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Xauusdforecast

Don't trade XAU/USD in the middleGold is currently in a phase where it’s too early to establish an uptrend channel, but the conditions are ripening for a retest of its previous all-time high in the $2,793 area. What’s crucial at this stage is the formation of a rounded bullish pattern, which could set the stage for further upward momentum. Short-Term Movement: Retest and Cooling Down Retest of $2,793: A rally to retest the $2,793 level appears likely, as gold capitalizes on recent bullish momentum. Cooling Phase: After rejecting the all-time high, gold could cool down, first retreating to the $2,650 zone, and then further to $2,550. This corrective move will allow the market to consolidate before the next significant push. Two Possible Scenarios for 2025–2026: Scenario 1: Bullish Channel and New High by April 2025 Timeline: Between January and February 2025, XAU/USD could start forming a clear bullish channel. Target: This structure could lead to a new all-time high in the $2,800–$2,900 range by March–April 2025. Outlook: This scenario represents a continuation of the bullish trend with steady growth. Scenario 2: Prolonged Range and Significant Drop by 2026 Timeline: Gold may remain in a range-bound phase until November 2025, oscillating between key levels ($2,700-$2,500) Target: A lack of upward momentum during this time increases the probability of a significant decline to $2,300 by May 2026. Outlook: This scenario reflects market exhaustion after prolonged consolidation, leading to a bearish correction. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $2,793 (ATH), $2,800–$2,900 (potential new high). Support: $2,650, $2,550 (corrective phases), $2,300 (long-term bearish target). Summary: XAU/USD is preparing for a retest of the $2,793 all-time high, followed by a likely cooling phase to $2,650–$2,550. Beyond this, gold’s trajectory depends on its ability to establish a bullish channel in early 2025: Bullish Outcome: New ATH of $2,800–$2,900 by April 2025. Bearish Outcome: Prolonged range followed by a drop to $2,300 by May 2026. Traders and investors should monitor key levels and the market’s ability to build a rounded bullish pattern to gauge the next significant move.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
by QuantumFusionWave
Gold Short: Capitalizing on Sunday Open RejectionGold has shown a strong rejection of the $2,650 price area after retracing to the Sunday open levels, aligning with the prevailing higher time frame (HTF) bearish trend. This trade is engaged to capitalize on the downside potential as the price fails to break the dynamic resistance at $2,650. With the support of the HTF momentum and a clear rejection, the trade setup focuses on targeting the lower support levels in the $2,610-$2,600 zone while maintaining a disciplined approach to risk management. Technical Analysis: Daily Chart: • Price struggles below the mildly bearish 20 SMA. • Both 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bearish slopes, confirming the downtrend. • Momentum indicators remain neutral, supporting the absence of bullish reversal signs. 4-Hour Chart: • XAU/USD trades below the flat 20 SMA while hovering near a directionless 100 SMA. • The 200 SMA around $2,690 acts as dynamic resistance, pushing prices lower. • Indicators are aligned with bearish momentum, suggesting further downside. • Support Levels: $2,626.70, $2,611.35, $2,598.70 • Resistance Levels: $2,643.30, $2,655.00, $2,671.55 Fundamental Analysis: The US Dollar’s strength continues to weigh on Gold prices, driven by robust macroeconomic data: • ISM Manufacturing PMI: Revised upward to 49.7, better than expected, supporting USD strength. • Wall Street Sentiment: Mixed trading as geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia persist. • Upcoming Events: Markets anticipate key US employment data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which could bring additional volatility to XAU/USD. Trade Management: • Entry near $2,645 with clear rejection signals. • Stop Loss: Placed above $2,659 to manage risk efficiently. • Targets: Initial take profit at $2,622, with a potential extension to $2,610. • Risk Management: Adhering to the bearish trend, the trade will be closely monitored, especially as the US Nonfarm Payrolls data approaches. • Risk Management: Trail stops as price moves lower. Monitor market reactions closely, especially around major support and resistance zones, and adapt as Nonfarm Payrolls approach. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by AR33_
XAUUSD Trade Log - Monthly Swing TradeXAUUSD Swing Long Trade This is a high-confidence swing trade setup with multiple confluences across monthly and daily timeframes. Trade Details : - Risk: 5% of capital - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:4 - Entry: Anywhere within the monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG), which has a 90-point range. You may DCA (Dollar Cost Average) into your position for better flexibility, though this is discretionary. - Confluence: Signals align from the monthly down to the daily charts, indicating strong bullish momentum. Macro Factors Supporting Gold Longs : - Safe-Haven Demand: Global geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, have driven investors toward gold as a risk-averse asset. - Rising Recession Risks: With several central banks maintaining high interest rates for prolonged periods, economic slowdown fears are rising, further boosting gold demand. - Central Bank Purchases: Central banks worldwide, especially in emerging markets, continue to accumulate gold reserves to reduce reliance on the US dollar. - Inflation Hedging: Persistent inflation concerns make gold an attractive hedge, particularly as real yields show signs of plateauing. - Weakened Dollar Outlook: A potential pivot in US Federal Reserve policy could weaken the dollar, which would likely support gold prices in the medium to long term. This swing trade offers a strong opportunity to capitalize on the current macroeconomic and technical landscape favoring gold's upward momentum. Stay aware of any unexpected fundamental developments that could influence the market.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Fondera
XAUUSD Trade LogXAUUSD Buy Signal: Entry within the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), aiming for a 1:3 Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) with 1% risk. While there is a conflicting bearish FVG that might obstruct the path to the take-profit (TP) level, the trade setup remains valid and will be executed regardless. Key Details: - Risk: 1% - RRR: 1:3 - Entry: Daily FVG in a discounted zone - TP: Positioned below the bearish FVG to mitigate resistance - Note: Monitor price action near the bearish FVG as it may create challenges for the bullish move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Fondera
Drop it Like it's HotRight now price is in a much larger descending channel - indicating we are in an overall down trend. We can see from looking left there is what most retail traders would call a demand zone in anticipation for the market to push higher. HOWEVER, keeping in mind the higher TF (Daily) and the fact that "the trend is our friend" we can see that price is in fact in this downward descending channel. I will only be looking for SHORT positions this week, especially towards the end of this week with the LAST NFP of 2024. Man, time flew by! So far price is pushing pretty aggressively towards the downside and I will look for further confirmations (on the lower TF - 15m & 5m) for my exact entries. Thanks for checking out my idea and Happy trading!!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MommaPreneur
Strong Economy = Weak Gold | XAUUSDPositive unemployment data is indirectly bad news for gold. Because good unemployment data = low probability of recession , Gold price was going up because of the probability of crisis increases. That's why I think gold will lose this tiny reaction from the range low point at full speed and go to the boxes below. I don't overcomplicate things and add a ton of dirty crap to my charts, but you can check out the success of my analysis below. I approach trading with confidence backed by experience and past success in identifying high-probability setups. While I don’t claim to be the best, my track record speaks for itself, and I strive to let my analysis and results do the talking. Watch these levels closely—markets can confirm what charts already whisper. Let’s see how this plays out together. My Previous Ideas DOGEUSDT.P | 4 Reward for 1 Risk much more if you hold it. RENDERUSDT.P | HTF Accuracy ETHUSDT.P | Accurate Buyer Zone Identification | High Risk Reward if you hold it. BNBUSDT.P | Accurate Buyer Zone Identification | High Risk Reward if you hold it. Bitcoin Dominance | Great Characteristic Detection and Accurate Analysis
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XU99
XAUUSD SHORT SWING TRADEGold's Bearish Outlook for December: An Analysis Using Vinnie's Trading Cheat Code Gold's price action is a reflection of global market sentiment, economic trends, and technical signals. Based on the analysis using **Vinnie's Trading Cheat Code (VTCC)**, the December outlook for gold suggests a bearish trend. Here’s a detailed explanation grounded in both technical and macroeconomic factors: --- **1. Technical Signals from Vinnie's Trading Cheat Code** **A. CC Sell Signal on Higher Timeframes** The VTCC system has triggered **CC Sell signals** on the **daily and 4-hour charts**, indicating a shift in market momentum. These signals are confirmed by: - **Bearish Divergence in the CC MACD**: The Cheat Code MACD shows declining momentum despite previous price spikes, a precursor to potential trend reversals. - **Trend Continuation Markers**: Recent price action has failed to break above key resistance levels, reinforcing a continuation of the bearish trend. **B. Trendline Break Confirmation** A critical ascending trendline, which supported gold prices since early Q3, has been decisively broken. VTCC confirms this as a bearish trigger when combined with a CC Sell Alert. **C. Lack of Volume on Retracements** During recent upward retracements, VTCC's volume-based Confirm Indicator flagged weak buying interest. This suggests that sellers remain in control. --- **2. Macro Factors Supporting the Bearish Thesis** **A. Strengthening U.S. Dollar** Historically, gold moves inversely to the U.S. dollar. With robust U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone, the dollar is poised to strengthen further. This diminishes gold's appeal as a safe haven. **B. Rising Treasury Yields** Higher yields on U.S. Treasury bonds make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. VTCC's Fundamental Sentiment Scanner has highlighted increased bearish sentiment in gold as bond yields rise. **C. Seasonal Weakness** Gold tends to experience seasonal weakness in December due to reduced physical demand and increased profit-taking ahead of the new year. VTCC's historical pattern analysis aligns with this seasonal trend. --- **Conclusion** Gold's bearish outlook for December is well-supported by VTCC's technical indicators and macroeconomic trends. The combination of CC Sell signals, declining momentum, seasonal factors, and macroeconomic headwinds create a compelling narrative for a bearish move. Traders leveraging **Vinnie's Trading Cheat Code** can capitalize on this trend with confidence, knowing the system’s precision in identifying high-probability setups.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by bluesignalfx
Will the rise in gold prices continue? Latest trading strategiesGold risk aversion eased on Monday, and gold broke down directly. The bullish trend of gold was temporarily eased. After the decline of gold, the bulls did not have a strong counterattack. It is difficult for the bulls to make a big move for the time being. Gold rebounded and continued to be short. Gold broke down with the easing of risk aversion, and then the hourly moving average of gold began to turn around. The strength of the bullish rise of gold weakened. The resistance of the gold moving average now moved down to the 2685-90 line. Gold rebounded in the US market and went short at highs below the 2685-90 line. Judging from the current 4-hour analysis chart, the upper side focuses on the short-term suppression of 2785-90, and the lower side focuses on the short-term support of 2658-60.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ckb6ckb6