XAUUSD : IT DID FALL DOWN! (UPDATE)Hey guys,
This is more of an update to a previous analysis we had. We had a good short on gold before we went long on the rebound. It is now clear that gold broke to the downside and it's trying to go for our new zone highlighted in our blue rectangle. We could see a bounce off the last FIB or it could go straight down to our preferred zone. PA is always key.
We need to see where this lands before entering the market with a trade. I'll keep you guys posted.
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Trade safe!
This was an update to this chart :
Xauusddaily
XAUUSD -Gold/Dollar: Possibilities AnalysisSince price has been following upward to retest resistance (down/green) trendline, it can attempt to test other resistance: the past high swing & resistance at that price as is (blue line).
Test of these prices resisted may be needed to ever start a short condition, yet Daily TF:(Following image) shows attempt at resistance (MBL slightly upward (yellow line), but green/red moving down), so I assume price will rise higher most likely to later form a better sell opportunity as it now slightly consolidates to "subtrendline" or the uptrendline.
Waiting for GOLD to Form a Head & Shoulders Pattern Before ShortAs you can see from this Daily chart, Gold has been in a short/medium term bull trend recently.
This bulltrend could potentially be running out of steam here - as you can see from the Fibonacci I have applied to the bear trend before it, Gold has now reached its 61% retracement area.
It pulled back from the 61% Fibonacci area (around $1255~) quite rapidly and it wasnt for the close of the last daily candle being quite bullish (a hammer) I would have been short first thing Monday.
However because Gold managed to pull back right at the end of the day (if you check the 4hourly you will see it only pulled back in the last 4 hours of trading), meaning the body of the daily candle did actually close above the outer trendline - as you can see on the chart.
This gives me a feeling Gold will pullback up slightly, hitting the Resistance of the left shoulder (blue dotted line) forming a right shoulder, indicating the end of the recent bull trend/start of its next leg down.
If Gold does form a head and shoulders pattern, I will be looking for a daily close below the Outer Trendline to enter short.
Probably with an inital target of $1225 or the next blue dotted line of support - but I do belive $1200 and below would not be far behind once these levels have been breached!
We will have to wait and see what the price action does, remember anything can happen in the market!
Will update more next week.
Gold Daily Analysis 2-26-17Gold has finally gotten a break above the 1250 level. We are approaching overbought levels so I am expecting some pullback to the 1240 area before further upside. There is only slight RSI divergence which I do not believe is enough pressure to get us back under the support. The bullish sentiment on Gold and Yen have bee strong. As long as equities keep topping out I see more money flowing toward safe havens.
XAUUSD Weekly View: Remain bearish testing major resistanceSell below 1250.00. Stop loss at 1310.00. Take profit at 1125.00.
Reason for the trading strategy:
We remain bearish below 1250 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to 1125 support (swing low support, Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement).
RSI (34) has made a bullish exit and warns off a potential further rise.
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 94% where we expect a reaction from.
Gold @ daily @ technical Death Cross (100 SMA crosses 200 SMA)If the 100 SMA is crossing the 200 SMA many traders are talking about "death cross" - `cause the midterm investors starting to get under pressure relative to the longterm investors ...
How ever,
not only the big picture about XAUUSD is ugly - the short term picture inclusive :)
1188.10 intraday high while last FED press conference
1157.30 intraday low while last FED press conference
1165.36 intraday high while last ECB press conference
1138.68 intraday low while last ECB press conference
should all be something like higher short entry capabilities into last temporarly lows (around 1088 while december`15) after historical all-time high (around 1920 in september`11). In principle, i can`t imagine that we`ll trade XAUUSD ever again around prices of 1199.80 (june`16 low) & 1241.50 (october`16 low), `cause the fed will raise their rates 2,3 times 2017. But not in 1st quarter`17, if i am anticipating the future right. See dates of FED & ECB (1st Quarter in chart also). All in all together these are the main reasons why i would prefere the downside not only 1st Quarter`17 - much more until end of 2017. New temproraly lows under 1046 are only a quest of time. And prices under 999 - one year ahead (while christmas 2017) - woudn`t surprise me any more ...
Take care about the death cross ahead,
this could initial technical price volatility out of the yearly lows of 2013 (white line by 1180.20) & 2014 (white line by 1132.08). Superordimnate price targets are form this point of view 1073.53 (yearly 2015 low) & 1061.20 (1st price of 2016) & even also around 1046 (temporarly lowest price while dec`15 since all-time high in sep`11).
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron