Gold Price Analysis December 16Fundamental Analysis
Expectations of a hawkish Fed rate hike next week boosted the US dollar and US Treasury yields on Wednesday, leading to a corrective pullback in gold prices from multi-month highs.
US President-elect Donald Trump's tax plan will add to inflation and delay the Federal Reserve's easing policy.
Technical Analysis
Gold is in a strong bearish channel with 2636 being the first target of the downtrend and 2626 the next. The recovery to be considered a trend reversal only when gold closes above the 2691 area. Gold is still considered a downtrend if it faces the 2672 and 2691 port areas. Pay attention to price reaction to have the best trading strategy
Trading attention zone
BUY zone 2626-2624 Stoploss 2620
SELL zone 2673-2675 Stoloss 2678
Xauusdanalysis
xauusdGold (XAU/USD) M15 Chart Analysis 🟡
We’ve got a tight triangle consolidation forming with equal highs around 2655 and higher lows creeping up. This setup signals buyers are gradually stepping in, but sellers are still holding the line at resistance.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 2655 🚀 — A breakout here with volume could send price to the 2665-2670 zone.
Support: 2640 🛑 — If it breaks, we might see a dip towards 2630.
Volume Note:
Volume is shrinking as price coils—classic pre-breakout behavior. Keep an eye on which side gives way first; volume confirmation is key.
Trade Idea:
Long: Break and close above 2655 ✅
🎯 Target: 2665-2670
🛑 Stop: Below 2640
Short: Break below 2640 ❌
🎯 Target: 2630
🛑 Stop: Above 2655
Conclusion:
Buyers look stronger with those higher lows, but don’t jump in blind—wait for the breakout and volume confirmation! 📊
Gold Market Weekly Analysis | XAUUSD Price action OutlookGold prices experienced a nearly 1% decline last week, largely influenced by a series of US economic data releases. Mixed signals from consumer and producer inflation reports kept markets cautious, but the lower-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims report strengthened investor confidence in a potential Federal Reserve rate cut at its December 17-18 meeting. Currently, traders are assigning a 93% probability to a 25 basis points (bps) rate reduction.
Next week promises to be eventful, with key US economic releases such as S&P Global Flash PMIs, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and the core PCE Price Index, alongside the pivotal FOMC policy decision. These will play a critical role in shaping gold's trajectory.
In this video, I dive deep into the XAUUSD chart, breaking down technical and fundamental factors to help us navigate the upcoming trading week.
📢 Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a professional before making trading decisions.
#GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #GoldPriceForecast #FOMC #RateCut #ForexTrading #MarketOutlook
The downward space opens up. Trend analysisGold closed slightly higher last week, and gave up most of the gains of the previous four days at the end of the week. The 10/7-day moving average of the short-term four-hour chart opened downward at 65/70, and the RSI indicator was running on the lower track of the axis in the hourly chart and the four-hour chart, and the Bollinger band was running on the middle and lower track. Technically, the weak adjustment of gold on Friday changed the extremely strong gold bull structure. Wait for the rebound high to sell at the beginning of this week.
Gold bulls do not have any strong rebound now, and the short-term trend of gold is still short. The rebound is an opportunity for shorts. Gold is waiting for a rebound to continue to short. The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to enter a downward dead cross pattern. If it continues to diverge downward, the gold short position will be further opened. Gold hit a new low in the Asian session. The previous low of gold at 2675 is now forming a counter-pressure. Sell at highs below the rebound of 2675. You can go short near 2670.
First support: 2640, second support: 2633, third support: 2620
First resistance: 2660, second resistance: 2672, third resistance: 2680
Trading strategy:
BUY: 2636-2638
SELL: 2670-2672
XAU / USD "GOLD vs USD" Metal Market Heist Plan on BullishHola! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
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Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry should be in pullback.
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XAU / USD "GOLD vs USD" Metal Market Heist Plan on BullishHola! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
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Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry should be in pullback.
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 4H timeframe
Target 🎯 : 2800.00
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Gold Analysis==>>Rising again==>>Short term!!!Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) started to decline from the Resistance zone($2,740-$2,708) , as I expected in the ✅ previous post ✅.
Gold is moving in the Support zone($2,670-$2,653) and near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Gold is completing wave 5 .
Also, Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys .
I expect Gold to start rising again from the PRZ and attack the Downtrend line ; if it breaks, we can expect further pumps .
⚠️Note: We should expect further decline if Gold breaks the Support zone($2,670-$2,653).⚠️
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
XAU/USD 16-20 December 2024 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 01 December 2024.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks.
Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range.
Price is anticipated to trade down towards either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
-> Swing -> Bullish.
-> Internal -> Bullish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 01 December 2024
Price Action Analysis:
Price has shown a reaction from discount of internal 50% EQ. Currently price has been unable to target the weak internal high
Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to target weak internal high, priced at 2,790.170 However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). Price has yet to tap into Daily demand.
Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase.
Price Action Analysis:
Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity,
for two possible reasons.
1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high.
2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855.
Intraday Expectation:
Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
Gold on the Rise: Is $2700 Within Reach?Hey Realistic Traders, Will OANDA:XAUUSD Return to the $2700 Territory? Let’s Dive In...
In the H4 timeframe, Gold rebounded decisively above the 0.618 Golden Ratio Fibonacci level, marking the end of the minor correction within the broader bullish trend in the Daily timeframe. This move laid the foundation for a bullish flag pattern to emerge.
The breakout from the flag pattern was confirmed with the formation of two bullish Marubozu candlesticks. At the same time, the MACD indicator signaled a bullish crossover, adding further confidence to the case for continued upward momentum.
Given these strong technical signals, I foresee an upward movement toward the first target at 2715.097. Upon reaching this level, a minor pullback is likely before the rally gains traction again, pushing toward the second target at 2758.970.
However, this bullish outlook hinges on the price maintaining support above the critical stop-loss level at 2613.372.
Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Gold".
XAU/USD Long imminent lookout! back up to 2690My analysis this week for gold is to look for potential imminent buys at this demand if i see a correct confluences play out on the lower time frame as well as the sweep of that sunday asia low. Once that happens i will look price to retace in this area back up to an area of supply.
As price has changed character the downside and broke structure i see now heading down more. i will wait for price to make a correction and fill imbalance above then continue to drop off around the area of that 6 hr supply zonne
Confleunces for XAUUSD BUYS are as follows:
- Price Changed character to the upsice on the higher time frame.
- Price swept the top side liquidity off last week consolidation and letf the bottom which still hasn't been taken.
- Price needs to retrace to continue its bearish course.
- DXY corresponding slightly as well.
P.S. I am interested in shorts but the opportunity as of were current price is, isn't ideal hence why I'm looking for short term buys to sell. Have a great trading week, Q4 soon coming to an end, lets gooooo!!!
Gold at support- But is too obvious... (update)In my morning video analysis, I noted that after yesterday's strong bearish engulfing candle, the most likely scenario was a continuation of the down move, with the next support level identified around the 2660-2665 zone.
The price indeed reached this area, but I believe this support is too obvious and likely to break, instead of a meaningful reversal.
At this point, it is very risky to trade against the flow.
A more prudent approach would be to wait for rallies and consider selling at higher levels.
Gold is in the Bearish DirectionHello Traders
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Gold pattern analysis, profit of 300% this weekGold closed with a big negative yesterday, and the shape showed a Yin-enveloping Yang engulfing shape. In the short term, there was a certain turning point under pressure, and it also formed a double top after piercing the previous high of 2721; the market is still relatively cunning, and there is a large-scale strangulation of long and short positions back and forth. Basically, this behavior has occurred frequently this year; whether it is gold or silver, the slope of the channel that has been forced to rise all the way recently is steep, so the sustainability will not be too long, and it is easy to usher in a large-scale dive in the end. It is basically unlikely to refresh the historical high of 2790 this year, and for early 2025, bad news will come one after another, and the pressure and space may be greater and more lasting; although the overall bull market bull trend has not changed, there is still a need for adjustment in the short term or there is a long period of wide fluctuations, which is also a kind of correction; today's daily level short-term retracement pays attention to the 10-day moving average of 2662, which is also a second retracement to confirm the trend line of 2790-2721. Once it breaks down, it will point to the middle track of 2642;
The latest technical analysis of gold, enjoy the profitFrom a technical point of view, after Thursday's decline, the daily line closed negative for the first time after three consecutive positive lines, and closed with a large negative line before the upper Bollinger track. This pattern is very obvious, confirming the overall weakening, and there will be continuous room for decline. At least look at the support point of the middle Bollinger track 2660 first, and then look at the support of the lower track 2600 after breaking. Therefore, the actual intraday decline prospect is still very large. Look at the recent intraday changes, and try to focus on rebounding high altitudes. After the decline of the small cycle H4, the Bollinger is also in a closing state. It rebounded at 2675 at midnight, but the downward space is not enough. The support of the lower track is near 2660. Therefore, the intraday rebound can still be shorted. First see whether the price of 2660 breaks. If it does not break during the day, it will be regarded as a slow decline. If it breaks, it can form an opening of the lower Bollinger track and get out of the unilateral decline. Therefore, the recent decline of gold in this cycle has just begun. Don't think that you can go long after a wave of decline. In the short-term performance, gold has rebounded, and the intraday suppression should be around 2695. If it rebounds in the Asian and European sessions, you can short it. The intraday downside targets are 2675 and 2660. Overall, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to short on rebounds, supplemented by buying on dips. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2695-2700 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2660-2655 support.
A good value Gold buy, following GBPUSD sell
XAUUSD folded under pressure from GBPUSD sell off about 2 or 3 hours ago following Great Britains's GDP results which did not support the Pound but rather the USD.
Price wound back from mid 90s to about 70s (early 70s). A double bottom has formed on TF's 5m through to 2hr. Basically, gold found support at yesterdays selling low and support level.
2673 at the time of writing. On a supported level with multiple double tops. But there may be continued selling into GBPUSD which could drag gold lower. But I think it will hold at these levels > 2670. SL a must in such volatility around 2667. TP at or near todays's high back to mid 90s.
Note: Trading gold is risky, but the gold price should be buzzing along higher next week on any impending US interest rate reduction, which you've got to realise is almost in the bag of occurring and at least 0.25% reduction.
Guys second chart is a look at the last reversal trade from RSI & Stochastics Momentum Index for a bit of light n shade from the usual Stochastic's, which the plain one is as accurate as the RSI & run for the hills on these newer Stochastic's and RSI's which hog all of your screen and do not deliver accurately. Settings can be crunched but who has the time for that.
Follow this chart to the last vertical broken yellow line to see how this trade gave 10,000 pips not 100. Cheers, Chris easy_explosive_trading on X.
In this instance, you would need to wait for RSI to push through the 30 RSI level and wait until your candle close ideally, it depends on whether you've climbed back over key levels for confirmation. The SMI you'll be looking for the pretty pink line to turn upwards and cross above -40. Good luck on 10,000 pips. It happened last time.
Turning to long goldBros, today gold continued to retreat, and the current lowest has reached around 2665, and the short trend of gold is obvious.
So where will gold fall? Should we continue to short gold? In fact, from the perspective of the gold structure, the 2665-2655 area is the bottom position of the rising relay in the rising structure, so this area plays an important supporting role. If gold cannot fall below this area, then gold's current downward trend is merely a correction to the rising trend. Therefore, gold may still rebound with the help of the 2665-2655 area, or it may hit the 2680-2690 area again.
So in terms of short-term trading, when most people are still shorting gold, I quietly started to go long on gold! Brors, let's wait and see! If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
GOLD - at Master of all regions, stay sharp#GOLD - perfect move as per our analysis and now market at his master region, that is today major and key supporting area.
That will be master of all regions, from 26563 to 2667
keep close that region and dont short now until market hold it.
only only short below that on confirmation.
stay sharp
good luck
trade wisely
XAU/USD 13 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024. Awaiting candle closure to confirm bullish iBOS
Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.
Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price Action Analysis:
Yesterday's intraday analysis played out with price targeting weak internal low at priced 2,700.810.
Price has just printed a further bearish iBOS.
Following bearish iBOS we expect a pullback. Current CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
We are now trading within an internal high and fractal low. You will note internal range has been significantly narrowed, however, price could print lower which would extend the depth of the internal range
Intraday Expectation:
Price is expected to indicate pullback initiation by printing a bullish CHoCH.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
Session trade, XAUUSD, Short setup in H4👋Hello Traders,
Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H4 timeframe ICT Short setup in
XAUUSD for session trade (a couple of hours)
Basically it is in ranging market in D1 chart.
So our idea, today will touch the middle zone of the Daily Range.
Range: $2658 to $2665
Here is a swing trade idea (since it is near support surface, we should use small lot size)
Please refer to the details Stop loss, Supply Zone,open for take profit.
Next Short entry after retracement in any session.
For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview.
Have a good day!
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