Market Structure & Technical Context 14 July 20241. Price Action & Market Structure
Gold has broken recent swing highs above ~$3,360, marking a bullish Break of Structure (BOS) and signaling upward momentum continuity
Recent pullback zones around $3,350–$3,340 formed a clear Higher Low (Change of Character) — textbook price action confirmation.
2. Fibonacci Retracement / Extension
Measuring from the last swing low near ~$3,326 to swing high ~3,374:
38.2% retracement at ~$3,352 coincides with the current bounce zone.
50% retracement at ~$3,350 aligns with key structure support.
Upside extension targets: 1.272 at ~$3,396, 1.618 at ~$3,425 — overlapping major resistance zones
3. ICT & Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Order Blocks (OBs) identified near $3,340–$3,342 (prior resistance turned support) — ideal demand zone.
A recent Buy-side liquidity grab eclipsed above $3,360, sweeping stops and gathering liquidity before the breakout — classic ICT setup .
A Fair Value Gap (imbalance) lies around $3,345–$3,350 — zone to expect value-driven retracement.
Higher timeframe has clear SMC alignment: BOS above 3,360 with CHoCH already formed.
4. Major Supply / Demand & Support / Resistance Zones
Demand: $3,340–$3,352 (OB + Fib + BOS confluence).
Supply: $3,380–$3,385 (intraday swing high resistance), followed by zone at $3,396–$3,400.
Key resistance at $3,360–$3,362 — confirmed supply pocket that needs to be reclaimed
5. Moving Average Confirmation
The 4‑hour SMA/EMA 100–200 band is sloping up just below current price (~$3,340–$3,350), reinforcing the bullish context .
1‑Hour Intraday Setups (Aligned with HTF Bullish Bias)
Setup A: Pullback into 4‑Hour OB / Fair Value Gap
Entry: Limit buy at $3,345–$3,350.
Stop: Below $3,335 (below imbalance & BOS).
TP1: $3,362 (former resistance).
TP2: $3,380 (next supply block).
Setup B: Breakout Retest of 3,360
Entry: Buy on retest of broken resistance at $3,360.
Stop: Below $3,356.
TP1: $3,380.
TP2: $3,396 (Fib extension confluence).
Setup C: Momentum Continuation Fresh Breakout
Entry: Market buy on clear H1 BOS above $3,365.
Stop: Below breakout candle low (~$3,360).
TP: $3,396 (1.272 Fib) – extend to $3,425 if momentum strong.
The Golden Setup:
Setup A—buy from $3,345–$3,350—has strong confluences:
4‑hour demand OB + fair value gap,
38.2–50% Fib retracement,
SMC BOS/imbalance alignment,
ICT-style order block zone.
This offers high edge with confluence clusters.
✔ Summary Report: Direction & Key Zones
Directional Bias:
Medium-term (4H): Bullish, confirmed by BOS above 3,360, higher lows, OB and Fibonacci alignment.
🔹 Primary Buy Zones:
$3,345–$3,350 — 4H OB + fair value gap + Fib.
$3,360 on retention — breakout retest zone.
Momentum entry >$3,365.
🔹 Key Target Zones:
First resistance: $3,360–$3,362.
Next supply: $3,380–$3,385.
Extension target: $3,396 (1.272 Fib), then $3,425 (1.618 Fib).
🔻 Watchdownside Risk:
Daily invalidation if drop below $3,335 (4H OB break).
Next support at $3,326–$3,330.
📋 Consolidated Table: Setups at a Glance
Setup Entry Zone Stop Targets
Golden $3,345–$3,350 $3,335 TP1: $3,362 / TP2: $3,380
Breakout Pullback $3,360 retest $3,356 $3,380 → $3,396
Momentum BOS >$3,365 (H1 BOS) < $3,360 $3,396 → $3,425
Final Thoughts
On the 4‑hour chart, price is firmly in a bullish regime, supported by price structure, SMC, ICT concepts, and Fibonacci confluence. The $3,345–$3,350 zone is the highest‑probability entry for buyers, offering excellent risk/reward. The Golden Setup targets ~$3,380 and beyond, combining structure, gap fill, and liquidity strategy.
