Continue to short gold after the reboundAfter sideways consolidation, gold chose to move downward again, and the current situation and direction are very clear. 2956 has basically been confirmed as the current stage high, so in the New York trading session, we only need to find the right time and point to short gold.
However, although the decline of gold just now was strong, it still seemed a little hesitant when facing the low point last night. There is still a certain support in the intraday, and the gold price will more or less rebound. The resistance area above is the 2915-2925 zone, so I will short gold with the resistance of this area, and gold will definitely touch the 2880-2870 zone or even lower during this round of decline.
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Xauusdanalysis
Gold Drops Hard – Will 2880 Be the Next Support Test? Yesterday was marked by significant volatility in Gold.
After reaching an intraday high of 2945, the price plummeted more than 500 pips, hitting a low of around 2890.
As I highlighted in my previous analysis, 2930 was a key pivot level, and breaking below it triggered an accelerated decline. This level has now turned into resistance and was already tested overnight.
Looking ahead, this correction may not be over yet and the price could drop below 2900 again and we could see a test of the 2880 horizontal support level.
I remain bearish on Gold as long as the 2930–2935 zone remains intact. 📉
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Gold Price Drops Towards Key Support ZoneGold Price Drops Towards Key Support Zone
As shown on the XAU/USD chart, the price of gold per ounce has already fallen by more than 1% today. This bearish sentiment may be driven by:
→ A strengthening US dollar, influenced by President Trump’s plans to impose international trade tariffs.
→ Market positioning ahead of key US economic data releases, including GDP growth figures and the Core PCE Price Index.
→ A sharp decline in China’s gold imports via Hong Kong—the country’s main gateway for bullion purchases—which fell to a near three-year low in January.
Technical Analysis of XAU/USD Chart
Gold price fluctuations have formed an upward trend channel, marked in blue, with the current decline bringing the price close to its lower boundary.
Key levels to watch:
→ $2,922 has shifted from support to resistance.
→ $2,876, which previously acted as resistance, may now serve as a support level.
Given these factors, the intersection of the lower boundary of the blue channel and the $2,876 support level could trigger a rebound, offsetting some of the bearish momentum seen so far.
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XAUUSD BUY AND SELLGold price is unable to hold on to the modest gains booked on Wednesday as buyers and sellers enter a tug-of-war situation early Thursday, courtesy of the uncertainty around US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans and lingering US economic concerns.
Gold price outlook appears more or less the same from a short-term technical perspective.
So long as the Gold price defends the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,890 and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits above 50, the bullish potential will likely remain intact.
Gold buyers could retest the all-time highs at $2,956 on acceptance above the previous day’s high of $2,930. The next topside barriers are seen at the $2,970 resistance and the $3,000 threshold.
However, if sellers crack the 21-day SMA at $2,890 on a daily candlestick closing basis; the downside could open toward the February 14 low of $2,877.
The last line of defense for Gold buyers is at the $2,850 psychological barrier.
🔥Buy Gold
$2880 -> $2876
SL $2870
TP 1->$2885 >2->$2890 >3->$2900
🔥Sell Gold
$2941 -> $2938
SL $2950
TP 1->$2935 >2->$2925 >3->$2910
2025.02.24 GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOKHello traders,
Gold is currently in a very extreme market situation. One can imagine the development process of a black swan event as follows:
- **Liquidity Tightening** → Institutions sell paper gold
- **Physical Hoarding Wave** → Bank vaults are overflowing
- **Futures Delivery Obstacles** → COMEX premiums rise
- **Increased Risk Aversion** → Physical gold bars are out of stock
- **Final Outcome**: Paper gold prices drop + physical gold premiums continue to rise!
Currently, there are three major challenges looming over gold prices, facing a critical decision.
**1. Dual Impact of Global Liquidity Tightening**
The tsunami of U.S. debt is coming: Starting last Thursday, the U.S. is issuing $183 billion in ten-year treasuries all at once, equivalent to draining a large reservoir from the market. Banks and institutions must free up huge cash amounts to buy bonds, directly leading to less liquidity in the market. It's worth noting that at this time last year, the weekly bond issuance was around $50 billion; now it has tripled, and bond yields are likely to be pushed above 4.4%.
On the other hand, there's a massive withdrawal of Japanese funds: After the USD/JPY fell below the psychological barrier of 150, it triggered a chain reaction. Over the past three months, arbitrage trades borrowing yen to buy U.S. treasuries now need to close positions worth 1.2 trillion yen (approximately $8 billion) daily. This capital is flowing back to Japan, which is equivalent to the global market losing the liquidity support of a medium-sized central bank every day.
**2. Historical Lessons: Insights from the Oil Futures Incident**
Event Recap: On April 20, 2020, U.S. WTI crude oil futures unprecedentedly fell to -$37 per barrel. The Bank of China's "Crude Oil Treasure" product faced a loss of 9 billion yuan for 60,000 investors due to the inability to complete physical delivery. This disaster exposed the core contradiction: when paper trading encounters bottlenecks in physical delivery, futures prices may completely detach from reality.
Current Reflections on the Gold Market:
1. **Underlying Rush for Physical Gold**: The U.S. imported 2,000 tons of gold in two months (40% of global annual production), but exchange inventories only increased by 674 tons, indicating a significant amount of gold is being hoarded directly.
2. **Paper Gold Bubble Risk**: Gold ETF holdings dropped by 5%, while open futures contracts increased by 23%, showing speculative funds are trying to profit in the derivatives market without actual holdings.
3. **Rehearsal of Delivery Crisis**: If a sudden large-scale delivery demand arises, COMEX might repeat the "negative oil price" moment—paper gold plummets, while physical gold premiums soar.
**3. The Ghost of Inflation Returns**
Two dangerous warning signals have lit up: The raw material payment price indices from the Philadelphia and New York Federal Reserves suddenly jumped to a two-year high. This leading indicator suggests that this month's PCE price index may remain stubbornly high. It's crucial to note that the data that Fed Chair Powell cares about most is this one; if it exceeds a month-over-month increase of 0.4% for three consecutive months, the hope for a rate cut in June will essentially vanish.
The Fed's awkward position: Current interest rates are nearly 2 percentage points lower than the theoretical values calculated by traditional formulas. The market is beginning to bet that if inflation data continues to soar, the Fed may not only hesitate to cut rates but could even be forced to reconsider rate hikes before the end of the year.
Wait for a 4-hour confirmation signal, and look for shorting opportunities in gold on the 1-hour chart.
The shorting targets currently only consider the support levels at the bottom of the top consolidation, namely:
TP1: 2906
TP2: 2880
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
XAUUSD Potentially Bearish #XAUUSD over time has seen some very good bullish run and I still hold a bias for the bullish potential however given the map market is currently showing, OANDA:XAUUSD looks potentially bearish. This may likely be for the short term with immediate targets at the 2,875 zone. Before taking the short, I will love to see this current H4 candle close as a bearish candle.
Results are not typical, do your homework and make your decision yourself, past results does not guarantee future results
XAU/USD 27 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 21 February 2025.
Price printed as per yesterday's analysis and bias.
Price has printed a bearish CHocH indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,954.955
Alternative scenario:
Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 26 January 2025.
Price has printed as per alternative scenario analysis whereby I mentioned that as we await for H4 TF to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation, it would be a realistic expectation for price to print a bearish iBOS, which price printed.
As a result of the bearish iBOS, we now have a confirmed swing high.
Price has also printed a bearish CHoCH and traded in to premium of internal 50% EQ.
Intraday Expectation:
Technically, price should target weak internal low priced at 2,888.180.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
Intraday Setup: Gold Market Technical Outlook & Supply Zone.🔹Gold (XAU/USD) 15-Minute Chart Analysis
- The chart highlights a supply zone around the 2,914 level, where price previously faced strong selling pressure.
- Gold has broken below this zone, indicating a potential bearish continuation.
- A retest of the supply zone is expected before further downside movement.
- The projected path suggests a move lower towards new support levels, likely around 2,890 or below.
- If price fails to reclaim the supply zone, sellers may maintain control.
▪️Conclusion:
Gold appears to be in a short-term downtrend, with potential selling opportunities near the supply zone before further declines.
Precious metals declined due to tariff policiesPrecious metals declined due to US President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff policies but remained anchored at high levels because of this.
On February 25, Mr. Trump directed a study of the possibility of imposing new tariffs on imported copper to rebuild US production of metals critical to electric vehicles, military hardware, power grids and many other consumer goods. He also announced he would soon expand his trade war to include a 25% tariff on goods from the European Union (EU)...
Investors are waiting for the US personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) report, a favorite inflation measure of the Federal Reserve (FED), scheduled to be announced on February 28. How inflation develops can affect the FED's interest rate policy this year and impact the precious metals trend.
Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the possibility that the US Central Bank will continue to delay further interest rate cuts. Meger added that as one of the key hedges against inflationary pressures, gold should appreciate more.
XAUUSD:Breaking news, the rise will continue to 2927-2932In the afternoon of London, after notifying the lowest position to buy and make a big profit, gold rebounded to 2914 without more energy, causing the gold price to continue to rise. After reaching 2918, it quickly returned to the position near 2914 and continued to fluctuate. After the market closed, the market was ignited by big news again.
Latest news: The situation between Russia and Ukraine has been further affected by drone attacks.
This has led to the spread of risk aversion and panic in the market. This has led to a sharp increase in demand for XAUUSD.
At present, the price of gold still remains at 2916, and there has not been a significant increase, so it is still a reasonable buying position. The estimated space is about 10-15 points.
Buy at the current price of 2916, tp2927-2932.sl2905
Remember to control trading risks when operating,
XAUUSD Bearish Trend Started for Correction ABCXAUUSD Bearish Trend Started for Correction ABC
Based on recent analyses, gold (XAUUSD) has been on an upward trajectory, reaching record highs above $2,900 in early February 2025. This surge is attributed to factors such as newly imposed tariffs and inflation concerns.
However, some Elliott Wave analyses suggest that gold may be entering a bearish correction phase. For instance, a head and shoulders pattern has been identified, indicating potential for a downward move if key support levels are breached.
Additionally, forecasts indicate that the XAUUSD pair is correcting and may continue to decline, with an estimated pivot point around 2,788.71.
In summary, while gold has recently achieved record highs, certain technical indicators and patterns suggest a possible bearish correction in line with Elliott Wave Theory.
GOLD M30 DETAILED OVERVIEWGold (XAUUSD) is currently trading within a range-bound structure, forming key supply and demand zones.
🔹 Key Levels & Zones:
Strong Demand Zone (2H): Price recently tested a significant demand zone near $2,900 - $2,905, showing signs of potential bullish reaction.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) Fill: There is an imbalance in price action, suggesting a temporary push upward to fill the gap before further moves.
Strong Supply Zone: A major resistance area is identified around $2,945 - $2,950, making it a potential take-profit zone for buyers and an ideal level for fresh sell entries.
🔹 Trade Plan & Expectations:
Short-Term Bullish Move: Price may attempt to retrace higher towards the FVG fill area & supply zone, aiming for $2,940 - $2,945 before facing rejection.
Bearish Continuation: Once the price reaches resistance, a potential sell-off could drive XAUUSD back towards the demand zone and possibly lower towards $2,880 - $2,885.
EMA Confluence: The moving averages suggest an overall bearish trend, with price struggling to hold above key resistance levels.
📉 Bearish Bias: If rejection occurs at resistance, watch for confirmation before entering short positions targeting the demand zone and lower support.
📈 Bullish Scenario: If price breaks above $2,950, it could signal further upside momentum, invalidating the bearish setup.
Gold price analysis February 26⭐️Fundamental analysis
Gold prices rose sharply in the middle of the week thanks to weak US economic data, causing the USD and bond yields to weaken. Concerns about tariffs with Canada, Mexico and the risk of a trade war helped gold maintain its upward momentum.
However, gold prices may face difficulties as the USD recovered slightly after the US House of Representatives passed a budget plan, supporting Trump's tax policy. The US-China meeting on tariffs also restrained the increase, but risk aversion still boosted the demand for safe-haven gold. Investors also followed the speech of Fed officials for more signals about the market.
⭐️Technical analysis
Gold prices unexpectedly increased in the Asian session with the force pushing back to the breakout zone of 2930. The price range of gold has been noted on the chart with the small range of 2892-2942 and the large range of 2868-2978. Gold closing below 2912 will signal a Downtrend and head towards the lower band. On the other hand, Gold's upward path faces more resistance around 2921 and 2930.
Intraday Setup, Resistance Holds! Will Gold Drop Further?🔹Technical Analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) - 1H Chart
▪️ Key Levels:
- Resistance Zone: 2,926.704 USD (Marked in red)
- 1st Target (Support Level): 2,899.780 USD
- 2nd Target (Support Level): 2,880.499 USD
▪️Analysis:
1. Resistance Zone & Potential Rejection:
- The red-shaded area highlights a strong resistance zone around 2,926.704 USD.
- Historically, price has struggled to break above this level, indicating a supply zone where sellers are active.
- The price attempted to break this area but faced rejection, signaling bearish pressure.
2. Projected Price Action:
- The chart suggests that if price retests the resistance zone and fails to break above it, a further downside move is expected.
- A lower high formation within this zone would confirm a continuation of the downtrend.
3. Bearish Targets:
- First target: 2,899.780 USD (Key support level)
- Second target: 2,880.499 USD (Stronger support, potential bounce zone)
4. Volume Analysis:
- The volume bars at the bottom indicate selling momentum is increasing, supporting the bearish outlook.
🔹Conclusion:
- Bearish Bias: If the price fails to break the 2,926.704 resistance, a drop towards 2,899.780 and potentially 2,880.499 is likely.
- Invalidation: A clear breakout above the resistance zone would invalidate the bearish scenario, potentially leading to a bullish push towards higher levels.
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Gold bounces back and recovers after sharp fallIn today's short-term operation of gold, it is recommended to focus on short-selling on rebounds, supplemented by long-selling on callbacks. In the short-term at the top, focus on the first-line resistance of 2930-2940, and in the short-term at the bottom, focus on the first-line support of 2888-2890.
Short position strategy:
Strategy 1: Short 20% of the position in batches near 2928-2930 in the early trading of gold, stop loss 8 points, target near 2910-2900, break to see 2890 line;
Long position strategy:
Strategy 2: Buy 20% of the position in batches near 2890-2892 when gold falls back, stop loss 8 points, target near 2900-2910, break to see 2920 line;
gold on double breakout#XAUUSD, today on price we hope to see reverse back above 2938 but firstly price holds multiple entry's for bullish breakout.
Firstly above the rectangle 2918-2920 breakout we hope to see the current candle H1 to breakout there which holds strong buy.
If price decline between 2916 without touching 2918 then the price is possible to fall from there back below 2988.
But below 2908 holds bullish if no current move above 2916 then bullish can start from 2908, TP 2938, SL 2896.
XAUUSD SHORT 4H (Results)Due to inattentive study of the rules of the tradingviews platform, the trading idea was blocked
I apologize to those who used this idea in their trading system due to the blocking, I will be more careful in the future.
Result : XAUUSD SHORT 4H reaches the 2 targets zone for taking profits.
I move my stop into profit and wait for new variables from the market .
XAU/USD 26 January 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 21 February 2025.
Price printed as per yesterday's analysis and bias.
Price has printed a bearish CHocH indicating, but not confirming bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,954.955
Alternative scenario:
Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has printed as per alternative scenario analysis whereby I mentioned that as we await for H4 TF to confirm bearish pullback phase initiation, it would be a realistic expectation for price to print a bearish iBOS, which price printed.
As a result of the bearish iBOS, we now have a confirmed swing high.
Price has also printed a bearish CHoCH and traded in to premium of internal 50% EQ.
Intraday Expectation:
Technically, price should target weak internal low priced at 2,888.180.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.