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XAU/USD tries to bypass 1,323.00 againXAU/USD tries to bypass 1,323.00 again Contrary to expectations, the exchange rate failed to sneak below the combined support formed by the lower trend-line of a junior ascending channel and the 200-hour SMA. In other words, bulls made one more, though unsuccessful, attempt to push the bullion through the upper boundary of a four-month long dominant descending channel. In larger perspective, the pair is still expected to make a fully-fledged rebound from this boundary even though the current horizontal movement might last for another two weeks because of support provided by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,311.48. On hourly chart a combination of the weekly PP, the 55- and 100-hour SMAs most probably will prevent the pair from falling below the 1,316.00 mark during this trading session. However, this scenario might be altered due to fundamentals, such as the US PPI data release.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD fails to break below 55-hour SMA XAU/USD fails to break below 55-hour SMA In result of the previous trading session the exchange rate slipped to the lower trend-line of a junior ascending channel, as expected. Although the pattern has been broken, the further plunge still seems unlikely, as the southern side is reliably covered by a combination of the updated weekly PP at 1,316.13 and the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. For this reason, the pair is likely to make one more attempt to reach the upper boundary of a dominant five-month long descending channel. Due to absence of any significant data releases the rate might spend most of this week fluctuating between the above trend-line from the north and technical indicators from the south. In larger perspective, bears are projected to take the lead for notable amount of time.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD tests dominant channel downXAU/USD tests dominant channel down In result of the surge that was triggered by two disappointing macroeconomic data releases as well as the rising 55- and 100-hour SMAs the price of yellow metal ended up at the 1,273.00 mark. The further advance seems unlikely, as the exchange rate faces resistance formed by the monthly PP and the upper trend-line of a four-month long dominant descending channel that supposedly started to transform into rising wedge formation. However, the overall market sentiment as well as allocation of pending orders suggest that rise of the bullion might continue. In case the pair crosses the above barriers, it will be free to climb up to the 1,287.15 level, which represents location of the 100-day SMA.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD heads towards weekly R1XAU/USD heads towards weekly R1 In result of the previous trading session, the pair made a breakout from rising wedge pattern that formed at the intersection of two junior ascending channels. Surprisingly, but traders did not show much interest to release of the American housing data or successful vote in the House. Accordingly, the exchange rate continues to slowly climb towards the weekly R1 located at the 1,266.05 level. A major recovery of the buck even in case of adoption of tax bill by the Senate looks doubtful, as the southern side is reliably covered by the monthly S1, the 55- and 100-hour SMAs plus the lower boundary of one of the above channels. On the other hand, a serious appreciation of the bullion is also uncertain due to resistance posed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,268.00.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
1
XAU/USD tests upper boundary of senior channelXAU/USD tests upper boundary of senior channel During the last trading session the exchange rate expectedly tried to break through the upper boundary of a senior descending channel. In the middle of the day it even managed to reach the alleged resistance zone near 1,259.00 but then was forced to retreat. Today these attempts are expected to resume due to continuous pressure exercised by the 55 SMA. However, the growing optimist related to adoption of tax bill by the Congress is likely to result in ultimate appreciation of the buck. On the other hand, an effect from this fundamental event might not be especially sharp due to existence of a strong support zone located around the 1,254.00 mark that is backed up by the 200-hour SMA.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD soars to 1,259.00XAU/USD soars to 1,259.00 After forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern and bouncing off from the weekly S2 at 1,235.93 the yellow metal managed to advance by 1.23% against the buck. In daily perspective the surge the is expected to last until the rate makes a new rebound either from the 1,263.63 resistance level or from a combination of the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,268.00. However, through the day the soar is likely to be stopped by release of information on the American Core Retail Sales. In this sense, there is a need to take into account the resistance zone formed between the 1,259.00 and 1,259.32 marks and support zone located between the 1,254.00 and 1,253.62 levels, which are likely to squeeze the pair for some time.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD tries to break below monthly S2XAU/USD tries to break below monthly S2 Previous trading session the exchange rate mostly spent in a horizontal movement between the monthly S2 from the bottom and the upper boundary of a medium-term descending channel from the top. As on daily chart the pair continues to fluctuate in a junior channel down, a little recovery of the yellow metal is expected to happen. On the other hand, on hourly chart the upward movement is likely to be neutralized by the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs as well as the weekly PP and the monthly S1 located around them. Hence, in nearest perspective the rate most probably will continue moving in southern direction. Such scenario is supported by positive expectations of the upcoming adoption of the tax reform as well as interest rate hike.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
2
XAU/USD ready to test strength of dominant patternXAU/USD ready to test strength of dominant pattern In essence, the buck is actively appreciating against the gold the third day in a row. A short-term bullish movement towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,268.00 was the only exception and was attributed to beginning of drills on the Korean peninsula. But, in general, the pair is driven by optimism over the progress of tax bill. Accordingly, today the rate is expected to continue heading downwards until it makes a rebound from the bottom boundary of a currently active two-month long descending channel near 1,255.00. However, the above market sentiment has a good chance to push the rate even more down. If this breakout happens and the pair gains a foothold below the weekly S2, this might be a sign of existence of another unconfirmed four-month long descending channel.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD trades near upper boundary of dominant channelXAU/USD trades near upper boundary of dominant channel In full accordance with expectations, in first half of the previous trading session the buck continued to trade against the gold in a limbo between the 1,270.50 and 1,276.70 marks that were located just above the lower trend-line of a large dominant ascending channel. However, the subsequent admission of guilt by General Flynn led to 0.76% rise in demand for safe haven metal just in one hour. But as it was an impulse reaction, a combination of the 100- and 200-hour SMAs managed to neutralize the surge. Since there are no impactful news planned for today, the rate is likely to spend this trading day between the 55-hour SMA at 1,279.00 and the above bottom boundary located near 1,270.00. In larger perspective, bulls are expected to take the lead once again, although the pair might prolong consolidation for the next couple of days.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD forms minor symmetrical triangleXAU/USD forms minor symmetrical triangle The second half of previous trading session the exchange rate spent in horizontal movement. A release of better than expected US consumer sentiment data pushed it to the bottom, while another launch of ICBM by North Korea gave a reason to continue the surge. Technically, the southern side was protected by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs that are lying along the lower support line of the rising wedge formation, while the northern side contained the weekly and monthly R1. Although the pair has formed a minor symmetrical triangle, the pair is still expected to make a breakout to top. This assumption is based on market sentiment, which is 52% bullish as well as dominance of the larger pattern. However, there is a need to notice that release of the US Prelim GDP can lead to short-term strengthening of the buck.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD heads towards 1,293.00 againXAU/USD heads towards 1,293.00 again During the previous trading session the exchange rate indeed formed and made a breakout from junior symmetrical triangle pattern. Fortunately, a combined support formed by the 100-hour SMA and the updated weekly PP at 1,286.16 managed to turnaround the pair. In short run, the surge of the yellow metal once again is likely to be halted near the 1,293.00 and 1,295.00 resistance levels, which might lead to formation of a minor ascending triangle. But in larger perspective the pair is projected to reach the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel near the 1,300-1,302.00 marks. In support of this assumption, 55% of traders remain bullish on the given pair. Moreover, since that area is backed up by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level there is little chance that the pair will manage to breakout to the top.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD relentlessly tries to reach monthly R1 at 1,298.00XAU/USD relentlessly tries to reach monthly R1 at 1,298.00 Despite release of better than expected American housing data the bullish pressure prevailed. To certain extent, the surge was supported by a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs in conjunction with the monthly PP. However, the fact that the pair managed to break through the upper boundary of medium-term ascending channel and practically reach the monthly R1 at 1,298.01 suggests that traders were also concerned about discussion and vote on the new tax reform plan. At the moment, it is too early speak about dissolution of the above pattern, as it is possible to simply adjust its boundaries. In that case, the exchange rate is expected to start moving in the opposite direction and trying to reach the weekly PP at 1,287.22, which soon will become additionally strengthened by the rising 55-hour SMA.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD trades below moving averages XAU/USD trades below moving averages Using support provided by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the monthly PP, the exchange rate managed to climb to the weekly R1 located at 1,287.92. In other words the pair has practically managed to form the third reaction high of a four-week long ascending channel. However, a release of widely expected American data created a momentum that enabled bears to return the rate back to the weekly PP at 1,277.10. Hence, all four abovementioned support levels turned into resistance. As they are all concentrated around the 1,279.00 mark, it is unlikely that bulls will manage to push the pair through them without new strong upside momentum. There is a need to notice that the similar situation has already happened in beginning of the week when the gold failed to climb upstairs after a solid strengthening of the buck.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD falls by 1.1% XAU/USD falls by 1.1% The exchange rate dropped by almost 1.1% on Friday in result of 10 minutes trade that moved about 4 million ounces of the precious metal. Nevertheless, the drop was generally anticipated, as it illustrated a breakout from the rising wedge formation on daily chart. In any case, there are two main options for further movement of the pair. As majority of traders remain bullish on the pair, they might try to elevate it to the pre-fall 1,283.90 level. However, the fact road to the north is obstructed by the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA as well as the 61.8% retracement level and the monthly PP, the pair is likely to form either a flag or pennant pattern and then resume the downfall. Such scenario would also be in line with trade pattern theory.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD fluctuates between 1,275 and 1,280XAU/USD fluctuates between 1,275 and 1,280 As there were no breaking news yesterday, recovery of the buck was expectedly neutralized by combined support level set up by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP at 1,273.35. In the meantime, lowering interest for safe haven assets as well as existence of the monthly PP at 1,279.41 did not allow the pair to make a fully-fledged rebound either. For this reason, the rate is expected to continue moving in this limbo until traders receive a proper signal that will allow making a decisive breakout. Most probably such signal will come from China, where Donald Trump is expected to announce conclusion of different deals that would allow narrowing the gap in the US trade balance. In that case, the buck has a chance to reach the bottom edge of the channel in the next one-two days.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GOLD / Meanwhile in TradingViewDynamic trading has an ability to spot whether the resistance that was strong before is the same now. What was strong today may not be strong tomorrow! The trick is to dig it out and read it properly. That being said 1282 was strong, but it may become weak today. Because 11/3 becomes 2 - 12/3 becomes 4 - 12/7 becomes 9. Such inverted combination indicates that previous resistance becomes weak. Therefore today we could have a clear breakout. On Long-Mid Term acc I am not opening additional positions, long orders and pending orders stay the same as they are. But sell from 1282 in the previous Idea was closed at 1271.9 because we couldn't break 1272 downwards by 1$. Normally I would not risk here, but I executed a Long position on Intraday Account 10 minutes before close with an SL 1271.00 because if we break 72 by 1$ target is 67 - 60. But if based on behavior and inverted combinations we have a breakout above 1282 that again can bring some cash. Let's see.
FX:XAUUSD
by TheZabisyu
16
XAU/USD falls to 1,266 amid US PMI dataXAU/USD falls to 1,266 amid US PMI data As it was expected, formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern embodied anticipation of release of the American data on Friday. As the actual results beat expectations, bears managed to strengthen the buck against the yellow metal by 0.84% just in one hour. There is a need to notice two things. First, a rebound near the 1,266.00 mark can be interpreted as a second reaction low a previously undetected junior ascending channel. This assumption implies gradual movement in the northern direction. However, in short term this recovery looks doubtful due to combined resistance that is forming from the weekly PP at 1,273.35 and the falling 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. There is also a need to take into account an existence of a slope that consists of Sep 7, Oct 15 and Nov 2 maximums and is likely to stop the pair from surging until a rebound from the bottom edge of a dominant channel up.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD goes up amid Catalan crisisXAU/USD goes up amid Catalan crisis From technical perspective, the pair had all means to reach the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel. A release of better than expected information about the US GDP growth was projected to give an additional stimulus. However, a declaration of independence by the Catalan parliament and subsequent sack of the regional government by Spanish PM spiked demand for gold. As a result, the new trading session the pair started at the updated weekly PP at 1,274.04. As this barrier is additionally secured by the 55- and 100-hour SMA, the exchange rate is expected to resume movement to the south, trying to reach the weekly S1 at 1,264.23. Fundamental background, generally, supports strengthening of the Dollar. But in the meantime, North Korean and Catalan geopolitical risks might provoke short-term recoveries of the yellow metal.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD breaks from falling wedgeMorning outlook - XAU/USD breaks from falling wedge In result of the previous trading session, the exchange rate made a breakout from the falling wedge formation. The surge was not sharp, as the pair was slowed down by a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. In first half of the day the pair is expected to test the 200-hour SMA near 1,284.77. The strength of this moving average most probably will force the pair to temporarily retreat. In larger perspective the yellow metal might notably recover against the buck, as the above breakout simultaneously signified a rebound from the bottom trend-line a one-month long ascending channel. In that case, there the pair is unlikely to reach the support line of a long term dominant ascending channel in the foreseeable future.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD approaches 100-day SMAMorning outlook - XAU/USD approaches 100-day SMA Previous trading week the exchange rate ended at the intersection of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the bottom boundary of two ascending channels and was ready to make a rebound. However, an unconfirmed victory of the Japan's PM Shinzo Abe and his party strengthened the Dollar and pushed the through this combined support barrier. This fact as well as Donald Trump’s intention to complete tax reform, after successful vote on budget in the Senate, indicates that the pair might continue to move in the southern direction towards the weekly S1 at 1,270.00. On the other hand, the fact that on daily chart the pair is facing the 100-day SMA suggests that the pair is likely to retreat for some while. Plus there is a need to take into account that market sentiment is 53% bullish.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD tests ascending channelMorning outlook - XAU/USD tests ascending channel Due to release of better than expected data on import prices and industrial production the buck appreciated quite sharply against the gold and has practically reached the bottom boundary of a medium ascending channel. From daily perspective it seems that bears are going to try to drag the pair to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96. On hourly chart such scenario is supported by the 200-hour SMA, which is now located above the current market price. However, in order to reach that target the rate has to pass through a combined support set up by the above channel’s boundary and the weekly S1. Although the average market sentiment is 61% bullish, it is unlikely that this support will manage to turn around the exchange rate (unless some unexpected fundamental event will occur).
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD surges in two channelsMorning outlook - XAU/USD surges in two channels Due to increase of the US Consumer Price Index, the yellow metal continued to advance against the buck simultaneously in two ascending channels. On the one hand, the pair is experiencing pressure from the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, which are continuously pushing it to the top. On the other hand, the pair faces a notable resistance level formed by the monthly PP at 1,304.85, which it has already failed to bypass once. There is a need to notice that intersection between the above two channels reminds another pattern, i.e. rising wedge. If this assumption is true, the pair has to make a breakout to the bottom somewhere between the 1,305 and 1,310 marks. However, if macroeconomic background will remain unfavourable, the rate most likely is going to surge to the 1,314 level.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD surges by 1.8%Morning outlook - XAU/USD surges by 1.8% Due to another round of heated rhetoric between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, the yellow meatal appreciated against the buck by 0.93% just in one hour and then continued the surge. As a result, the pair started new trading session above the 200-hour and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which previously formed strong resistance. On the one hand, the rate could continue the soar and try to reach the 1,290.00 mark, using a barrier-free area in its favour. This assumption is additionally supported by the fact that fears over war on the Korean peninsula haven’t gone anywhere yet. On the other hand, after such sudden and massive loss, the buck traders inevitably are going to try to restore lost positions. There is a need to remember that the pair is still expected to reach the bottom edge of dominant channel up.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690