Geopolitical Hedging vs Monetary Policy: Gold Trading TipsGold prices continued this week's correction trend during Friday's Asian trading session, once falling near the one-week low. Although there was a slight rebound afterward, the overall trend remained in a weak adjustment pattern. This correction was mainly affected by the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve. At this week's policy meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the dot plot showed that only two rate cuts are expected by the end of 2025, while the rate cut expectations for 2026 and 2027 have been postponed. Even so, the US Dollar Index fell after hitting a weekly high, which provided some support for gold prices. In addition, growing trade concerns and escalating tensions in the Middle East have enhanced safe-haven demand, limiting the decline in gold prices.
From the 4-hour chart of gold, the current bullish momentum is dominant, and the resistance near 3375-3380 is clear. The pullback of gold prices has not broken through the upward channel for the time being, and the medium-to-long-term upward structure remains intact. If the Middle East conflict escalates or trade risks intensify, it may trigger a rebound and repair rally in gold prices. The daily chart closed in a doji star pattern, with prices retesting the middle 轨 of the Bollinger Bands, maintaining a volatile downward rhythm. The hourly chart shows significant downward characteristics, and a bearish strategy can be maintained before the resistance is broken. The resistance range is 3375-3380, and the support range is 3340-3345.
XAUUSD
sell@3070-3075
tp:3360-3350
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Xauusd4h
Middle East tensions rise; gold may hit new highs next weekThe Middle East situation has continued to escalate over the weekend, indicating that gold may witness a rally at Monday's opening. On Friday morning, risk aversion surged rapidly, pushing the gold price to around 3,444, followed by a pullback. During the European session, the price quickly retreated to around 3,408 before rebounding—our strategy to go long near 3,410 at the time proved profitable. In the U.S. session, gold mounted a second rally, peaking at around 3,446 before entering a pullback and consolidation phase. However, from a fundamental perspective, the overall trend remains bullish; thus, buying on dips remains the primary trading approach.
From a 4-hour technical view, immediate support lies in the 3,405–15 range, with key support at the recent resistance-turned-support zone near 3,375–80. When gold pulls back, traders should focus on longing near these levels. The critical bullish pivot for short-term traders has shifted up to the 3,345–50 zone; as long as gold holds above this level on the daily time frame, the dip-buying strategy should be maintained.
XAUUSD
buy@3405-3415
tp:3340-3360
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsThe tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to intensify as the second U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier enters the Persian Gulf. Iran's Defense Minister warned that it would attack U.S. bases if conflict broke out. However, the sixth round of talks between the two sides is scheduled for June 15 in Oman, a development that has raised market expectations for a de-escalation of negotiations. Geopolitical risks are time-sensitive, as if the conflict does not escalate, risk aversion may fade rapidly, and gold could give back its gains.
From a 4-hour technical analysis, the short-term support level below focuses on the 3365 area, with the 3340 level as key support. The main strategy remains to go long on pullbacks to these support levels and follow the upward trend. The key bullish threshold lies at the 3320-3325 zone – any pullback before the daily close breaks below this level presents a buying opportunity, maintaining the primary approach of trend following. We recommend prioritizing long positions on corrections and using short positions on rebounds as a supplement. The short-term resistance above is at the 3400-3405 area, while the short-term support below is at the 3360-3350 range.
XAUUSD
buy@3350-3360
tp:3380-3400
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
XAUUSD: Is Bullish Trend Ended? Or It is just beginning big moveAs we previously stated that price can reverse between 3340 to 3350 region, which was a pivotal point for bulls. Price smoothly moved currently trading at 3376 and possibly bullish move continuing towards 3400,3450 and ultimately reaching 3600.
Following the price’s all-time high at $3500, it experienced a sharp decline and failed to maintain that level. A substantial 2400 pips would have resulted in significant losses for many accounts. Initially, it was perceived as a minor correction, with the expectation of further price appreciation. However, this assumption proved incorrect. After reaching an even higher peak, the price invariably undergoes a more substantial correction.
At 3260, substantial bullish volume surged into the market, necessitated by the presence of a fair value gap. Subsequently, the price experienced a decline, reflecting the prevailing bearish trend, which favoured the bears. However, at 3200, a pivotal level representing a discounted price point, bull volume surged. This powerful bullish impulse propelled the price to 3432, ultimately confirming the bullish trend. AB=CD there recurring pattern emerged weekly. When the price reached the 3432 level as a fair value gap, the CD pattern commenced.
AB=CD we have identified a recurring pattern. It appears to be an equal move in any direction, and it has manifested precisely as anticipated. We were aware that the price would reject at 3120, and it did so accordingly. Currently, the market is in our favour. Upon market opening, it exhibited a positive gap, propelling the price to 3450. However, it subsequently declined, reaching 3384.
Presently, we find ourselves in the accumulation phase, poised for distribution. This distribution is anticipated to be substantial, potentially leading to another record high, potentially reaching 3650.
Moving forward, the price could continue towards our target from its current position. Alternatively, there exists a possibility that it may drain the sell-side liquidity and reverse from 3360-3370.
Our take-profit levels are set at 3450, 3490, 3520, and finally, 3600. When entering the market, it is advisable to employ a short time frame. It is important to note that this analysis is merely our opinion, and market conditions may deviate from expectations.
We extend our best wishes for success and safe trading. If you wish to demonstrate your support, you may consider liking, commenting, or sharing this analysis with others.
Sincerely,
Team Setupsfx_
6/20 Gold Analysis and Trading SignalsGood evening, everyone!
After gold rallied to around 3388 yesterday, it began to retrace gradually, providing solid returns for our sell-side strategy.
As of now, gold has dipped to a session low near 3339. On the 30-minute chart, the MACD has formed a bullish crossover, and price has broken above the Bollinger mid-band, indicating short-term bullish momentum. The candle structure supports a potential rebound, but strong overhead resistance remains.
Key resistance comes from the 1H MA60 around 3371, and gold still trades within a broader bearish trend on the daily timeframe. While bulls may attempt a recovery, a complete trend reversal remains unlikely unless significant bullish catalysts emerge.
Hence, our strategy continues to favor selling near resistance levels, while cautiously considering long entries near well-defined supports.
📌 Trading Plan (VIP Focus):
✅ Sell Zone: 3370–3383
✅ Buy Zone: 3338–3321
✅ Flexible Trade Range: 3366-3349
Gold Broke Out – Another Drop Loading?OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD Gold is attempting a rebound but faces strong resistance near $3,364–$3,368, where previous support converges with the descending trendline (TL1). A clear rejection here could resume the bearish momentum.
Technically, the price is hovering just below the TL1 resistance. The zone around $3,368 is critical — if bulls fail to reclaim this area, we could see a move back toward the $3,326 support, with a deeper target near weekly support at $3,310.
📉 A rejection around current levels = high probability drop
📈 Break and hold above TL1 = potential short-term reversal
🧠 Macro Check:
Despite intensifying Middle East tensions (Israel-Iran conflict escalating, Trump weighing intervention), gold remains under pressure. The Fed’s hawkish hold, persistent inflation, and a strong dollar continue to weigh on bullion in the near term.
🔍 Key Levels:
Resistance: $3,364–$3,368 (structure + TL1)
Support: $3,326 / $3,310
Bias: Bearish below $3,368
Setup Idea: Watch for rejection near resistance for short setups toward $3,326 and $3,310
Fed Rate Decision: Gold's 3,400 Threshold as Bull-Bear DivideToday, the market has consolidated in a range throughout the day, with neither price direction nor volatility breaking through the range. However, our trading approach proved accurate: short positions were initiated near 3,400 during rebounds, and long positions were entered near the key level of 3,370 during pullbacks. Investors following our strategy have achieved profits from both directions. With limited price movement currently, the Fed's interest rate decision due to land in an hour will become the core variable dominating the market trend for the rest of the month.
Currently, gold prices continue to trade below the 3,400 threshold, maintaining a weak market structure. The 3,400 level serves as a key watershed between bulls and bears, and the validity of its breakthrough will determine the trend inflection point: if prices effectively hold above 3,400 after the data release, it indicates that gold will break out of its weak pattern, with the potential for an accelerated rally ahead. Conversely, if prices remain suppressed below 3,400, it is highly likely to trigger further downward exploration. It is recommended to closely monitor the breakthrough signal at the 3,400 threshold after the data release, using this as the operational basis for trend switching.
XAUUSD
buy@3370-3380
tp:3400-3420-3450
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Gold Spot Price Analysis (4-Hour Chart)4-hour candlestick chart for the Gold Spot price in U.S. Dollars (XAUUSD). The chart shows a recent downward trend with a notable dip, followed by an upward correction. A technical analysis pattern is highlighted within a green rectangle, indicating a potential bullish reversal. The current price is $3,374.76, with a decrease of $13.40 (-0.40%). The chart provides insights into short-term price movements and potential trading opportunities.
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsOn Wednesday, the morning strategy suggested going long on gold at 3,375-3,365, perfectly seizing the pullback low and rebounding to the 3,400 level as expected. Today, there is also the Fed interest rate decision. Before the data release, short positions can be taken if the 3,400-3,405 level remains unbroken. If the 3,405-3,410 level is broken, we will continue to be bullish. Gold is in short-term oscillation, so try not to chase the market. Wait for a good entry opportunity. The upper level has also been repeatedly contested recently, and the Fed data is likely to break the range after its release.
For gold, continue to adopt an oscillating approach. In the 4H cycle, it is operating below the middle band. The short-term range is 3,405-3,365. If it breaks above 3,405, it can continue to target 3,420 and 3,450. Conversely, if it breaks below 3,365, it can fall to 3,350. In operation, prioritize long positions with short positions as a supplement, and adjust the strategy when a breakout occurs.
XAUUSD
buy@3370-3375
tp:3390-3400-3420
sell@3395-3400
tp:3380-3370
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) 4-Hour Chart4-hour candlestick chart displays the price movement of Gold Spot (XAU) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) from June 4 to June 18, 2025. The current price is 3,391.79, reflecting a +3.61 (+0.11%) change. The chart highlights a recent upward trend with a notable peak, followed by a slight pullback. Key price levels are marked, ranging from 3,320.00 to 3,420.14, with technical analysis indicators such as a resistance zone (pink) and a support zone (light green) overlaid.
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsOn Tuesday, gold dipped to around $3,374 in the early trading session, then rebounded to the intraday high. In the U.S. trading session, it is currently quoted at about $3,388, approaching the psychological level of $3,400. From the 4-hour chart of gold, the current upward momentum remains intact. The support below is focused on around $3,350, and the strong support is highlighted in the $3,350-$3,330 area, which is also the position of the 5-week moving average. Only by breaking the $3,350 area is there hope to reverse the trend and fall completely. If it does not break here, the bulls may still repeat.
Regarding the current trend, gold tends to continue to test the bottom and then rebound, maintaining a large range of sweeping. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long when gold rebounds to the vicinity of 3370-3360, with the target looking at the 3490-3400 range. The short strategy is to go short near 3400, with the target looking at the 3370-3350 line.
XAUUSD
buy@3370-3360
tp:3390-3400
sell@3395-3400
tp:3370-3350
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) 4-Hour Chart4-hour price movement of Gold Spot (XAUUSD) against the U.S. Dollar, covering the period from late June to early July 2025. The current price is $3,381.09, reflecting a slight decrease of $7.09 (-0.21%) over the period. The chart includes candlestick patterns, with a highlighted consolidation zone and a recent downward trend. Key price levels such as $3,401.46, $3,389.38, and $3,340.00 are marked, indicating potential support and resistance zones.
Gold fluctuates under pressure. Can it break out?Information summary:
The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered the fifth day, Tel Aviv air raid alarms are frequent, and the fire of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated the panic of energy transportation, and safe-haven buying supports gold prices;
Trump's contradictory statement of "peace talks + toughness" has exacerbated the market's differences on the direction of the conflict, and risk aversion has fluctuated repeatedly.
In the early Asian session, spot gold fluctuated narrowly at $3,375, continuing the stalemate under the geopolitical conflict and the game of the US dollar. As the "king of safe havens", gold has recently bottomed out and rebounded based on the tension in the Middle East, and the current price fluctuates around 3,395.
Market analysis:
The four-hour chart shows that the moving average is sticking to wait for a breakthrough in the direction, and the short-term moving average is sticking to $3,380. The RSI indicator fluctuates around 50, suggesting that a breakthrough will be ushered in after a narrow consolidation; the lower rail support of the rising channel moves up to $3,370, and if it fails, it may test $3,350.
At present, the price is repeatedly testing the resistance position of 3400. If the price stands above this position, it may continue to rise to around 3430. If it breaks the support of 3370 US dollars, it will look to 3360 US dollars.
Operation strategy:
Short near 3400, stop loss 3410, profit range 3370-3365.
If the price falls back to around 3370, you can try to go long, and the profit point is around 3390.
Short Opportunity on XAU/USD: Fed & Conflict Drive Next MoveTVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD XAU/USD is showing multiple rejections at the key resistance confluence of the trendline (TL1) and the $3,396–$3,405 zone. Price remains capped below this level while supported by TL2, with downside potential toward $3,354 and $3,326 if bearish pressure persists. A short setup is in play: entry at $3,396, stop at $3,411, and targets at $3,354 and $3,326, offering a favorable 1:2.97 risk–reward. Invalidation occurs on a 4H close above $3,411, which could open the path to $3,450+. Geopolitical risk remains elevated as the Israel–Iran conflict enters day six, with airstrikes near Tehran and speculation of U.S. involvement following President Trump’s emergency security meeting. Meanwhile, the upcoming Fed decision is key; while no rate move is expected, markets are focused on the updated dot plot and Powell’s tone amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Long-term support for gold is reinforced by a World Gold Council survey showing 95% of central banks expect global reserves to rise, with a record 43% planning to increase holdings. Short-term bias remains cautiously bearish while below resistance, but any dovish Fed surprise or escalation in conflict may reverse momentum.
Resistance : $3,396 , $3,405
Support : $3,354 , $3,325, $3,320
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsGold showed a pullback after hitting a high yesterday, with a daily decline of nearly 70 USD. The daily candlestick pattern completely engulfed the previous day's gains and closed bearish. Combined with the current signals of geopolitical tensions, today's market is expected to be dominated by broad-range consolidation. From the 4-hour cycle perspective, the price broke below the middle Bollinger Band with consecutive bearish candles last night and continued to decline after being suppressed in the early morning, with technicals pointing to a consolidative and bearish pattern.
The key pivot level today is at 3,405: if the market effectively stabilizes above this level, the upper resistance will test 3,420 and 3,430 in sequence; conversely, if the suppression at 3,405 holds, the price is likely to repeatedly test the support at 3,380 and further dip to the 3,370-3,360 zone. It is recommended to wait for the decline momentum to clarify before initiating long positions, maintaining an overall range-trading strategy.
XAUUSD
buy@3375-3380
tp:3390-3400-3420
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
3365-3400: The Battle Zone for Bulls and BearsCurrently, gold trades at 3386 📊. Key levels: resistance 3400, support 3365 🛑. Watch real-time news (Fed speeches 🎙️, Middle East geopolitics 🌍), which can shift bull-bear balance 🐂🐻.
Long setup: If price drops to 3365-3370 with bullish news (Fed dovish 🕊️, geopolitical tension 🔥) and bullish K-lines (long lower shadows 🕯️), go long 💰. Stop below 3360 🛑. Target 3390-3400 🎯. Take partial profits if news cools 📦.
Short setup: If price rebounds to 3400-3405 with bearish news (strong US data 📈, geopolitical ease 🧘) and bearish K-lines (long upper shadows 🕯️), go short 💰. Stop above 3410 🛑. Initial target 3380-3375 🎯. Extend to support if bearish news persists 🔍.
Gold Trading Strategies
sell@ 3400-3405
tp:3380-3370
buy@3365-3370
tp:3390-3400
Professional trading strategies are pushed daily 📊
Lock in precise signals amid market fluctuations 🚀
Confused about market trends? Stuck in strategy bottlenecks?
Real-time strategies serve as your "trading compass" 🌐
From trend analysis to entry/exit points, dissect market logic comprehensively
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XAUUSD:Touching $3500 One More Time Gold is currently extremely bullish and we expect price to touch 3500$ region one more time before it may reverse. you can set your own target based on your risk. Gold will remain volatile in coming weeks and we want all of you to trade safe.
Good luck and trade safe.
Team Setupsfx_
XAUUSD:[GOLD]: First Drop And Then Reverse! Comment Your Views! Gold touched $3350 but was rejected at that level, dropping around 3288. The price shows some minor support at this region, which we’re currently monitoring. If it breaks through, it could touch our buying zone, reversing the trend. You can set three targets based on your own analysis and bias. Please use accurate risk management while trading.
If you’d like to contribute, here are a few ways you can assist us:
- Like our ideas
- Comment on our ideas
- Share our ideas
Team Setupsfx_🚀❤️
#XAUUSD[GOLD]: Massive Boost For Buyers, Incoming More Volume! Gold has been moving as expected in our previous chart. We anticipate a smooth bull market in the coming days, with a target price region of 3400$. There are three specific targets you can aim for.
If you’d like to contribute, here are a few ways you can help us:
- Like our ideas
- Comment on our ideas
- Share our ideas
Team Setupsfx_🚀❤️
#XAUUSD[GOLD]:At Critical Level, Bullish Swing Is Very LikelyHey There Everyone,
So, gold prices took a bit of a dip, hitting 3250 gold. But guess what? They bounced back like a rubber ball and reached 3332! And here’s the exciting part: they broke through that pesky bearish trend line. This means they’re probably going to retest that line to confirm the trend.
Right now, it looks like they’re at a potential retest point, and that’s where things could get really interesting. If strong bullish volume comes in, the price could skyrocket! There are three possible targets here: 3332, 3362, and 3420.
Now, here’s something important to keep in mind: next week, there are some big news and events coming up that could totally shake things up in the gold market. And let’s not forget about price manipulation. If someone tries to mess with the price, it could drop back to 3250 and then reverse course. So, it’s crucial to have backup plans in case of any unexpected twists.
The US dollar is also going to be all over the place due to upcoming news, which could disrupt the gold market and other currencies. So, it’s best to trade cautiously today and next week. The price can be a bit unpredictable, so take your time to do your own analysis and assess your risk before making any moves.
Good luck and trade safely! We wish you all the best in your trading journey!
Cheers,
Team Setupsfx_
XAUUSD:06/06/2025 Update! Gold experienced a decline to 3314 following the release of unexpectedly strong NFP data. However, this decline is unlikely to lead to further price drops below 3314. This is primarily due to the ongoing turmoil within the president’s own political party, which is only just beginning to unfold and will likely intensify in the coming weeks.
Before making any trading decisions, it is advisable to conduct your own analysis. Additionally, the current price action has established an AB=CD pattern, where the price has successfully reversed from point ‘d’. This pattern suggests that waiting for the price to break out could be a prudent strategy for a safe entry.
Three targets have been reasonably set, with the potential to reach target two. However, the target three remains uncertain. The total potential profit from this idea is approximately 1300 pips.
It is also important to monitor the DXY closely. We recommend waiting for the price to complete its bullish correction before taking an entry on gold.
We sincerely hope that this analysis proves beneficial. Please consider liking, commenting, and sharing this post to encourage us to provide more such insights.
Best regards,
Team Setupsfx_
XAUUSD: Another Important Update On Gold Prices! We recently posted an idea analysis on Gold, but our first entry was invalidated due to the heavy sell-off. We expect a smooth move from the current price point. However, please remember that the market conditions will remain volatile and uncertain due to important economic data being published tomorrow.
Good luck, trade safely!
Team Setupsfx_
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsOn Friday, the strategy of going long on gold at relatively low levels was once again precisely fulfilled. The morning strategy clearly suggested opening long positions within the range of 3400 - 3410. As expected, the price of gold once again surged to around the 3445 level, and profits were successfully secured once more.
The hourly chart of gold shows a volatile upward trend. Driven by risk aversion in the early morning, it surged rapidly but fell back for correction after hitting resistance at 3444 during the European session. Before the U.S. session, it stabilized at 3412 and rallied again. The previous large bearish candlestick was more of a minor shakeout—after washing out floating chips, it has now regained its upward momentum.
Maintain a strongly bullish approach for now. The 3415-3410 range forms a key support zone, and long positions can be continued above this level. Upper resistance remains at 3445-3450; a valid breakout could lead to further gains toward 3475 and beyond. However, be aware that a sustained rally may trigger a pullback due to overbought indicators or divergences. For operations, consider going long near support and exercise caution when chasing highs near resistance
XAUUSD
buy@3405-3315
tp:3430-3450
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Gold: Monitor Middle East Developments Over the WeekendAmid escalating tensions in the Middle East, risk-off sentiment surged,
sending gold soaring past the 3414 resistance and peaking near 3450,
before retracing and rebounding off the 3414 support zone.
⚠️ While this was a high-volume breakout, it was news-driven,
so keep in mind:
📌 If tensions ease over the weekend, a pullback on Monday is highly likely
📌 If tensions escalate, another bullish run would be expected
—
🔍 Technical Outlook:
🧭 4H chart: 9-count nearing completion — overbought signals building
🧭 2H chart: MACD showing early signs of a bearish crossover; potential divergence forming
🧭 1D chart: Breakout with volume confirms bullish trend, but risk of short-term correction remains
—
📌 Key Price Zones:
🔺 Resistance: 3468 – 3487 – 3500
🔻 Support: 3414 (critical) – 3400 – 3392
⚠️ If broken, next downside targets: 3378 – 3367
—
📈 Strategy Suggestions:
As we head into Monday:
✅ Consider selling on rallies if geopolitical tensions ease
✅ If tensions worsen, follow the momentum — but watch for reversal signs