Will Gold Hold Support or Break Lower?
OANDA:XAUUSD 30-Min Chart Analysis
Potential Scenarios
Bullish Scenario:
• Volume Bullish Divergence: Indicating a potential reversal if buying pressure continues.
• Strong Support: Price is near a key support level, which may hold and prompt an upward move.
• Falling Broadening Wedge: A potential bullish reversal pattern. If confirmed, this could lead to a breakout.
Bearish Scenario:
• If price breaks below the current channel, the next target could be 2656, with a possible further decline toward 2617 if selling pressure persists.
Key Levels to Watch:
• 2695
• 2700
• 2702
• 2710
As always, follow your risk management plan. Good luck, and happy trading!
Xauusd(w)
The gold market experienced sell-offs.Experts believe that the market's adjustment phase is a "temporary" reaction to Donald Trump's re-election as US President and maintains his opinion in favor of increasing gold prices in the near future.
During the question and answer session this morning, Governor of the State Bank Nguyen Thi Hong shared that "gold is also a headache for the world". She informed that before the State Bank intervened, the international price per ounce was about 2,300-2,400 USD, but has now increased to around 2,700 USD. Compared to the beginning of the year, precious metals have increased by more than 50%.
The USD skyrocketed after this event, and the gold market experienced sell-offs. Bond yields rose as investors worried that the tariffs and tax cuts that Mr. Trump promised before his election could cause inflation to rise again.
Morrison said, USD and interest rates increased. Gold prices fell sharply and found a bottom, then increased slightly in the last session of the week, gold was under strong selling pressure. Gold prices hold support from 2,635 to 2,675 USD/ounce. This is the resistance level of gold prices in the last week of September and early October.
XAU/USD 11 November 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 08 November 2024.
Price has now printed a bullish CHoCH indicating bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price has reacted from premium of 50% established internal range.
Intraday Expectation: Price is expected to weak internal low priced at 2,643.355
Note: Due to the Fed’s softer stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, we should remain mindful that volatility in Gold is likely to persist.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 8 November 2024. Note how price is failing to target weak internal high.
Price Action Analysis: Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, indicating the initiation of a bearish pullback phase.
Intraday Expectation: Technically, price is expected to react from either the discount of 50% internal equilibrium level (EQ) or the M15 demand zone before targeting the weak internal high.
Alternative Scenario: Given that the H4 timeframe is in a bullish pullback phase, it's no surprise that the M15 chart has printed a bullish iBOS. However, with H4 price trading up to premium of 50% internal EQ and reacting from that premium zone, it wouldn’t be surprising if the price prints a bearish iBOS.
Note: With the Fed's softer policy stance and escalating geopolitical tensions, elevated price volatility is likely to persist.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD 15 MINUTE TIME FRAME CHARTGeneral outlook
XAUUSD has been under selling pressure within in the last couble of hours. The pair moved up the support level of 2669.
possible scenario
The best way buy use this opportunity is to place a buy order is at 2672.
Set yorur stoploss at 2665 below the previous low take profit 2688.
WISH YOU BEST LUCK
Gold Prices Today: Sharp Drop at Market OpenOn the morning of November 11, gold prices opened at $2,674 per ounce, down approximately $10 from the previous week's close. This sharp decline followed the recent election, sparking a wave of investor sell-offs and raising concerns about the future direction of the precious metal.
The decline may persist for about six weeks, but medium- to long-term demand is expected to rise. Many central banks are continuing to diversify their assets with gold to reduce dependence on the US dollar. Additionally, the Federal Reserve and other central banks may maintain accommodative monetary policies to support slowing economies, potentially creating favorable conditions for gold prices to rebound in the future.
XAUUSD RECAP & TRADE IDEAFrom the previous setup, we can see that the movement of gold made a breakout at the 2728 level before dropping to the take profit level at the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (2651) and then made a correction to the 50-61.8 Fibonacci retracement level (2709). So this week, I am waiting to see if the current price will head towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension before deciding to continue the buy position. If the price successfully breaks the support level at 2642, it is likely that the price will head towards 2360-2500/90. However, if there is a bounce at the support area, the price might continue to rise towards 2690-2700.
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
Gold Price Today (11/11): Has the Uptrend Ended?Gold prices are currently under strong downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and market sentiment. Positive economic indicators from the U.S., such as the rise in the Consumer Confidence Index and inflation expectations, lead investors to forecast that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near future. Additionally, increased holiday shopping demand is boosting the U.S. economy, but putting pressure on gold prices. The market also expects gold to continue declining as Donald Trump takes office.
Looking at the chart, we see that the EMA 34 has crossed below the EMA 89, signaling a bearish trend and indicating that the price trend has shifted to the downside. With resistance levels at 2,706 and 2,670, it will be difficult for gold to regain an uptrend. The next support level may be around 2,620, where gold could find strong buying interest and possibly reverse temporarily. However, if this support is not maintained and prices break lower, the likelihood of gold continuing to decline to deeper support levels, such as 2,590 and 2,550, is high.
In this context, with gold prices likely to continue falling, it is essential to closely monitor key support and resistance levels to make informed investment decisions. If gold cannot hold important support levels, investors may need to adjust their portfolios accordingly.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 11 - Nov 15]Last week, after opening at 2,738 USD/oz, gold prices increased slightly to 2,749 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,643 USD/oz after Donald Trump announced his re-election as President. America. In the next trading session, gold price recovered to 2,710 USD/oz when the FED announced to continue cutting interest rates by 0.25%. However, the recovery momentum of gold prices was not sustainable, gold prices quickly dropped to 2,680 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,684 USD/oz.
The reason why Donald Trump's re-election as US President caused gold prices to plummet is because: First, investors expect that Mr. Trump will be able to intervene soon to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, tension on the Korean peninsula,... Because during his first term, Mr. Trump almost did not let any fierce fighting occur. This will reduce the haven role of gold in the eyes of investors.
Second, during the election campaign, Mr. Trump pledged to impose a 60% tax on goods imported from China and impose a 20% tax on goods imported from other countries. If Mr. Trump carries out this commitment, it will push up the prices of US consumer goods, causing inflationary pressures to return, forcing the FED to raise interest rates, helping the USD increase sharply compared to other major currencies, causing Gold price dropped sharply.
Mr. Trump's victory may continue to have a negative impact on gold prices in the short term, but this impact may gradually decrease, because Mr. Trump will officially take office early next year. Therefore, US economic data may receive more attention from investors because it directly impacts the prospect of cutting interest rates by the FED.
This week's economic calendar is quite bleak, especially when compared to this week's major events. The main economic news and events to monitor will be CPI, PPI, October retail sales, and US weekly unemployment benefit claims data. In addition, FED Chairman Jerome Powell will also give a speech next Thursday.
📌From a technical perspective, on the H4 chart, the price of gold is forming a head and shoulders pattern, however, confirmation is needed when the 2642 support zone is broken. If this price model is true, the gold price may drop to an area approaching 2,530 USD/oz. In the opposite case, the gold price will still maintain its upward momentum if the price trades above the 2710 threshold, and at the same time breaks through the peak level at 2,790 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2755
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?The Gold (XAU/USD) has reacted off the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 2,713.01
1st Support: 2,605.27
1st Resistance: 2,790.10
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Gold Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
XAUUSD 10/11/24XAU Followed our newly established selling buyer last week, a clear shift to the downside. Of course, this was helped by the US election and the results. We now have the same scenario and the same bias in place. We have one area of supply that has already been tapped into. We have 2 liquid highs that are situated at that area of supply and then a higher point of supply which is untapped. Now ultimately we aim for the low as always a pullback is not necessary, but this is gold. So there is a scenario that all these points for selling will fail and we will then aim for the all time high. Our current bias is bearish if this changes during the week and we will update everybody. if it does not we will continue to sell this down to lower pricing before institute becomes interested once again.
Follow your plan and stick to your risk!
XAUUSD top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Gold out Lookthose who are bearish should see weekly Rejection till the trend line price broke its daily recent trend line and got back in i suggest that gold will remain bullish over this week as it has not broke its trend line to the downside if it does so and breaks below 2678 level of support we can consider it will drop towards 2661 and then 2648-45 level of support and will not come upwards easily then another confluence is gold has closed back in position and remained near 2700 level and retested it several times
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2704 and a gap below at 2682. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2704
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2704 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2725
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2725 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2753
BEARISH TARGETS
2682
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2682 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2657
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2657 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2638
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2638 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE RANGE
SWING RANGE
2621 - 2608
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price lay between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2696 and a gap below at 2665, as weighted Goldturns and will need ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2694
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2694 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2724
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2724 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2754
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2754 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2784
BEARISH TARGETS
2665
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2665 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE RANGE
SWING RANGE
2640 - 2611
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD DAILY CHART SHORT/MID TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Please see update on our daily chart idea that we have been tracking for a while with the updated retracement and swing range.
Previously after completing 2760 target, we stated that we now have a candle body close above 2760 for a continuation above with a gap open to 2797. We got the move but fell just short of the full gap, but no ema5 lock, which would've further confirm this. We also stated that failure to complete this gap will see price test the retracement range for bounces and a further lock below the retracement range will open the swing range.
- We got the rejection from no ema5 lock above, followed with the retracement range and swing range test, which both gave the bounces like we said.
As long as we see price stay above the swing range, we will continue to see the levels above tested and support levels re-tested for the bounces, keeping in mind the long range/term gap above.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we will continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX