Get started

Xauusd-trend

World gold fees elevated because the Middle East war escalatedGold is visible as a hedge in opposition to financial and geopolitical instability, even as better hobby prices lessen the enchantment of protecting non-yielding gold. Most policymakers on the maximum current assembly of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) have been involved approximately the dangers of decreasing hobby prices too soon, with uncertainty approximately whether or not hobby prices will continue to be at their level. present day degrees for the way long, in step with mins from the Fed`s January assembly. “The Fed isn't always going to decrease or improve hobby prices, so I suppose gold nevertheless has upside potential,” stated Daniel Pavilonis, senior marketplace strategist at RJO Futures. The Fed will probable decrease hobby prices in June, in step with a majority of economists in a Reuters poll. The dollar's index weakened, making gold greater appealing to overseas buyers.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NicoTradingMaster
HelenP. I Gold can correct to trend line and then continue riseHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Some time ago price rebounded from support 2, which is located in the support zone, and tried to rise, but failed and in a short time declined to the trend line, thereby breaking this level. After this, the price rebounded from the trend line and made impulse up higher than support 2. Later price rose higher and then made a correction to the trend line, after this Gold rebounded from this line and continued to move up to support 1, which coincided with one more support zone. And soon, the price broke this level, and entered to support zone, but at once rebounded below and fell to the trend line. Also soon, Gold backed up to support 1 and recently broke it again. As well then it continued to rise and now Gold trades higher than the support zone and for my mind, it can decline to the trend line, which is located in the support zone. Then price rebounded and continued to move up, therefore I set up my target at the 2030 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FirstNameHelen
1
GOLD SELL TILL 24 NOV 2023 On 24th Nov, Friday, or 27th Nov, Monday, gold will create a low at 1924 and change the market to buy. Also, on 27th Nov, it's a full moon, so we are expecting a change of trend from 24th Nov or 27th Nov. The market will create a major low, and on 12th Dec, gold will create a high of 1998, and the trend will change to sell. Let's see how the market will respect our analysis. Previous analyses indicate that gold followed very beautifully; let's observe this one.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by ganntimetrader
XAUUSD/GOLD TODAY 22/08/23GOLD is still within the range of 1888 - 1897. The price, which was continuously pressured by the MA8, has finally reversed and crossed both the MA8 and MA20. Only the resistance at 1897 is holding back Loco's efforts for a temporary reversal. It's likely that GOLD will remain sideways until the Flash Manufacturing PMI tomorrow night. However, given the increasingly erratic MA Pattern, it's better to avoid entering positions today. Due to the identified weakening trend, let's refrain from trading today. R3 1940.521 R2 1931.641 R1 1910.629 PV 1896.393 S1 1888.452 S2 1882.693 S3 1870.758
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AbsoluteWillid
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Looking outside the Scope of TrendA Cost-Benefit Analysis of Looking outside the Scope of Trend: To Peek or Not to Peek “The trend is your friend until the end when it bends.” - Ed Seykota Trend analysis lies at the core of technical analysis. Modern technical analysis derived from Dow Theory. In turn, Dow Theory emphasized the nature and importance of trends and their constituent parts and degrees. Many may recall Dow’s analogy of different trend degrees: the tide (primary trend), waves (secondary trend), and ripples on the waves (minor / short-term trend). Technical analysis includes many other concepts within its scope. But within technical analysis broadly, the primary focus remains the trend structure. Before considering trends, it may help to discuss the distinction broadly between technical analysis and fundamental analysis. A. Technical Analysis versus Fundamental Analysis Top traders and market experts have taken each side in the debate over whether technical or fundamental analysis has the greatest efficacy. Some have straddled the line, preferring a combination of the two. Some consider technical analysis to be not only superior but also relatively straightforward and efficient compared to other types of analysis, such as fundamental analysis or positioning analysis.FN1 Positioning analysis is beyond the scope of this post and is briefly explained in the first footnote. Jim Rogers, a famous investor who managed a reportedly very successful fund with George Soros in the 1970s, and who had had many accurate forecasts, expressed strong disdain for technical analysis—he once told Jack Schwager, “I haven’t met a rich technician.” But some of the greatest traders and market experts stand on the other side of this debate. For example, Ed Seykota is a trader of great renown included in Schwager’s 1993 Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders. Seykota chose the technical-analysis camp, giving the most weight to trends, chart patterns and good entries and exits. He once described markets in a way that evokes Charles Dow’s wave analogy: If you want to know everything about the market, go to the beach. Push and pull your hands with the waves. Some are bigger waves, some are smaller. But if you try to push the wave out when its coming in, it’ll never happen. The market is always right. A former portfolio manager for Fidelity Management who founded several other research and investment firms, David Lundgren, described how he came to follow the principles of technical analysis even though he still expressed great value for fundamental analysis. From an interview included in a 2021 Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine, Lundgren shared some of his experiences and insights on this topic. In his view, fundamentals can matter significantly over the long term especially as to stocks. But Lundgren’s most outstanding remarks in this interview distinguished between these two conceptual approaches to financial markets. He aptly characterized fundamental analysis as being based on the view that the “market is wrong.” In other words, the valuations drawn from a publicly traded company’s financial statements (e.g., P/E ratio, enterprise value, book value) assume the market is “overestimating or underestimating value” and that the price should be above / below the current market price. By contrast, he said technical analysis assumes the contrary view that the market is actually right in its current price and price trend. The critical distinction between technical analysis and fundamental analysis boils down to ego, according to Lundgren, because pure technical analysis “accepts the verdict of the market” whereas pure fundamental analysis “involves hundreds of hours developing an opinion of what is attractive and often with the verdict of the market.” Much ink has and will be spilled on whether price discounts everything, and if so, how fast and efficiently (Charles Dow Theory). In any case, fundamental, technical and positioning modes of analysis are not mutually exclusive. B. Whether to Consider Data outside the Confines of Trend Since last year’s October 2022 lows in the S&P 500 (SPX) and other major US indices, the current equity market uptrend has been challenging and bewildering to many investors, traders and analysts. It has been especially difficult to comprehend for those who are keenly aware of the broader financial and macroeconomic environment, which includes purportedly tight monetary policy and quantitative tightening (reducing Treasury securities off the Fed’s balance sheet) as well as stubborn core inflation. Such an environment broadly speaking remains unfavorable to equities for the most part.FN2 But trends do not always move in the most sensible direction, and they do not always align consistently with the macroeconomic evidence. Sentiment or even positioning, discussed briefly in the first footnote, can affect the trend even when it may run counter to the macroeconomic evidence. And trends can stretch into an overbought or oversold condition longer than anyone expects, a principle captured by the old aphorism, attributed to John Maynard Keynes, that “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Exhaustion doesn’t require a 180-degree turn but often appears more like a process, especially at market tops given the long-only nature of most equity capital. Pure trend followers, who supposedly consider only the technical trend-based evidence, may not care whether the trend makes sense. Indeed, they place their stops and align their trades / investments in accordance with one of many trend-based strategies. And this narrowed focus may be very helpful and exceedingly profitable at times. A recent example is the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), or even some large or mega-cap tech names like AAPL, MSFT, META, and NVDA. These indices and securities could have rewarded narrowly focused trend-followers quite well on daily and weekly time frames over the past eight months, especially if discipline was used to enter positions at major uptrend supports with stops moved to breakeven or higher along the way. Such trend traders and investors may be busily counting their profits rather than being distracted with inverted yield curves and FOMC policy statements. The question becomes whether one may look outside the trend (or technical analysis generally). This issue likely generates pages of academic argument and hours of financial media debates between experts. And it may be something for all traders to ponder for a bit. Given how much of an influence positioning has developed on equity markets over time, as well as central-bank quantitative tightening or quantitative easing, it seems important to consider data from such sources. Such data may also include trend information that affects trends in everything else. For example, trends in the price of commodities may tell us about inflation and likelihood of tighter monetary policy / interest rate hikes by a central bank. And trends in the money supply may strengthen or weaken the case for a current trend in equities. C. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Looking beyond the Trend In this author’s view, it is not necessarily foolish or improper to sneak a peek or a long thoughtful gaze, outside a rigid trend-based framework. As with everything in life and trading, costs and benefits must be weighed. The biggest drawback to going outside the confines of trend is the tendency of many traders to try to consider far too much. Our brains are only capable of processing so much at a given time. Focusing on too much data can cause dilute confidence, weaken resolve, and obfuscate trends. In addition, by the time a trader considers a macroeconomic data point, computerized systems likely have informed all the largest institutional players, or even algorithmic or high-frequency traders, who acted on it before you even had a chance to review its implications. And the market’s reaction to non-technical data points is not always intuitive. But if one can manage understanding additional data outside the trend/price framework, one might find benefit in learning and following data on yield curves, bond-market dynamics, Fed Funds rates, macroeconomic data, inflationary measures, and volatility gauges can inform one’s outlook in useful ways. The key here is to avoid repeatedly (and blindly) fighting the trend in price—even if one fights that trend with some of the most rational, reasonable and persuasive arguments based on overwhelming macroeconomic, volatility, sentiment, positioning, or other such evidence as to why price should be going the opposite way. In short, this is the important general rule for trend-based systems—make the trend your friend until the end when it bends.FN3 D. Practical Application and Hypotheticals Just because one should make friends with the trend does not warrant chasing extended trends (see FN3), unless the trader or investor has developed particular expertise in momentum trading, and even then, caution is greatly warranted. Every trend has its proper entries for the time frame involved. Uptrends necessarily require countertrend retracements to support whether defined as an anchored VWAP, key moving average, Fibonacci retracement, upward trendline, or standard-deviation based measures such as linear regression or Bollinger Bands. Technically, this is not peeking outside the trend, but rather it merely considers evidence of trend exhaustion and the likelihood of mean reversion. Further, a trend-based framework should in fact include considering higher time frame trends such as a monthly chart where each price bar represents one month of price data. One of this author’s collaborators, @SPY_Master, has performed some excellent trend-based analysis on timeframes as high as monthly, quarterly (even yearly bars at times). It is quite common, moreover, for higher-degree trends to move in the opposite direction as lower-degree trends, such as during a monthly or quarterly uptrend experiencing a corrective retracement to trend support that lasts for days or weeks. Or the hourly trend can move against the daily / weekly trend, frequently does so whenever a countertrend retracement to trend support occurs. Can one technically “fight the trend” merely by preferring a higher degree time-frame trend when it conflicts with a shorter one? The answer depends on one’s time frame, risk tolerance, position size, and rationale. In addition, trends involving a particular stock, index, or other security can be evaluated based on their relative strength, i.e., as a ratio of the subject stock, index or security to another stock, index, security or data series. The S&P 500 can be compared to the Nasdaq 100 or 10-year Treasures. Or BITSTAMP:ETHUSD can be charted as a ratio to another cryptocurrency. This author would argue that such metrics can provide useful trend-based insights even though they incorporate data that is technically beyond the scope of trend. Below are a couple such relative-strength charts that arguably fall within trend-analysis despite relying on data that would normally be considered outside of a price trend's scope: Example 1 shows this author's relative strength chart of NASDAQ:AAPL to OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold). This is a very long-term chart showing the outperformance trend in AAPL over two decades to the precious medal and commodity Gold. Example 2 shows @SPY_Master's relative-strength chart of NASDAQ:NVDA , the AI-tech stock into which everyone's distant relatives are now inquiring after its meteoric rise from 2022 bear-market depths. The chart is a relative-strength chart of the ratio of NVDA to the 10-Year Treasury note, which aptly shows how overvalued NVDA is relative to a risk-free asset. It appears far too extended above the risk-free asset in terms of standard deviation on a linear regression-based model shown here. (Note that yields and bonds move inversely, so where an asset outperforms a risk-free bond, it means that the asset is extended given the level of yields produced by that bond.) Credit: SPY_Master (used with permission) To conclude, consider the following hypothetical scenarios as a thought experiment. Assume a stock has a monthly or quarterly chart that is extended multiple deviations above the mean (or multiple deviations as a ratio of its price to the money supply). NVDA presents a good case study for these concepts. Scenario A: A person entered the position at $290 and took profits on this stock at $405, preferring to exercise caution and avoid this stock as a long-term investment. Scenario B: A hedge fund with a 150-page report of deep research on NVDA and the macroeconomic backdrop has a 10-year time horizon and begins scaling into a short position to anticipate a mean reversion at the higher degrees of trend (monthly, quarterly time frames). The hedge fund will add one quarter at $450, another quarter position at $500, and the final two quarters between $500 and $600 if reached. Should either scenario be deemed fighting the trend? Is either scenario ill-advised use of capital? Any answers are welcome in the comments provided respectful towards others. FN1 This footnote helps explain some basics of fundamental and positioning analysis. Beyond this brief explanation, this article will defer to other educational experts for a more thorough explanation of these three modes of financial analysis. Fundamental analysis for equity indices like SP:SPX or NASDAQ:NDX considers macroeconomic data and metrics that focus on an economy’s growth (e.g., GDP), price-stability / inflation (CPI, PCE, PPI), consumption, real estate, money supply, central-bank rate policies, central-bank QE or QT, trade deficits, and more. Fundamental analysis as to individual stocks involves the use of financial data such as revenue, earnings per share, cost of goods sold, capital expenditures, and other data available from a public company’s certified financial statements, as well as financial ratios relying on such data, e.g., earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, price-to-sales ratios (P/S) and liquidity ratios (current ratio). In the US and other major economies, securities rules mandate that companies file full disclosure of their financial health, certified by CEOs and CFOs, in annual reports (10-K and quarterly reports (10-Q) on an ongoing basis. Positioning analysis looks at a complex array of data that covers institutional market positioning and order flows for stocks, options, indices, commodities and futures. It also looks at increasingly important dealer hedging flows (volume and open interest) in options markets and the effect of implied volatility and time on such flows. It can include such insights as net positioning on each side of a given futures market or index by hedgers and speculators. This is an area where expert commentary is helpful to learn even the basics. FN2 Yet the central-bank and US Treasury actions behind the scenes may have masked, or even partially or wholly offset, tight Fed interest rate and monetary policy at times during the first half of 2023. For example, many financial publications and analysts discussed the US Treasury’s accounting maneuvers intended to prolong its borrowing authority in light of the debt-ceiling standoff. Commentary also noted that such maneuvering, draining the TGA account (the US Treasury’s “checking account” held at the Federal Reserve), injected money / liquidity into the financial system, which likely muted Fed’s efforts to tighten policy in the short-term while those actions were ongoing. FN3 But as is often the case with a general rule, the exceptions can dilute the rule somewhat. One prominent exception is mean-reversion analysis / trading systems. In addition, some traders and institutions are trend-reversal traders—a high risk, high reward type approach that requires immaculate risk management, timing, precision and patience, often scaling into and out of massive positions that cannot be acquired or unloaded in a period of days.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SquishTrade
7
GOLD - Long after filling the imbalance ✅Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on XAUUSD. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for longs from discount zone. I expect price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalance and then to reject from 1990. Fundamental analysis: Next week we have news on USD, on Wednesday will be released CPI and on Thursday PPI, these 2 are very important news, so we have to pay attention to the results. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Snick3rSD
2
XAUUSD BIAS: LIKELY TO SELL SOON @ THE EQUAL HIGHS AREAHello there, having mapped out the XAUUSD chart in the H1-H4 timeframe, it's very clear that the price is making equal highs, most especially in the H1 timeframe. The question now is should we sell here? Unh, the answer to this question is that our sell decision is highly questionable, why? It's only because that's a very bullish market, so selling there is like daring the market. As you know, the best trade setup is following the trend. Don't dare the market! My Thought: if you want to sell it, make sure there is a solid signal like a nice bearish pin bar or a perfect bearish engulfing candle plus a momentum indicator like stochastic(my favorite among others) and others. My Entry Approach: My entry approach for this market is that I have to wait for the small resistance line I drew to be broken and retested before I could make any trade decision as there will be some sort of manipulations for liquidity in that area. Patience is the key here for the big banks and the smart money is watching your trades, hunting for your money, I mean your stop loss. Stay out of FOMO. The market will always create more and more opportunities day by day. If the market runs away, then let it run away; it will surely come back to you. My Final Judgment: XAUUSD will sell. Stop Lose:2011.490 Take Profit: 1940: 801 Entry: Undecided, waiting for the line drawn for the price to break and retest it (it's there we look for a nice trade signal). Or, enter anyhow you know.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OraclePips
Gold Down To 1926$ ?Gold prices traded just below their strongest levels in 11 months on Monday as markets gauged the impact of emergency liquidity measures from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks amid increasing fears of a banking crisis. The increased liquidity measures by the Fed also undermine a year of monetary tightening done by the bank to curb inflation, and are likely to keep gold demand supported. So for me It will be a pressure of fear for buying the gold metal and that will push him a little down .
TVC:GOLDShort
by ZumixFX
XAUUSDHello traders. I am patient at the moment with this gold price action. In my opinion I see 2 possible scenarios. 1st is the stop hunt of retail buyers in conjuction with selling panic down to 1792 and then a buying reversal. 2nd one is the retest of the recent highs around 1845-1856 area which will be perfect for shorts. Note: Weekly TF perspective, it is approaching a strong demand area. Contrary Note: Broken Daily - 4H - 1H predominent trend. Conclusion: Wait for the price to touch key levels! There is no need to rush. Watch the calendar for any news incoming - especially major importants news. Shift to 4H-1H-15Min for Price Action. Tomorrow is Monday, so I prefer to see what will give to us, and enter in the Tuesday or mid week.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by The_Forex_Path
7
Sell XAUUSD SW 300123 17.30 📌📌Signal Sell XAUUSD📌📌 Link : 📍📍Open order 1928 Sell lim 1 1941 Sell lim 2 1957 Sell lim 3 1969 Sell lim 4 1982 Sell lim 5 1994 Tp 1866 Sl 2006 Warning !!! (Swing trade must be use pending orders) !!!Pending orders should be set up lot size step by step Example (15,000$) Open order 0.05 lot Sell lim 1 0.08 lot Sell lim 2 0.11 lot Sell lim 3 0.15 lot Sell lim 4 0.20 lot Sell lim 5 0.30 lot Sell lim 6 (last order) = 0.84 lot Example (3,000$) Open order 0.02 lot Sell lim 1 0.03 lot Sell lim 2 0.05 lot Sell lim 3 0.05 lot Sell lim 4 0.06 lot Sell lim 5 0.7 lot Sell lim 6 (last order) = 0.27 lot !!When any pending orders are open and the profits are covered by loss it is up to your decision.!!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Maximus_Provider