Xauusdforecast
XAU/USD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up detailsThe Gold price (XAU/USD) surges to a new record high above $2,180 as yields on 10-year US bonds dip to 4.04% following the release of the US NFP data.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Unemployment Rate climbed to 3.9%, exceeding expectations and up from the previous 3.7%. While Nonfarm Payrolls for February surpassed projections at 275K compared to the anticipated 200K, they still fell short of the previous reading of 353K.
Expectations for inflation have cooled as Average Hourly Earnings grew slower than anticipated by market participants. Monthly wages saw a modest 0.1% increase, contrasting with the 0.6% rise in January. Investors had predicted a 0.3% growth in wage, but annual wage growth slowed to 4.3% from both expectations and the prior reading of 4.4%. January's wage growth was revised downward from 4.5%.
The combination of sluggish wage growth and a high jobless rate has intensified selling pressure on the US Dollar.
During his congressional testimony, Jerome Powell highlighted that policymakers are nearing confidence in the return of inflation to the 2% target. He acknowledged the necessity of easing the current monetary policy stance to avert an economic downturn. The rally in Gold prices suggests that investors are buoyed by Powell's slightly dovish tone, anticipating earlier rate cuts.
As we gear up for the upcoming week, this video will delve into our strategic approach to navigating the evolving market dynamics from a technical perspective.
XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the XAUUSD chart, utilizing both technical and fundamental perspectives. Our examination included an in-depth study of key levels, historical price movements, market behaviors, and the interplay between buyers and sellers, aiming to unveil potential trading opportunities.
Our focal point for the week is the $2,143.50 zone, endowed with historical significance, rendering it a pivotal level. The sustainability of bullish momentum above this zone could pave the way for continued buying pressure, potentially propelling prices to new highs. Conversely, the appearance of a reversal pattern or a breach below the $2,143.50 level, coupled with persistent selling pressure, might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.
#GoldMarket #SafeHavenAssets 📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Gold Trade Idea Gold Market Trade Idea: Descending Triangle Breakout
📉 Pattern Overview :
The descending triangle pattern is typically considered a bearish continuation pattern. It is characterized by a flat lower trendline that acts as support and a descending upper trendline that indicates lower highs. This pattern suggests that sellers are more aggressive than buyers, leading to a potential breakdown below the support level¹².
📐 Current Observation:
Gold has been forming a descending triangle, indicating a consolidation phase with a potential for a downward breakout.
💡 Trade Strategy:
Entry Point: Look for a strong break below the support level with increased volume as a confirmation of the pattern completion.
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss just above the most recent lower high within the triangle to limit potential losses.
Take Profit : Measure the height of the triangle pattern at its widest part and project this distance downward from the breakout point to estimate the take profit target¹.
📊 Risk Management:
Ensure proper risk management by not risking more than a small percentage of your trading capital on this single trade.
🔍 Keep in Mind :
While the descending triangle pattern suggests a bearish outlook, be aware of potential false breakouts. It's crucial to wait for confirmation before entering the trade.
Remember , this is a trade idea based on technical analysis patterns. Always consider the latest market news and fundamental analysis before making any trades. Happy trading!
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XAU/USD 15 March 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/bias remains unchanged from yesterday's 14/03/2024) analysis
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed a swing BOS and subsequently a bullish iBOS.
Bearish CHoCH has been printed.
We are now trading within an internal range.
As mentioned 11/03/2024, bearish CHoCH, which is the first structural indication, but not confirmation that bearish pullback is underway, will indicate pullback initiation has now been printed.
Bearish iBOS will provide confirmation that pullback is underway.
Due to the bullish nature of the market, Intraday expectation is for price to target internal high, however, all HTF's are indicating the need for a pullback, therefore, a second potential scenario could be price targeting internal low to confirm pullback is now underway.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has now printed a bearish iBOS which confirms comments made on 12 March 2024 that it would be useful to remember that all HTF's are requiring a pullback.
Price did try to target weak internal low, as per my comments made yesterda however, we saw price react at an M15 POI.
Intraday expectation is for price to react again at 50% EQ, which price is currently doing, or react in premium of 50% EQ, before targeting weak internal low.
M15 Chart:
Gold: The Timeless Asset of ChoiceIn the world of investments, gold has retained its allure through centuries as a safe haven and store of value. Its enduring appeal transcends cultures and generations, offering stability amidst economic uncertainties. As financial markets fluctuate, gold stands as a reliable hedge against inflation and geopolitical turmoil. Beyond its monetary value, gold holds cultural significance, symbolizing wealth, prosperity, and prestige. Whether in times of prosperity or crisis, gold remains a steadfast asset, providing reassurance to investors worldwide.
XAUUSD fee nowadays March 14, 2024 plummetedXAUUSD these days March 14, 2024 withinside the international became to boom once more after a consultation of decline. SJC gold bars and gold rings, after a consultation of decline, face the danger of falling similarly if the State Bank takes intervention measures. Finance Banking Gold fee these days March 14, 2024 plummeted, approximately to fall similarly? Manh Ha • Gold fee these days March 14, 2024 withinside the international became lower back up after a consultation of decline . SJC gold bars and gold rings, after a consultation of decline, face the danger of falling similarly if the State Bank takes intervention measures.
Gold fees fall earlier than statistics from the USGold charges fell 0.2% to $2,171.06 an oz, at the same time as gold futures expiring in April fell 0.3% to $2,175.35 an oz with the aid of using 01:27 ET (05:27 GMT).
Bullion charges rose to a report excessive of around $2,two hundred an oz on the begin of the week, however noticed speedy consolidation after hotter-than-anticipated patron fee index information introduced again issues approximately excessive hobby prices. . market.
The sturdy CPI analyzing indicates a shift in attention to approaching readings on PPI inflation and retail sales, due out in a while Thursday. Both are anticipated to steer the Federal Reserve`s hobby fee outlook.
The information additionally got here in advance of subsequent week's Fed meeting, in which the valuable financial institution is broadly anticipated to hold hobby prices consistent and signaled no on the spot plans to start easing policy.
A collection of Fed officers have warned that hobby fee cuts may be in large part decided with the aid of using inflation withinside the coming months.
Other valuable metals consolidated in advance of upcoming information. Platinum futures fell 0.4% to $942.forty five an oz, at the same time as silver futures had been consistent at $25,one hundred seventy an oz.
GOLD TRADE IDEAHere's a trading idea for gold, considering the 30-minute candlestick pattern and the upcoming important economic data release:
Gold Trading Idea: Navigating Economic Data Release
Observation :
- The 30-minute gold chart has formed a significant candlestick pattern, which traders should monitor closely as it may indicate potential market movements.
Strategy :
1. Entry Point: Observe the market reaction to the upcoming economic data. If the data is positive and gold breaks above the pattern, consider a long position. Conversely, if the data is negative and gold breaks below the pattern, consider a short position.
2. Stop Loss : Place a stop loss at a level that invalidates your trade hypothesis, typically beyond the pattern's extremes.
3. Take Profit: Set a take profit target that aligns with previous support or resistance levels, or use a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2.
4. Risk Management: Given the volatility expected from the data release, maintain strict risk management protocols and do not risk more than 1% of your capital on the trade.
Rationale :
- Candlestick patterns can provide insight into market sentiment and potential reversals or continuations.
- The release of significant economic data can cause heightened volatility and directional moves in the gold market.
Note :
- It's crucial to wait for the data release before entering the market, as it can significantly impact gold prices.
- Be prepared for increased volatility and ensure that your followers are aware of the risks associated with trading around economic data releases.
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This idea is based on technical analysis and should be used in conjunction with your own research and risk management strategy. Always stay informed and adjust your trades accordingly. Happy trading! 📊📈
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XAUUSD: Predictions on XAUUSD while waiting for US dataIn currency markets today, the US dollar showed little volatility as investors awaited the release of additional economic data from the United States to gauge the potential direction of Federal Reserve policy state.
After the release of a higher-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday, there were fresh concerns about persistent inflation, causing traders to reconsider whether the Fed will start cutting interest rates. capacity in June as previously predicted or not.
The possibility of an interest rate cut in June is now considered a 65% chance, down slightly from the 71% probability earlier this week, according to LSEG's interest rate probability application. Expectations for an interest rate cut in July remain high at around 83%. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at its meeting next week, but the focus will be on the central bank's updated economic forecasts.
Kyle Rodda, a senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, noted that while recent data has slightly changed interest rate expectations, the consensus has been for three rate cuts for the year. now. He added that a more hawkish stance from the Fed could reduce this expectation to two rate cuts and push the first cut to September, strengthening the US dollar.
The dollar index, a measure of the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was relatively unchanged at 102.77. Investors are closely watching US retail sales data, the producer price index (PPI) and the unemployment claims report due out later today for further signs of weakness. economic recession.
Ascending Channel Created on GOLD 5 Minute ChartBased on the recent analysis, gold prices have shown modest gains and continue to find buyers, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market. The upcoming US retail sales and producer inflation data could provide further insight into the economic outlook and influence gold prices¹.
Considering the ascending channel pattern you've observed in the 5-minute candle chart, a common trade idea would be to look for buying opportunities at the lower trend line of the channel, assuming it holds as support. Traders often expect the price to bounce back towards the upper trend line, presenting a potential profit target.
Here's a hypothetical trade setup based on the ascending channel pattern:
- Entry Point: Buy near the lower trend line of the ascending channel when a bullish reversal pattern is confirmed.
Stop Loss : Set below the recent swing low or the lower trend line to limit potential losses if the trend reverses.
Profit Target: Aim for the upper trend line of the channel or a previous high within the channel.
Remember , this is just a hypothetical trade idea and not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading. It's also important to stay updated with the latest market news and economic data releases, as they can significantly impact gold prices.
XAUUSD GOLD Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaXAUUSD GOLD has encountered a formidable resistance level. In the accompanying video, we meticulously assess various time frames, evaluating the potential for a bullish scenario. Our analysis delves into the intricacies of trend dynamics, market structure, and price action, offering insights for educational purposes exclusively. It is imperative to underscore that the information presented is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial counsel.
💡 XAUUSD: Under pressure from USDGold prices reversed sharply today after the US announced data related to inflation that was slightly higher than forecast.
Specifically, the consumer price index (CPI) in February in the US increased by 3.2%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the market expectation of an increase of 3.1%.
CPI increased slightly, making investors worry that inflation in the US may heat up. This may cause the FED to maintain high interest rates for a long time. Accordingly, they increase their holdings of USD to help this currency increase in value. Gold price today is in a disadvantageous position.
On the other hand, US bond interest rates jumped from 4%/year to 4.14%/year, motivating many people to put capital into bonds. Meaning very little money flows into precious metals. Gold prices today are under more pressure to go down
XAU/USD 12 March 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/Bias remains the same as yesterdays post dated 11/03/2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a swing BOS and subsequently a bullish iBOS.
We are now trading within a fractal high and internal low.
Expectation is for price to pullback to H4 POI and 50% EQ, both of which are located at the same position, before targeting internal high.
Bearish CHoCH, which is the first structural indication, but not confirmation that bearish pullback is underway, will indicate pullback initiation.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
-> Has reached EQ.
Price has printed a bullish swing BOS and subsequently a bullish iBOS.
Due to the size of the internal range I have plotted sub-internal structure which is denoted in red.
50% EQ of the internal range is also denoted in red.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH and bearish iCHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, that pullback is underway.
Intraday expectation is for price to continue bearish, react at M15 POI before targeting weak internal high.
However, it would be useful to remember that all HTF's are requiring a pullback.
M15 Chart:
Gold is still sideways today, CPI news will have a big impactThis morning, Gold is still moving sideways as Qua Me had determined. As for the current price and trend, Gold is still fully mixed on the Ma line from the H1 H4 and D1 frames.
> As Current Price today everyone continues to Buy GOLD around the price area 2176>2178 according to Ma89 at M30 and Ma H1
SL 2174
TP 2186>2195
As Qua I said. Today we have Strong News that Gold will most likely rise and then decrease again.
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Gold fees rose modestly as bulls took a damage amid endured sturdy charge momentum.
Metals investors wait for the week`s US records factor due out on Tuesday, that's the Consumer Price Index file for February, that's forecast to upward thrust 3.7% y/y ultimate 12 months, as compared with a 3.9% boom visible in January's file. A warming CPI may want to at the least briefly derail the bullish fashion in gold and silver.
Key outside markets see less attackable US greenback index. Nymex crude oil fees are barely weaker and buying and selling round $77.75/barrel. The yield at the benchmark 10-12 months US Treasury observe is presently round 4.08%.
Analysts at TD Securities stated Friday that they exited their tactical gold positions because the marketplace may want to face better volatility despite the fact that the uptrend stays intact.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity approach at Saxo Bank, stated that whilst he's bullish on gold, traders must be touchy to the marketplace's modern-day speculative position. He notes that those sorts of investors can opposite their positions in no time if the marketplace starts to turn.
Analysts additionally accept as true with that the gold marketplace desires to witness new investor call for if this upward momentum lasts. While speculators flock to valuable metals, traders maintain to escape gold-subsidized exchange-traded funds.
Start considering shorting gold in batchesDear friends, gold is still consolidating around 2180. From a graphic point of view, gold still maintains a bullish pattern, but relatively speaking, the bullish energy is showing signs of weakness.Then gold is likely to see a correction in the short term, and is expected to retreat again and test the strength of the long-short dividing line.
In the last article, I reminded that I would choose to be cautious in pursuing long gold in the short term. On the contrary, I would focus on shorting gold in the short term. As long as gold cannot effectively break through upward, gold will at least test around 2160 in the short term, and may even test the 2155-2150 area. So in the short term, in terms of trading, I tend to short gold gradually in batches above 2180, and I hope that today's transaction will bring us good profits.
I share detailed trading ideas and trading strategies every day. While we enjoy the trading process, profit is king. Learn from traders who maintain a 95% winning rate, and you will be able to guarantee at least an 80% winning rate. I hope that with my help, we can all make continuous profits in the market! And you can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals, trading lots, and TP and SL.
Gold may experience a correction in the short termDear friends, gold is currently consolidating near the 2078 position, and the highest price of gold last week has reached around the 2095 position. Can gold continue to rise and break through the 2095 position? Can we still go long gold in short-term trading?
Judging from the gold trend, we can find that a long-short dividing point for gold in the short term is in the 2155-2150 area. So judging from the current graphics, I think it is still too early to say that gold is going to start a major correction. At the very least, we have to wait until the 2155-2150 area is broken downwards, then gold may start a correction trend downwards. As for whether the 2195 position is the current highest point, I think it is not sure yet, but judging from the current trend, there is a peaking signal. Judging from the current trend, gold may retreat to around 2160 in the short term.
Therefore, in short-term trading, I will not continue to chase gold above 2180. Based on the current profit-loss ratio, I think it is obviously more appropriate to short gold above. So in terms of trading, I will focus on shorting gold in the short term.
I share detailed trading ideas and trading strategies every day. While we enjoy the trading process, profit is king. Learn from traders who maintain a 95% winning rate, and you will be able to guarantee at least an 80% winning rate. I hope that with my help, we can all make continuous profits in the market! And you can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals, trading lots, and TP and SL.