)
TP2: 3,320 (demand zone)
TP3: 3,295 (major support)
📌 Confirmation Tips:
Look for bearish engulfing / rejection candles
RSI divergence or weakness
Break of 3,330 support confirms continuation
📈 Buy Setup (If Price Drops to Demand)
Scenario: Price drops back into demand zone 3,320–3,330 with bullish reaction.
Entry: 3,322 – 3,328 (bullish wick or engulfing candle)
Stop Loss: Below 3,320
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 3,340
TP2: 3,353 (supply)
TP3: 3,388 (major resistance)
📌 Confirmation Tips:
Bullish price action near 3,322 zone
Momentum buildup from demand
Use M15/M30 for refined entry
Gold (XAUUSD): Potential Short from Bearish OPotential Short Opportunity After Reaction at OB-
The chart shows a potential short setup on Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar. Price has recently moved upwards, labeled as swing "1", and is approaching a bearish order block (OB-) identified in the $3,344 - $3,353 area.
We could see a reaction at this OB- level, leading to a downward move as indicated by the arrow. The next potential target for this downward move could be the Point of Interest (POI) which aligns with a bullish order block (OB+) around the $3,283 - $3,288 zone.
Alternatively, if price pushes through the initial OB-, the next bearish OB- around $3,375 - $3,385 could act as further resistance, potentially leading to a reversal as shown by swing "2".
Traders could look for confirmation signals around these OB- levels to initiate short positions, targeting the POI OB+ as a primary target. A break below the POI OB+ could open the way for further downside.
Consider price action and volume at the highlighted zones for better entry and exit decisions.
Looking for catalysts - Gold Outlook July 7 - July 11, 2025All about last week you can find here:
FX_IDC:XAUUSD Gold is currently seeking fresh catalysts this week. 🧐
While the economic calendar appears light for this time of year, a lack of economic data doesn't mean nothing is happening. Geopolitical events, especially tariff wars or other flashpoints, remain significant. Are there increasing signs for peace in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas? 🕊️
This week Gold could take advantage from an exisiting reversal head and shoulders pattern and painting pitchfork in the chart shows possibillities for Upside targeting $3400.
## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰
Israel / Iran ⚔️🛑☢️
After fierce clashes in June, a **ceasefire** began June 24. 🇮🇷 Iran's Supreme Leader reappeared July 6, claiming victory 🎤. Tehran has now **banned IAEA inspectors** ❌🔍. Over 900 Iranians reportedly killed ⚰️.
🔮 Outlook: ⚠️ Nuclear tensions growing, diplomacy frozen 🧊. Regional powers remain on high alert 🚨.
India / Pakistan 🗻🔫🕌
Tense calm in Kashmir 😐. India launched its sacred **Amarnath Yatra** 🕉️ under heavy security 🛡️. Pakistan killed 30 militants near the Afghan border ⚔️, while China 🐉 admitted sharing intel 📡.
🔮 Outlook: Diplomatic track stays open 🕊️, but **border flare-ups** and water disputes 💧 remain volatile 🔥.
Gaza Conflict 💣🏘️🕊️
Israel launched deadly airstrikes ✈️, including one on a beach café ☕🏖️ killing 22. Dozens more died 💔. IDF admitted accidental strikes on aid sites 🚚❌. U.S.-led talks seek a **60-day truce** 🤝.
🔮 Outlook: Ceasefire possible 🛑, but **humanitarian crisis** worsening 🚨🩺. Trust remains fragile 💔.
Russia / Ukraine ⚔️
Zelenskyy 🇺🇦 and Trump 📞 discussed new air defense aid 🎯. Russia answered with **massive drone strikes** on Kyiv 🚁🔥. NATO boosts arms shipments 🔫 and backs Ukraine’s domestic weapons production 🏭.
🔮 Outlook: War grinds on ⚙️. No peace in sight, with **global stakes** rising 📈.
U.S. / China Trade War 💼📦🔥
With new tariffs looming 📆💣, Treasury said “multiple deals” are near 🤝. Trump claimed a **partial deal with China** 🐉, though tariffs remain high 📊.
🔮 Outlook: More piecemeal deals 🍰, but a **full-scale trade reset** looks unlikely before elections 🗳️.
🌍 Global Trade War 📉🚢💸
Trump’s shifting tariffs 🎯 hurt global growth 🌐. Markets hit record highs 📈 but investment chills ❄️. The 💵 dollar had its sharpest 6-month drop 📉 in decades.
🔮 Outlook: Businesses remain cautious ⚠️. **Supply chains** reroute 🔄. No global rebound without clarity 🔍.
Trump vs. Powell 💥🏛️📉
Trump demanded Powell’s resignation ❌📉, accusing him of weak rate policy 📊. Powell held firm 🧊, citing inflation risks 📈. Trump eyes replacements 👀🪑.
🔮 Outlook: Fed independence 🏛️ under fire 🔥. **Rate policy** may get politicized ahead of 2025 elections 🗳️.
📈 U.S. Inflation 🛒💰🧾
Inflation slowed to 0.1% 🐢, but tariffs raised prices on appliances 🔌 (+4.3%) and toys 🧸. Fed projects 3% inflation by year-end 📊.
🔮 Outlook: As **tariffs bite** 🦷, inflation likely to climb 📈. Fed stays cautious 🧐 on cuts.
Technical View 📐📈
Analysis Period: May 25 - June 6, 2025 | Forecast: June 7-11, 2025
1. ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Methodology Analysis 🧠
Market Structure
Higher Timeframe Bias: The chart shows a clear bullish market structure with higher highs and higher lows from the major low around 3,250. 🐂
Current Structure: Price is in a consolidation phase after reaching highs near 3,370, showing potential distribution. ⚖️
Key ICT Concepts Identified:
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Multiple gaps visible during the strong rally from 3,250 to 3,370. 💨
Order Blocks: Significant demand zone around 3,250-3,260 level (major accumulation area). 📦
Liquidity Zones:
Buy-side liquidity above 3,370 (recent highs). 💸
Sell-side liquidity below 3,320 (recent consolidation lows). 📉
Market Maker Models: Classic accumulation-manipulation-distribution pattern visible. 🔄
Session Analysis:
London Session: Shows strong directional moves. 🇬🇧
New York Session: Continuation of trends with increased volatility. 🗽
Asian Session: Consolidation and range-bound behavior. 🌏
2. Gann Analysis 🧙♂️
Gann Angles & Time Cycles:
Primary Trend: 1x1 angle supporting the bullish move from 3,250. ↗️
Resistance Angles: 2x1 and 3x1 angles providing resistance around current levels. 🚧
Time Cycles:
7-day cycle showing completion around June 2-3. 🗓️
14-day cycle suggesting potential reversal window June 7-9. ⏳
Gann Price Levels:
Major Support: 3,250 (1/8 level). 🛡️
Current Resistance: 3,370 (7/8 level). 🛑
Next Target: 3,400 (full octave completion). 🎯
Geometric Relationships:
Price squared relationship suggests 3,380-3,400 as natural resistance. 📐
Time-price balance indicates consolidation period before next major move. 🕰️⚖️
3. Fibonacci Analysis ✨
Retracement Levels (from 3,250 low to 3,370 high):
23.6%: 3,341.6
38.2%: 3,324.2
50.0%: 3,310.0
61.8%: 3,295.8
78.6%: 3,265.6
Extension Levels:
127.2%: 3,402.6
161.8%: 3,444.2
200.0%: 3,490.0
Current Analysis:
Price has respected the 23.6% retracement level multiple times. ✅
Strong support confluence at 38.2% level (3,324). 💪
Extension targets suggest potential move to 3,402-3,444 range. 🚀
4. Institutional Levels Analysis 🏦
Psychological Levels:
3,300: Major round number providing support. 💯
3,350: Mid-level resistance. 📊
3,400: Next major psychological target. 🎯
Institutional Order Flow:
Accumulation Zone: 3,250-3,280 (heavy institutional buying). 💰
Distribution Zone: 3,350-3,370 (profit-taking area). 💸
Breakout Target: 3,400+ (next institutional objective). ⬆️
Volume Analysis:
High volume on the initial move up from 3,250. 📈
Decreasing volume during consolidation (typical distribution pattern). 📉
Volume expansion needed for breakout confirmation. 💥
5. Cycle Timing Analysis ⏰
Short-Term Cycles:
3-day cycle: Currently in compression phase. 🤏
7-day cycle: Completed around June 2-3. ✅
14-day cycle: Due for completion June 7-9. ⏳
Medium-Term Cycles:
Monthly cycle: Bullish momentum phase. ⬆️
Quarterly cycle: In expansion phase. 🌟
Cycle Projection:
Next major cycle turn expected June 7-9. 🔄
Potential for either breakout or correction during this window. 🤞
6. FORECAST: June 7-11, 2025 🔮
Primary Scenario (60% probability): Bullish Breakout 🚀
Target 1: 3,400-3,410
Target 2: 3,440-3,450
Catalyst: Break above 3,370 with volume. 💥
Timeline: June 7-9 initial move, June 10-11 extension.
Secondary Scenario (35% probability): Corrective Pullback ⬇️
Target 1: 3,320-3,325 (38.2% Fibonacci)
Target 2: 3,300-3,310 (psychological support)
Catalyst: Failure to break 3,370 resistance. 🚫
Timeline: June 7-8 decline, June 9-11 consolidation.
Low Probability Scenario (5% probability): Deep Correction 📉
Target: 3,280-3,290 (61.8% Fibonacci)
Catalyst: Major risk-off sentiment. 😱
Timeline: Extended throughout the week.
7. Key Assumptions & Risk Factors 🤔
Bullish Assumptions:
Continued institutional accumulation at current levels. 🏦
Breakout above 3,370 with confirming volume. ⬆️
Favorable macroeconomic backdrop for gold. 🌍
Weakness in USD supporting gold prices. 💵
Geopolitical tensions maintaining safe-haven demand. 🕊️
Bearish Risk Factors:
Profit-taking at psychological 3,400 level. 🤝
Stronger USD due to economic data. 💹
Reduced safe-haven demand. 📉
Technical failure at key resistance levels. 🚧
Central bank policy shifts. 🏛️
8. Trading Recommendations 💡
Entry Strategies:
Bullish Setup: Buy on pullback to 3,340-3,345 with stop below 3,320. 🎯
Breakout Play: Buy break above 3,372 with stop below 3,350. 🚀
Conservative: Wait for retest of 3,324 support area. patiently 🧘
Risk Management:
Position Size: Limit to 2-3% of portfolio per trade. 📏
Stop Loss: Always use stops below key support levels. ⛔
Take Profit: Scale out at Fibonacci extension levels. 💰
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Resistance: 3,365-3,370 🛑
Support: 3,340-3,345 🛡️
Breakout Level: 3,372 🚀
Major Support: 3,320-3,325 💪
9. Conclusion ✅
The XAUUSD chart presents a constructive bullish setup with multiple confluences supporting higher prices. The completion of various cycles around June 7-9 suggests a potential catalyst for the next major move. While the primary bias remains bullish targeting 3,400+, traders should remain alert to the possibility of a corrective pullback to test lower support levels. 🧐
The institutional accumulation pattern, combined with favorable Gann angles and Fibonacci projections, supports the bullish thesis. However, proper risk management is essential given the potential for volatility around key psychological levels. ⚠️
Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Down the road - Gold Outlook June 30 - July 24, 2025FX_IDC:XAUUSD
📰 The past weeks has been a wild ride for gold prices, caught between the fiery conflict in the Middle East and a deluge of crucial economic data from the U.S. 📈 Adding to this, a detailed technical analysis provides a deeper look into gold's immediate future.
**Geopolitical Drama Unfolds & Peace Prevails!** 🕊️ ceasefire negotiations.
Initially, gold was shrouded in uncertainty 🌫️ due to the Iran-Israel war, with markets bracing for potential U.S. involvement and a full-blown escalation. Daily tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel kept everyone on edge, and the question of U.S. intervention remained a nail-biter 😬, though President Trump did announce a 14-day "timeout".
Then came the dramatic twist on June 21st: "Operation Midnighthammer" saw the U.S. unleash bunker-buster bombs on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities. 💥 Short time later, the U.S. declared mission accomplished, stating their goal of destroying these sites was achieved, and no further attacks would follow.
Iran's response, "Operation Annunciation of Victory," on the following Monday, involved missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq. 🚀 Interestingly, these attacks were pre-announced, allowing for safe evacuations and thankfully, no casualties. 🙏
The biggest surprise came from President Trump as he declared, "Congratulations world, it's time for peace!" 🎉 He then brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which, despite being fragile, largely held, leading to the war's end.🤝 Both nations, as expected, officially claimed victory – a common move to satisfy their citizens. 🏅
Personally, I was genuinely surprised that the U.S.President mediated ceasefire, actually brought the conflict to a close – but it's a welcome outcome! 🙏
**Economic Data & Fed's Steady Hand** 💹🏛️
The cessation of hostilities triggered a steady downward slide in gold prices from June 24th to 27th. ⬇️ This dip initially met some market resistance but it ultimately prevailed, especially with the release of mixed U.S. economic data, which, despite being varied, was generally interpreted positively by the market.
The spotlight also shone on the Federal Reserve, with several representatives speaking and Fed Chair Jerome Powell undergoing a two-day Senate hearing. 🎤👨⚖️ Powell meticulously explained the Fed's rationale for holding interest rates steady, despite market pressures. 🤷 However, recent whispers suggest the Federal Reserve might actually cut rates in September! 😮
## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰
India / Pakistan
Pakistan rejected claims that it supported militant groups active in Indian Kashmir. India issued a formal protest but reported no fresh border clashes during the week.
Outlook 🔮: De-escalation is possible in the short term. However, unresolved disputes over water rights (Indus Treaty) could reignite tensions.
Gaza Conflict
Heavy Israeli airstrikes killed dozens in Gaza, including civilians near aid centers. The UN warned that U.S.-backed aid systems are failing. Humanitarian corridors remain blocked.
Outlook 🔮: Ceasefire talks may resume in July, but success depends on international pressure and safe humanitarian access.
Russia / Ukraine
Russia advanced 36 sq mi in eastern Ukraine, deploying outdated T-62 tanks. Ukraine reinforced defensive lines, aided by Western military packages.
Outlook 🔮: The front remains volatile. Sustained Western support will be key to halting further Russian gains.
U.S. – China Trade War
A breakthrough deal was signed for China to fast-track rare-earth exports to the U.S. Talks on tech transfer and tariffs continue behind closed doors.
Outlook 🔮: A phased de-escalation is possible, but deep trust issues linger, especially over semiconductors and AI.
🌐 Global Trade War
Several countries, including Brazil and Thailand, imposed fresh restrictions on Chinese imports, echoing the U.S. stance. Global supply chains remain fragmented.
Outlook 🔮: Trade blocs like the EU and Mercosur may take on greater importance as countries hedge against rising protectionism.
Trump vs. Powell
Fed Chair Powell resisted political pressure, stating rate cuts are unlikely before September. Trump called him “stubborn” and demanded immediate easing.
Outlook 🔮: The Fed’s independence is under strain. If Trump wins re-election, major policy shifts could follow.
📈 U.S. Inflation
Despite tariffs, core inflation remains elevated. Powell warned of persistent price pressures. Trump insists the Fed should cut rates to boost growth.
Outlook 🔮: A rate cut later in 2025 is possible—if labor market data weakens. Until then, inflation will remain politically explosive.
## Technical View 📐📈
**Current Market Context:** Gold plummeted to $3,273.67 USD/t.oz on June 27, 2025, marking a 1.65% drop from the previous day, which confirms the strong bearish momentum. The price action shows a significant retreat from recent highs around $3,400.
**ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Methodology Analysis:**
* **Market Structure:**
The trend is clearly bearish, with a definitive break of structure (BOS) to the downside.
* **Order Blocks:**
Several bearish order blocks have been identified at prior resistance levels, specifically in the $3,380-$3,400 range.
* **Fair Value Gaps (FVG):**
The aggressive sell-off has created multiple imbalances, particularly in the $3,350-$3,320 range.
* **Liquidity Pools:**
Buy-side liquidity above $3,400 has been swept. Sell-side liquidity is now accumulating below the $3,270 lows, which is the current target zone.
* **Session Analysis:**
The London session showed aggressive selling, followed by a continuation of bearish momentum in the New York session. The Asia session could see consolidation or further declines.
* **Smart Money Concepts:**
Heavy selling pressure suggests "smart money" distribution. There's been strong bearish displacement from $3,380 down to $3,270, indicating the market is currently in a "sell program" phase.
**Gann Analysis:**
* **Gann Angles & Time Cycles:**
The primary 1x1 Gann angle has been broken, pointing to continued weakness. Key price squares indicate resistance at $3,375 (25²) and support at $3,249 (57²). Daily cycles suggest a potential turning point around June 30-July 1, while weekly cycles indicate continued pressure through early July.
* **Gann Levels:**
* Resistance: $3,375, $3,400, $3,481 (59²)
* Support: $3,249, $3,136, $3,025
**Fibonacci Analysis:**
* **Key Retracement Levels (from recent swing high to low):**
* 78.6%: $3,378 (Strong resistance)
* 61.8%: $3,348 (Key resistance zone)
* 50.0%: $3,325 (Psychological level)
* 38.2%: $3,302 (Minor resistance)
* 23.6%: $3,285 (Current area of interest)
* **Fibonacci Extensions (Downside Targets):**
* 127.2%: $3,245
* 161.8%: $3,195
* 261.8%: $3,095
* **Time-Based Fibonacci:**
The next significant time cluster is July 2-3, 2025, with a major cycle completion expected around July 15-17, 2025.
**Institutional Levels & Volume Analysis:**
* **Key Institutional Levels:**
* Major Resistance: $3,400 (psychological + institutional)
* Secondary Resistance: $3,350-$3,375 (order block cluster)
* Primary Support: $3,250-$3,270 (institutional accumulation zone)
* Major Support: $3,200 (monthly pivot area)
* **Volume Profile Analysis:**
* High Volume Node (HVN): $3,320-$3,340 (fair value area)
* Low Volume Node (LVN): $3,280-$3,300 (potential acceleration zone)
* Point of Control (POC): Currently around $3,330
**Central Bank & Hedge Fund Levels:**
Based on recent COT data and institutional positioning, heavy resistance is seen at $3,400-$3,430, where institutions likely distributed. An accumulation zone for "smart money" re-entry is anticipated at $3,200-$3,250.
**Cycle Timing Analysis:**
* **Short-Term Cycles (Intraday):**
Bearish momentum is expected to continue for another 12-18 hours. A daily cycle low is likely between June 29-30, with a potential reversal zone on July 1-2 for the 3-day cycle.
* **Medium-Term Cycles:**
The current weekly cycle is in week 3 of a 4-week decline. The monthly cycle indicates a mid-cycle correction within a larger uptrend. For the quarterly cycle, Q3 2025 could see a major low formation.
* **Seasonal Patterns:**
July-August is typically a weaker period for gold ("Summer Doldrums"). September has historically been strong for precious metals ("September Effect"), setting up for a potential major move higher in Q4 2025 ("Year-End Rally").
**Trading Strategy & Levels:**
* **Bearish Scenario (Primary):**
* Entry: Sell rallies into the $3,320-$3,350 resistance zone.
* Targets: $3,250, $3,200, $3,150.
* Stop Loss: Above $3,380.
* **Bullish Scenario (Secondary):**
* Entry: Buy support at $3,250-$3,270 with confirmation.
* Targets: $3,320, $3,375, $3,400.
* Stop Loss: Below $3,230.
**Key Events to Watch:**
* **US PCE Data:**
Fresh downside risks could emerge ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data release.
* **Fed Communications:**
Any hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could further pressure gold.
* **Geopolitical Developments:**
Ongoing global events could trigger safe-haven demand.
**Conclusion:**
The technical picture for gold suggests continued short-term weakness, with the metal testing its 2025 trend line at $3,290 following last week's rejection at the $3,430 resistance. However, the longer-term outlook remains constructive, given gold's robust performance year-to-date. Key support at $3,250-$3,270 will be crucial in determining the next significant price movement.
**Upcoming Week's Economic Calendar (June 29 - July 4, 2025):** 🗓️🌍
🗓️ Get ready for these important economic events (EDT)
* ** Sunday , June 29, 2025**
* 21:30 CNY: Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 49.6, Previous: 49.5
* ** Monday , June 30, 2025**
* 09:45 USD: Chicago PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 42.7, Previous: 40.5
* ** Tuesday , July 1, 2025**
* 05:00 EUR: CPI (YoY) (Jun) - Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 1.9%
* 09:30 USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks
* 09:45 USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 52.0, Previous: 52.0
* 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 48.8, Previous: 48.5
* 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 70.2, Previous: 69.4
* 10:00 USD: JOLTS Job Openings (May) - Forecast: 7.450M, Previous: 7.391M
* ** Wednesday , July 2, 2025**
* 08:15 USD: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) - Forecast: 80K, Previous: 37K
* 10:30 USD: Crude Oil Inventories - Forecast: -5.836M
* ** Thursday , July 3, 2025**
* Holiday: United States - Independence Day (Early close at 13:00) 🇺🇸⏰
* 08:30 USD: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) - Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4%
* 08:30 USD: Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast: 239K, Previous: 236K
* 08:30 USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) - Forecast: 129K, Previous: 139K
* 08:30 USD: Unemployment Rate (Jun) - Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.2%
* 09:45 USD: S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 53.1, Previous: 53.1
* 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 50.3, Previous: 49.9
* 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 68.7
* ** Friday , July 4, 2025**
* All Day: Holiday - United States - Independence Day 🎆
**Gold Price Forecast for the Coming Week** 🔮💰
Given last week's market movements, there's a strong likelihood that the downward trend in gold prices will continue.🔽 However, fresh news can always flip the script! 🔄 As of now, I expect gold to dip further to $3255 by mid-next week. Yet, a brief rebound towards $3300 isn't out of the question before a potential drop to $3200 by week's end or early the following week. 🤞
Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Monday Outlook on Gold (XAU/USD)In my opinion, we can expect a drop at the beginning of the week, with price potentially falling to the 3310–3300 zone. This area may act as a demand zone or liquidity pool, from where I expect a bullish reaction. After reaching that level, I anticipate the price to climb back up toward the trendline.
I’ll be watching for confirmations around 3300 for possible long entries.
Let’s see how the market opens on Monday.
Big changes begin. Dominant trend?Event summary:
The United States passed the Big and Beautiful Act; how to get this part of the tax after the massive tax cut? Then it can only be obtained through other means, and the tariff war initiated by Trump is one of them. At the same time, the bill will increase the federal debt by trillions of dollars, further widening the gap between the rich and the poor.
Immediately after the bill was signed and took effect, Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party". He wrote: We live in a one-party state, not a democratic country. Today, the American Party is established to return your freedom to you. At the same time, Musk posted on July 6, when and where should we hold the first congress of the "American Party"? This will be very interesting.
This event is likely to support the trend change of gold bulls in the short term.
Market analysis:
From the daily chart, after bottoming out and rebounding this week, the weekly line closed higher, and there is still upward momentum next week; short-term focus on the pressure of the 3345-3365 range, which is likely to become a key area for long and short competition. Before breaking upward, focus on the high and fall. Pay attention to the support rebound of 3320-3325 area below. Once the upper pressure range is broken, the bullish space will expand, and it is not ruled out that it will hit above 3400 and then go down.
In terms of operation, the price falls back and buy on dips in the 3315-20 area, and pay attention to the profit range of 3345-3365 on the upside.