XAU/USD: Don’t chase the highs, beware of retracement risksGold market fundamentals:
The market believes that the Fed will definitely cut interest rates in September, but the uncertainty is whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points.
The decline in U.S. bond yields and the low dollar index make gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies, providing some support for gold prices.
In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, which also provides safe-haven support for gold prices.
Technical aspects of the gold market:
With the rise of today's Asian and European sessions, the gold price is now above 2440 points, and the resistance of 2430-2440 has been broken. The nearest resistance above is the previous high of 2458. From the trend of the daily chart, the 4-hour chart and the 1-hour chart, it is an upward trend, so it is sufficient to continue to be bullish in the general direction. In the short term, due to the pull-up of today's Asian and European sessions, the price is at a high level. I think it is very likely to rise again after a correction in the short term.
Trading strategy:
I will not chase the rise today, but consider buying when waiting for the pullback support.
Support range: 2425-2435
Resistance range: above 2458
Daily risk data: US New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations in July
Xauusdbuy
CPI data comes, gold price is expected to exceed 2500Judging from the current gold price, I think it is of little significance to refer to technical indicators.
From the hourly chart, it is not difficult to see that gold has been fluctuating in the range of 2458 lows and 2475 highs in the past two days, and this state is very likely to change after the release of CPI data in 1 hour.
The current gold price shows an obvious bullish trend under the influence of geopolitical crises, interest rate cuts and other factors, and the safe-haven demand and attractiveness of gold prices are still increasing. In the short term, the price is very likely to break through the historical high and stand firm at the 2500-point integer mark.
The release of CPI data will not have a great impact on the current bullish trend of gold. If it is bullish for gold, the bullish power will be released directly, directly to 2500 points. If it is bearish for gold, the bullish power will be significantly stronger than the shortish power. This situation will not cause gold to turn downward.
Therefore, my strategy today must be mainly bullish. Here are two ideas for your reference. The first is to buy directly at the current price and wait for the price to rise. The second is to wait for the data to be released. If you are bullish, you can directly chase the rise, and if you are bearish, you can wait. Buy at the low point after the negative power is released
Can't go wrong with GOLD in this environment?XAUUSD price is forming a symmetrical triangle, and approaching record high territory.
Triangle Continuation pattern and the buy entry will be formed if the price latter break above the short-term downtrend line.
Can't go wrong with GOLD in this environment?
#XAUUSD/H4 Model 2 peaks appear, gold's correction rhythmAnalysis of the gold trend in the Asia-Europe session on 14/08/2024:
After forming a double bottom pattern at 2380, gold experienced a nearly 100-point increase. Yesterday, the PPI did not help gold break through the resistance zone of 2473-2475. If gold breaks the area of 2458-2460, it will officially confirm the double top pattern.
However, today's CPI is still a mystery. Is this a correction phase or just a fake breakout? The long-term trend remains a BUY, but short-term SELL trades can be made at the peak area.
Key price levels to watch: 2473-2475, 2444-2447, and 2430-2434.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: SELL XAUUSD zone 2473 - 2475
SL 2479
TP 2468 - 2458 - 2445.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 2444-2447
SL 2441
TP 2455 - 2468 - 2485 - 2509.
Plan 3: BUY XAUUSD zone 2430-2433
SL 2427
TP 2444 - 2458 - 2468 - 2509.
XAUUSD: Risk aversion heats up, continues to be bullishGold Market Fundamentals:
Yesterday, gold prices surged by over $40 due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, driving safe-haven inflows. Israel’s military actions in Gaza, potential Iranian retaliation, and Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s Kursk region have all heightened investor demand for gold. Additionally, the market's heightened sensitivity to geopolitical risks has increased gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. The market now sees a 49% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September. Falling U.S. Treasury yields are also supporting gold prices.
Gold Market Technicals:
Technically, the uptrend remains strong. After yesterday's rapid price increase, gold is facing resistance at previous highs. According to Fibonacci retracement, the 0.786 level is at 2456, which has shown some support but not strongly. The next strong support area is significantly lower than the current price.
Trading Strategy:
I have bought at 2461, targeting 2480 and 2500
Support Range: 2456, 2435
Resistance Range: Around 2480
Intraday Risk Data: U.S. July PPI
If you have different opinions or questions, please speak up and let’s discuss GOLD’s latest ideas together.
XAUUSD: Updated View, Safe Heaven is on the rise! Dear Traders,
Our previous analysis that we had anticipated price to drop, however, price were accumulating during that time and we failed to idefitfy the pattern. However, now we expect price to reach and touch previous HH point, which will be a key area for most of the traders, whether price will be reversing back to the 2300$ region or 2500$.
Good luck and trade safe.
Tuesday's Profit Signals and Strategies
#xauusd
Yesterday, gold rose violently by 2423-2476=530pips
The several areas I gave rose violently after only a small profit.
Then it broke through the red area of my chart and rose along the arrow.
Today I give several trading areas:
buy xauusd1 2451-2454 is at the 0.5 line of the rising channel. (Gold rebounded once at 2458. Next observation)
buy xauusd2 2442-2445 0.618 line. Today's most suitable price range for buying and rising.
buy xauusd23 2431-2435 If gold is at this price. You can buy directly.
sell xauusd 2481-2485 The highest price in history. If the gold price reaches this range. You can sell. If it breaks through the line in my chart, then gold may continue to rise violently
Please refer to my resistance and support area trading. This way you can get some safe profits. Don't be greedy. Trading opportunities always exist.
If you trade profitably with my signals or you like my analysis, then please give me a thumbs up and join me.
#XAUUSD/H4 CPI today determines the long-term trend of GOLD.Analysis of the European - US session on August 13, 2024:
On the second day, we have seen a strong increase in all sessions. Gold has approached the old peak area.
Today's CPI news will determine whether a triple peak pattern will form and whether there will be a deep correction. A reversal creating a peak has appeared on H4. The trading trend today is mainly BUY. But caution is required in sensitive price zones like this.
Price areas to watch: Zones 2430-2434; 2444-2447 and 2481-2486.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 2430-2433
SL 2427
TP 2440 - 2450 - 2470.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 2444 - 2447
SL 2441
TP 2452 - 2460 -2470.
Plan 3: SELL XAUUSD zone 2483 - 2486
SL 2492
TP 2475 - 2450 - 2430 - open.
Gold Price Advances to Amid Rising Middle East Tension
Gold prices have surged to a one-week high, buoyed by a confluence of factors that have ignited investor interest in the safe-haven asset. For the third consecutive day, the precious metal has experienced upward momentum, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and mounting expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The escalating conflicts in the Middle East have cast a shadow over global markets, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold tends to appreciate during periods of heightened uncertainty and geopolitical instability. The ongoing tensions in the region have heightened concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies and the broader economic implications, thereby bolstering gold's appeal.
Simultaneously, growing speculation about a potential pivot by the Federal Reserve towards a more dovish monetary policy stance has also supported gold prices. As economic growth concerns persist, market participants are increasingly betting on interest rate cuts later this year. Lower interest rates typically benefit gold, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.
However, the upside potential for gold prices may be tempered by the overall positive risk sentiment in the market. While geopolitical tensions and rate cut expectations have provided a solid foundation for gold's rally, a generally upbeat market mood could limit gains. Investors are also likely to adopt a cautious stance ahead of the release of crucial US inflation data this week. The inflation figures will provide valuable insights into the trajectory of the US economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.
As the market digests the evolving geopolitical landscape and awaits key economic indicators, gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term. While the underlying fundamentals remain supportive, the potential for profit-taking and shifts in investor sentiment could introduce some headwinds.
Going forward, the interplay between geopolitical tensions, interest rate expectations, and overall market sentiment will be crucial in determining the direction of gold prices. Traders and investors will be closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, as well as economic data releases, for clues about the metal's future trajectory.
XAUUSD: Buy when it falls back to the support rangeGold market fundamentals:
Affected by this week's US economic data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently has a 55.5% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, down from the previous 70%.
The increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to an increase in safe-haven demand (it is not convenient to explain in detail here, you can learn about the latest Middle East conflicts on your own)
Gold market technical aspects:
Yesterday I said that once the dense resistance range of 2411-2422 is broken, the potential for growth will increase. Now that the gold price has come above the resistance range, the dense resistance area has also turned into a dense support area. At the same time, this rebound has now formed an upward trend. If it can break through 2430-2440, then the gold price is likely to test the historical high again.
Trading strategy:
In the figure, 2416 is the previous high and the support of the lower track of the Bollinger Band. 2422 is the support of the middle track of the Bollinger Band and the Fibonacci retracement of 0.618. Therefore, I will buy if it falls back to the support range of 2416-2422 today, and I am bullish on 2430-2440.
Support range: 2410-2400
Resistance range: 2430-2440
Daily risk data: Canada's July employment (little impact)
Gold price recovers! Buyers dominate⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to build on Thursday's strong 2% gain and edged lower during the Asian session on Friday. A positive mood in global equity markets put some pressure on the safe-haven metal, but various factors should help prevent significant losses. Concerns over a potential Middle East conflict and expectations of larger rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could support gold.
Dovish Fed expectations are also weighing on US Treasury bond yields and pulling the US Dollar (USD) down from its weekly high. This environment favors bullish traders and suggests that gold's likely direction is upward. Any further dip might be seen as a buying opportunity, especially with no major US economic releases expected soon. The market's attention will turn to the upcoming US consumer inflation figures, due next Wednesday.
⭐️ Personal comments NOVA:
Bulls dominate over the weekend - surpassing 2420, amid growing global military tensions
⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2408 - $2406 SL $2402 scalping
TP1: $2415
TP2: $2422
TP3: $2430
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2388 - $2386 SL $2380
TP1: $2395
TP2: $2410
TP3: $2420
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2441 - $2443 SL $2448
TP1: $2430
TP2: $2420
TP3: $2410
⭐️ Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️ NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
Gold Rally – With Rate Cuts Near ✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 8/12 - 8/16/2024
🔥 World situation:
Gold prices continued to rise for the second consecutive day as traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might start easing policy at the upcoming September meeting. Rising tensions between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran also support gold ahead of the weekend. XAU/USD is trading at $2,432, up by 0.22%.
Recent US economic data indicates a slowing economy, though not enough to spark recession fears. Concerns following weak ISM Manufacturing PMI and July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports eased, as shown by the gains in US equities late in the New York session.
🔥 Identify:
Gold price recovers - important motivation for FED interest rate cut is getting closer - waiting for attention resistance zones next week: 2448, 2480, 2500
🔥 Technically:
Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows:
Resistance: $2448, $2480, $2500
Support : $2405, $2387, $2352
🔥 NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
- The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
XAU/USD (GOLD) Long from 2.390.000 back up My bias on gold remains bullish. Price has been reacting strongly to demand zones and imbalances, producing solid bullish candles. However, since price left a clean demand zone, I expect a small pullback into that zone for reaccumulation.
Once price gives a change of character to the upside in the 20-hour demand zone, I’ll look to buy back up to target the Asia high below the 45-minute supply zone.
Confluences for GOLD Buys:
- Price changed character to the upside, leaving a clean 20-hour demand zone.
- Liquidity above in the form of an Asia high.
- -Market structure is bullish on both higher and lower time frames.
Economic news and ongoing conflicts support GOLD longs.
P.S. After sweeping the Asia high below the supply, I expect a short-term sell opportunity around the 45-minute supply at 2,470.000. However, I’ll wait to see how price reacts.
XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👉 🔍 In this video, we take a detailed look at XAU/USD Gold. Recently, it broke structure on the daily time frame with a strong bullish move toward previous resistance levels. However, the 4-hour chart is currently showing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a short-term downward trend. Despite this, the price seems to be holding steady, and I'm watching for a potential bullish breakout. If the price breaks resistance and retraces into the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci zone, it could present a buying opportunity. As always, this video is intended for educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice. 📊 ✅
XAUUSD: Get ready for a gold reboundOANDA:XAUUSD Yesterday, financial markets plummeted due to recession fears, but today global stock markets and stock index futures are rebounding. Gold, despite its drop, is expected to bounce back as a safe-haven asset. Interest rate futures have almost fully priced in a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September
Once recession risks are mitigated, gold's liquidity will make it a top safe-haven choice, especially as purchasing power declines. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical crises will keep influencing gold prices
Technically, 2420 is a key level. Breaking it could open up more upside potential. If not, the downtrend may continue. The 2380-2360 area is strong support; if it holds, prices may rise again, but if broken, further downside is likely
If you have different views or questions, let's discuss the latest insights on GOLD
GOLD: 1 HR View, Let's see how it goes! Dear Traders,
We have two possible sell entries first one is risky where we can see price reversing from current trading price. However, it can be riskier, there is safe entry that you can take when price to small upside correction and then continue to drop.
Good luck and trade safe.
Gold prices enter a recovery period and the plunge is overOANDA:XAUUSD Against the backdrop of concerns about economic recession, global assets are experiencing a sell-off.
But as a safe-haven asset, shouldn't gold rise? Instead, it followed the sharp drop of $100.
This situation is very abnormal, so I don't think gold will continue to fall. Once investors calm down and look back, gold will soon highlight its safe-haven characteristics.
The market now believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September is 90%, and the US dollar index is also falling, and the probability of gold prices continuing to fall is shrinking.
And the Middle East geopolitical crisis has not yet passed, and you don't know when it will break out again, leading to rising risk aversion.
Under the above multiple premises, we should not be overly bearish on gold
Technically speaking, 2420 is a watershed, which has already highlighted its importance in the previous trends that have served as resistance and support many times. Once it breaks through, it will open up room for growth.
On the contrary, gold will maintain a low-level oscillation pattern, because such actions will be carried out after a big drop or a big rise. The main support area below is 2380-2365. Be prepared to sell if it falls below.
★Welcome to share your views and questions below, let's discuss TVC:GOLD 's latest ideas
Gold vs. Yen Carry Trade: A Shifting Paradigm
For years, the yen carry trade has been a cornerstone of many investment portfolios. This strategy involves borrowing low-yielding Japanese yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, such as US Treasuries. However, a confluence of factors is making gold, represented by the XAU/USD pair, an increasingly attractive alternative.
The Yen Carry Trade Under Pressure
The yen carry trade has historically been a profitable strategy, fueled by Japan's ultra-low interest rate environment. However, recent developments have cast a shadow over its allure.
• Rising Interest Rates: Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have embarked on a tightening cycle to combat inflation. This has narrowed the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, reducing the potential profit from the carry trade.
• Yen Strength: The Japanese yen has shown unexpected resilience, countering the traditional trend of yen weakness. This is partly due to safe-haven flows as investors seek refuge from global economic uncertainties.
• Geopolitical Risks: Increased geopolitical tensions can disrupt carry trades. A sudden shift in risk appetite can lead to rapid yen appreciation, erasing potential gains and incurring significant losses.
The Allure of Gold
In contrast, gold has emerged as a compelling investment option.
• Safe-Haven Asset: Gold is often perceived as a safe-haven asset, providing a hedge against economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical risks. As global economic conditions become increasingly volatile, investors may seek the security of gold.
• Inflation Hedge: With inflation concerns persisting, gold has historically been seen as an effective inflation hedge. As the price of goods and services rises, the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines, making gold an attractive store of value.
• Diversification Benefits: Gold can help diversify an investment portfolio. Its low correlation with traditional asset classes can reduce overall portfolio risk.
• Central Bank Demand: Central banks have been net buyers of gold in recent years, supporting its price. This ongoing demand can provide a bullish undercurrent for the gold market.
XAU/USD: A Closer Look
The XAU/USD pair, representing the price of gold in US dollars, offers investors exposure to the gold market.
• Dollar Dynamics: While gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, the US dollar can also appreciate in times of uncertainty. Therefore, the performance of XAU/USD depends on the interplay between gold and the dollar.
• Interest Rate Sensitivity: Gold is generally inversely correlated with interest rates. Rising interest rates can put downward pressure on gold prices, as investors may prefer higher-yielding bonds. However, this relationship is not always straightforward, and other factors can influence gold's price.
Conclusion
The decision to invest in gold or continue with the yen carry trade is a complex one, influenced by individual risk tolerance, investment horizon, and market outlook. While the yen carry trade has historically been a profitable strategy, the changing interest rate environment and geopolitical risks have increased its challenges. Gold, with its safe-haven appeal and inflation-hedging properties, offers a compelling alternative. Investors should carefully consider the potential benefits and risks of both options before making a decision.
It's important to note that this article provides general information and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Gold / XAUUSD Money Heist Plan in gold minesMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist XAUUSD / GOLD mines based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on 2 plans. Our target is Green Zone for bearish market and red zone for Bullish Market that is High risk Dangerous level, market is Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
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sharp market sell-offtrying to find international gold rate index: it`s authentic that gold does not marvel us with a very good result, sweeping liquidity, making many hearts freeze, then returning, so the restoration segment makes many human beings not able to yawn, breathe oxygen. The mainstream fashion remains increasing, the sharks simply dance a bit bit.
*) these days, August 6, 2024: we are able to wait to shop for in step with the fashion, these days gold has back to the proper factor to begin a sturdy growth to the 2500 mark, with the Fed's hobby charge reduce earlier than the emergency meeting, encouraging traders to shop for.
- purchase immediately at modern-day rate
- wait to shop for round the brand new 2406-2408 place with the subsequent targets:
tp 1: 2422
tp 2: 2433
tp 3: 2445
=> the marketplace continually surprises us, we should comply with the order principle (sl-prevent five prices), area in buying and selling, affordable access and exit.
- desire all traders a success buying and selling and remarkable victory.
XAU/USD Imminent Longs from 2390 back upThis week’s analysis for gold reveals a compelling setup. We've observed a bearish reaction from the supply zone I previously identified. With a character change to the upside and a daily demand zone in place, this setup suggests a potential rally.
If price reaches the 2-hour supply zone (Scenario B), I will look for a distribution pattern to consider short-term sells. However, we'll assess this as price progresses.
Confluences for GOLD Buys:
Character Change: Price has shifted to the upside, leaving a robust demand zone.
Accumulation: Recent accumulation suggests readiness for a new rally.
Trend Alignment: Gold remains bullish, reflecting the overall market trend.
External Factors: Ongoing geopolitical events and news typically push gold higher.
P.S. If price surpasses the supply zone, there is a strong likelihood that gold could reach new all-time highs and continue its upward trajectory.
Gold prices can be long now.
Yesterday, before the gold price closed, I suggested to continue going long on gold today. Today, the gold price market is in line with expectations again. At the same time, the market released a signal that is good for gold. The gold price hit the position near 2397 again. It has not yet broken through 2400. But Eddy believes that it is only a matter of time before it breaks through 2400. At present, the gold price remains around 2390. Short-term long positions can be carried out below 2386.
Investors with sufficient funds can consider entering the market in advance.
COMEX:GC1! FOREXCOM:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD TVC:DXY