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Xauusd-trend

XAU/USD MARKET ANALYSISGold could be on the brink of another rally as it tops key resistance levels and moves towards $1,800 an ounce, according to analysts. The precious metal is wrapping up its second consecutive week of gains after a positive start to Q2 amid a weaker U.S. dollar and retreating U.S. 10-year Treasury yields. At the time of writing, June Comex gold futures were trading at $1,779.90, up 2% on the week. "The move in gold has been predominately driven by the U.S. dollar, which is continuing to drop. The dollar index is at 91.5 right now. Very important to note, we've seen a pretty significant decline from the 10-year yield and along the curve broadly. All of that has driven gold to the upside," TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News. The momentum is definitely on gold's side right now, RJO Futures senior commodities broker Daniel Pavilonis told Kitco News. "If we can close above $1,815 next week, we have a good shot at a very momentous move again to the highs. Possibly continue gold's secular bull market," Pavilonis said. "Markets have calmed down a bit. We had so much pressure from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank trying to ease tensions in the yields, and it worked. And what they have been doing behind the scenes is also working, giving metals some reprieve." The weaker U.S. dollar has finally allowed gold to step out of its tight trading range, said FXTM market analyst Han Tan. "The greenback's support has been eroded with 10-year Treasury yields moving below the psychologically important 1.60% mark, which in turn has allowed spot gold to break above its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since early February," Tan said. Next weeks also marks the Federal Reserve media blackout period ahead of its monetary policy announcement on April 28. ING said that no additional Fed speakers could mean a weaker U.S. dollar, which is beneficial for gold. "A quieter week for U.S. data and the Fed in blackout period could favor a continuation of benign market trends and a slightly weaker USD," the ING strategists wrote. There is no significant resistance for gold until the $1,800, said LaSalle Futures Group senior market strategist Charlie Nedoss. "The $1,809.40 is the 100-day moving average, and over time we will hit it." It was key that the precious metal didn't close below $1,736.40 — this week's lows, Nedoss added. "A lot of this has been data-driven," he said. The market is also recalibrating after pricing in too much inflation too soon, Melek explained. "Inflation expectations have been a bit too rich, and they have been going down. It suggests that the market recalibrated its view. We've seen too much of an increase along the yield curve in its expectation of higher inflation, and now we are paring it back. Also, global economic concerns are playing a role as some countries who don't have a robust vaccine deployment plan could have a negative impact on the global recovery," he said. In the meantime, the algorithmic community has been short on gold, but traders need to watch the $1,808 level for a change in that trend, Melek noted. "Prices just north of $1,800 would catalyze the covering of a significant portion of current CTA short positions." However, it is too early to get too excited when it comes to gold's future price action, Melek warned. "We passed the 50-day moving average, the next level here is around north of $1,800." Before moving much higher, there needs to be a confirmation that the rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields is contained. "The big battle here will be between the Fed and the market. The Fed is saying that any inflation will likely be transitory due to base effects, while the market might start to worry that they are behind the curve. We are still waiting for the Fed statement to tell us that they will stay put," Melek stated. Data to watch The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate announcements are on the radar next week. They come just one week ahead of the Federal Reserve's April 27-28 monetary policy meeting. "The ECB will look through any temporary increases in headline inflation and will not tolerate significant moves in bond yields unless they are the result of improved growth prospects. The bank's decision to front-load asset purchases at the last meeting was meant to cap the rise in yields, which have tracked moves in U.S. Treasuries," ING strategists said. Markets will also be eyeing the latest U.S. jobless claims data and existing home sales, both due out on Thursday, as well as Friday's U.S. manufacturing PMI and new home sales. Since the macro data will be quieter than usual next week, analysts are also carefully monitoring the progress of U.S. President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan. "There is little sign of bi-partisanship on the $2tn package, and it seems that the Democrats are going to push it through the reconciliation process to avoid the need for 60 Senators to agree to put it to a vote. Nonetheless, not all Democrats are fully on board, meaning we could yet see changes to the package, especially surrounding the taxation part," said ING chief international economist James Knightley.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by globalsymmetrygroup
2
XAU/USD SIGNAL (SHORT-TERM BUY)TOPDOWN ANALYSIS: Shows Monthly downtrend = strong bearish signal, and shows a December uptrend = short-term bullish signal ACTION PLAN: 1.) Wait for price to show its true course - with long momentum candles (because holidays can cause consolidation/ pauses in the market) = before making a decision MAGIC IF: 1.)If market trends upward with large momentum candles, wait for a pullback to monthly bearish trendline and wait for market to show strong wick rejections before entering a buy 2.)if price turns bearish - wait for the consolidation at the December trendline (which is another bullish opportunity - if there are enough wick rejections) Reasons/ Confluences: .Market is creating recent HH & HL (which shows price wanting to break previous resistance levels) .RSI Indicator not yet above the 80 (showing bullish Divergence) .Fundamental news showing bullish - as we get closer to containing the pandemic (vaccines e.t.c) TIPS: .wait for momentum candles toward our direction, then a pullback (with rejection wicks)- before taking an entry .Never enter a trade hastily (there will always be more opportunities) ....................... !!! DONT FORGET TO LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHANNEL FOR MORE FREE SIGNALS AND TURORIALS !!! ............................
TVC:GOLDLong
by MT-Team
Blown your account deep in Gold shorts this week? I betcha.... Its easily done. You see someone selling gold with some half decent analysis and jump right in too. You see others writing about it - it makes you feel like this is going to be the one. The one that makes you big money before Christmas. Truth is, the money you make is never enough anyway. Even if it was you would keep going, trade after trade. Until this method of trading aka guessing, results in account popping like all the champagne bottles on New Years Eve, except without the cheers. This is no joke. You need a plan. A strategy that takes the guesswork out of your trading. One that can back it up. In this video I show you how easy trading can be. Life is different when you aren't sat analysing charts, seeing trend lines in your sleep - watching that red drawdown increasing and increasing. If you are serious about trading - get yourself the right tools and put yourself around the people. Chaou for now. Darren P.S. We have re branded. Why? Bored of being like everyone else, we are now POW - it stands for Progress, Overcome, Win - these words some up what we are about. Anyway, we have some giveaways on my social media this week - drop me a DM for my new IG profile to get involved.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by pow_removetheguesswork
2
Gold back to 2070Hello traders! Today i want to share with you an idea that i have in the XAU / USD for the long term. Keep in mind that it is a vision on a DAILY chart, so it probably has a time horizon of couple of months. Gold recently broke important level of 1800, price even bottomed at 1765 - last top of previous correction, where lot of retail traders had their stoplosses so the Big Players can get into their positions. Technicals are showing nice complete correction phase, about 115 days in correction is quite long time. Also gold has tendency to move a lot during - seasonal pattern from December till February, all im waiting for is break of trend in correction and get flag to get in trade after breakout. Fundamentals are still showing weak USD - Quantitative Easing, Low interest rates, also pandemic is still not over, even the vaccine is started to being shipped it doesnt meant pandemic will disapper right away. Enjoy! Trade your Plan I´m not encouraging anyone to take any trades by my analysis, it´s only my point of view to current market conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradingPeak
2