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Xauusd1h

XAU/USD breaks 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levelMorning outlook - XAU/USD breaks 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level Due to release of another set of the US inflation and consumer spending data, which did not change the overall prospect about the upcoming interest rate hike, the buck managed to drag the bullion through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96, thus confirming an existence of a new descending channel. Although this breakthrough happened a little bit earlier than expected, but it still perfectly fit into the general picture, in which the rate was expected to gradually move to the bottom, trying to reach the lower edge of a dominant ascending channel. Nevertheless, during this trading session the pair is likely to make a temporary rebound near the 1,273.14 level, which represents location of the 100-day SMA. If such scenario materializes, the junior channel might transform into a falling wedge.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
1
XAU/USD approaches significant supportMorning outlook - XAU/USD approaches significant support Although previously the pair failed to break through the 1,290.93 level, a pressure from multiple technical indicators eventually pushed it to the bottom. As a result, the exchange rate reached the supposed yesterday’s target at the 1,283.66 mark and represented the weekly S1. In theory, the buck has all means to drag the gold price down to the monthly S1, which is located at the 1,273.91 level and is additionally backed up by the 100-day SMA. However, in order to do that it has to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96. In the short run these barriers a likely to force the pair to make a rebound. But from larger perspective, the pair has to pave the way through them and ultimately reach the bottom edge of the dominant ascending channel.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GOLD / Sell SetupGold is back yet again under 1298. Like mentioned in the previous Idea I didn't like the 92 nonlogical break that should tag 86 as a target. Furthermore, I mentioned how EUR USD can be used with Gold as they both are twins. Experience shows that EU always hit the targets way faster than Gold does. So it can be used as an indicator as well. When I wanted Gold to erase FOMC shakeout EU did it almost the next day, Gold did it later on, and now followed up EU once it calmed down. IF EU starts to go back up, that means Gold will follow sometime later! I have never disclosed this information, so take it for what it's worth. It would be good to tag 1298 before any downward movement. The targets could be 92 - 86! At 86 I would take profit, but there is a possibility for that 1271 ( signaled by the first break of 1304-1298 ) I don't know how long this will fall, but I will wait for NK to shoot down some USA jet so I can maybe catch the ride up to 1348 following intraday. So far anywhere below 98, it is a sell unless proven otherwise. So this is the trade I will be looking to execute over at 2-100k challenge desk. I have updated my status page about it. The Good thing is that now I have a " bumper " first trades are always important to gain some profit. As I have made almost 50% on 2 - 100k account, I can afford to have a losing one! In this challenge, I am not afraid to lose a portion of profit or profit in general! The most important thing is to protect the initial deposit because as long as it is there, the challenge remains intact. That being said If I sell today at 98 and have a 300$ loss if it breaks it and goes up, that will be still okay as I have gained a space for more riskier maneuvers!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TheZabisyu
8
XAU/USD continues to move downwardsMorning outlook - XAU/USD continues to move downwards In accordance with expectations, the surge of the gold price did not last for long, as the pair was turned around by the monthly PP located at the 1,300.00 level, which transformed from support into resistance. At the moment, there are certain signs that the rate is going to try to climb to the top again. However, this new attempt is expected to fail due to presence of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs plus the updated weekly PP, which altogether additionally strengthen the above resistance level. In addition to that, the further deprecation of the bullion against the gold is expected from a daily perspective, as the rate is fluctuating in a junior descending channel, which forms a part of a larger long-term ascending channel.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GOLD / Comprehensive Intraday Analysis / FOMC EditionHello, guys! This one will be very Comprehensive because I will not be able to be in front of chart tomorrow especially during the FOMC. First, 1270 mentioned before! I now say based on my analysis that 1270 is trashed from my view! Or should I make a louder statement? Okay - The Death of 1270! Does it sound better? lol When it comes to my trading, it is very dangerous because I need super right price feed data! For example, I don't know what source Tradingview charts use for Price feed, but this price ( High, Low, Close, Versatile Pivot Lows, and Highs and other prices I need ) is the worse I have ever seen in my life when it comes to trading. If I would use Tradingview price feed for my calculations I would blow my account in no time just because Artificial intelligence would display me absolutely different levels. If High of the previous day is 1310.18, the low of the previous day is 1303.67 and close is 1305.70 I get one picture for the next day, but if High is for example 1310.20 ( 2 cents higher ), Low is for example 1303.66 ( just 1 cent higher ) and close is for example 1305.64 ( 6 cents lower ) I get absolutely different levels and projections for the next day! I did a lot of analyses about 1276.6 and was it really broken that day ( Friday ) and I came to the conclusion that it was not! I trust my Price feed provider more than anything else because while programming all my trading calculators and finding dynamic pivots in the market I used only their price feed ( won't name the company ). They display the L that day was 1276.38 and that means there was no break of 1276.6 by 1$ So I am scraping out 1270 from my trading book! Now about the current view! I have gone through all levels since 1357 on intraday basis ( yes I have a time machine :D ) Let's start by the highest level! Monthly key level 1354 was broken and Versatile Pivot tag targets were given - 1359 / 1364 / 1369 and 1374 Some days before there was a series of Versatile Intraday Pivot Tags and it creates series of next Versatile Pivot tags, which did not arrive, but should. But there was no continuation! Versatile Pivot Tags - Break of Dynamics - Versatile Pivot Tags, to complete the inversed intraday L P C math pattern. Next, 1348 Tendency Pivot ( 1348 D3 with Sub pivot on Top ) not reached! And accumulation calculations show a bullish tendency. Next, Do you remember the day we sold 1334? By Sub Pivot analysis there was 1332.01 sub pivot that corresponded to 1339 ( 2 weeks mathematical cycle pattern ) So after break in 2 weeks should tag the H sub pivot ( which is 1339 in this case ) Next, 1322 the unreached Tendency Pivot on Monday. do you really think Gold can afford to not reach it? I don't think so! Next, We all know this week is important, as well does the market itself. So the first move down in this week, especially on the key level of the month is healthy for Bulls. This part is done ( I will not count everything, there are other small things like sentiment pivot breaks up n down that creates sequence ) but everything stated above is called - Sentiment. It is great to stick the puzzle together to know a general sentiment. I am not falling in love with something, I am just making an educated decision here. Current day - Today the tendency pivot and sub was 1309.2 and 1309.5 after recalculation next sub was 1310.1 Didn't break them and went down, with massive exhaustion signs. Was not even able to tag 1304. I will make intraday post after the close because I need more time to calculate it all and provide you with all pivots and levels to watch out, as well I will explain why I have SL moved to 1298 and what are the reasons for it. One of the reasons for it is the fact that I will not be able to even look at the chart the whole day, I will have the first look in it only like 1 hour after the FOMC. So there is no way I can intraday trade it. About other reasons - after the close today!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by TheZabisyu
43
XAU/USD breaks long-term channel upMorning outlook - XAU/USD breaks long-term channel up Even though information released about the US Core Retail Sales appeared to be worse than analysts expected, the pair did not manage to stay in a long term-ascending channel. It seems that the breakout was triggered by a combined pressure from the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. It should be noted that such outcome was in line with a daily chart, which suggested that the rate was going to continue to plunge at least until the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96. Accordingly, today the pair is likely to continue to move to the bottom, trying to reach the updated weekly S1 at 1,310.77. A recovery of the yellow metal is not expected to follow, as the northern side is reliably secured not only by the above 55- and 100-hour SMAs, but also by the updated weekly PP at 1,325.63 as well as the upper boundary of a new junior channel down.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
1
XAU/USD trades around 1,329.68Morning outlook - XAU/USD trades around 1,329.68 Even though the pair managed to cross the weekly S1 at 1,329.68 yesterday, the pressure of the bears was not strong enough to push it to the bottom edge of a dominant ascending channel. On the other hand, a fully-fledged rebound did not happen as well and is not expected to happen today either. The main reason for such assumption is that the northern side contains too many technical barriers, such as the 200- and 100-hour SMAs as well as the weekly PP at 1,343.70. They could be crossed if the gold had fundamental rationale, but for now it does not. The opposite side, in turn, has an empty area up until the lower support line of the above pattern.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD falls below 1,340.60Morning outlook - XAU/USD falls below 1,340.60 The way the exchange rate started new trading week confirmed that previously it was moving in a medium-term rising wedge. Generally, the pair is expected to gradually move to the bottom, trying to reach the lower trend-line of a senior ascending channel. However, in order to do that the rate will have to cross a combined support level formed by the updated weekly S1 at 1,329.68 and the 200-hour SMA. Even though it sounds like a too strong barrier, the path to the north is also well secured. Namely, it consists of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs as well as the weekly PP at 1,343.70. By the way, the bearish scenario is also confirmed on a daily scale, as last Friday the gold made a rebound from an upper trend-line of a long-term ascending channel.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD moves along 100-hour SMAMorning outlook - XAU/USD moves along 100-hour SMA Instead of trying to reach the monthly R1 at 1,348.36, using the 55-hour SMA as a springboard, the exchange rate stuck at the weekly R1 at 1,339.42 and stayed there until a release of data on the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The American figures appeared to be positive and dragged the pair down by 0.5%. Fortunately for the gold, the 100-hour SMA managed to neutralize the further fall. For this reason, the yellow metal has a good basis to try to get back at least to the above weekly R1. On the other hand, there is a need to take into account that below the 100-hour SMA there is an empty zone up until the junior ascending channel’s bottom trend-line and the 200-hour SMA.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD finally breaks weekly R1Morning outlook - XAU/USD finally breaks weekly R1 The way the yellow metal moved yesterday gives us an important clue for the further analysis. First, the buck failed to drag the pair down through the 55-hour SMA. Second, the gold managed to recover and break through the weekly R1 at 1,339.42. These facts suggest that the today the exchange rate most likely will fail once again to sneak to the bottom. And in the meantime, it has a good chance to try to reach the monthly R1 at 1,348.36, using the abovementioned support. However, both these assumptions hold true until a release of the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT. An effect from this data release might either help the bullion to jump even higher, or will strengthen the buck and push the pair closer to the 100-hour SMA.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD tries to leave channel up Morning outlook - XAU/USD tries to leave channel up A release of the US employment data last Friday predictably stopped the gold from losing value against the buck. In result of the surge that was also strengthened by growing fears over the North Korean crisis, the pair has practically broke through the upper boundary of a dominant ascending channel. From a fundamental side, today the Dollar is not expected to have any news that could motivate it to start to recover. From a technical side, the further surge is obstructed by the updated weekly R1 at 1,339.42 and then by the monthly R1 at 1,348.36. In the meantime, the southern side has a barrier-free area up until the 55- and 100-hour SMAs that are located slightly above the weekly PP a 1,315.75. An average market sentiment point out on a rebound, as 62% of traders remain bearish on the given exchange rate.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD slips to 1,303.75Morning outlook - XAU/USD slips to 1,303.75 Yesterday the American Dollar continued to strengthen against the yellow metal and even managed to form a little descending triangle, whose lower support line matched with the upper boundary of a former long-term ascending channel. In the early Thursday morning the bullion lost another 0.33% and slipped below the 100-hour SMA. On the one hand, a forming downtrend suggests that the plunge can continue at least until the 200-hour SMA near 1,295.80. On the other hand, over the last three days appreciation of the buck was mainly driven by various fundamental events. In contrast, today there will be no significant data releases that could give the Dollar a necessary impulse for the further surge.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD surges above 1,316.50Morning outlook - XAU/USD surges above 1,316.50 During the whole previous trading day, the yellow metal was continuing to appreciate against the US Dollar. The only barrier that managed to stop the surge was a combined resistance level formed by the monthly R2 at 1,315.30 and the weekly R3 at 1,316.51. On the one hand, today the buck should try to restore some of the lost positions. On the other hand, the bullion now has a new, solid support level, which it can use to try to reach a new target, such as the monthly R3 at 1,359.22 or a long-term ascending channel's upper boundary near 1.350.00. Even though the market sentiment remains mixed, the second option in the nearest future seems a more viable scenario. But in the meantime, there is also a need to take into account an effect from escalation of the North Korean crisis and a release of data on the US CB Consumer Confidence today at 14:00 GMT as the subsequent weekly releases.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
XAU/USD heads towards 1,292.91Morning outlook - XAU/USD heads towards 1,292.91 The way the bullion moved yesterday confirmed that a theory that a support area formed by a combination of the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP near 1,284.70 was a stronger barrier than the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. As a result, the pair broke to the top and has practically reached the monthly R1 at 1,292.91. Most probably, today the yellow metal is going to repeat this attempt. Such assumption is supported by an aggregate of technical indicators, which sends a strong buy signal. However, even if the gold will lose some value while waiting for beginning of the Jackson Hole Symposium, the drop is unlikely to go below the above combined support level.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
1
XAU/USD fails to climb above 1,292.91Morning outlook - XAU/USD fails to climb above 1,292.91 As it was expected, previous trading session the yellow metal spent in a steady surge against the American Dollar. However, the soar did not last for long, as it was stopped already at the closest resistance level set up by the monthly R1 at 1,292.91. At the moment, the pair is moving horizontally, being squeezed between two notable barriers. The first is made of a combination of the 100- and 200-hour SMAs as well as the weekly PP at 1,284.70. The other one is made of the above monthly R1, but most importantly of an area located around the 1,296.00 mark, which represents a crossroad of the two junior ascending channels’ upper boundaries. Hence, it seems that the bullion will prefer to move either horizontally, or downwards.
FX:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GOLD / No Spike & Pullback.Just an informative chart for followers. Some were asking why there was no spike downwards like normaly it should be, and why there is yet to be any pullback / correction. Because too heavy shorts were in the gold and too heavy longs in dollar. Checked with one of Bankers that I know who is working with largest banks in the world ( not saying the source ), Yesterday in just one sector their customers had 67$ B in Gold shorts and 115$ B in Dollar longs ( overall ) And it is just one sector of brainwashed sheeple that did blah blah about how rate hike will hit the gold and bring dollar to the moon. So in other words that money is trapped now. Human nature - most of this money will still be in just because they do want gold to pullback to eliminate the loses, but what MM want to happen is get them in hedge positions. They are not that interested in individual/company just closing the position with loss, they are more interested to get them in hedge, that is what they want and what they like, then the real game starts. Huge money is left down there and part of it is still floating. I am not interested in this aspect as I am intraday tech/math trader. Still waiting for 1247 and was building gold longs way before the hike day. But overall this is why I hate fundamentals, I never follow them, and never get involved in them. Just some of the most popular quotes from TV: " If Trump will be a president, Gold will fly to new highs " " If NFP will beat ( Last Friday / March / ) - Gold will be under 1180 in no time " " If they hike the rates, bloodbath in gold " Maybe thats already enough? If this is not working as a confirmation and you still go blah blah about what will happen on this and that ( fundamentals ) all I can say - yeah some people never change. Techs point out the direction ( in most cases ) way before fundamentals arrive. Fundamentals just fill the direction, is what I believe in and bring the volatility that we traders love, so market is not ranging. Now look for excuses why it did not work out and dollar tanked while gold fly up on rate hike. Some are good at that too. Take care peeps.
FX:XAUUSD
by TheZabisyu
6
Gold bugs shot in the headGuys.... As with every $20 rise in price, gold bugs start to throw our the 50k figure... simply not going to happen. Also to add clarity, gold is not a hedge against inflation, rather a hedge against governments. The last idea I posted (see attached), showed this run to the 1250 area before continuing the decline, now it's important to understand that February desperately needed to close above the blue shaded area to show signed any significant strength for bulls. As I'm sure you've already noticed, this did not happen, indicating further decline. We are facing asset inflation, this means Draghi is in an even tougher position trying to keep up the negative interest game that has completely failed over the past 8 years. The question is whether the ECB will be compelled to end this failed policy and raise rates alongside the fed. I've mentioned previously that rates will rise because the Fed will be deprecated when they are faced with the Dow continuing its journey to 30k. Futures markets now have the probability of a hike at just under 80% (79.7), compared with the previous 50% figure only last week. Once we see below 1220 then I must mention, a waterfall will follow. All the best and join our new telegram group via the link below.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TheBanker
21
GOLD / ObamaGoldCareFollow up: Baby bull is not gone, it is accumulating. Recalculations show upside sentiment. It usually comes unexpected. Since central banks and big players follow me on Tradingview, we drive this up together. They follow smart ones. We are long from white zone ( on chart ) Red zone represent a bullish problem zone - intraday, but since gold should met 1247 ( sentiment level ) can we take the red zone out? Maybe yes maybe no, maybe I don't know. Remember the first move, you see yesterday first move straight up in 1250 and sell. Today I would love to see first open price move down to white zone and then up smashing the red zone. 1230 - 1231 intraday become SUPER strong In last post I said bearish close price is in range of 1235.xx - 1237.xx. Below or above this price range is bullish close price. But watch the move on opening, if move is straight up to 1236.xx - 1237.xx be careful. My old good friend Obama is with me on this one, let's screw the Trump!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by TheZabisyu
9
GOLD/ Testing Software / BL4 transitions.Although I am in sell position: There is a long signal generated based on BL4 transitions that gould should reach 1236.2 ( is target ) And breakout higher than that to generate new transition signal. If gold reach 1236.2 and don't break it by 1$ then that would look bearish to me. If gold reach 1236.2 and breakout higher then gold should keep moving up. We can see a bear flag very well can be seen on 1h TF if we refer to structure. I am not taking this long . Just doing analysis and posting it for my personal journal / research. Signal is not that strong but BL4's are great sub transitions and sometimes beat the BIG ones BL12's. Entry for this long would be 1232.6 Good Luck.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by TheZabisyu
1